Bangkok Protests Spread To Thailand's Northeast

[LaoPo]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

Roughly, within the next 13 months, and it will last for 2-5 years.

A significant event will occur.

Demonstrations in the provinces will turn to riots, catastrophic attacks on infrastructure; road and rail sabotage. Highways blocked at random.

Government buildings attacked, bombed, burned (we've just seen a pre-view over the last 36 hours).

Road blocks set up by local militias in rural areas.

National parks will again become refuges (not unlike post-1976).

Typical day/night operations - government forces will have control during day, Red Shrits will control during the night.

Military loyalties will realign and shift, partly in response to political sympathies and partly as econonmic opportunities appear as a result of boycotts and blockades.

Flow of agricultural products and goods to BKK will slow down.

Generals will pick up the slack, purchase agricultural goods regionally and engage in massive cross-border trading in the Second and Third Army Areas with the goods that were formerly going to Bangkok.

Willingness of military to allow elections and frequency of elections will affect longterm outcome.

Expect that a more highly-eductated, better informed Krungthep populace, plus international pressure, will ensure that first rounds of elections occur within one year of military stepping up to stabilize government.

But hey, what do I know.

(If asked, I read this in a book and I forgot the title).

Nostradamus could have written the above....

But, the dark scenario, painted above, could have much truth in it.

If the present government doesn't start a serious dialogue very soon with the rural population, neglected for centuries, much of this scenario could become reality and end-up in a very bitter and long lasting civil guerilla war as described above.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

[yoshiwara]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

Roughly, within the next 13 months, and it will last for 2-5 years.

A significant event will occur.

Demonstrations in the provinces will turn to riots, catastrophic attacks on infrastructure; road and rail sabotage. Highways blocked at random.

Government buildings attacked, bombed, burned (we've just seen a pre-view over the last 36 hours).

Road blocks set up by local militias in rural areas.

National parks will again become refuges (not unlike post-1976).

Typical day/night operations - government forces will have control during day, Red Shrits will control during the night.

Military loyalties will realign and shift, partly in response to political sympathies and partly as econonmic opportunities appear as a result of boycotts and blockades.

Flow of agricultural products and goods to BKK will slow down.

Generals will pick up the slack, purchase agricultural goods regionally and engage in massive cross-border trading in the Second and Third Army Areas with the goods that were formerly going to Bangkok.

Willingness of military to allow elections and frequency of elections will affect longterm outcome.

Expect that a more highly-eductated, better informed Krungthep populace, plus international pressure, will ensure that first rounds of elections occur within one year of military stepping up to stabilize government.

But hey, what do I know.

(If asked, I read this in a book and I forgot the title).

Nostradamus could have written the above....

But, the dark scenario, painted above, could have much truth in it.

If the present government doesn't start a serious dialogue very soon with the rural population, neglected for centuries, much of this scenario could become reality and end-up in a very bitter and long lasting civil guerilla war as described above.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

What is this meaningless babble?

What are the reds economic demands?

Where is the programme?

(apart from the return of Thaksin)

[Totsagan]

Nostradamus could have written the above....

But, the dark scenario, painted above, could have much truth in it.

If the present government doesn't start a serious dialogue very soon with the rural population, neglected for centuries, much of this scenario could become reality and end-up in a very bitter and long lasting civil guerilla war as described above.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

What is this meaningless babble?

What are the reds economic demands?

Where is the programme?

(apart from the return of Thaksin)

The catalyst for the events described have nothing to do with the Red or Yellow shirts. It shouldn't be too difficult to figure out...

[gymboy33]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

Roughly, within the next 13 months, and it will last for 2-5 years.

A significant event will occur.

Demonstrations in the provinces will turn to riots, catastrophic attacks on infrastructure; road and rail sabotage. Highways blocked at random.

Government buildings attacked, bombed, burned (we've just seen a pre-view over the last 36 hours).

Road blocks set up by local militias in rural areas.

National parks will again become refuges (not unlike post-1976).

Typical day/night operations - government forces will have control during day, Red Shrits will control during the night.

Military loyalties will realign and shift, partly in response to political sympathies and partly as econonmic opportunities appear as a result of boycotts and blockades.

Flow of agricultural products and goods to BKK will slow down.

Generals will pick up the slack, purchase agricultural goods regionally and engage in massive cross-border trading in the Second and Third Army Areas with the goods that were formerly going to Bangkok.

Willingness of military to allow elections and frequency of elections will affect longterm outcome.

Expect that a more highly-eductated, better informed Krungthep populace, plus international pressure, will ensure that first rounds of elections occur within one year of military stepping up to stabilize government.

But hey, what do I know.

(If asked, I read this in a book and I forgot the title).

Nostradamus could have written the above....

But, the dark scenario, painted above, could have much truth in it.

If the present government doesn't start a serious dialogue very soon with the rural population, neglected for centuries, much of this scenario could become reality and end-up in a very bitter and long lasting civil guerilla war as described above.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

What is this meaningless babble?

What are the reds economic demands?

Where is the programme?

(apart from the return of Thaksin)

why are you always going on about taksin? your obsessed!

and always trying to make dividing lines...

you should try and listen to what their point of view is

instead of brushing it off because you think its all to do with taksin...

the man you hate! lol

[gymboy33]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

Roughly, within the next 13 months, and it will last for 2-5 years.

A significant event will occur.

Demonstrations in the provinces will turn to riots, catastrophic attacks on infrastructure; road and rail sabotage. Highways blocked at random.

Government buildings attacked, bombed, burned (we've just seen a pre-view over the last 36 hours).

Road blocks set up by local militias in rural areas.

National parks will again become refuges (not unlike post-1976).

Typical day/night operations - government forces will have control during day, Red Shrits will control during the night.

Military loyalties will realign and shift, partly in response to political sympathies and partly as econonmic opportunities appear as a result of boycotts and blockades.

Flow of agricultural products and goods to BKK will slow down.

Generals will pick up the slack, purchase agricultural goods regionally and engage in massive cross-border trading in the Second and Third Army Areas with the goods that were formerly going to Bangkok.

Willingness of military to allow elections and frequency of elections will affect longterm outcome.

Expect that a more highly-eductated, better informed Krungthep populace, plus international pressure, will ensure that first rounds of elections occur within one year of military stepping up to stabilize government.

But hey, what do I know.

(If asked, I read this in a book and I forgot the title).

Nostradamus could have written the above....

But, the dark scenario, painted above, could have much truth in it.

If the present government doesn't start a serious dialogue very soon with the rural population, neglected for centuries, much of this scenario could become reality and end-up in a very bitter and long lasting civil guerilla war as described above.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

What is this meaningless babble?

What are the reds economic demands?

Where is the programme?

(apart from the return of Thaksin)

why are you always going on about taksin? your obsessed!

and always trying to make dividing lines...

you should try and listen to what their point of view is

instead of brushing it off because you think its all to do with taksin...

the man you hate! lol

[Thules]

Fauge State is an extremely rare condition, and does not cover what has happened here. Logically the nearest legalistic view would be acting whilst the balance of the mind was impaired, however, such a defence fails if premeditation can be shown. Since in the cases here, planning [positioning of flammable materiel, addition of accelerators [e.g. petrol] such a defence would fail.

There was, and is shown clearly too much premeditation, this was no cry of anguish, it was a series of carefully planned acts, designed to create an atmosphere of fear.

Regards

Neither Google search nor Webster's dictionary can corroborate with your term ""fauge state." Could it be a spelling error?

Suspect this was meant to be spelt as Fugue state - "Fugue state: An altered state of consciousness in which a person may move about purposely and even speak but is not fully aware. A fugue state is usually a type of complex partial seizure. " (mediterm.com)

From a medical perspective, its unlikely protesters were suffering from this condition.

[KhunAussie52]

Any problem in Surin or Buriram??

Perhaps Khmer people have a bit more shall we say smarts.

I really did enjoy World Trade Center, the trouble must stop ASAP regardless of the cost.

To date,no problems in Surin.

[kaengk]

Fauge State is an extremely rare condition, and does not cover what has happened here. Logically the nearest legalistic view would be acting whilst the balance of the mind was impaired, however, such a defence fails if premeditation can be shown. Since in the cases here, planning [positioning of flammable materiel, addition of accelerators [e.g. petrol] such a defence would fail.

There was, and is shown clearly too much premeditation, this was no cry of anguish, it was a series of carefully planned acts, designed to create an atmosphere of fear.

Regards

Neither Google search nor Webster's dictionary can corroborate with your term ""fauge state." Could it be a spelling error?

Suspect this was meant to be spelt as Fugue state - "Fugue state: An altered state of consciousness in which a person may move about purposely and even speak but is not fully aware. A fugue state is usually a type of complex partial seizure. " (mediterm.com)

From a medical perspective, its unlikely protesters were suffering from this condition.

That's a pretty good description of the Abhisit military intervention in this crisis. Come in with guns blazing with a firetruck in sight and turn the water off so the fire suppression systems don't work!

[siampolee]

One needs to remember that the Khmer people are very aware of the affects of a radical regime as many of the now Thai Khmer are people who fled to Thailand to escape communism .

Their descendants are very anti communist and indeed have no love for Thaksin and his policies. in our Surin village Thaksin is despised that also applies to a large number of villages in the area.

As my Mum in law says .

''Thaksin gave us 100 baht of government money (tax revenue) but he took back 500 baht of our own money for himself.''

Before you jump to conclusions I've been married for 17 out of the twenty years I've lived here.

I sometime wonder at the posters here as to whether they actually have contact with the locals on a day to day basis in a social context rather than a work employer employee context, and indeed how long many of these posters have lived here and actually have contact with the average Thai out of the expat areas.

Edited May 21, 2010 by siampolee

[kaengk]

One needs to remember that the Khmer people are very aware of the affects of a radical regime as many of the now Thai Khmer are people who fled to Thailand to escape communism .

Their descendants are very anti communist and indeed have no love for Thaksin and his policies. in our Surin village Thaksin is despised that also applies to a large number of villages in the area.

As my Mum in law says .

''Thaksin gave us 100 baht of government money (tax revenue) but he took back 500 baht of our own money for himself.''

Before you jump to conclusions I've been married for 17 out of the twenty years I've lived here.

I sometime wonder at the posters here as to whether they actually have contact with the locals on a day to day basis in a social context rather than a work employer employee context, and indeed how long many of these posters have lived here and actually have contact with the average Thai out of the expat areas.

Calling Thaksin a communist is like calling Abhisit a democracy-advocate. I think Thaksin is closer to the yellows in his right-wing control domination than he is to communism. All he has given the poor in this country is RESPECT. Abhisit et al has thrown just as much money at them, but he slanders them and removes their elected leaders from power at every opportunity.

[brahmburgers]

Chiang Rai should be taken off the list. I drive around town nearly every day. Yesterday, it was normal. Not a Red shirt nor a rowdy to by seen or heard. Same as all the days prior in recent weeks. The little Red stage in front of a hotel was disbanded, not even a hot dog vendor there. People were out and about, smiling, kids giggling, ....same same. Why is it on the list of 'troubled provinces' (or whatever the list is called)?

I'm so disappointed watching this video clip. I was born and raised in Khon Kaen. I watched local news yesterday, police and soldiers were just walking around. They didn't do anything to stop those silly red shirts!

I've visited Kon Kaen several times. No offense, but it's flat and boring - who's going to fret if parts of it get trashed. I do think the cops should at least pretend to do their jobs though, regardless of where they're posted. One of Abhisit's top priorities should be to fire hundreds of cops and their bosses. None of this 'assigned to an inactive post' crap - just fire the slaggards.

[siampolee]

kaengk.

If you had actually read the post I made and inwardly digested it you would see I didn't call Thaksin a communist however I said his ideals are considered radical by the Khmer people who suffered badly due to political extremism.

Sadly all Thaksin did was via his policies create a debt bondage society, no respect at all.

Do you remember that patronising week living as a local Thaksin did ?

Totally insulting and nauseating, privilege in tent, the Gadaffii and his Arab tent syndrome.

Thaksin respects no-one or nothing as has been shown rather violently and vividly over the last few months.

Edited May 21, 2010 by siampolee

[debcmai]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

How many people are protesting for the reds?

100,000 on their best day (when it WAS peaceful).

10,000 on most days after April 10 (after people saw the 'black shirts' and grenades used by the reds)

3,000 on their last day.

100's causing havoc around Bangkok.

100's causing havoc in the provinces of the red strong holds.

Of a country of 65,000,000 people, these are all VERY small numbers.

Now it is just lawless thugs causing havoc.

Actually the large English newspaper we are not allowed to quote says that their numbers on the low side daily were 15,000 and in the evenings would swell...OFTEN to 100,000. I had a feeling we were not being told the large numbers to make it seem like they had little or no support. I have said this before...having lived and worked in the provinces for 11 years...the reds have huge support...large numbers...the repeated mistake is to think otherwise.

[Roadman]

One needs to remember that the Khmer people are very aware of the affects of a radical regime as many of the now Thai Khmer are people who fled to Thailand to escape communism .

Their descendants are very anti communist and indeed have no love for Thaksin and his policies. in our Surin village Thaksin is despised that also applies to a large number of villages in the area.

As my Mum in law says .

''Thaksin gave us 100 baht of government money (tax revenue) but he took back 500 baht of our own money for himself.''

Before you jump to conclusions I've been married for 17 out of the twenty years I've lived here.

I sometime wonder at the posters here as to whether they actually have contact with the locals on a day to day basis in a social context rather than a work employer employee context, and indeed how long many of these posters have lived here and actually have contact with the average Thai out of the expat areas.

Calling Thaksin a communist is like calling Abhisit a democracy-advocate. I think Thaksin is closer to the yellows in his right-wing control domination than he is to communism. All he has given the poor in this country is RESPECT. Abhisit et al has thrown just as much money at them, but he slanders them and removes their elected leaders from power at every opportunity.

Amazing. You need to explain to me how PM Abhisit "removes their elected leaders from power at every opportunity". I never realised that when all this was happening he was in control of the Army for the removal of the thief Thaksin, and then the Electoral Commission (a body of many so that in itself is a major achievement) and Judicary all in one as the next Isaan set of idiots committed their own stupid downfalls.

Truely as you suggest to achieve all that from the position of Democrat MP is a remarkable if not godly achievement as it requires presence in many human bodies at once. A truely remarkable man or a very stupid original comment...

Edited May 21, 2010 by Roadman

[whybother]

Can't say I'm surprised by this latest development. How long before it's all out war?

How many people are protesting for the reds?

100,000 on their best day (when it WAS peaceful).

10,000 on most days after April 10 (after people saw the 'black shirts' and grenades used by the reds)

3,000 on their last day.

100's causing havoc around Bangkok.

100's causing havoc in the provinces of the red strong holds.

Of a country of 65,000,000 people, these are all VERY small numbers.

Now it is just lawless thugs causing havoc.

Actually the large English newspaper we are not allowed to quote says that their numbers on the low side daily were 15,000 and in the evenings would swell...OFTEN to 100,000. I had a feeling we were not being told the large numbers to make it seem like they had little or no support. I have said this before...having lived and worked in the provinces for 11 years...the reds have huge support...large numbers...the repeated mistake is to think otherwise.

Please PM me a link to any article that says that there was 100,000 at Ratchaprasong. Mostly what I read was 5,000 during the day, and 20,000 at night. But that was early on when they were at Ratchaprasong. Later those numbers didn't get that high.

[siampolee]

QUOTE

Human rights call for fair treatment of reds

Human rights call for fair treatment of the victims of Thaksins illegal war on drug (mass murder summary justice no trials)

Human rights call for fair treatment of the victims and their families regarding the Tak Bai massacre.

Human rights call for fair treatment of the missing ( sadly presumed murdered) prominent Muslim lawyer.

Human rights call for fair treatment of the victims of the looting, arson attacks and the disruption of life by the Red Shirts

Come on you HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS don't forget this is a two way street.

You woolly minded 50 satang intellectuals insulated from the harsh realities of life really need to come down from your ivory towers and talk to the ordinary people whose lives have been dramatically altered by Thaksin and his paid thugs.

As I recall you were not so vocal nor did Thaksin take note of your protests when he was committing crimes against the Thai people.

[nitehawk56]

My wife told me that they had a big explosion in the Big-C in Nakhon Sawan yesterday and the Army was moving in.

[DonDudley]

Any problem in Surin or Buriram??

Perhaps Khmer people have a bit more shall we say smarts.

I really did enjoy World Trade Center, the trouble must stop ASAP regardless of the cost.

Yea! They are so smart. They killed all the intellectuals and professionals. Leave the dummy and uneducated to run the country.

[daboyz1]

Any problem in Surin or Buriram??

Perhaps Khmer people have a bit more shall we say smarts.

I really did enjoy World Trade Center, the trouble must stop ASAP regardless of the cost.

Yea! They are so smart. They killed all the intellectuals and professionals. Leave the dummy and uneducated to run the country.

Yeah is it year 0 in Thaksin land yet?