Strong Thai Baht Only For A Short Period

[yanga]

The annual trend for every year (except 1997) has been a simple " W " shaped graph plotted across the 12 months from January to December.

I m not sure to have seen a "W" trends each years on my USD/THB graphic. US Dollars is in a down trend since 2003 (rebound in 2008) despit the seasonnal Thai economy.

Edited March 19, 2010 by yanga

[Naam]

last i checked it was 1 dollar to 35.3 baht... a few weeks ago it was 1:32 so maybe i'm missing something

you are missing your reading glasses.

[lannarebirth]

last i checked it was 1 dollar to 35.3 baht... a few weeks ago it was 1:32 so maybe i'm missing something

I guess for the USD we are going to test the 2007 bottoms under the 30 baths.

Souce : loobiz.com/chart/us-dollar+baht

If that were a stock chart, this is about where I'd buy it. Retesting the breakout of a double bottom. Beyond that I possess a wealth of no idea.

[Naam]

edit: hmm xe.com seems to show 32 as opposed to my dashboard widget which shows over 35

your dashboard widget had a few drinks too many

[lucjoker]

Not short enough!

since 7 years,the bath (to the euro ) went up and down like a slow yoyo,

between 43 bht up to 53 bht (for 1 eu)

So nothing special about the bath !

Other currencies dropt spectacular to the bath,

not because the bath is so strong,but those currencies became

weaker and weaker ,probably something wrong in those countries ?

More than 1 brittisch friends of me told me years ago:"i keep my monney in BP,

i dont thrust TBH !I bring it over only when i need it !

Well by now they lost about half their monney ?

The smart ones didn't loose money,they won extra .

Today you change your TBHs into Euro ,you get 1 eu for every 44 bht.

Wait 4,5 or six months and change it back, you will get about 50 bht(or more) for 1 euro.

You just made a 14% profit ! No bank can give you this !

On 800 000 bht this makes 112 000 bht profit "in half a year" !

Then u put it back for 3 months and wait for your year extension ,and hup start again !

So,dont always whine ,be smart !

[Dodobird]

How short is short?

[RAZZELL]

Not short enough!

since 7 years,the bath (to the euro ) went up and down like a slow yoyo,

between 43 bht up to 53 bht (for 1 eu)

So nothing special about the bath !

Other currencies dropt spectacular to the bath,

not because the bath is so strong,but those currencies became

weaker and weaker ,probably something wrong in those countries ?

More than 1 brittisch friends of me told me years ago:"i keep my monney in BP,

i dont thrust TBH !I bring it over only when i need it !

Well by now they lost about half their monney ?

The smart ones didn't loose money,they won extra .

Today you change your TBHs into Euro ,you get 1 eu for every 44 bht.

Wait 4,5 or six months and change it back, you will get about 50 bht(or more) for 1 euro.

You just made a 14% profit ! No bank can give you this !

On 800 000 bht this makes 112 000 bht profit "in half a year" !

Then u put it back for 3 months and wait for your year extension ,and hup start again !

So,dont always whine ,be smart !

Can you lend me your crystal ball?

RAZZ

[golferchin76]

It is incredible that you folks thing the BOT can "control" the exchange rate of the baht. Economics 101 or a short course on currencies would enlighten you obviously over-inflated ideas of Thai power in that arena. The markets call the shots. Thailand and the BOT don't have enough reserves to buy and sell any quantity of currencies to cause a shift up nor down. Dream on. The answer is not Thailand's actions but the devaluation of the power currencies , The US DOLLAR and EURO, due to gross overspending and debt. Thailand, even though it too has economic woes, s just too insignificant a player in GDP, vs debt, that it has not felt the pressure against its baht. Lucky for Thailand. Your strong baht is killing my finances but that too shall pass from normal fluctuations and shifts. Thailands non-stop, head in the sand, non-competitive practices, will at some point cause loss of market share in many areas and the rise of stock in it's neighbors economy.

It is incredible that you belittled the folks in this forum with 'economics 101', and wrote that they think BOT can control the exchange rate. Should I remind you that quite a bunch in the forum are smart dudes , and that economics goes to 201 301, and other branches, as you surely know. Well but that's your choice of tone to write

True, in the end, the market calls the shots. Nonetheless, BOT 'do' have the reserve and 'can' interfere but not control the exchange rate. It had done that before, but only 'temporarily'. Whether BOT will interfere with the country exchange rate is not one man's decision, but as a reflection of businesses, politics, and many other parties' interests. You know that there is a population who benefits from weak bath, and there is a population who benefits from strong baht.

Also one thing to note. Baht seems too strong (it hurts a lot of exporters which counts more than 50% of the country's GDP), but that's my wild guess. Dollars and pounds are at all time low, yet Baht is very strong in comparison to other power currencies and 2nd tier power currencies. 1 Baht now gets you 2.79 Yen, and a year ago it was 1:2.5. Does that mean Yen's weak, but all mean no, because it is strong against many other currencies.

By the way, Baht has even surpassed Taiwan dollar's value in the first time after 1998, (I am a Taiwanese) despite the fact that Taiwan's economy power is several times that of Thailand.

The consensus amongst my group of business friends, mostly exporters and some importers, is that Baht will unfortunately remain strong. It has been strong since the crude oil rose to all time high and crashed. The 'hot money' is at work here. No one in my jewelry business circle had imagined silver and gold would go up to the current level, and those prices has been climbing since 5-6 years ago. Many thought gold would top at 500 US dollars/ounce at most....

Basically, if memory serves me right, current Baht's strength is in relative to Chinese Yuan's strength. For years Yuan was stubborn to evaluate against power currencies. A few yrs ago it started a steady climb, although very very slow, in relative to dollar's value. (That was a long time after Baht climbed already) We did worry and predict that if it happens that Yuan starts to rise, Baht would follow suit and become even stronger. And it DID! Worse case senario at work here. Our company lost close to a hundred millions of Baht in exchange (1:34.5 vs 1:32) before we had to call for quotation changes. And we all know that's difficult and our items became more pricey. All export businesses, small to large, suffered for that. You can blame 'hot money' as one of the many devils here. Thailand still attract great FDI annually, and money just kept pouring into the local industrial areas and stock market.

My imagination: Thailand can't afford to own a weak baht no more. Do not imagine it will go to 1 dollar to 34 Baht, even if dollars regains its strength. If Baht is weak, immediately energy & import material prices in all sectors will shoot up another 10 percent. 10 percent will reflect several times in manufacturing and distribution of common goods' prices, and therefore we will see 20-30 percent of price climb in them. (products get transported many times until they reach consumers' hands, and the raw materials and energy required to produce them)

When was the last time I ate a bowl of 15 baht of noodle? It was before oil started to get expensive, and I think that was 6 or 7 years ago. It starts at 25 baht now, larger bowl but smaller portion too, to fool you. The burgers come with tiny little beef slices. Luckily, fried chickens don't get smaller because chickens don't grow small, hence their prices shot up! 6 yrs does not justify the 70% increase of food price, right?

I guess the goal here is to try to maintain a slow climbing rate of cost of living as slow as possible, at the expense of export and travel business. The government's hands' full and knee deep in **** to maintain civil stability. I don't think Baht would devalue until export and travel businesses go to ****.

A foreign investor looking to invest in Asia for cheap labor, would be 'lured' to Thailand in comparison to other ASEAN countries due to several factors. 1. land of smile, women are great, lol. 2. great industrial complexes near deep sea port. 3. Great infrastructure in relation to neighboring countries. 4. Political stability, forget the red/yellow thing. At least this is democratic country not dictatorship or communist style like all the neighboring countries.

and for that you are right, the market calls the shot. The market is still here.

Edited March 19, 2010 by golferchin76

[chiang mai]

It is incredible that you folks thing the BOT can "control" the exchange rate of the baht. Economics 101 or a short course on currencies would enlighten you obviously over-inflated ideas of Thai power in that arena. The markets call the shots. Thailand and the BOT don't have enough reserves to buy and sell any quantity of currencies to cause a shift up nor down. Dream on. The answer is not Thailand's actions but the devaluation of the power currencies , The US DOLLAR and EURO, due to gross overspending and debt. Thailand, even though it too has economic woes, s just too insignificant a player in GDP, vs debt, that it has not felt the pressure against its baht. Lucky for Thailand. Your strong baht is killing my finances but that too shall pass from normal fluctuations and shifts. Thailands non-stop, head in the sand, non-competitive practices, will at some point cause loss of market share in many areas and the rise of stock in it's neighbors economy.

You simply don't understand that the BOT has been intervening to weaken their currency and this is easily within their capabilities - but regardless, your post is far too arrogant to warrant any further explanation from me on this subject.

[golferchin76]

If that were a stock chart, this is about where I'd buy it. Retesting the breakout of a double bottom. Beyond that I possess a wealth of no idea.

Don't even try to own dollars now. The country's still in huge debt, especially after the stimulus plan.

Own Yuan, Yen, Baht, Euro, whatever. Forget about dollars, you will thank me for that.

[Naam]

It is incredible that you folks thing the BOT can "control" the exchange rate of the baht. Economics 101 or a short course on currencies would enlighten you obviously over-inflated ideas of Thai power in that arena. The markets call the shots. Thailand and the BOT don't have enough reserves to buy and sell any quantity of currencies to cause a shift up nor down. Dream on. The answer is not Thailand's actions but the devaluation of the power currencies , The US DOLLAR and EURO, due to gross overspending and debt. Thailand, even though it too has economic woes, s just too insignificant a player in GDP, vs debt, that it has not felt the pressure against its baht. Lucky for Thailand. Your strong baht is killing my finances but that too shall pass from normal fluctuations and shifts. Thailands non-stop, head in the sand, non-competitive practices, will at some point cause loss of market share in many areas and the rise of stock in it's neighbors economy.

You simply don't understand that the BOT has been intervening to weaken their currency and this is easily within their capabilities - but regardless, your post is far too arrogant to warrant any further explanation from me on this subject.

seconded! but perhaps some basics are warranted to enlighten "Bellagrego"? for example that the BoT does not use any reserves but Thai Baht to buy Dollars and that to prevent the Baht from appreciating too much and too fast.

[tharae]

In the first quarter alone, exports look set to grow 20 per cent to US$40 billion (Bt1.29 trillion).

However, she admitted export growth could slow in the second quarter if the baht remained too strong for long, because it would create problems for exporters trying to do business.

I've watched the seasonal swings in the exchange rates for more than a decade, and if TV would relax it's rules about linking to other sites, I could link to articles I had published about it back in 2002-4 to support what I say next.

Her statement about the Q1 and Q2 differences is no more than a reporting of what has happened EVERY year since 1998, and did prior to 1997 - 1997 was an unusual year that culminated in the Asian Financial crisis.

The exchange rate trends come from two very simple factors that still remain stronger than they should do -

Q1 rates cause the Baht to rise in strength because of -

a - the winter rice harvest and the glut of export availability in Q1. By Q2, the stockpiles are reducing and the new harvest is still growing ready for the summer harvest, therefore not yet available to prop up the currency.

b - the winter is the tourism high season for Thailand, and the millions of arrivals are causing the Baht to have higher than normal volumes purchased in other currencies - both pre-travel, as well as on tourist-arrival and whilst here.

The annual trend for every year (except 1997) has been a simple " W " shaped graph plotted across the 12 months from January to December.

i.e. The Baht is strongest in January and gradually declines until late May / early June. It then strengthens again until mid August, when it again weakens through to mid-October, before rising again through to the end of the year. Plot it out - that creates a W shape line.

The amazing thing is that this W also mirrors the monthly tourist arrivals figures, displaying that tourism has a disproportionate effect on the exchange rate in comparison to its percentage of GDP and GNP - remember rice is still Thailand's highest grossing physical export, and that the two prime harvests (which vary slightly from province to province) are January and July. Combination of the two - inbound tourism and rice exports - cause massive requirements for Baht on the part of the tourists, overseas tourism agencies, and rice buyers. This drives the two peaks which occur at the same time.

This year I expect the W to be flatter than normal due to both the pressure on rice prices and global travel caused by exchange rates and the global economic pressures from the US-led recession of 2008, but it will still have a W shape to it as both rice and tourism are still the strongest demand factors on the Baht, and they remain seasonal exports.

As I said, her statement of Q2 exports being slower than Q1 is not a prediction, it is a trend statement based on decades of same-same performance.

It's basically a "No sh1t Sherlock" utterance, yet she will receive massive kudos for it from the Thai population and pundits.

T.I.T.

That sounds like a no-bulls, sensible explanation that can even be comprehended by the non-economist (like moi). Thank you for this clear, non-jargon analysis. Not sure if all the 'experts' will agree with you but I can follow your logic and hence think there is some merit in it.

All very entertaining.

The Macro ecomonics perspective confirms that western (proped up) currencies have fallen against the developing countries over the last 30 -40 years, as they have developed. So we'll all have to get used to a higher value Baht. Notwithstanding the fact the fact the Thai Government has been buying baht to maintain some consistency.

[ray23]

I didnot know this thread was here and started one in general what has been moderated as same topic so I will simply copy and poste what i had said in other thread Thank You.

I was reading the Nation today and an article that interested me was about the baht being strong for the short term.

I am not sure if it will be short term.

They gave an example . The rice in Vietnam . I will quote a short part of the article that helps explain.

Vietnamese rice is much cheaper than Thai rice, by $80 to $100 per tonne. Vietnam's dong is 8-per-cent weaker than the baht. Thailand will definitely lose export share in many countries that unquote

In this senario I can see the thai boughts strengh as a plus.

If the baht is strong and the rice is cheap in Vietnam I feel the Thais can purchase the majority of Vietnam rice at a premium price.. Then resell the rice to other nations that are dependent on rice or have a market for rice Thailand if possible gets trade agreement for Vietnam rice. The competitiveness of the lower dong in the rice market is no longer a problem to Thailand but an advantage.

There are many advantages to Vietnam in this too. Quaranteed buyer at premium price. Easy transport of goods.Dealing in Asian markets good for investments.Dealing in Asian money. Possibly quick payment for goods due to the fact delivery time is so quick.

Good Theory but so far they haven't completed an auction, bids were not high enough. Why buy from Thailand if you can buy from Vietnam in the first place. Just a thought.

The strength of the baht has been an issue for four years now.

[lovelomsak]

I didnot know this thread was here and started one in general what has been moderated as same topic so I will simply copy and poste what i had said in other thread Thank You.

I was reading the Nation today and an article that interested me was about the baht being strong for the short term.

I am not sure if it will be short term.

They gave an example . The rice in Vietnam . I will quote a short part of the article that helps explain.

Vietnamese rice is much cheaper than Thai rice, by $80 to $100 per tonne. Vietnam's dong is 8-per-cent weaker than the baht. Thailand will definitely lose export share in many countries that unquote

In this senario I can see the thai boughts strengh as a plus.

If the baht is strong and the rice is cheap in Vietnam I feel the Thais can purchase the majority of Vietnam rice at a premium price.. Then resell the rice to other nations that are dependent on rice or have a market for rice Thailand if possible gets trade agreement for Vietnam rice. The competitiveness of the lower dong in the rice market is no longer a problem to Thailand but an advantage.

There are many advantages to Vietnam in this too. Quaranteed buyer at premium price. Easy transport of goods.Dealing in Asian markets good for investments.Dealing in Asian money. Possibly quick payment for goods due to the fact delivery time is so quick.

Good Theory but so far they haven't completed an auction, bids were not high enough. Why buy from Thailand if you can buy from Vietnam in the first place. Just a thought.

The strength of the baht has been an issue for four years now.

Why should Vietnam sell to others if with favorable exchange rates the Thai price is better ,quaranteed and transportation costs are cheap and quick.

[ray23]

I have no idea what you are trying to say.

Why would Vietnam sell to someone else, money I suppose.

You have really lost me on this one.

The lack of water may cause Thailand to buy rice, but they are an exporter's not an importer's of rice.

Have you followed this at all. Thailand lost deals last year to several other countries that were awarded to Vietnam.

Like I said it's a good theory. They indicate that there exports have increased this year. But, it doesn't seem to be in rice.

Wonder what it really was in?

Can the BOT control the value of the baht, yes I believe they can to some degree. You may recall they set tough controls on taking money out of Thailand at one point and the investments slowed. Of course that built a huge cash reserve. To fight that they eased the controls assuming the money would be invested else where by Thai's. Doesn't seem to be going that way does it?

Chasing the dollar hurt them big time in 97. They are in a tough situation really on this one. Keeping the cost of exports down to keep an economy moving is important Seems to have worked well for China.

So where is that point that makes Thailand less attractive to buy from because of he currency exchange. If you ask the business people we have already hit that point. Ask the stock broker we have a long ways to go.

Ask the farrang living here on a fixed income we have been in trouble for years.

Tourist depends on who you ask for a lot Westerners yes, for local countries probably no since they don't pay huge air fares to get here.

So can they dictate control, sure they can fix the rate just as China has done. Will they do that highly unlikely. The average Thai may not be benefiting from all this. But rest assured someone is.

It's been an amazing thing having watched this for four years now. The baht is bullet proof. No matter what happens it just gets stronger. It really defies all logic.

Me I'm not complaining by dollar may be worth less but my baht is worth more hard to lose when things go that way.

The thing I look at is what can I buy with my money, it is less then what I could purchase four years ago. A track home in Udon selling for over $100K. That is serious inflation. Since I bought a track home in the same estate for $37K four years ago.

How many baht does it take to fill fuel tank up today. Oil is at roughly $81 It is considerably more today then four years ago.

Imported food are through the roof. Everything is going up including the baht. Everything except income therein lies the real problem.

Skipping us how has a strong baht helped he Issan Farmer, or the construction workers, the business people have been complaining for years. So where is that strong really benefiting Thailand. I don't know, you see getting straight answers here is pretty difficult thing to accomplish. Not going to find in the news. Not at all unusual to see conflicting stories on the same day in the same paper.

In following this I have read posts from people who were economist. They couldn't understand what is happening, so I'm not going to begin to say I understand it. But I do understand what is happening to the average person and it ain't good.

I'm OK for one reason I was established before this all hit. But I wouldn't want to start out again here as I did, under the current circumstances. Thailand has been good to me, I don't know about the new people coming to retire.

[Nuchanart]

"Strong baht is only for the near term"

How can she tell the future?

Stupid forex speculator.

[roamer]

The vision expressed here could build a tunnel to Europe. None so blind as those that will not see. Good luck.

[craigt3365]

If that were a stock chart, this is about where I'd buy it. Retesting the breakout of a double bottom. Beyond that I possess a wealth of no idea.

Don't even try to own dollars now. The country's still in huge debt, especially after the stimulus plan.

Own Yuan, Yen, Baht, Euro, whatever. Forget about dollars, you will thank me for that.

I don't think so. The Euro is in trouble (hard to fix with no central treasury), Japan's economy is a shambles (still scratch my head as to why the Yen is so strong), China is a bubble waiting to burst (property adds at least 10% to the entire countries revenues!)...no good safe haven right now. That is why the dollar is still king. The US is in debt for sure, but it is also the largest economy in the world. And has a growing population. Not a good time for most of us!

[Abrak]

BOT does control the Baht.

BOT does indeed control the baht but not the FOREX internationally.... Let's not forget what the baht shore-up attempt in 1997 led to (BRING IT ON!!!!)

1997 was a different animal as there were frantic efforts to avoid a devaluation of the Baht by using and depleting hard currency reserves. what the BoT does is actually weakening the Baht buy selling Baht and buying dollars. for that procedure "reserves" are not used up but built up! take a look how Thailand's dollar reserves virtually exploded during the last 15 months. without that intervention the Baht would have appreciated even more.

Actually Naam I think the key is the BoT bonds which is the baht short. Out of interest when do reckon it became virtually a one way bet. Or just take a guess. How much baht short would you really know you were onto a winner?

[Naam]

BOT does control the Baht.

BOT does indeed control the baht but not the FOREX internationally.... Let's not forget what the baht shore-up attempt in 1997 led to (BRING IT ON!!!!)

1997 was a different animal as there were frantic efforts to avoid a devaluation of the Baht by using and depleting hard currency reserves. what the BoT does is actually weakening the Baht buy selling Baht and buying dollars. for that procedure "reserves" are not used up but built up! take a look how Thailand's dollar reserves virtually exploded during the last 15 months. without that intervention the Baht would have appreciated even more.

Actually Naam I think the key is the BoT bonds which is the baht short. Out of interest when do reckon it became virtually a one way bet. Or just take a guess. How much baht short would you really know you were onto a winner?

Abrak have mercy! rephrase and use simple grammar. you are aware that english is my third language and this must be the reason that i have no idea what your question means.

[christensen]

I think the government bought stocks this week to perpetuate the myth that all is well in the Kingdom. Probably used the money normally used to stabilize the Baht. It depends on what set of criminals are running the show when it comes to economic priorities. The government thinks everybody is not as smart as they are and no one would not see through the manipulation and bs press releases.

I think it went even further Korn invited foreign friends to a sellout in Bangkok for the tourmoilperiod so they later can dump the rubberprices.

[jay1980]

Last week I moved £30,000 GBP to my Thai Baht account at a rate of 48.77438. I always seem to get the market wrong so I am expecting to see a movement in favor of the pound soon

[phomsanuk]

Thailand has strong reserves, and that tends to prop up currencies. However, it has political uncertainty and neighbors who are become more attractive for FDI, and those tend to drive down currencies.

With weakening of the dollar, pound, and euro, the baht has gained against them. But against the yen and yuan, it has weakened a little. But it probably should still be a little weaker yet when future economic viability is considered.

The baht is where it is because the major currencies are weakening, has little to do with BOT or rice where Vietnam competes with lower production costs.

[hardy1943]

Not short enough!

Lets blame that on the RED SHIRTS too.

[hardy1943]

Thailand has strong reserves, and that tends to prop up currencies. However, it has political uncertainty and neighbors who are become more attractive for FDI, and those tend to drive down currencies.

With weakening of the dollar, pound, and euro, the baht has gained against them. But against the yen and yuan, it has weakened a little. But it probably should still be a little weaker yet when future economic viability is considered.

The baht is where it is because the major currencies are weakening, has little to do with BOT or rice where Vietnam competes with lower production costs.

The US$ index is at 80.74 the same as it was last year in July,

the low was Dec 1 2009 at 74.10 It make a different in the exchange rate with the Euro and the Pound but has never made any sense with the Thai Baht.You figure???

[lovelomsak]

When I look at a strong baht I donot ask how does it stay strong? I ask why is it strong? When i question why I look from present to future. Not past to present to future. Please keep that in perspective when reading. The past is the past. Donot over think.

Ok now what is the advantage of a strong baht, being the strongest Asain currency? Could it be when dealing in the Asian market the baht becomes the one desirable? When asians are dealing in baht in the future perhaps they will consider it as the trading currency.If Thailand can maintain a strong consistant currency through these times maybe that tells the world something about there financial skills.

Now as far as trade goes with Thailand with a strong baht can buy more goods from neighbouring countries.That would be nice for trade all around yes most would think. Now how does this apply to rice we say. Let me see if i can explain this so there will be little question in most people minds.

Say a country like Vietnam for instance wants to sell rice to the world. They want their best price and low costs for greater profits which is smart business yes. They can sell to anyone they please. The buyer can do what they want after they own it right. So Thailand now (remember now not last year or the year before) has a strong baht. Not only strong but can be used efficiently and easily with all neighbouring asian countries. Thailand can pay good value price because of the strength of the baht. With that baht the Vietnameses can buy Thai goods without currency exchange costs or worries. The Thais donot even have to receive the rice in Thailand they can sell to the rest of the world and ship direct from Vietnam. I know everyone says why doesnot Vietnam keep selling to the other countries themselves? Good question.I would like to think with the currency exchange Thailand maybe able to actually compete agressively purchasing. Without Vietnam needing to compromise on selling price. If Vietnam still receives good value for rice receives a currency they can quickly use or hold with no fear. A baht is a baht.

Ok so now Thailand has a strong baht. It can purchase rice from its strongest rice growing competitor. But it must sell the rice competitively to the rest of the world and not embarrass Vietnam for selling to Thailand. Should not be too difficult with $80 to $100 dollars american a tonne being the exchange difference.

The really good part about Thailands Strong baht. Neighbouring countries will benefit lot from trade.

I look at Canada and the USA for years everyone dealt with USA not Canada. Why because their dollar was strong and Canadas wasnot. Canada had to trade with Japan and USA few other countries contributed to Canadas trade. I believe at one time 85% of Canadian trade was with Usa. ( I know I said present to future only but this is just an example from the past that these things do happen.) Ever hear of Nafta?

Anyways now everyone can tear this apart.

It will probably get buried quickly with other posts anyways.

[lannarebirth]

^ Isn't rice sold internationally in $USD's?

[lovelomsak]

^ Isn't rice sold internationally in $USD's?

Yes I think it is but is asian to asian international ? After sales would defintely be american dollars

[ray23]

If the BOT can't effect the value of the baht, why do we statements from the F/M calling on them to act to weaken the baht?

Why would see things like this if they can not manipulate the baht. Bot am I confused you guys told me they can't do things like this. When in fact over the past four years I have dozen of articles like this.

Of course it's Thai news and you know how I feel about that. Oh that's right Bloomberg and other International News ran similar stories a well. Buy was I lucky to find how simple this really is. I feel better now that I know they can't manipulate the baht rate in Thailand.

Baht strongest in 22 months

BANGKOK, 20 March 2010 (NNT) – Kasikorn Thai Research Center has reported that during 15-19 March 2010 the Baht value was its strongest in 22 months.

As reported, Baht value was close to 32.25/ USD. The key factors to support the strong Thai baht was the inflow of foreign investment into Thai stocks despite the peaceful rally of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). The weakness of US dollar was another constraint of such investment inflow. Meanwhile, there were some purchases of US dollar, which might be a measure of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to slow down Baht strength for the currency stability. Baht value on Friday remained at 32.30 from 32.54/USD.

Next week, the currency has been forecasted to move in a frame of 32.10-32.50 per US dollar, with impacts expected from the following factors; the UDD's rally situation, the results of BoT in Baht stability control, the direction of other currencies and stocks in the region. The move of US dollar will depend on the conclusion in assisting Greece from its financial crisis, and other important economic figures in the United States.

Now what does that mean stability control if it does not include manipulation?

The reality they have stepped many many times in the past four years.

That means they can do it either direction, in the past four years it is my belief that they have done just that. Right now they are trying to weaken within the range they set.

Just because the Euro and the Pound are taking hits now. Does not mean this issue doesn't have history that goes beyond that.

Think about the time the baht had a two rate system one here in Thailand and one outside. Really wasn't that long ago.

I think some of you need to look at the past four years of history in this subject.

Ok guys it easy fill in the gaps between these two articles and you will have much better idea of just how active the BOT is in this country. Now me I have read those articles.

Kasikorn Research Center : Baht will stay strong

The baht is likely to move within the range of 37.10 to 37.60 baht against the US dollar this week compared with 37.34 per dollar during late trade on Friday, according to a report issued by the Kasikorn Research Centre.

At mid-morning, the baht was quoted at 37.57 per dollar on international currency markets.

The report said the baht could strengthen this week due to the lack of positive factors to support the US dollar, and that traders are less worried now regarding a further hike in the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve Bank.

Traders are also awaiting new factors to stimulate trade apart from key US economic data--including housing sales and purchase orders for durable goods, it said, adding that the strengthening of the baht could be limited due to an intervention by the Bank of Thailand (BoT).

Several negative factors had hit the strong baht last week, the report said. They included a market intervention by the BoT to keep the baht from being too strong and strong dollar profit-taking by exporters.

The central bank said that it had intervened in the market after finding that the local currency was too strong. The baht edged down late last week, unlike the Japanese yen and other regional currencies which strengthened on the back of US inflation.

However, the baht rose later following an interest rate hike by the Chinese central bank which helped pushed up the yen and the local currency.

News ID: 254908200016

Reporter :

News Date : 20 August 2006

Edited March 20, 2010 by ray23

[asiawatcher]

It is incredible that you folks thing the BOT can "control" the exchange rate of the baht. Economics 101 or a short course on currencies would enlighten you obviously over-inflated ideas of Thai power in that arena. The markets call the shots. Thailand and the BOT don't have enough reserves to buy and sell any quantity of currencies to cause a shift up nor down. Dream on. The answer is not Thailand's actions but the devaluation of the power currencies , The US DOLLAR and EURO, due to gross overspending and debt. Thailand, even though it too has economic woes, s just too insignificant a player in GDP, vs debt, that it has not felt the pressure against its baht. Lucky for Thailand. Your strong baht is killing my finances but that too shall pass from normal fluctuations and shifts. Thailands non-stop, head in the sand, non-competitive practices, will at some point cause loss of market share in many areas and the rise of stock in it's neighbors economy.

... and hopefully weaken the Baht ...