Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[Humungus]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

I like how you phrased that, an uninformed person could think the two events are related, the BTS victims were injured by grenades, not by soldiers rifles.

[Ulysses G.]

It was not meant that way.

[cdnmatt]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

[rabo]

Oops! Sorry.

Edited May 2, 2010 by rabo

[rabo]

Reply to OP only:

Good article and it gives a sound basic explanation for a western audience that doesn't know Thailand from Taiwan.

I disagree with ICG and think Abhisit is giving the Reds enough rope to hang themselves. And it's working. It's the Reds who are stuck on a path to unpopularity in messy and imperfect democracy. The upcoming elections need to be focused on.

Elected civilian control of the military is prime and I hope the courts think the same.

I hope you are wrong.

The elected officials are not responsible enough to have direct control of the military. Thaksin trying to do this is what kicked off this whole mess. There is nothing wrong with the current system. If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it.

Thailand needs a somewhat independent military as a guiding hand for when the corrupt civilian government gets too far out of line. The military is corrupt also, but doesn't have any desire to try and rule the day to day activities of the Kingdom thus making them a little more responsible. You may not like this particular balance of power, but it is working. The military is slowly giving up its monopoly hold on various industries to the civilian establishment. This trend will continue. Give it time. I hope this whole ugly mess simply fades into the background and things go back to the status quo.

In several decades after the education system has been improved and people have learned how to think independently and learned the meaning of responsibility, maybe we can try it your way. For now, Thais are like children and the military is the only parent we've got. I hate to think what this country would become if you took that discipline away.

I don't want to run that experiment.

This is the whole idea behind the concept of the constitutional monarchy. It is the stepping stone from a benevolent kingdom to a modern democracy. So far, the population has not received very good grades and Thaksin flunked out.

Edited May 2, 2010 by rabo

[Tejas]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

Part of what you wrote made me think of the false optimism and unreasonable expectations instilled in the masses between 2000 - 2007.

I think this led to massive frustration on part of many Thais, especially the young who now know that their dreams are only dreams.

Of course, part of this rests with the hyper-nationalism that was brought to the surface during this same time period.

You can trace it to the flow of information. That flow implanted false ideas, thoughts, expectations.

And it resulted in widespread ANGER. The masses wanted an enemy. Those in power constructed two enemies: Red enemy if you are Yellow; Yellow enemy if you are Red.

That construct was only designed to divide the public and divert their attention away from the source of Thailand's problems.

Yes, all of that sounds like psycho-babble.

But at the root of everything we do is a set of ideas about the world, and those ideas are implanted by those who control the flow of information.

What Thailand needs, IMHO, is a charismatic leader who will tell the public the truth, bring both Reds and Yellows (and all other colors) together.

That is possible, but anything is possible under the right circumstances.

A major problem is the flow of information is being guided by a maniac who is currently living outside of Thailand--a maniac who cares nothing about Thailand or the Thai people (again, IMHO).

[midas]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

USA is broke ! and what is special about the moral standards of US ?

Why not ask China or India to send their troops here ?

[retarius]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

If those that are supposed to uphold the law, any we all know who they are, actually did so a lot of Thailand's problems would be solved.

I think it is a little deeper than this...to be legitimate laws have to be applied to everybody, they have to be enforced routinely, and the judiciary must be impartial...none of these criteria apply to Thailand....

The elite are above the law and are not held accountable for illegal activities, and this erodes respect for the law amongst the rest of the population; law enforcement is spotty and politically motivated; and I don't think people see the judiciary as impartial...it can move at lightening pace or at a snail's pace depending on the what the powerful want...

The Constitution is the foundation of law in any country, and confers legitimacy on the lawmakers, while placing limits about what may or may not be brought into law....think of how the Americans love their constitution.

The current constitution in Thailand was approved by referendum in which 59% of voters, voted for it...why on earth would this not be seen to be legitimate? The answer is because the junta (who wrote the constitution) made criticism of it a criminal offense punishable by up to 10 years in prison, and made it illegal to campaign against it, while pouring billions of baht into a 'vote yes' campaign. If Gordon Brown held a referendum on a law to be introduced in the UK and forbade any criticism of the law under pain of imprisonment, people in Britain would, rightly, not see that referendum as a legitimate expression of the will of the people (and neither would the vast majority of the farangs on this forum)...thus even the foundation of the law that confers legitimacy has been compromised.

[viking75]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

I like how you phrased that, an uninformed person could think the two events are related, the BTS victims were injured by grenades, not by soldiers rifles.

that is right... you did!

nice on here now that no pro red posts allowed. sure things get better now because 20 falangs on a web site agree and not let others post.

good site this

[whybother]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

I like how you phrased that, an uninformed person could think the two events are related, the BTS victims were injured by grenades, not by soldiers rifles.

that is right... you did!

nice on here now that no pro red posts allowed. sure things get better now because 20 falangs on a web site agree and not let others post.

good site this

Pro-red posts are allowed. It's just that pro-reds can't come with anything better than "But the Yellows ...". It's gone way past that now, so they have nothing to say.

[Steely Dan]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

Yes it is sad, there are some legitimate grievances, however Thailand has proven itself just not ready for democracy. Democracy bears responsibilities as well as rights. To vote depending on policies and not paybacks is a responsibility, as is public servants performing their duties as instructed by their government, regardless of their personal views; I refer to the police and some factions of the army here. Democracy is about deferring personal gratification for the collective good, which means drink driving is not acceptable, nor is trying to buy favor, or exemption from responsibility.

The book Lord of the Flies, or should that be Thais is a great parallel for what is happening. It is as if a group of boys none older than 13 have been shipwrecked on an Island, form factions and eventually the evil which lurks within all of us gets the upper hand freed of any inhibiting sanctions.

The Red shirts and to a lesser extent the Yellow before them have followed this same route. Arrest warrants are ignored as the enforcers from judges to Police to even the army hedge their bets for fear of ending up on the losing side.

Sorry, this is not democracy, Thailand is not ready for it and won't be until the police and military unflinchingly do the bidding of the government in a professional accountable manner. Until then I'm afraid a benign dictator is the best solution. Abhisit would make a great prime minister in perhaps a decade from now but a lot of growing up needs to be done in the meantime.

[jalansanitwong]

What's a 'think tank'. Do you have to be intelligent to join? Going by the shocking mess most western countries are in , i doubt it.

[brahmburgers]

THE NATION: Kwanchai: Hello 2 ever1 who loves justice. Tells PM, about Sarasin intersection, you don't need M16s, we'll talk with police.

Dear Kwanchai, .......but did you talk with the person in Kon Kaen (with the different political leaning) before you and your thugs killed him?

Correction: I now realize the guy with the different political leanings, who was killed by Red thugs, was in Udon Thani, not Kon Kaen.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

USA is broke ! and what is special about the moral standards of US ? Why not ask China or India to send their troops here ?

The US has no dog in this fight. The US is more likely to exert military force in Burma than in Thailand, or at least park an aircraft carrier group off Burma's coast (I wish).

The best chance for Thailand not to slip in to further anarchy and violence, is to start with dialog. That way everyone can get a a better idea of what various factions are thinking. Follow up with televised debates about issues. Try to keep cool heads as much as possible, and leave the threat of lawsuits aside.

All concerned people can find candidates and work vigorously (within legal constraints) to campaign for the people they like the best. All Thais have to try to find a way to accept the results of next election - whether their people won or not. That's the biggest hurdle. Currently, the Thai psyche dictates: If you don't like the results of an election, you must get angry and join noisy/messy/dangerous rallies in order to force your choices on others.

If the current gov't (shaky as it is) bends to the demands of the Reds, then it will certainly reinforce the nasty pattern of mob rule. Thais need to break away from mob rule, and get a handle on real democracy. What the Reds are proposing no way resembles democracy of any type. If in doubt, look at their actions.

[cdnmatt]

Democracy is about deferring personal gratification for the collective good, which means drink driving is not acceptable, nor is trying to buy favor, or exemption from responsibility.

That actually going me thinking, and you're totally right. Although Thais in general are very peaceful and friendly people (unless you piss them off), they seem to have quite a bit of disregard for their environment and fellow human. Has anyone else noticed that?

For example, in Canada, for the most part everyone understand this is our world, and we're all in this life together, so lets make the best of it. With this, you have people holding doors open for each other, always saying please & thank you, people put their garbage in the garbage cans, make sure to clean up after themselves, and so on. You don't see that as much in Thailand. They'll litter to no end, and don't seem to care, because there's paid workers who will clean up after them. Same as going out for Thai BBQ for example, which usually ends up with dishes all over the place. Don't dare trying to stack up the plates a little, to help the already busy waiter, which would be somewhat expected in Canada, because you'll get scolded for it.

For example, try starting a blue box recycling program in Thailand. How well do you think that would work? Probably not very. Whereas in Canada, alot of people do recycle, simply because it's our world, and everyone has to do their part. You don't get that anywhere near as much in Thailand. Everyone's in it for themselves here.

[Jerrytheyoung]

[

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed.

/..../

The best chance for Thailand not to slip in to further anarchy and violence, is to start with dialog. That way everyone can get a a better idea of what various factions are thinking. Follow up with televised debates about issues. Try to keep cool heads as much as possible, and leave the threat of lawsuits aside.

All concerned people can find candidates and work vigorously (within legal constraints) to campaign for the people they like the best. All Thais have to try to find a way to accept the results of next election - whether their people won or not.

/...../

Happy that we begin to find common ground.

Let us talk first about what unite before we look at what divide.. it is a good start.

Edited May 2, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[lonewolf99]

Aye we're all doooomed Captain Mainwaring....I say we're all dooomed.....

Patience is a virtue and I think Mr Abhasit has tons of it.....within 2 weeks it will all be a bad memory.....you read it here first folks...

Edited May 2, 2010 by lonewolf99

[jdinasia]

[

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed.

/..../

The best chance for Thailand not to slip in to further anarchy and violence, is to start with dialog. That way everyone can get a a better idea of what various factions are thinking. Follow up with televised debates about issues. Try to keep cool heads as much as possible, and leave the threat of lawsuits aside.

All concerned people can find candidates and work vigorously (within legal constraints) to campaign for the people they like the best. All Thais have to try to find a way to accept the results of next election - whether their people won or not.

/...../

Happy that we begin to find common ground.

Let us talk first about what unite before we look at what divide.. it is a good start.

Cherry picking again Jerry? You seem to have left out some parts of that post including ....

If the current gov't (shaky as it is) bends to the demands of the Reds, then it will certainly reinforce the nasty pattern of mob rule. Thais need to break away from mob rule, and get a handle on real democracy. What the Reds are proposing no way resembles democracy of any type. If in doubt, look at their actions.

[coe]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

This is what happens when all side are not willing to compromise and only looking for their own interests, Thaksin, Yellow, and Red shirt alike. This is a country of everyone for themselves, Including you and I

[/size]There are no discipline that Democracy has a price, including giving your life for it

best post and decent comment in the whole of this tv "discussions".

kudos to you the writer/commentator.

Are we there yet?

Question:

What are the 8 elements of democracy?

Answer:

#1-Rule of law. Everyone must adhere to the same laws.

#2-Human Dignity. Citizens should protect and uphold the dignity of all people.

#3-Political Equality. Everyone has the same right to vote and run for office and to speak on public issues.

#4-Political Freedoms. People can speak freely and vote without intimidation.

#5-Common Good. Citizens work towards the common good (what will make people safe and happy).

#6-Being Informed and Getting Involved. Citizens should participate individually and collectively in issues that shape their community, nation and world.

#7-Personal Freedom. People enjoy freedom of religion and freedom of expressions.

#8-Respect. Citizens should respect the rights of others.

with your 8 dos and dont's shopping list on democracy,

will anyone be there at all in the first place?

[coe]

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

I like how you phrased that, an uninformed person could think the two events are related, the BTS victims were injured by grenades, not by soldiers rifles.

that is right... you did!

nice on here now that no pro red posts allowed. sure things get better now because 20 falangs on a web site agree and not let others post.

good site this

Pro-red posts are allowed. It's just that pro-reds can't come with anything better than "But the Yellows ...". It's gone way past that now, so they have nothing to say.

..and i thought some pro-debono reds are already on board here , except just to detect them from the all yellows who have all sorts of ideas that.......

[sarahsbloke]

Whenever there is an election, the reds win.

The wrong people keep winning the elections and have to be replaced by the elite.

Many of the elite rulers aren't even full blood Thais (part chinese), most of the reds are 100 percent full blood Thai.

Previously in countries when a small group, often from a different ethnic background to the majority, gained too much power there was an inevitable 'ethnic cleansing'

Jewish people in Germany

Pakistani people in Uganda

White people in Rhodesia

To name but a few. A bloodbath is almost inevitable IMHO.

The only thing delaying this bloodbath is their/our love for the King, let's all pray he lives to be 100.

Edited May 2, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[gregb]

For example, try starting a blue box recycling program in Thailand. How well do you think that would work? Probably not very. Whereas in Canada, alot of people do recycle, simply because it's our world, and everyone has to do their part. You don't get that anywhere near as much in Thailand. Everyone's in it for themselves here.

A bit of a break from the vitriol spewing political discussions:

I don't disagree with the majority of your comment, but would like to point out that recycling in Thailand using the Western fashion is simply unnecessary. Put anything you want in the regular garbage. People are constantly mining the garbage bins for recyclable material. I've actually spoken with Thais on why they don't recycle, and they are very well aware of the poor that make a living doing this. They don't want to take this income stream away from the people, even though they could make a few hundred baht by doing it themselves and selling it. I'm sure there are many who are simply lazy, but for many not keeping the recyclable material is viewed as a form of charity.

Please don't use recycling an example of why the West is more advanced in Thailand. It is a fallacious argument. I would suspect more gets recycled here than in Farangland. It just uses a different process is all. So no, a blue box recycling program would fail miserably, but not for the reasons you have implied.

[whybother]

Whenever there is an election, the reds win.

The wrong people keep winning the elections and have to be replaced by the elite.

Many of the elite rulers aren't even full blood Thais (part chinese), most of the reds are 100 percent full blood Thai.

Previously in countries when a small group, often from a different ethnic background to the majority, gained too much power there was an inevitable 'clensing'

Jewish people in Germany

Pakistani people in Uganda

White people in Rhodesia

To name but a few. A bloodbath is almost inevitable IMHO.

The BIG RED is Thai-Chinese.

edit: did the reds "win" the last election? No!

Edited May 2, 2010 by whybother

[gregb]

All Thais have to try to find a way to accept the results of next election - whether their people won or not. That's the biggest hurdle.

This becomes alot easier if Thaksin is dead. As long as he is alive, fear of his return will prevent this outcome. Fear will trump ideology every single time.

I hope the rumours are true. It is Thailand's only chance.

[Humungus]

Whenever there is an election, the reds win.

The wrong people keep winning the elections and have to be replaced by the elite.

Many of the elite rulers aren't even full blood Thais (part chinese), most of the reds are 100 percent full blood Thai.

Previously in countries when a small group, often from a different ethnic background to the majority, gained too much power there was an inevitable 'cleansing'

Jewish people in Germany

Pakistani people in Uganda

White people in Rhodesia

To name but a few. A bloodbath is almost inevitable IMHO.

The only thing delaying the bloodbath is their/our love for the King, let's all pray he lives to be 100.

Wikipedia lists 40 distinct ethnic groups that make up Thailand. Which of them qualifies for your 100 percent full blood status? I think if you are honest you will find that Thai people are often mixed with the surrounding countries. Southern Thais have Malaysian influences, Isaan peoples may have Khmer or Lao ancestry. There are various hill tribes in the north with their own languages and history. Before you incite genocide please give us an idea of who you would like to survive it. I don't think your comments are particularly helpful in solving the current crisis.

[jdinasia]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

If those that are supposed to uphold the law, any we all know who they are, actually did so a lot of Thailand's problems would be solved.

I think it is a little deeper than this...to be legitimate laws have to be applied to everybody, they have to be enforced routinely, and the judiciary must be impartial...none of these criteria apply to Thailand....

The elite are above the law and are not held accountable for illegal activities, and this erodes respect for the law amongst the rest of the population; law enforcement is spotty and politically motivated; and I don't think people see the judiciary as impartial...it can move at lightening pace or at a snail's pace depending on the what the powerful want...

The Constitution is the foundation of law in any country, and confers legitimacy on the lawmakers, while placing limits about what may or may not be brought into law....think of how the Americans love their constitution.

The current constitution in Thailand was approved by referendum in which 59% of voters, voted for it...why on earth would this not be seen to be legitimate? The answer is because the junta (who wrote the constitution) made criticism of it a criminal offense punishable by up to 10 years in prison, and made it illegal to campaign against it, while pouring billions of baht into a 'vote yes' campaign. If Gordon Brown held a referendum on a law to be introduced in the UK and forbade any criticism of the law under pain of imprisonment, people in Britain would, rightly, not see that referendum as a legitimate expression of the will of the people (and neither would the vast majority of the farangs on this forum)...thus even the foundation of the law that confers legitimacy has been compromised.

Let's see .... where to start .....

The courts try cases that are brought before them. They try cases based upon the facts and merits of each individual case. To claim that the courts are supposed to do more or less than this is spurious. Courts do make mistakes (self-admitted about the 2001 asetts concealment case against Thaksin --- the exact case that brought the term "double-standards" into common use in Thailand). There was no mistake in disbanding TRT or PPP. Both were caught red-handed in electoral fraud.

You mention democracies and the constitution and checks and balances ---- When Thaksin was taken from power by the military in 2006 --- he was a caretaker PM that had resigned (extra-constitutional) for a government that called elections early to try and whitewash its crimes (Thaksin's crimes and TRT 's crimes). Because this caretaker government could not seat a new government in the time allotted it became extra-constitutional in a second way (time frame). The fact that Thaksin eroded the checks and balances in the 1997 constitution is not argued because it is simply true. That the 1997 constitution failed to rein in Thaksin twice at the end of his tenure is also true. The military threw out the baby with the bathwater when it tossed out the entire 1997 constitution.

BUT what they did do is return democracy to the people in about a year --- after drafting a new constitution that the people had a referendum on. Sucks that many didn't vote but part of a democracy in many places is the right NOT to vote. Not crying about the results of not voting is part of that game though.

Now -- how to fix the military's constitution? There are 2 ways -- draft a new one ... or charter revision ...

The PPP wanted to do charter revision unilaterally (much like your complaints about the military having final say about the version that went to the people to be voted on) except -- they never did call for a referendum --- PPP just wanted to change it.

The Democrats on the other hand have called for reform of the constitution as part of a group process INCLUDING the opposition and all parts of society and a referendum on any changes. In other words the democrats want to make changes based upon the contributions of all parts of society -- PPP wanted to help Thaksin. Which of those 2 ways are "democratic"? PTP is not wanting charter reform to be done with the democrats at the wheel ... PTP is the thaksin crony party that followed PPP .... If A=B and B=C --- then A=C right?

So, how do we settle things?

The legitimate protest can go on --- in a place that is safe and does not disrupt the rights of others. The terrorists and insurgents and traitors get tried and dealt with by the courts.

The constitution gets reformed by The People --- not just PTP --- and gets voted on again.

New elections are held when the political environment in Thailand allows ... should be less than a year --- and will still be EARLY elections by about a year.

[Steely Dan]

Whenever there is an election, the reds win.

The wrong people keep winning the elections and have to be replaced by the elite.

Many of the elite rulers aren't even full blood Thais (part chinese), most of the reds are 100 percent full blood Thai.

Previously in countries when a small group, often from a different ethnic background to the majority, gained too much power there was an inevitable 'ethnic cleansing'

Jewish people in Germany

Pakistani people in Uganda

White people in Rhodesia

To name but a few. A bloodbath is almost inevitable IMHO.

The only thing delaying this bloodbath is their/our love for the King, let's all pray he lives to be 100.

If Seh-Daeng took charge of the Country it would God forbid give a disturbing echo to events 35 years ago when Pol Pot marched into Phnom Penh in Apr 75. Is Thaksin originally of Chinese origin by the way? Whether he is or isn't you can see how this could turn into a scapegoating exercise based on ethnic origin. Back to my Lord of the Flies analogy - If you can get people to believe in absurdities you can get them to commit atrocities.

The current situation needs careful management, if the reds are seen to get their way it sets a terrible precedent, on the other hand if the system based on privilege, nepotism and keeping the masses uneducated continues then the current unrest can flare up again at any time, especially due to possible future events we can't discuss.

[cdnmatt]

I don't disagree with the majority of your comment, but would like to point out that recycling in Thailand using the Western fashion is simply unnecessary. Put anything you want in the regular garbage. People are constantly mining the garbage bins for recyclable material. I've actually spoken with Thais on why they don't recycle, and they are very well aware of the poor that make a living doing this. They don't want to take this income stream away from the people, even though they could make a few hundred baht by doing it themselves and selling it.

Nah, I think I can rationalize this one to prove my point just fine. :-) heh, sorry.

Really though, if that was the case (them wanting to help the poor people), then they wouldn't just throw the beer bottles in with the garbage. They'd be courteous enough to put them in a separate bag, so the other person doesn't have to dig through food scraps to get an empty bottle. This is exactly what I would do in Canada. Put all my empty beer cans in a separate garbage bag, and once full, head off to the nearest corner where a bunch of homeless guys are hanging out, and hand it to them. In Thailand, they'll just throw the bottles in with their food scraps, with absolutely no empathy for the poor guy who's going to have to dig through that shit, just to make 15 baht.

That's just one very small example, but as I'm sure you all know, there's loads. I don't know, but there just doesn't seem to be that common respect and courteousness that places like Canada have. Canada seems to have this collective spirit, where we all know that we're all human, all deserve respect, and all have a voice. And everyone seems to be under the same realization. Thailand doesn't seem to have that though (at all), and unfortunately, that's not going to happen anytime soon. Although, it's required for democracy to truly work.

Edited May 2, 2010 by cdnmatt

[animatic]

Sadly there are social cultural reasons why the part Chinese Thais came to run things.

There is a work ethic and organizational ethic in that part of the culture that is more functional

than many of the 'more native' thai societies. This is nothing new, no blinding revelation, except to some here,

and it is something that has been bubbling under, and sometimes to the top, for hundreds of years

not a few decades. Some what like the old school saw, "Those that can do, those that can't teach."

In other words those that can keep the ship afloat tend to get put in command,

replacing those who send the ship towards the rocks regularly. It doesn't EVER please

the bad navigator and his friends, and they howl about it, but live to reach the shore,

and get their share of the payloads purse. Not all can run the sextant and do the calculations,

even if they think by greater numbers they should have the chance handed to them despite lack of training,

A too simplistic analysis, but not far off the mark.

Edited May 2, 2010 by animatic

[cdnmatt]

Yeah, Chinese are definitely like that, and are well known for controlling economies, because well, they're good at it. Another prime example is just south of us in Malaysia. Malays hate the Chinese, and the Chinese hate the Malays. Problem is, Malays own the government, and Chinese own the economy, so they're stuck with each other. :-)

EDIT: Actually, that's wrong. The Chinese don't seem to hate the Malays, and more or less, simply don't give a shit. After all, they own the economy, and they know it, so don't seem to care what the Malays think.

Edited May 2, 2010 by cdnmatt

[wasabi]

Hola! Hola! Hola!

Before declaring the Red shirts a band of murderers, terrorists... Cool down. They are people embarked in a spiralling of violence and the Government is far to be fully clean in this story. We are under stress of propaganda from both sides, and at the outcome, few months later, we will have some surprises about the actions done by both sides.. Please refrain to give so strong judgment in the middle of the crisis, we have only part of the information and we are under flow of propaganda.

1- Northern Population has something to say, something very deep coming from the bowels; so they will say it and even some are ready to put their life in balance: it is a very strong comitment, I will say an exceptional one.

2- When the violence starts, even usually very reasonable people may be geared in the mechanisms, even nearly a whole population may drift (Example Germans during WWII or Serbians recently). Basically people are like you and me, they are not murderers or terrorists but they are dragged in the stream.... they fight for their believings and the fight is becoming more and more violent, they forget the normalcy, the abnormal is becoming day after day the reference. How many people are able to resist? The first thing is to stay cool and relativise all those events, comparing with similar situations, trying to understand both parties and find the way to defuse not to fuel the situation. Overreaction drives to more violence which may become uncontrollable

3- Inside the Group, the moderate leaders are probably loosing grip which can be considerate as normal in such a crowd process.

4- For the "Va-en-guerre" people of this forum, (Those who want an immediate and strong military operations), just think about the consequences in Northern Thailand if hundred of people are killed: each family will have a strong reason to join the insurrection, and yes, then, we will be spiralling definitively in the real Civil war.

Please we have to remain "Civil", to stay cool and to think that if we were in their position maybe we will not react differently.

To keep his own criticism is already very difficult for highly educated people.

The solution is through the dialog. Strong actions will not solve the problem, just may postpone it and in such a case, with a Damocles sword over Thailand, investors will flee to better stable skies: it will be the end of the good fortune.....

I think this is quite possibly the best post you have ever made Jerry. It is very easy to forget one's values in the heat of anger, fear, hostility, and violence. Thank you for pointing this out.

Outstanding post that shows compassion and a deep understanding of history. I wish I had wrote it myself! I think the Red shirts are very susceptible to a Nazi like situation. I am not trying to be a chicken little here. We have a powerful charismatic leader "Thaksin" Widespread feelings of injustice, unemployment and hopelessness. As Jerry said increasing violence is slowly becoming the norm. Many will lose site of right and wrong as they get caught up in what it takes to survive another day. This could get very ugly very fast. A big difference however is the world is more connected these days and we probably would see some 1st world intervention before we had anything like the holocaust but all the seeds of such an outcome are there.