Thai Political Violence Far From Over: Analysts

[LaoPo]

Peace returns to Bangkok, but trouble looms

10:30am EDT

By Jason Szep and Ambika Ahuja - Analysis

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Order is returning to Bangkok after nine weeks of the worst political violence in modern Thai history, but more clashes or a larger insurrection loom ahead unless authorities quell anger at the heart of recent protests.

Without major reforms to a political system protesters claim favors an "establishment elite" over the rural masses, this week's bloody dispersal of protesters occupying Bangkok's commercial heart won't end a polarizing political crisis and could add fuel to the fire.

The "red shirt" protest movement's figurehead, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a graft-convicted populist billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup, told Reuters the army's tough dispersal of protesters could spawn guerrilla warfare.

Analysts say he may be right.

"The suppression of the demonstrations does not in any way end the movement, or at least the sentiments and patronage networks behind it," said Duncan McCargo, a University of Leeds professor of Southeast Asian politics.

But after more than two months of unrest that has killed 81 people and wounded more than 1,800, most expect a lull in the violence as the protesters regroup. Its leadership, run by a trio calling themselves the "three stooges" -- adopting a name given them by the government -- has fragmented with most in custody.

In Bangkok, where their festive, flag-waving rallies in March began to win over middle classes, the red shirts are now reviled after their six-week occupation of the city's commercial heart culminated in a night of arson that terrified the city of 15 million people and destroyed property worth millions of dollars.

Residents gasped and some cried as television footage showed Central World, Southeast Asia's second-biggest department store, gutted and nearly destroyed in smoldering ruins.

But in the heartlands of the north and northeast, a Thaksin stronghold home to just over half of Thailand's 67 million people, images of Bangkok burning drew cheers -- an unleashed violence that including the storming of the governor's house in Chiang Mai, the region's largest city.

That's why Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his royalist backers should worry, analysts say.

"The people in the provinces aren't likely to shed any tears for the fact that some rich punk in Bangkok can no longer shop at Central World, when dozens of people 'like them' lay dead at the hands of the government," said Federico Ferrara, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

"There could be a bit of a lull in their activities now, but I would expect that if the government keeps their leaders in jail, it won't be long before this turns into another cause celebre," he added.

RURAL DISCONTENT

The high-profile arrest of the protest leaders, some accused of terrorism by the government, could embolden the movement over the longer term by playing to their argument they are victims of double standards in a society that favors the elite.

Laying siege to an area to dislodge governments has become a way of life in Thai politics. In 2008, yellow-shirted protesters who opposed Thaksin's allies in the previous government occupied the prime minister's office for three months and then blockaded Bangkok's main airport until a court expelled the government.

Instead of going to jail, one of the figures of that movement, Kasit Piromya, went on to become foreign minister.

Cases like that are at the heart of the discontent among the rural and urban poor in a country where the richest 20 percent of the population earn about 55 percent of the income while the poorest fifth get 4 percent.

"Not much has changed in terms of the support for the red shirts' among parts of the population. They rioted last year and it turned into a much worse riot this year. That shows the underlying problem remains and has not been addressed by those in power," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist. "But without a strong central leadership, it's going to be difficult for them to regroup any time soon," he said.

"The radicals will likely go underground. The organization may keep going in the provinces led by their own regional leaders who have their own news outlets and their own views on what's going on."

A bigger question is why is this all happening now.

Continues here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

[RKASA]

Peace returns to Bangkok, but trouble looms

10:30am EDT

By Jason Szep and Ambika Ahuja - Analysis

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Order is returning to Bangkok after nine weeks of the worst political violence in modern Thai history, but more clashes or a larger insurrection loom ahead unless authorities quell anger at the heart of recent protests.

Without major reforms to a political system protesters claim favors an "establishment elite" over the rural masses, this week's bloody dispersal of protesters occupying Bangkok's commercial heart won't end a polarizing political crisis and could add fuel to the fire.

The "red shirt" protest movement's figurehead, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a graft-convicted populist billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup, told Reuters the army's tough dispersal of protesters could spawn guerrilla warfare.

Analysts say he may be right.

"The suppression of the demonstrations does not in any way end the movement, or at least the sentiments and patronage networks behind it," said Duncan McCargo, a University of Leeds professor of Southeast Asian politics.

But after more than two months of unrest that has killed 81 people and wounded more than 1,800, most expect a lull in the violence as the protesters regroup. Its leadership, run by a trio calling themselves the "three stooges" -- adopting a name given them by the government -- has fragmented with most in custody.

In Bangkok, where their festive, flag-waving rallies in March began to win over middle classes, the red shirts are now reviled after their six-week occupation of the city's commercial heart culminated in a night of arson that terrified the city of 15 million people and destroyed property worth millions of dollars.

Residents gasped and some cried as television footage showed Central World, Southeast Asia's second-biggest department store, gutted and nearly destroyed in smoldering ruins.

But in the heartlands of the north and northeast, a Thaksin stronghold home to just over half of Thailand's 67 million people, images of Bangkok burning drew cheers -- an unleashed violence that including the storming of the governor's house in Chiang Mai, the region's largest city.

That's why Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his royalist backers should worry, analysts say.

"The people in the provinces aren't likely to shed any tears for the fact that some rich punk in Bangkok can no longer shop at Central World, when dozens of people 'like them' lay dead at the hands of the government," said Federico Ferrara, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

"There could be a bit of a lull in their activities now, but I would expect that if the government keeps their leaders in jail, it won't be long before this turns into another cause celebre," he added.

RURAL DISCONTENT

The high-profile arrest of the protest leaders, some accused of terrorism by the government, could embolden the movement over the longer term by playing to their argument they are victims of double standards in a society that favors the elite.

Laying siege to an area to dislodge governments has become a way of life in Thai politics. In 2008, yellow-shirted protesters who opposed Thaksin's allies in the previous government occupied the prime minister's office for three months and then blockaded Bangkok's main airport until a court expelled the government.

Instead of going to jail, one of the figures of that movement, Kasit Piromya, went on to become foreign minister.

Cases like that are at the heart of the discontent among the rural and urban poor in a country where the richest 20 percent of the population earn about 55 percent of the income while the poorest fifth get 4 percent.

"Not much has changed in terms of the support for the red shirts' among parts of the population. They rioted last year and it turned into a much worse riot this year. That shows the underlying problem remains and has not been addressed by those in power," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist. "But without a strong central leadership, it's going to be difficult for them to regroup any time soon," he said.

"The radicals will likely go underground. The organization may keep going in the provinces led by their own regional leaders who have their own news outlets and their own views on what's going on."

A bigger question is why is this all happening now.

Continues here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64J46P20100520

LaoPo

No - its just color madness. If the PR works we can all put head back in the sand. After all, they are only dirty uneducated lazy misfits that won't work for them self. I read it here 10,000 time in the last year alone so now I believe it too. This will all just fade away. Repeat 10,000 times. Maybe click heels to.

[yoshiwara]

The thrust of the argument has a typically petty-bourgeois dynamic and shows a shallow understanding of class politics.

The reds have constantly pushed a fake class war propaganda and a number of lazy academics have fallen for it.

Fortunately the Singapore Government saw through the Thaksin-Red BS for what it was.

The first point to be made is that the red movement is not class based.

There are no economic class demands.

None.

If there were then we would have a programme to discuss.

If there were then Thaksin and the reds would be exposed.

So they are very careful to hide any class interests as it might cross some of Thaksin's own 'elite'.

Secondly, even if the reds do not represent the national peasantry.

Where is the party? Nationally based?

Even if it was a peasant party, the fact is that with all the bombast about class war,

The peasantry have never been a revolutionary class.

Only the proletariat can do this, assuming that the objective is to overthrow capitalism.

Now even Thaksin does not want to do this.

One thing we can say about socialist revolution is that the working class seeks to seize the means of production and the wealth of the country.

The Thai red movement seeks only to destroy it.

The Thai red movement has over the last week attacked the livelihoods of thousands of Bangkok workers.

Not one group of organised workers has actively supported them.

The red movement is anti-working class and reactionary to its very core.

Why?

Because its essence is the furtherance of the cause of Thaksin Shinawatra.

If you want a real class demand, then this would be:

---Arm the Bangkok workers to defend their workplaces and neighbourhoods against the Thaksin reds.

For the workers! Against the reds! Down with Thaksin!

[gymboy33]

The thrust of the argument has a typically petty-bourgeois dynamic and shows a shallow understanding of class politics.

The reds have constantly pushed a fake class war propaganda and a number of lazy academics have fallen for it.

Fortunately the Singapore Government saw through the Thaksin-Red BS for what it was.

The first point to be made is that the red movement is not class based.

There are no economic class demands.

None.

If there were then we would have a programme to discuss.

If there were then Thaksin and the reds would be exposed.

So they are very careful to hide any class interests as it might cross some of Thaksin's own 'elite'.

Secondly, even if the reds do not represent the national peasantry.

Where is the party? Nationally based?

Even if it was a peasant party, the fact is that with all the bombast about class war,

The peasantry have never been a revolutionary class.

Only the proletariat can do this, assuming that the objective is to overthrow capitalism.

Now even Thaksin does not want to do this.

One thing we can say about socialist revolution is that the working class seeks to seize the means of production and the wealth of the country.

The Thai red movement seeks only to destroy it.

The Thai red movement has over the last week attacked the livelihoods of thousands of Bangkok workers.

Not one group of organised workers has actively supported them.

The red movement is anti-working class and reactionary to its very core.

Why?

Because its essence is the furtherance of the cause of Thaksin Shinawatra.

If you want a real class demand, then this would be:

---Arm the Bangkok workers to defend their workplaces and neighbourhoods against the Thaksin reds.

For the workers! Against the reds! Down with Thaksin!

i dont think any of yr hate speeches are needed now...

[LaoPo]

Bangkok Begins to Restore Order

excerpt:

In addition to rebuilding the damaged neighborhoods of Bangkok, analysts said the government should quickly reach out to try to quell some of the anger that helped trigger the protest.

That should include calling elections soon so those dissatisfied with the current situation can vent their anger through a vote rather than violence, said Somchai Phagapasvivat, a Bangkok-based political and economic analyst. The government has to "try to isolate the hard-core [groups] and reconcile with the peaceful elements," he said. "They have to draw up a road map to more participation" in government by the groups that feel left out.

—Wilawan Watcharasakwet contributed to this article.

From:

The Wall Street Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405..._MIDDLENewsIntl

LaoPo

[JemJem]

I fear that Thaksin will never pay for his crimes.

Until now, I have refrained from writing on this whole matter. To put it simplistically, I am neither a Yellow nor a Red supporter. I don't like the 'looking down on rural folks' attitude of many Yellows ; nor the destructive behavior of many Reds and their love for Thaksin.

Hard to understand the love some folks here on this forum have for Thaksin. He is far from the 'clean, socialist hero' figure some try to portray him to be. And...what about the corruption and the human rights violations he is responsible for ?!

[sarahsbloke]

Division is clearly part of their plan. What the government needs to do is not just busing them back to where they were right away. But to re-educate them. Many of them will be enlightened and even become excellent human resource for democracy. Failing to do so will only allow Thaksin to continue planting seeds of hatred.

From the 20th century onwards, Siam gradually consolidated its control over Isan through a programme of "Thaification". The introduction of a national school system in the 1920s replaced instruction by monks in the Isan Lao language with teaching in the Thai language only. Radio and television, when they began, also broadcast in Thai. They included (and still do) twice daily broadcasts of the national anthem.

Even after the Revolution in 1932, which the democratic rule started, Isan had been ignored from newly 'democratic' Thai government. Most of the region was underdeveloped. Apparently new or necessary infrastructure were hardly built. Albeit the biggest part of Thailand, until now, there are still only two railways in the region and most of modern paved roads were built in the sixties and seventies.

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic cleansing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

The traditional way of dealing with a conquered people is

1) kill all the men

2) have your army impregnate all the women

or like they did in Cambodia.

Edited May 21, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[whybother]

<snip>

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic clensing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

[Siam Simon]

<snip>

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic clensing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

Am I the only one thinking that whybother and jcbangkok are the same poster (returning banned poster Plus)?

[whybother]

<snip>

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic clensing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

Am I the only one thinking that whybother and jcbangkok are the same poster (returning banned poster Plus)?

Not the same poster. Is it a crime to ask questions to get people to explain where they get their information from?

and of course, the replying to inane posts really adds up to.

Edited May 21, 2010 by whybother

[Siam Simon]

<snip>

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic clensing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

Am I the only one thinking that whybother and jcbangkok are the same poster (returning banned poster Plus)?

Not the same poster. Is it a crime to ask questions to get people to explain where they get their information from?

and of course, the replying to inane posts really adds up to.

Forty posts. Hurry, hurry.

[SomTumTiger]

The violence is not over, but it will be sharply curtailed, and just as an electric shock can start a heart - I see the imagines of their capital burning will have the same effect on the majority of Thais. They have traveled through the worst political period in modern history, and will become stronger as a result. The fact that PM Abhisit is still in charge, and seems much stronger after than during - is, I think a great thing for Thailand. Remember a week ago, or so, Sanoh said that Thailand needed the "Old politicians" to lead the country" when speaking about Gen Chavalit? As with most of his statements - Sanoh was dead wrong.

This "old style" politician will be replaced by people like Abhisit and Korn - people who know how to use the computer, are aware of the perception of things, aware of the image they present to the world, and aware of how much wrong has been wrought on the country, by these damned old men.

The property and land tax, that will be passed easily now, will become the single most important law for social justice, in the kingdom's history.

[sarahsbloke]

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

You want to justify a different percentage, feel free .... and then explain why Issan don't have your percentage of representatives in the government.

[brahmburgers]

<snip>

Looks like they already tried that ...... it hasn't worked.

The big problem is 66 percent of the Thai nationals are from Issan, so really they should be in charge .... and unless someone wants to do a bit of ethnic clensing and kill off all the people from Issan, they will keep winning elections, then be ousted by coup, etc.

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

I also want to know where the 66% number comes from. Issanites voted pretty much as a block in recent elections, but that was what they were paid to do. More recently, they've been heavily indoctrinated by hate speeches, and that's been rather effective. So much so, that the hate mongers (Thaksin and his henchmen) probably think it's gone too far (even they didn't want to see downtown Bkk burn so furiously), but they can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Back to the number 66. It's probably more like 33% of Thais are from Issan. Either way, largest % of citizens doesn't translate in to commandeering the country. If that were the case, then California would dictate US policies, or Shan State would set the political agenda for Burma.

There are things called 'elections' which Issanites need to learn about. There should be unhindered campaigning (no fear of bodily harm), open-debates (no fear of anti-defamation lawsuits), and fair elections (no payments, and no-one looking over voters' shoulders). Those are just some of the facets of democracy that Red followers don't adhere to. A massive education campaign - about what democracy and elections are about - is needed for Thailand.

[whybother]

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

You want to justify a different percentage, feel free .... and then explain why Issan don't have your percentage of representatives in the government.

Check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_...Representatives

It explains basically where the population is, and where the representation is. Everyone is equally represented.

If you have a source that says 66% of the Thais are from Isaan, then please share.

edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isan#Demographics .... this says 20 mil. (which is less than 30%)

Edited May 21, 2010 by whybother

[rametindallas]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

Very Interesting. Thanks. I'm sending a copy to my Amatya & Sino-Thai friends for their feedback.

[brahmburgers]

Where do you get that 66% of Thais are from Isaan?

You want to justify a different percentage, feel free .... and then explain why Issan don't have your percentage of representatives in the government.

There are also roughly 50% female in Thailand, and 7% katoy. Are you saying women and katoy should be represented in elected gov't seats accordingly?

Incidentally, 100% of Red leaders are men (maybe some are katoy, I don't have inside data on that {pun intended}) - You want to fire half the Red Shirt leaders and replace them with women?

What's in the pipe you're smoking this morning?

[rametindallas]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders.

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

Good but one error - Min size of bullets by army is a 308 and that takes out half a football of anything in front of it. The 'execution' of Sae Daeng whilst talking to the NY Times reporter was a black shirt and most likely a .222. Army would have blown his head clean off and it had to be small calibre as he lived for 3 days before expiring. A 308 as said, he would be instantly removed from this life

From my General friends they tell me he was taken down as he was no longer listening to the commands of the reds so they executed him then blamed it on the Govt but there is no way they used small calibre. It was a hit from about 100 metres within the red camp. Forensics will verify. The executioner may never be known.

correction: the M16 fires .223 (5.56X45 NATO) and is acccurate to 600 meters but the bullet is easily deflected by leaves etc.. It is meant to injure as it will take some other soldiers out of action to care for the wounded. M60 fires .308 (7.62X55 NATO) is a light machine gun and has great penetrating ability. This round was uses in the '50s in the M1A1. Sorry to be a stickler. BTW even though the RTA carries the M16, all of the above calibres are available with heavy barrels for sniper duty.

[yoshiwara]

Bangkok Begins to Restore Order

excerpt:

In addition to rebuilding the damaged neighborhoods of Bangkok, analysts said the government should quickly reach out to try to quell some of the anger that helped trigger the protest.

That should include calling elections soon so those dissatisfied with the current situation can vent their anger through a vote rather than violence, said Somchai Phagapasvivat, a Bangkok-based political and economic analyst. The government has to "try to isolate the hard-core [groups] and reconcile with the peaceful elements," he said. "They have to draw up a road map to more participation" in government by the groups that feel left out.

—Wilawan Watcharasakwet contributed to this article.

From:

The Wall Street Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405..._MIDDLENewsIntl

LaoPo

After every riotous activity the reds use this as a justification to push Thaksin's agenda which is to get control of the army leadership appointments.

As do you.

Reconcile with the peaceful elements?

We have yet to see that.

However, Thaksin's time line is now in flames.

So save your breath.

Edited May 21, 2010 by yoshiwara

[Randee]

This is really worth a reading ...

Your post was fascinating. Very deep into it. Too deep for me but I get the point. Professional Rebellionists. Scary. It should be given for everyone to read.

(i guess its because i'm a newbie but I can post this with the link you posted)

[Randee]

What a goof. Using an article that wasn't his, getting pissed off about getting caught, then criticizing the other guys grammar.

yes haha what a goof indeed

[Randee]

Surprisingly enough the name Thaksin still rings a bell here. For what I have been observing , Thanksin is History. Today is the Red . No one except the Reds themselves is going to seek justice for their friends , love ones , relatives and to those who die innocently without knowing what had hit them on the head.

They wants revenge and are after those who thinks they are above the law and ordered the shooting of hundreds or thousands of innocent victims.Everyone saw either on tv. or from web, how Sae Daeng was being assassinated by a sniper right at his temper.

The government can denied anything or having involvement in that action. Very clearly, Sae Daeng is an obstacle, celebrity , enemy and a threat to the government. Whoever holds the power and controlled the military is the one who gave the orders .

No one would think it is Thaksin or the Red protester. Probably they like to blame it on neighboring military who has done the job.

The ones who order the firing spree on the red protesters and the innocence highly believes they are above the law. They never thought of it as murder. Killing of innocence or another human is like having a cup of coffee over lunch. Because, I supposed they do it all the time and has gotten immune to it .

The reds now and future are a unified bunch of dangerous under ground guerrillas. They lead themselves and are revengeful to those who has murdered their comrades.

This will not end soon until the amart steps down and give way for a new election.

Bloop

Good but one error - Min size of bullets by army is a 308 and that takes out half a football of anything in front of it. The 'execution' of Sae Daeng whilst talking to the NY Times reporter was a black shirt and most likely a .222. Army would have blown his head clean off and it had to be small calibre as he lived for 3 days before expiring. A 308 as said, he would be instantly removed from this life

From my General friends they tell me he was taken down as he was no longer listening to the commands of the reds so they executed him then blamed it on the Govt but there is no way they used small calibre. It was a hit from about 100 metres within the red camp. Forensics will verify. The executioner may never be known.

wow the already deep plot thickens!

[Randee]

Personally I expect Thaksin to make good on his implied threat of an insurgent campaign. I don't think it will help him though. Occupying the city centre was ok by many, but the post-surrender arson was a PR disaster that has significantly damaged the movement.

There's plenty of red households in my street and today there's not a scrap of red in sight. They are embarrassed and don't want to talk about it.

absolutely ... they've lost my sympathy and god knows who elses. i was all for their cause but not now. but what do i matter anyway i gues

[Randee]

Every time I hear that the poor are left behind with democracy in a same sentence I start laughing since they are oxymoron. If they want to carry the poor by the rest of the society then you need to have communism or socialism government.

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

It is really interesting that I see people who claim to be soo knowledgeable here in TV speaking disrespectfully to Thai who have not been give a chance to get a better education form the government. In this day and age most civilized people view the right to an education as a human right. If the people like yourself have so much disrespect for the uneducated poor in Thailand it would be far more productive is you were make an effort the demand that the Thai government guarantee a good education for all its citizens instead of trying to make yourself superior by demeaning the poor and uneducated by calling them names. Try helping the Thai people not tear them down. On numerous occasions you have been asked to stick to a topic and stop your rants and name calling. We could allhave a better discourse if Everyone was asked to adhere to these curtesies.

Regards,

i did agree with him at first but now you've said this i must agree with you. you are right

[Randee]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds with one stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.

Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins.

May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.

I have a rather difficult time accepting this. Not because I would put it past anyone to use this situation for their own interest, but simply because if it was true Thaksin should be out screaming bloody murder.

He should be releasing hundreds of videos and statements saying it wasn't him, and telling any red shirts to go home and stop burning things. They would listen to him.

Where are his pleas? He seems quite content with the mayhem. He even predicted it. Also, this is kind of quick to come out. We still have several more days of possible arson attacks. How do we know ASTV won't be torched? Unless the person releasing this fanciful position is the same one coordinating the torching.

If anything, I suspect Thaksin himself chose these targets for a reason. Maybe there was an insurance angle to it. I don't know. I suspect the real reasons will leak out over the next few years as the whole story unfolds. Probably impossible to say right now.

For me, this theory is just too convenient for the red shirts, who are otherwise looking for a way to deflect blame from themselves. When you start bringing up secret conspiracy theories, remember that the knife cuts both ways. Unless you are prepared with a little more solid evidence, the only people who are likely to believe this story are the reds themselves. That may have been the intent all along.

Burn the city and cause mayhem, but make the up country red supporters believe it was a "third hand" so you don't destroy the movement. Much more likely scenario in my opinion.

The real originator of this on his twitter page (not the guy who posted it) has backed off from it. He has received a lot of flak along with additional info that has poked holes in his conspiracy theory. He now goes with Thaksin as the culprit along with everybody else.

ah right ok. thanks for this info another response 1 or 2 before yours also is true

[sarahsbloke]

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

Well all I can say is Mrs Redshirt (my wife not from Issan) is working hard to provide an education for herself and her 12 year old daughter.

After she married me, I started putting her through highschool, her daughter through highschool, and then probably both of them through university.

But not all the poor Thai ladies can find (or want) a white man to marry, how would you suggest the rest of the poor (family income of 4000bht a month) manage to send their children to school beyond age 12?

I believe your post fully justifies the redshirt cause, the Thai middle classes and higher classes refuse to help their poorer countrymen (against the teachings of their own religion) and so must be forced into civilization (and democracy?) to achieve parity with the rest of the world.

Edited May 21, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[whybother]

As we know both do not work in globalizes world. The poor have to realize they cannot continue to get handout from the middle and high class. They need to work to develop themselves and the best is to invest in their children education. But over her that is the last thing of the Thai poor in particular the Red Shirt that they think about. They brought their children to the rally site, endangering them. It seem over here the children are commodities, and can be used as the family pleases.

So Mr./Mrs. Red Shirt you want equality, become educated and work hard for it. No one is willing to give handout for ever

Well all I can say is Mrs Redshirt (my wife not from Issan) is working hard to provide an education for herself and her 12 year old daughter.

After she married me, I started putting her through highschool, her daughter through highschool, and then probably both of them through university.

But not all the poor Thai ladies can find (or want) a white man to marry, how would you suggest the rest of the poor (family income of 4000bht a month) manage to send their children to school beyond age 12?

I believe your post fully justifies the redshirt cause, the middle classes and higher classes refuse to help others (against the teachings of their own religion) and so must be forced into civilization to achieve parity with the rest of the world.

The Abhisit government have made education free to the age of at least 15 ... maybe 18.

And the middle class pay taxes which is support this.

Edited May 21, 2010 by whybother

[sarahsbloke]

The Abhisit government have made education free to the age of at least 15 ... maybe 18.

I paid about 4000 bht for the books and uniforms at the free government school this semester.

If I were only earning 4000bht a month, this would have been a problem .... and the girl would more than likely be peeling tobacco leaves on the farm, with everyone elses 12 year olds.

[sarahsbloke]

The Abhisit government have made education free to the age of at least 15 ... maybe 18.

I paid about 4000 bht for the books and uniforms at the free government school this semester.

If I were only earning 4000bht a month, this would have been a problem .... and the girl would more than likely be peeling tobacco leaves on the farm, with everyone elses 12 year olds.

Now I'm guessing here, but I would bet that all the anti-redshirt posters have no idea about the living conditions of the poor in Thailand, or the poverty of the rural schools. Go and live on a Thai farm with no proper toilets, no running water and a mud road outside for a week and then post about how the redshirts should be punished for their crimes. Many of them probably think being shot is a merciful end to the misery they are facing.

Edited May 21, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[whybother]

The Abhisit government have made education free to the age of at least 15 ... maybe 18.

I paid about 4000 bht for the books and uniforms at the free government school this semester.

If I were only earning 4000bht a month, this would have been a problem .... and the girl would more than likely be peeling tobacco leaves on the farm, with everyone elses 12 year olds.

Yes. I understand that students need to buy new books each year. Second hand books aren't allowed. I've read it's something to do with the suppliers of the books paying the right people.

This needs to be corrected.