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Red Shirts To March On Bangkok Streets Again


webfact

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There is ALWAYS a logic to any coup anywhere.

If it doesn't meet your expectations of validity, this should not surprise.

But to expect people, especially trained military types to overthrow a government,

without some logical reasoning that THEY at least comprehend, is a stretch too far.

There MUST be some argument tnat makes push come to shove in these 95% of these cases.

Sure some rare times a colonel or lower ranked officer gets his toes stepped on and attempts

to start an insurrection to save his ass, but that is a rare instance.And typically get put down fast.

I just don't see much logical reason to have one except from the Thaksin side of things.

He tried in the past to install his own generals, and Abhisit is not, so the army would much

more likely support, the one not rocking the boat, and not trying to put them out of a job to install his cousins.

This isn't supporting coups, just noting why one tonight seems totally illogical.

I agree with you but we are in Asia. They are not thinking always as us westerners. I can see the possibility of some scenarios based on the deadlocks and the risks of blood shed for justifying a coup. During the several days spent in the Barracks, Abhisit should have prepared some kind of strategy in coordination with Army, sure they have analysed and weighted several scenarios. Wait and see for the output.

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OK fine . Here possible cenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party paid by Thaksin defects to the PTP .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If have election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose same Thaksin out .

But you say no need for election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Might have a coup at any of those points

Good ?

If the PTP get into government, they would most likely try and bring Thaksin back. As soon as they tried to squash his conviction or give his money back, there would be a coup (mainly because there WOULD be a million people protesting).

So the choice becomes Thaksin or coup. Neither good for the country.

Not really . If they win general elections without Thaksin , they dont need Thaksin .

Do you think they are idiots ?

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It's hard to be on the side that's losing. Particularly when you care if people think you have credibility.

You've been so far up Thaksin's ass for years now that it must sting mightily that a non corrupt leader might move this country forward. Yeah. when Thaksin scored some points we'd see you on your hands, moth pursed, and knees bent before him. When he said things no one on Earth could defend you'd take a step back and for just a micro second keep your stupid fuc_king mouth shut. It must be wonderful to be as bloodthirsty as you and have absolutely none of your own skin in trhe game. What a fuc_king pussy. I'd love to know your details so I could say the same to your face. asshol_e.

The sad thing is that we sit here debating whether Thaksin was better or worse than some or others, when the real manipulators could run 100 tanks into town and reset the clock for the 18th time and no one, and I mean literally no one would have any recourse to complain.

Abhisit is probably the cleanest PM this country has had, but also one of the most privileged. That isn't in any way a good reflection on the myriad of democratically elected or army appointed sleaze that has come before. There is the odd one or two who can be talked of as having the country's best interests at heart, but they are few and their motivation is also debatable.

The best thing about Abhisit is that he could actually return after a coup.

Abhisit's biggest weakness is the need to have army approval as was all PM's cross to bear.

I think alot of people debate as persons who perhaps have never employed or worked with "country" people. I'll tell you honestly, they're the only people I can even stand to hang around for more than 30 minutes. Just can't stand "upper class " Thais "for the most part". That said, most of ther country people I've met are not terribly bright. I'm glad there are people like Abhisit that have an egalitarian view about Thai society that are seeing to their interests.

Having spent the vast majority of my professional career in Thailand trying to make export crops more valuable for the farmers, I can see why they are pissed off. Products get better but the middle man wins year on year.

Thai farmers are some of the toughest and most resourceful people I have met, having worked in all the continents in agricultural development. Abhisit is trying, but I would also offer to take him with me to Surin next week on crop survey. Maybe I will call up a couple of my mates who went to school with him and see if he is free.

I laugh sitting in meetings with the "knowledgeable gentry' in Bangkok when people tell me where they went to school or university in the UK as though I am meant to be impressed. What they don't understand is that name dropping is so low class.

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Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.

Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Not good to insult the people.

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.

Same in USA when they expelled the British.

France a proud nation, haha

Without the allies you would all be Germans

But since you only refer to 1700's and not 1900's

I can see how you relate to Thaksin Napoleon Shina-part

Two alleged great leaders spending their greying days

in exile

You would all be speaking german if it wasnt for us brits and yanks and yes thailand that includes you as i doubt japan would have been around long

Yes and if not for the french , the US would still be a british colony .

And if not for the US , Thailand would speak Japanese .

That has no end LOL

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OK fine . Here one possible scenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose

, same Thaksin out .

Same same and good .

But you say no need for general election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Of course probably a coup at any of those points

Good ?

I think you misunderstand.

Chavalit is the head of the PTP. I'll grant you that mistake.

To your next point. If all of the coalition partners switched alliances it would not be the end the government immediately. First there would have to be a motion for a no confidence vote. Once accepted, there would be debate in parliament and the opposition would make their case. Then the Dems would have the opportunity to defend themselves. After some back and forth and not until all who wish to speak on the matter have had the opportunity to do so, within reason, the speaker (Chai) would call the vote. If the majority of parliament (it could be 2/3, but I think a simple majority may be enough in Thailand) vote that the Dems have lost the mandate to govern then the Dems would have to step down. A caretaker government would be established and new elections would be held as soon as possible.

Edited by way2muchcoffee
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Well as I stated earlier, if for example Newin's voters are p*****d off at his conduct they won't vote for him or his bumjaithai colleagues

If I was PPP, I would put millions of baht at the disposal of their candidates in all of his candidates areas and take great pleasure in smashing his candidates to smithereens. Of course if that didn't happen, what would the people who claim that the PPP/TRT always buy votes have to say? What a conundrum.

If nothing else it will be an interesting election (presuming we get to that point and the tanks don't roll before) in which case it will be an even more interesting election under another new constitution.

The problem with your argument is that Newin's voters have proved time and time again that they will vote for his proxies no matter what party they are standing for.

And the bit about the PTP (the PPP are no more), going in to his strong hold and buying the voters is a little naive. We're not talking about someone who will say "mai pen rai, baw pen yung, arai gaw dai, cest la vie, que sera sera, whatever..." (to mix a few languages) and walk away, we're talking about an extremely nasty character, with some extremely nasty hired help, who would not be averse to using said hired help to blow away anyone trying to buy his voters.

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OK fine . Here one possible scenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose

, same Thaksin out .

Same same and good .

But you say no need for general election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Of course probably a coup at any of those points

Good ?

I think you misunderstand.

Chavalit is the head of the PTP. I'll grant you that mistake.

To your next point. If all of the coalition partners switched alliances it would not be the end the government immediately. First there would have to be a motion for a no confidence vote. Once accepted, there would be debate in parliament and the opposition would make their case. Then the Dems would have the opportunity to defend themselves. After some back and forth and not until all who wish to speak on the matter have had the opportunity to do so the speaker (Chai) would call the vote. If the majority of parliament (it could be 2/3, but I think a simple majority may be enough in Thailand) vote that the Dems have lost the mandate to govern then the Dems would have to step down. A caretaker government would be established and new elections would be held as soon as possible.

Ooops , i missed that point LOL . Chavalit has been around for quite long , got confused with his latest political party

Oh ok ... well sounds bit more safe

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Well as I stated earlier, if for example Newin's voters are p*****d off at his conduct they won't vote for him or his bumjaithai colleagues

If I was PPP, I would put millions of baht at the disposal of their candidates in all of his candidates areas and take great pleasure in smashing his candidates to smithereens. Of course if that didn't happen, what would the people who claim that the PPP/TRT always buy votes have to say? What a conundrum.

If nothing else it will be an interesting election (presuming we get to that point and the tanks don't roll before) in which case it will be an even more interesting election under another new constitution.

The problem with your argument is that Newin's voters have proved time and time again that they will vote for his proxies no matter what party they are standing for.

And the bit about the PTP (the PPP are no more), going in to his strong hold and buying the voters is a little naive. We're not talking about someone who will say "mai pen rai, baw pen yung, arai gaw dai, cest la vie, que sera sera, whatever..." (to mix a few languages) and walk away, we're talking about an extremely nasty character, with some extremely nasty hired help, who would not be averse to using said hired help to blow away anyone trying to buy his voters.

So where does that leave the accusation that in the rural areas parties buy votes? Presumably, if Thaksin wanted to smash Newin's vote all he would have to do is write blank cheques and buy it? That is playing devils advocate, but it suggests as Hammered mentioned earlier, there is a stronger tie than just money. Then I would suggest that the main parties grow up and consistently show some cojones and leave Bumjaithai prostitute ass in opposition next time. Starve the beggars out.

It isn't as though Newin can threaten whole constituencies with assassination if they don't vote for him. As for PPP/PTP/TRT apologies, I forget that this is the land of sequels when it comes to political parties. They are worse than the hydra, you cut off one head and two come back but with a different set of initials. Too many t's and nationalistic p's.

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A UDD website is continually reporting that soldiers have been "tightening the red shirts stage." This within the past 25 minutes.

Can't verify this, but again from one of their sites, that "300 soldiers occupied the Parliament without the House Speaker's knowledge preventing MPs from coming in the building. Pueathai Party has just announced!"

Don't know if it's just reactionisms from UDD or more propaganda to entice people people to come and support the red cause.

Interesting. "A UDD website is continually reporting that soldiers have been "tightening the red shirts stage.""

Moving in closer? For what purpose? Also the unannouced occupation of Parliament House. I wonder if these military manoeuvres are a prelude to something bigger. A coup tonight?

I'm not sure. According to this site, they (UDD) have been contacting foreign media such as the BBC, CNN, etc. They are twittering Bangkokians to come and help them since they feel they are now in danger from the military (about a minute ago). Reactionaries? Propaganda? I'm not sure.

For sure the military's going to crackdown on the Red-Shirts. It's goin' to really kick-off very soon.

A coup. Very much on the cards some time tonight.

MPs unaware of developments and prevented from goin' about their business. Speaks volumes about who's really in charge of things!

I think you're falling for red propaganda mate. Thaksin is desperate to shore up support and is yet again using coup rumours to do it.

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Not really . If they win general elections without Thaksin , they dont need Thaksin .

Do you think they are idiots ?

Thaksin will fund their elections. They won't be able to get rid of him.

They're not idiots. They know where the money is coming from.

Well , there you might have a point .

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OK fine . Here one possible scenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose

, same Thaksin out .

Same same and good .

But you say no need for general election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Of course probably a coup at any of those points

Good ?

I think you misunderstand.

Chavalit is the head of the PTP. I'll grant you that mistake.

To your next point. If all of the coalition partners switched alliances it would not be the end the government immediately. First there would have to be a motion for a no confidence vote. Once accepted, there would be debate in parliament and the opposition would make their case. Then the Dems would have the opportunity to defend themselves. After some back and forth and not until all who wish to speak on the matter have had the opportunity to do so the speaker (Chai) would call the vote. If the majority of parliament (it could be 2/3, but I think a simple majority may be enough in Thailand) vote that the Dems have lost the mandate to govern then the Dems would have to step down. A caretaker government would be established and new elections would be held as soon as possible.

Ooops , i missed that point LOL . Chavalit has been around for quite long , got confused with his latest political party

Oh ok ... well sounds bit more safe

I could be mistaken, but that is my understanding. There may be an opportunity to form a government before an election would be called. I would welcome anyone to come along and correct any mistakes I have made.

Edited by way2muchcoffee
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I said COULD , not WILL . Please ... .

Yes everywhere in the wolrld is like Australia , a MP can disagree with his party on some particular piece

of legislation and vote against it . Why not ? Here it is not the same case .

But that's what I'm trying to explain. It is basically the same case. They use the same system as Australia and UK.

Could ... will ... whatever ... the point is, if the government COULD fall every 10 days, then using your logic, you COULD have elections every 10 days instead.

OK fine . Here one possible scenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose

, same Thaksin out .

Same same and good .

But you say no need for election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Might have a coup at any of those points

Good ?

Well other than the fact Chavalit is ALREADY in PTP and so won't defect to PTP...

He was totally sillent all week, and then springs into action alleging his great mediator skills.

But Prem staff says he was too sick to see him,

until Chavalit reports this publicly,

and then Prems people say, 'what is he talking about'.

Oops. Can't even get into the office...

And he is NOW trying to talk OTHER parties into defecting... wonderful mediation efforts.

Look the boss offers more money!!! He told me so!!!

Edited by animatic
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OK fine . Here one possible scenario

1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .

2) PTP comes in power right ?

3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose

, same Thaksin out .

Same same and good .

But you say no need for general election right , so no election ok fine

4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin

4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Of course probably a coup at any of those points

Good ?

I think you misunderstand.

Chavalit is the head of the PTP. I'll grant you that mistake.

To your next point. If all of the coalition partners switched alliances it would not be the end the government immediately. First there would have to be a motion for a no confidence vote. Once accepted, there would be debate in parliament and the opposition would make their case. Then the Dems would have the opportunity to defend themselves. After some back and forth and not until all who wish to speak on the matter have had the opportunity to do so the speaker (Chai) would call the vote. If the majority of parliament (it could be 2/3, but I think a simple majority may be enough in Thailand) vote that the Dems have lost the mandate to govern then the Dems would have to step down. A caretaker government would be established and new elections would be held as soon as possible.

Ooops , i missed that point LOL . Chavalit has been around for quite long , got confused with his latest political party

Oh ok ... well sounds bit more safe

I could be mistaken, but that is my understanding. There may be an opportunity to form a government before an election would be called. I would welcome anyone to come along and correct any mistakes I have made.

On October 2, 2009, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh joined the Pheu Thai Party. He insists he will be a regular member until the party's executives consider a future role for him.[8]

You are right .... :)

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But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

I wouldn't think so. Please explain your reasoning.

As everybody supposes, Chavalt is negotiating with some small parties and may destroy the coalition by finding some allies for taking over the Parliament. The "elite" and the Democrats will not appreciate the come back of the reds to Affairs.

If the situation is deemed dangerous by democrats and/or Elite then a coup is a possible scenario before Chavalit succeed to change the majority.

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But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

Those two words in the same sentence?

LOL he makes the point.

Chavalit is not noted for getting the job done without ... hiccups.

He is the avuncular uncle you like to talk with, but never buy his used car from.

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I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

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I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired. I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

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Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.

Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Not good to insult the people.

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.

Same in USA when they expelled the British.

This is not that, however. It's the complete opposite, in fact. The Yellows overthrew the rich and powerful oligarch who used the country to enrich himself and grab more power.

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I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired. I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

Fortunately not all several thousand of them have been PM yet. I was asking if anyone knew how much pull he still had, not implying that he had any other than saying "very little".

So did you answer from a point of knowledge or derision?

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I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired. I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

Fortunately not all several thousand of them have been PM yet. I was asking if anyone knew how much pull he still had, not implying that he had any other than saying "very little".

So did you answer from a point of knowledge or derision?

Neither. I know half a dozen or more Thai generals. They're all just happy to get that check each month. They try to sell influence occasionally, but that's not a big earner.

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So where does that leave the accusation that in the rural areas parties buy votes? Presumably, if Thaksin wanted to smash Newin's vote all he would have to do is write blank cheques and buy it? That is playing devils advocate, but it suggests as Hammered mentioned earlier, there is a stronger tie than just money. Then I would suggest that the main parties grow up and consistently show some cojones and leave Bumjaithai prostitute ass in opposition next time. Starve the beggars out.

It isn't as though Newin can threaten whole constituencies with assassination if they don't vote for him. As for PPP/PTP/TRT apologies, I forget that this is the land of sequels when it comes to political parties. They are worse than the hydra, you cut off one head and two come back but with a different set of initials. Too many t's and nationalistic p's.

Newin is an odd case, along with Banharn. Ask yourself why, when the complete NAP, including Chavalit and Chalerm, and other parties, were bought out by Thaksin, did these two choose to keep their blocs of controlled MP's isolated in the CTP? They would rather play the role of king maker, waiting to see the lie of the land before choosing an alliance. Thaksin did throw money at them. They stuck with him until the 2006 election debacle, at which time they threw their hat in with the Democrat's boycot. Post 2007 election they sided with Samak, heading for the money, until their party was dissolved and they went over to the Democrats, in their separate ways this time, but again staying in government. Maybe collecting a wad of cash on the way, maybe not. Those allegations have never been proved, but knowing Newin, definitely getting something out of it. You can either join one of the current big two; Democrats or PTP, and risk being in the opposition, or you can float inbetween and always be in government.

It may surprise you to know that in this part of Buri Ram, which is definitely Newin territory, he doesn't do a lot of vote buying. Maybe a bottle or two of fish sauce, or a couple of pairs of sandals for their "loyalty". Over the years he has perfected the art of populist politics to perfection (I suppose that's just a different form of vote buying though, albeit one that's more in line with the west), and is treated like royalty by the local farmers. I don't judge the popularity of the current parties by road side billboards, any one can pay for one of those, but rather by shops and houses displaying their stickers and banner. BJT ones are all over the villages around me. However, I have yet to see a single PTP one. And his "Rao puen Newin puen rao" (We're friends of Newin's, Newin's friend's with us) T-shirts were the costume of choice for the upwardly mobile rice farmer and buffalo herder a year or so back, until they all rotted away, usually while still being worn. He didn't get to where he is by being a nice guy though. And he's not about to give up what he has. Very similar to Thaksin in that respect. Believe me, I know the guy. I wouldn't be surprised if people took money to vote for the PTP, but still voted for his candidate. And, as I said in my previous post, I also wouldn't be in the least surprised to hear of the vote buyer's bodies being found at the side of the road, or not found at all. Not condoning it. I know him, but don't like him, and he's long overdue a criminal charge for his role in the bird flu cover up, amongst other crimes, but that's the way he is. And that's the way it is in Isaan politics.

Edited by ballpoint
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I think Chavalits pull is directly related to memories of how much money

was made or lost, by his negotiating corespondents, when as Prime Minister Chavalit

he presided over causing the 1997 Asian Tiger Economic Crash that left thousands insolvent.

PS

a certain Under Secretary of government, T. Shinawatra, happened to oh so 'luckily'

hedge ALL his baht currencies, and profited grqandly at the bahts 'surprise devaluation.'..

unlike 95% pf business people in the ASEAN region.

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I think Chavalits pull is directly related to memories of how much money

was made or lost, by his negotiating corespondents, when as Prime Minister Chavalit

he presided over causing the 1997 Asian Tiger Economic Crash that left thousands insolvent.

PS

a certain Under Secretary of government, T. Shinawatra, happened to oh so 'luckily'

hedge ALL his baht currencies, and profited grqandly at the bahts 'surprise devaluation.'..

unlike 95% pf business people in the ASEAN region.

A nice story, which I first heard over 10 years ago, and which I have never had substantiated.

And if it's true, I somehow doubt that he would have been the only one to be tipped off.

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Well it seems no coup last night , LOL .

Suppose everyone here heard about that story about Thaksin promoting violence according to US NSA intercept of his phone discussions . Even the US start to be pissed with the man . If he thinks he can avoid jail if he shows his ass at Suvarnabhumi , he must have smoked something thats not Philip Morris standard issue .

Yes saw some of the programs of Mr Abhisit . Seems the PM is honest , very anti-corruption , and with a good program on free education for all thais until 15 , even a reasonable tax on the land seems like a good way to finance it all , provided those with very small plots get some deduction . Education is the key in the countryside , secund some microcredits for the rurals to start some small business . Hardly can see how my gf could have educated her two daughters , without my support for last 11 years .She is not very supportive of that Thaskin character , she is from central Thailand . Which makes me think that the universal support of the billionaire would be Robin Hood by the rural masses is regional rather then national . Thaksin popular with all the rurals seems like another myth i guess

Well Abhisit seems to be doing a good job wonder if he will be abble to implement it if some stupid opportunist politician wreck his coalition (not to mention vested interests) . But thats the thai system and no one wants to hear my rambling about a need to modify the system for some continuity in the post of PM with checks and balances .

Good day

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