Thai Political Violence Far From Over: Analysts

[webfact]

Thai political violence far from over: analysts

by Patrick Falby

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Two months of chaos on the streets of Bangkok are likely just a foretaste of political violence that could sweep through Thailand as protest movements become increasingly militant, analysts say.

Observers said that although Thailand has seen frequent bouts of civil unrest and coups in its turbulent history, it is now heading into uncharted territory as a split deepens between its elites and the rural and urban poor.

"There have been rumblings and grumblings in the past but never expression of anger and fury to this extent," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's prestigious Chulalongkorn University.

"The raw emotion behind political beliefs has increased the stakes in Thai politics. It has also deepened the polarisation," he added.

Troops dislodged anti-government "Red Shirt" protesters Wednesday from their sprawling encampment in a central commercial district, ending rallies which have seen at least 75 killed and some 1,800 wounded since mid-March.

Parts of Bangkok were reduced to smoky battle zones as Reds clashed with security forces in their campaign to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, but analysts said more trouble lies ahead.

The government has declared a state of emergency in 23 provinces as well as Bangkok to try to prevent the violence from spreading into the rural and impoverished northeast, which forms the Reds' heartland.

In a troubling sign that the fight was already being taken to the countryside, four provincial halls have been torched and besieged by protesters.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, from the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said violence is becoming part of the political culture in Thailand, where previously it had been anathema in the "Land of Smiles".

"Thirty-five buildings are burning, not only in Bangkok but over parts of Thailand. It signifies the radicalisation of Thai politics. I would call it the new radicalisation of Thailand," he told AFP.

"It's not the end of the conflict, it's just the beginning of another phase of war. Whatever you want to call it: civil war, guerrilla warfare, it's up to interpretation."

Despite a placid reputation that has helped foster a lucrative tourism industry, Thailand has plunged into regular bouts of political crisis, including 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932.

The country has suffered regular episodes of violence pitting soldiers against protesters, most notably in 1992 when King Bhumibol Adulyadej made a dramatic intervention to end hostilities.

The Reds complain that Thailand's poor have been left behind while the Bangkok middle class enjoy the fruits of decades of economic growth and the elites hold the reins of political and military power.

They are mostly supporters of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup. Celebrated for populist policies that benefited the poor, Thaksin was also accused of gross human rights abuses and corruption.

Despite the criticism, Thaksin and his allies have won every election in a decade and Abhisit faces a tough fight in the next vote, due by the end of 2011.

Thailand's elites see the Reds merely as Thaksin's paid footsoldiers, but William Case, director of City University's Southeast Asia Research Centre in Hong Kong, said their movement was becoming increasingly sophisticated.

"They've got a lot more organisational know-how, a lot more awareness, a lot more capacity than before. They're able to act on class resentments now," he said.

"Once they've been mobilised in this way, it becomes very difficult to stop it."

Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Heidelberg University, said the Reds had "galvanised into a people's army" mimicking the tactics of rival Yellow Shirt demonstrators who occupied Bangkok's airports in 2008.

"If you continue seeing the use of demonstrations to pressure change in an increasingly violent fashion, then people become accustomed to seeing it," Chambers said.

"Opposing mobs become the norm and then democracy is simply a dream. Elected governments are a sideshow to opposing mobs."

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-05-20

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[jucel]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

Edited May 20, 2010 by jucel

[Crushdepth]

The reds in our neighbourhood aren't wearing red anymore.

[Old Man River]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

This is a post right off twitter from last night. Either you are the original author or you have plagiarized. Which is it?

[jucel]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

This is a post right off twitter from last night. Either you are the original author or you have plagiarized. Which is it?

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

[LaoPo]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

If, just if, you quoted from another source it's nothing more than polite to name your source; it's in Thaivisa's rules as well.

Apart from that I would appreciate it if you can elaborate your vague pointing. Who are you referring to....?

Also, it's not polite and not done to criticize others on their use of language. We're not all from the same country nor are we all as perfect as you seem to be.

LaoPo

Edited May 20, 2010 by LaoPo

[ballpoint]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

It's a pile of lies spread in a deliberate attempt to further divide the country. The evidence that has been presented is clearly showing that the reds have been conducting an orchestrated campaign to deal destruction to Bangkok. Central World was one of the victims because of its location. They've had weeks of being camped next to it, using its facilities, and preparing for its destruction.

I do not believe that Thai political violence is far from over. I do believe that there will be some major revelations made when the court is asked to consider the terrorism charges against Thaksin. Reds and blacks captured over the past weeks have been talking, and not all of them are talking Thai. Why was the government confident enough to freeze all asset movements of the Shinawatras and their associates? Why did the leaders give themselves up shortly after this happened (well, apart from that habitual escapologist Arisman who has clearly learned a thing or two about fleeing the scene from his multi national master)? Why have a number of posters here specifically stated that Burmese and Cambodian were spoken by the men in black? Why were the terrorism charges against Thaksin removed, and are up for reconsideration next week? (For those thinking it's because the court had a change in heart, are you sure about that? The squealing of those captured goes on, the evidence will be presented). The way Thailand deals with one neighbour in particular will be shaped by what comes out of those mouths, and the language it comes out in.

Perversely, the reds could well end up with what their followers here have been telling us they were all about, with a government that has the rural interest at heart governing the country. Unfortunately for them, but not for the country, it's the same government we now have. Although, in Thailand, land of apathy and short term gain, I fear the next elections will be all about the vote buying and the same old corrupt blocks of MP's.

[Old Man River]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

[NaiGreg]

Which is more credible?

Analyst: Violence is far from over.

Analyst: Violence recurs every 18 years based on recent history. Get ready for 2028.

Analyst: Violence is over by far. Thais rak-sa-ngop!

Pick your crystal ball. Some guy named Patrick Falby has expressed his forecast-du-jour.

Reason for edit: math error. addition is almost impossible with more than one digit.

Edited May 20, 2010 by NaiGreg

[webfact]

[quote name='Old Man River' date='2010-05-20 17:19:10' post='3624219']

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

This is a post right off twitter from last night. Either you are the original author or you have plagiarized. Which is it?

I assume you are an American that is bastardising the English Lanuguage AGAIN . The word is plagiarism. THERE ARE NO Z's in the word. If you are going to use the English language, use it properly without your americanizms!!! and also stop pronouncing short vowels as long vowels when you talk!!

Warning: posts regarding others spelling and grammar not only hijacks the topic but is poor netiquette. If repeated I will suspend your posting rights without prior warning. I hope you got my point

[oldenuf2knobette]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

A provocative theory. But I smell a sophisticated PR attempt to deflect blame from Taksin and the Reds. Who gains anything from a 'third hand' theory, except the Reds as they have always been loathe to accept responsibility for violence caused by their supporters.

Selecting between competing theories the simplest is most likely to be correct. This is just too convoluted.

And please name sources if you are not the author. This is necessary for a proper debate on the forum.

[viking75]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

[Scott]

First an apology to Webfact, he was nice enough to issue a public warning. I, however, had already deleted some offending posts.

Please stay on topic and attempt to address the issues posed by posters rather than comments about the poster.

Thanks.

[mausplan]

I just looked at the 36 locations ( link attached below). It struck me also that Central Group has a disproportionate share of the damage given that Gaysorn was a backdrop to the Red stage and so many of them slept against it each night. They had to walk across the Road to CW.

It is hard to imagine a more obvious symbol of the "evil amart" than Paragon yet it escaped the damage inflicted on buildings directly opposite.

As police evidence builds up it is underpinned by the numerous references from the Red Stage only yesterday morning about burning and looting include one from a speaker who referred to waiting for instructions to commence.

Once again , at the bottom of all this is money. If it is shown to be true that this was largely pre planned the arsonists didn't buy material and prepare without money from somewhere. After all they have to pay rent ,send kids to school and pay the phone bill. Somewhere , someone will have a ledger showing how much was paid to Somchai and Somying for whatever they do.

Don't you think last nights activities puts the entire last two months into a completely different light and also gives a rationale as to why the Red rejected the Gov peace plan and seemingly could never define what it was they actually wanted apart for the collapse of the Gov.

http://bit.ly/8ZoNq1

[ballpoint]

... then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

So, it is all about him then?

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good rant.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

Did they burn it down afterwards? No? They weren't real reds then.

[hardy1943]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

It is starting to become a Cause and that scares the hel_l out me.

[cm19]

What a goof. Using an article that wasn't his, getting pissed off about getting caught, then criticizing the other guys grammar.

[Ulysses G.]

Why have a number of posters here specifically stated that Burmese and Cambodian were spoken by the men in black?

I'm not taking sides, but every post I read about participants speaking Burmese and Cambodian was - supposedly - concerning soldiers who were hired because the regular army refused to kill Thais. However, I am very sceptical about both charges.

[rabo]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

It's a pile of lies spread in a deliberate attempt to further divide the country. The evidence that has been presented is clearly showing that the reds have been conducting an orchestrated campaign to deal destruction to Bangkok. Central World was one of the victims because of its location. They've had weeks of being camped next to it, using its facilities, and preparing for its destruction.

Agree fully, a pack of lies. Easy to spot with it's propagandist style and vacuous logic.

[SiamRose]

Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years?

I don't know. Can you tell us who you are referring to? Or at least provide some links so we can understand better. Thanks.

[gemini81]

my concern of violence is the troops trained by Seh Daeng. And are the roads to Bangkok blocked off yet from troops or mobs of people entering? Last I heard this afternoon, the roads are open with minimal checks. I would hate to see more mob members enter in attempt to create more violence. Anyone heard anything?

[teacher50]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

If Jucel is right, then was Seh Daeng also employed to cast Thaksin in a bad light? He was interviewed about a week before his death, saying that, if the red leaders surrendered, the reds would know how to carry on on their own and would be supported by Thaksin and others.

Also, did the third party arrange for Thaksin to employ his new slightly less than impressive lawyer to help cast Thaksin in a bad light?

(see interview Al Jazeera and Robert Amsterdam)

And the government delay in dealing with the 'sit-in' was also planned so that the reds would be seen in a bad light?

[asiawatcher]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

I understand the assumption but I have a theory behind this - Thaksin made a boast within the last 7 days he had a trump card. It was fairly obvious the army were going to shut the stages down and when they did two things happened.

1 - satellites were set up to draw troops away from the main stages - to thin ranks (presumably) which is an old army trick - spread the aggressors thinly etc and then that would prolong the 'battle' but the inevitable would happen - but

2 - I think the 'hits' have been carefully orchestrated - they hit the thai economy by sabotage of banks, media and international perception of collapse of retail showing nothing is safe by taking down Central World etc. The banks where all the 'seized' assets belonged were a follow on to Bangkok Bank where Thaksin had most of his funds. The additional banks were where the money trail list held their cash assets. The hits on the stock exchange and narcotics bureau, and civil district buildings et al were a direct undermining activity aimed purely at causing international reassessment and condemnation.

Whoever did this is committing the gravest terrorist act and accordingly should be arrested, charged and removed from society but it is all a bit too covert at this point. I would certainly start with Thaksin and work back. I also think this is an Interpol matter now as no way would it be intelligent to have Thaksin brought back to Thailand as he would create riots simply by being here through the misguided followers.

[asiawatcher]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

Yes - ignorance is bliss

[jcbangkok]

This is really worth a reading ...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/LE13Ae01.html

[viking75]

... then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

So, it is all about him then?

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

Don't let the truth get in the way of a good rant.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

Did they burn it down afterwards? No? They weren't real reds then.

Anybody who see BBC Al Jazeera and CNN this morning know now what fool you are. never look at media that you don't like.

sorry and hope you blinkers go away sometime soon.

also sorry that so many troll and ignorant people can post untruth like this. but that is free speach. something poor thias not allowed.

OP is opinion of many analysts and not rants of bangkok bar going expats. it is very well considered piece totally unlike yours.

Edited May 20, 2010 by viking75

[AsiaCheese]

Why have a number of posters here specifically stated that Burmese and Cambodian were spoken by the men in black?

I'm not taking sides, but every post I read about participants speaking Burmese and Cambodian was - supposedly - concerning soldiers who were hired because the regular army refused to kill Thais. However, I am very sceptical about both charges.

Long live conspiracy theories. Actually -- they do, and live well. You guys should get yourselves a job in the movie industry. But hey, you can't, because it's controlled by the Fed (or something).

[saintofsilence]

Doe's Thaksin have shares in CNN ? I saw it mentioned in You Tube comments today .

[viking75]

If anybody here still argue that OP is wrong ill informed.

another bank just gone to raging fire in din Deang and army shoot and miss people lit fire. MCOT

[selftaopath]

I would prefer you view on the matter rather than your fastidious observation!

I have thought about it (since I first read it). Most of the fires weren't haphazard as CRES has been discussing on TV.

It could be who is being alluded to. I don't know. No matter how this plays out, I don't think we will ever know for sure anyway.

If this speads which it will, all those in power in elite will be equal, skint and up for mob justice as nobody can ever trust thai court again. it is beginning of messy end for these previous untouchable because have been outed now by internet and modern technology. hope it is painful for them to lose their power and money. We see already names coming out and they will turn on each other as now (why gov is so change mind every 5 minutes and small men on CRES different every week) then Thaksin can come back and clear this scum off political scene for ever.

only fool think it over because only just starting to get angry now. 80 dead and shooting lady live on TV not help, foreign press get shot in temple with many others after gov say it is sanctuary.

i visit phuket last weekend and many reds even there, I outside taxi stand at family mart and they watch on TV. well angry with gov and not afraid even in dem heartland to shout and curse at them.

Aren't the rich and powerful already equal in some respects which might be the underlying cause of some of this mayhem? Granted many reds want TS to get his money and power back but consider this (posted before so please excuse me):

A feeding frenzy:

Most, if not all, elite, army, police, politicians, and business owners FEED off of Thailand. Few give anything back unless they are practically guaranteed significant financial rewards. It remains a constant that every faction wants more and more of the “blood” of Thailand. Most do not contribute to the Thai society or the poor (who have absolutely no power/representation). Most feeders do not contribute to something as basic as paying taxes. The red shirts (blood colored) boss was convicted of this and much more. It is like animals swarming over the carcass of a defenseless, dying, or dead source of economic nourishment. They push, shove, bite for more of what they seek i.e. more money/power. Regardless of who is pushed back of the FEEDING dish the battle continues, and the efforts to gain ground toward a more vital part of the carcass will continue if there is little/no law, consequences and corruption is the norm.