Thailand's Army, The Silent Political Actor

[webfact]

Thailand's army, the silent political actor - Analysis

by Didier Lauras

BANGKOK (AFP) -- While a populist street movement paints Bangkok red, the army has been quietly acting its own role and will be pivotal to determining how the crisis plays out, analysts say.

Experts differ on who will win the political battle pitting Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva against the "Red Shirts" loyal to his ousted billionaire predecessor, Thaksin Shinawatra.

But they agree that some of the real power play is taking place behind closed doors.

The army, responsible for no fewer than 18 coups or attempted coups since 1932, overthrew Thaksin in September 2006 and appointed a general to head an interim government, which created a new constitution during its year in power.

Thaksin's allies took office in 2007 elections, but were hounded by a series of lawsuits and a vocal protest movement. They were toppled by court rulings in 2008 that saw Abhisit come to power through a parliamentary vote.

The coup still looms large over the political stage, said Thongchai Winichakul, a Thai analyst at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the United States.

"The 2006 coup has let the genie out of the bottle," said Thongchai, arguing that the country's establishment had asked the army to step in and restore order. "Of course they didn't turn down the invitation to power."

The Red Shirts have argued that former prime minister Prem Tinsulanonda, who is now the chief adviser to Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, masterminded the putsch.

The 82-year-old monarch has been a stabilising force during six politically turbulent decades on the throne, but he has kept out of the current crisis.

Observers now say Abhisit and his fragile coalition government survive only with the support of the army and its chief, General Anupong Paojinda.

The current army leadership "and (Abhisit's) Democrats are both adamantly anti-Thaksin", said Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert at Germany's Heidelberg University.

"The former currently dominates the armed forces, the latter the ruling coalition. It is thus in their mutual interests to remain together."

The military was widely seen as being behind Abhisit's sudden decision on Sunday to agree to televised talks with the Red Shirts, after previously refusing all negotiation until they left the streets.

And many believe the army must have agreed to Abhisit's offer -- rejected by the Red Shirts -- to call elections a year early, at the end of 2010.

If the polls were held even earlier it might upset a transition of power in the army, with Anupong due to retire in October.

He is pushing his number two, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, to succeed him but -- despite the army's clout -- the appointment must be signed off by the government.

So it would have been "extremely unusual" if an election date was discussed for before the October 1 military reshuffle, said Chris Baker, a Bangkok-based Thailand expert and biographer of Thaksin.

In recent months, Thai media have pored over signs of splits within army ranks and ruminated over persistent rumours of a fresh coup being plotted in the background.

But Chambers said the military was likely to keep up the pressure in private rather than stage another coup, allowing the country to maintain a "veneer of electoral democracy".

"It is more convenient to allow an elected prime minister to face potential public scorn while the armed forces reap the rewards of enhanced prerogatives behind the scenes," he said.

Analyst Thongchai believes it is now up to Thai society to reject the army's pre-eminent role in politics. Otherwise the military genies look likely to remain.

Only when "society no longer seeks a quick but false fix of political problems, but lets the democratic process and rule of law run its course, will they return to the bottle", he said.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-04-01

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[tonywebster]

Just a puppet on a striiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing

come on everyone, join in

[noel2499rk]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

[tonywebster]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

vast cuts in military spending is the way forward to a coup. The army exerts too much power here, that is clear and there will never be a true democracy here while they have this power and the ability to alter constitutions to protect themselves from criminal charges for preforming these illegal coups.

[Phuket1]

So what, in Thailand the army is the boss while in the USA Halliburton is the boss. Just ask G.W Bush why we needed the Irak war!

[elcent]

But Chambers said the military was likely to keep up the pressure in private rather than stage another coup, allowing the country to maintain a "veneer of electoral democracy".

what does it mean? Throwing grenades to keep their hands in the cookie jar?

[elcent]

So what, in Thailand the army is the boss while in the USA Halliburton is the boss. Just ask G.W Bush why we needed the Irak war!

The art of deception on a wholesale? http://media.abovetopsecret.com/media/3524...ver_Saw_Part_1/

[landofthefree]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

What a great article, one that the Nation newspaper and a lot of Thai Visa posters could learn from. In reply to the post if Abhisit stays in power he has agreed to increase military spending not decrease it. I wonder if the Thai visa posters that support Abhisit realise that he is just a front man for the unelected army. I personally don't like Thaksin and what he has done but I find the alternative too similar to the situation in Burma. The Military have far too much of a say in Thai politics, one only has to look at the number of coups that they have carried out to see that.I don't know how common knowledge this is but the Thai military even own and run a Thai TV channel! Why?The military Junta in Burma recently disqualified the party that was going to win from being in the elections, sounds very similar to what happened in Thailand doesn't it? I can understand why Thai people are not happy with the political situation and why the people are out on the streets protesting.

[anotherpeter]

The way forward is slow.

The army have all the power (guns) in Thailand, so it's very difficult to reduce their clout in one go.

The way forward is to chip away at their power.

Educate the people about democracy. Educate the people in general.

Educate the people about corruption, and how it is bad AT EVERY LEVEL.

Teach the people to reject corruption AT EVERY LEVEL.

Then they can start reducing the power of the army.

[CockneyGit]

Experts differ on who will win the political battle pitting Oxford-educated Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva against the "Red Shirts" loyal to his ousted billionaire predecessor, Thaksin Shinawatra.

This where I feel the Red Shirts are fighting a losing battle in some ways, they are too closely linked to Thaksin.

While I have a certain amount of sympathy for their cause regarding the current "elected" government, their close ties to Thaksin will always be a stumbling block and can only hold them back in the eyes of the current administration.

They need to focus their energies to the current government situation within Thailand itself and try to distance themselves from Thaksin a bit more.

Just my humble opinion.

[Paul123456]

So what, in Thailand the army is the boss while in the USA Halliburton is the boss. Just ask G.W Bush why we needed the Irak war!

Exactly

[geriatrickid]

This is blasphemy to many in TV, particularly those that were calling for a coup.

Democracy can only occur once the military reports to the civilian government and only when it is the civilian government that dictates the military budget.

[Publicus]

So what, in Thailand the army is the boss while in the USA Halliburton is the boss. Just ask G.W Bush why we needed the Irak war!

Exactly

We needed the Iraq War and its cost so we could get to the state of global economy we're in today??

The link above is entitled "The Great Conspiracy." I don't dismiss every conspiracy theory - only 99% of them - and this one is a whopper, but why not make a 9/11 conspiracy a whopper? The wilder the better, eh

The Thai army will always run the country because the founders of Thai democracy failed even to consider establishing the principle and practice of civilian control of the military. I recall that after Thaksin became PM people were saying coups were a thing of the past and felt a great sense of relief in their self-reinforcing misperception.

Getting out from under military supremacy over the civilian government will require institutional solutions rather than hoping the population will eventually demand it and require the change - the latter is a pipe dream. The elites, to include the army itself, will have to abolish and create institutionally to separate the army from loyalty to any given institution. The army must become the servant of the State as a whole and to all of its institutions and constitution, rather than to be loyal to any one institution above others to include the parliament. The parliament always has been subjugated to army influence and control. Democracy has always been at the mercy and whim of the army. The army has a loyalty that is above democracy and above any constitution. Only the army itself can change this. However, the signs/indicators in this respect show nothing but more of the same. The past thousand years of institutional history and military traditions are virtually impossible to overcome unless the army itself and the elites themselves can agree there is a problem, then to resolve the problem peacefully and rationally. I'm not holding my breath.

[givenall]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

Is all about the Have and Have not. Arm forces is one way to keep the have not in their place. Most of wealth is owned by few families in Thailand and all the big industries are also own and control by them. They don’t have anti-trust laws so there no law again this.

[craigt3365]

Democracy can only occur once the military reports to the civilian government and only when it is the civilian government that dictates the military budget.

Right on...otherwise, we are just like Burma....

[connel707]

Just a puppet on a striiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing

come on everyone, join in

Giving your age away now Tony.... its a young mans world we now live in...

[Thai at Heart]

Democracy can only occur once the military reports to the civilian government and only when it is the civilian government that dictates the military budget.

Right on...otherwise, we are just like Burma....

Yeah, but we got electricity and tourist. Whoooooopppeeeeeeeeee!

[connel707]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

What a great article, one that the Nation newspaper and a lot of Thai Visa posters could learn from. In reply to the post if Abhisit stays in power he has agreed to increase military spending not decrease it. I wonder if the Thai visa posters that support Abhisit realise that he is just a front man for the unelected army. I personally don't like Thaksin and what he has done but I find the alternative too similar to the situation in Burma. The Military have far too much of a say in Thai politics, one only has to look at the number of coups that they have carried out to see that.I don't know how common knowledge this is but the Thai military even own and run a Thai TV channel! Why?The military Junta in Burma recently disqualified the party that was going to win from being in the elections, sounds very similar to what happened in Thailand doesn't it? I can understand why Thai people are not happy with the political situation and why the people are out on the streets protesting.

What utter bollards..... Thai people on a whole are Very happy with their political situation, a tiny fraction of not very well educated peoples are in the streets Being PAID to try and bring down Ahbisit to try and get Thaksin home and his ill-gotten gains returned to him. This will NEVER happen now and as a Farang I am so glad because Thaksin hated farangs being here...We (some of us that is) are too smart for that old ex-policeman turned con-man, thief, liar and cheat, but at least he had the sense to divorce the old Buffalo .........Pass a Chang..!

[Old Man River]

But Chambers said the military was likely to keep up the pressure in private rather than stage another coup, allowing the country to maintain a "veneer of electoral democracy".

what does it mean? Throwing grenades to keep their hands in the cookie jar?

Why do you think the military is the guilty party in the recent bombings? Some look elsewhere.

[Old Man River]

The army exerts too much power here, that is clear and there will never be a true democracy here while they have this power and the ability to alter constitutions to protect themselves from criminal charges for preforming these illegal coups.

There will never be a true democracy in Thailand as long as people are willing to sell their votes.

[anotherpeter]

But Chambers said the military was likely to keep up the pressure in private rather than stage another coup, allowing the country to maintain a "veneer of electoral democracy".

what does it mean? Throwing grenades to keep their hands in the cookie jar?

Why do you think the military is the guilty party in the recent bombings? Some look elsewhere.

The conspiracy theory thread is somewhere else.

[anotherpeter]

The army has too much power in Thailand. That is clear.

But can Abhisit or any politician do much about that now?

If Thaksin was back here (and when he was here) he wouldn't change anything, he would just put his people in positions in the army. He would have as much luck of reducing the army's power as any other politician. He wouldn't actually want to reduce it. He would just use it.

It's not worth trying to reduce the power of the army overnight. It's a long term effort. Build the democracy. Get rid of the corruption. The army will slowly change to be about protecting the civilians rather than ruling them.

[Old Man River]

But Chambers said the military was likely to keep up the pressure in private rather than stage another coup, allowing the country to maintain a "veneer of electoral democracy".

what does it mean? Throwing grenades to keep their hands in the cookie jar?

Why do you think the military is the guilty party in the recent bombings? Some look elsewhere.

The conspiracy theory thread is somewhere else.

If you really want to be helpful, provide the link. I can't find it.

[craigt3365]

The army has too much power in Thailand. That is clear.

But can Abhisit or any politician do much about that now?

If Thaksin was back here (and when he was here) he wouldn't change anything, he would just put his people in positions in the army. He would have as much luck of reducing the army's power as any other politician. He wouldn't actually want to reduce it. He would just use it.

It's not worth trying to reduce the power of the army overnight. It's a long term effort. Build the democracy. Get rid of the corruption. The army will slowly change to be about protecting the civilians rather than ruling them.

Exactly. But in regards to the "conspiracy theory", I do believe the army is somewhat split on these protests. A few are totally in support (Seh Daeng, etc) and others are not (top 2 or 3 in charge). Comments?

[noel2499rk]

It is sad that relative to other Asian countries Thailand has been a parliamentary democracy for some time, yet has been unable to exert the power of that parliament to control the army. Vast cuts in military spending are the way forward.

What a great article, one that the Nation newspaper and a lot of Thai Visa posters could learn from. In reply to the post if Abhisit stays in power he has agreed to increase military spending not decrease it. I wonder if the Thai visa posters that support Abhisit realise that he is just a front man for the unelected army. I personally don't like Thaksin and what he has done but I find the alternative too similar to the situation in Burma. The Military have far too much of a say in Thai politics, one only has to look at the number of coups that they have carried out to see that.I don't know how common knowledge this is but the Thai military even own and run a Thai TV channel! Why?The military Junta in Burma recently disqualified the party that was going to win from being in the elections, sounds very similar to what happened in Thailand doesn't it? I can understand why Thai people are not happy with the political situation and why the people are out on the streets protesting.

What utter bollards..... Thai people on a whole are Very happy with their political situation, a tiny fraction of not very well educated peoples are in the streets Being PAID to try and bring down Ahbisit to try and get Thaksin home and his ill-gotten gains returned to him. This will NEVER happen now and as a Farang I am so glad because Thaksin hated farangs being here...We (some of us that is) are too smart for that old ex-policeman turned con-man, thief, liar and cheat, but at least he had the sense to divorce the old Buffalo .........Pass a Chang..!

A lot of Thai people probably are happy with the status quo, but what if they had a free and independent media with proper investigative journalism to report to them how their country is really run would they be as happy. As usual on TV these debates always turn into a Thaksin vs Ahbisit celebrity death match but its really irrelevant which one of them runs the country, because the country does not have the institutions needed for a fair and functioning democracy to exsist.

[Old Man River]

The army has too much power in Thailand. That is clear.

But can Abhisit or any politician do much about that now?

If Thaksin was back here (and when he was here) he wouldn't change anything, he would just put his people in positions in the army. He would have as much luck of reducing the army's power as any other politician. He wouldn't actually want to reduce it. He would just use it.

It's not worth trying to reduce the power of the army overnight. It's a long term effort. Build the democracy. Get rid of the corruption. The army will slowly change to be about protecting the civilians rather than ruling them.

Exactly. But in regards to the "conspiracy theory", I do believe the army is somewhat split on these protests. A few are totally in support (Seh Daeng, etc) and others are not (top 2 or 3 in charge). Comments?

First and foremost the military defends the Palace. Apart from that, there are some in the military that would like to see Thaksin succeed in removing Gen. Prem and the other PC's.

[elcent]

The only way is to cut down on military spendings as Anand did and also to some extend Thaksin. (650 Generals in Thailand)

Has all the increase of military spending solved anything? The South? Issues with Cambodia?

If there is a civil war to come and a guerrilla warfare in Bangkok the army will be lost anyway. - I don't think it will happen though, but some wish for it. Hope it ends peaceful before it get started.

As mentioned in earlier posts, the political landscape will change forever here in Thailand. The reds are not claiming the impossible, so why not strike a deal?

Thaksin is out. Abhisit is burnt. Where are the new kids on the row?

[BSJ]

The best way to reduce the power of the military is to start a war with a troublesome neighbour country. When the military are bogged down in a protracted engagement with mounting losses and no end in sight the government can then pour scorn on the generals for the dire situation they have got the country into. Then the government can come to the fore and reduce the influence of the military.

Yer, I know it's not the easy way, but it's probably the only way!

[apex2000]

What a great article, one that the Nation newspaper and a lot of Thai Visa posters could learn from. In reply to the post if Abhisit stays in power he has agreed to increase military spending not decrease it. I wonder if the Thai visa posters that support Abhisit realise that he is just a front man for the unelected army. I personally don't like Thaksin and what he has done but I find the alternative too similar to the situation in Burma. The Military have far too much of a say in Thai politics, one only has to look at the number of coups that they have carried out to see that.I don't know how common knowledge this is but the Thai military even own and run a Thai TV channel! Why?The military Junta in Burma recently disqualified the party that was going to win from being in the elections, sounds very similar to what happened in Thailand doesn't it? I can understand why Thai people are not happy with the political situation and why the people are out on the streets protesting.

I fully agree with your comments. I think that those Thai Visa posters siding with Abhisit know little or nothing of Thai people, Thai language, Thai people's needs, etc. It takes time and a knowledge of the Thai language to know how these people think and what their feelings are towards various different issues in the country. There will be no true democracy in this country - it annoys me when people speak of 'Thai' democracy (such a thing does not exist) - until the army are put firmly in their place and get OUT of politics. I believe we are likely to see pigs fly before that happens - and I would just love to see a pig fly.

This country is a wonderful place to live but the elite are so jealous of each other and this will probably continue forever - such a shame because I love this country and its grassroots people. As for the ones at the top, well...

You know, there's one thing that really annoys me, and that is when these so-called 'elite' people say that the common people have no education and therefore should not be entitled to vote. Ask yourself, who provides this lack of education? The elite of course and that is how they want it to be. There is no easier way to control a country's people than restricting their education to something just sufficient to live.

Good luck Thailand. Get well soon.

Edited April 1, 2010 by apex2000

[elcent]

New Delhi, India (CNN) -- A new law went into effect in India Thursday making education a fundamental right for every child.

India makes elementary education compulsory.

Possible in Thailand you think, or is it only taaaaaalks?

Remember next month starts a new school year in Thailand. Most parents will be broke, which could also pore fuel into the fire. Why is the gov so slow in acting?