Thai Turmoil 'disastrous' For Tourism: Finance Minister

[JetsetBkk]

<snip>Taking the money away from the rich is the best punishment

Ah. So you're a red supporter after all.

[Netfan]

Well, if they are worried about tourism, they can always use these photos of Nathawut on holiday as an advertisement. oops- the photos are of his "JAIL CELL" - guess those human rights folks will be complaining he doesn't have internet access.

http://www.oknation.net/blog/StayFoolish/2010/05/21/entry-5

if these are for real, there are no words.....

Edited May 21, 2010 by Netfan

[JetsetBkk]

15 to 20 percent of EMPLOYMENT is very significant. Even if half of those people lose their jobs long term (and that seems probable) that is a very big deal.

Shows also what lousy pay they must be getting if 6% GDP is earned by 20% of the workforce.

[pacman32]

Korn said: "Thailand is committed to making our democracy work. We believe that building on giving equal rights to all our citizens is essential to sustainable economic development in the long term."

The lesson from the political turmoil, he said, "might be that open, competitive, and relatively equal access to resources and opportunities is more important than the strict Western model of democracy."

What did this Thai finance minister was saying and what did he mean by "strict Western model of democracy."? He should have added that Thailand under power-that-be is committed to making our "thai style" democracy work by disregarding the votes of the poor and under educated. His statement was laughable. How can the country be open if

it doesn't respect the voices and the votes of ALL people? How these poor and working class people have equal access and opportunities if their voices are always being shut down by these "intellectuals" in Bangkok?

maybe they should have thought of that before they take their 200 baht for votes.......talk about selling their souls. i have seen this many times happening in the provinces and assume as the post gets more important then the cost of the vote goes up accordingly. seems to me most poor rural folks dont care who has the power just who pays the most and to be honest i cant really blame them as all parties seem the same.

as for some posters saying this is not as bad as last years airport fiasco then all i can say is from my view, last year it delayed my trips by 2 days and i then arrived and had a wonderful few months. this time, well i had my hotel booked in yasothon for bun bang fai on 7th of may but im still sat here in boring UK and not really sure when to go back. in fact im considering bringing the other half here for a holiday even though i hate it in England lol.

thai baht, well thats another story all together. sept 2008 i was getting 62 baht per pound in Samui last time i was there in oct-jan was lucky to get 50 then it dropped to 43 now 45 ish. that means on my £8000 budget im 136,000 baht down on a trip 2 years ago almost £3000, enough for my girlfriend to live for one year in thailand. it nullifies that cheap cost of living in LOS because we have already paid premium in exchange. i believe this will affect tourism as much if not worse than any trouble but cant see many families travelling there now because of risk of further trouble. yes the mongers will always travel but as their 1000/2000 baht nights become £50 plus pounds then even they may seek fresh pastures across the borders and how many families does that particular section of tourism support?

if it keeps going at this rate most tourists will be priced out of their hols and just go elsewhere. thailand is beautiful and i love the place but there are many other paradises to be found.

[JetsetBkk]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

Hot and humid.... Some even say boring

Went there once. 'Nuff said.

[jucel]

Financial Times reported Thursday in a whole page devoted to Thailand's turmoil (despite all the violence shown on the world's TV screens) that Thailand's tiger economy is doing very well, that investors are reluctant to leave a good economic story and all the economic indicators on Thailand are looking impressive hence the Baht doing well. Lets hope things will return to normal and surely the Tourists will return in July/Aug.

No worries.

Thai King Tops List of World's Richest Royals With US$35B

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,408645,00.html

Loose change for him

Warren Buffett US$47B at world no 3

So, our majesty is world 4th richest.

I think you will find in reality the Queen of England is by far the wealthiest person in the world. She has unimaginable wealth. A LOT of things are not taken into consideration when compiling this data, for example the crown jewels etc etc. Plus she owns half of London!!

[jucel]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

maybe they manipulate the currency, like China does.

of course they manipulate the currency + there must of been a repatriation of cash to fund recent activities. One more thing is that the baht is not a major currency and it has caps on the amount that can be traded per day. Also I think after the 1997 crisis, legislation was put in place to stop big hedge funds crippling the baht!

[PokerFace]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

As far as the US$ goes it's not the Baht getting or staying strong, it's the value of the US$ going down the drain everywhere.

[Sabre]

Exactly. For healing to happen on all sides, facts are going to have to be faced. And a basic fact is the recent events are indeed the most severe mess in modern Thai history, entirely DWARFING the airport event.

It would be nice if people attempted to make reference to some sort of empirical evidence or fact instead of relying on their own opinion as the highest source of truth.

[deepskyfreak]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

maybe they manipulate the currency, like China does.

of course they manipulate the currency + there must of been a repatriation of cash to fund recent activities. One more thing is that the baht is not a major currency and it has caps on the amount that can be traded per day. Also I think after the 1997 crisis, legislation was put in place to stop big hedge funds crippling the baht!

Thailand also shouldn't have much of a deficit now. Exports still seem to be fairly unaffected but now little investment into equipment bought abroad. Maybe lots of money floing in from China in their attempt to further take over Thailand step by step... just as the Chinese did in Laos or Cambodia.

Edited May 21, 2010 by deepskyfreak

[longtom]

Exactly. For healing to happen on all sides, facts are going to have to be faced. And a basic fact is the recent events are indeed the most severe mess in modern Thai history, entirely DWARFING the airport event.

It would be nice if people attempted to make reference to some sort of empirical evidence or fact instead of relying on their own opinion as the highest source of truth.

How about the fact that the last high season was exceptionally good? Most tourists put the airport closure under chapter strike, that's a fact. Blood and brains and on the streets of Bangkok however might have a longer lasting effect. Maybe the world will forget again soon but only if we don't get a guerilla war in the coming months.

[witold]

I think you will find in reality the Queen of England is by far the wealthiest person in the world. She has unimaginable wealth. A LOT of things are not taken into consideration when compiling this data, for example the crown jewels etc etc. Plus she owns half of London!!

You can only count what you have control over in wealth calculations. Many things are labeled as belonging to the Queen *in name only*.

This article estimates that she has 17B pounds *in trust* for the nation. That means her actual wealth is less because of that 17B she can't sell or manage a good chunk of it.

Richest monarchs are mostly from bigger 3rd world countries where they still have their monarch power and can control more of their nation's assets as their own.

[snaggletooth]

The airport event was short. There was not major destruction, gun battles, burning buildings. I can't respect opinions of people who don't face basic facts.

The airport takeover cost billions. Who's not being honest with themselves here?

When you take over international airports then it affects other countries as well, not only causing irrevocable damage to the local economy in terms of reputation and trade but also confidence, as airports are seen as an untouchable area internationally, however in Thailand the government not only failed to act, the airport takeovers were rewarded with positions in the cabinet and other benefits.

Of course if the airport and Government house were not laid siege to by the PAD, the reds would not have taken over Rajaprasong as a result of that precedent.

Don't be mistaken, the PAD and the military having forced the country into its current predicament did irrevocable damage, long before the red-shirts were a force to be reckoned with.

Bangkok can rebuild its shopping malls, but the damage done to Thailand's reputation thanks to taking over an international airport will never be forgotten or repaired.

The point is the scenes of violence on the streets and anarchy with rioters burning down major landmarks leaves an indelible impression. The airport fiasco is long forgotten and the long term economic harm of this last demonstration will be felt for years to come. Watch how fast direct foreign investment in new factories dries up as a result. Tourism is a drop in the bucket compared to that. And when people resort to burning down hotels and the second largest mall in Asia, nobody will want to invest here.

The red shirts shot themselves in the foot because it's many of their people that are employed in the factories that come here as well as in the tourist sector.

I for one will advise all of my friends to stay clear of this country because the rabid reds will spawn metamorphose into a terrorist organization. They've shown what savages they are.

[jucel]

At least they will not have to spend too much on changing the recent advertising. Im sure they could cobble the old advert to read ablazing Thailand from amazing Thailand

[snaggletooth]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

As far as the US$ goes it's not the Baht getting or staying strong, it's the value of the US$ going down the drain everywhere.

Not in Europe and England. The dollar is strong against those currencies. Don't use the blanket term EVERYWHERE if you don't know about which you write.

[DP25]

If the total employment figure for the country is about 37mn, More than believable that there are 7 to 8mn people deriving an income connected to tourism in the country. Don't forget, the reason the service in this place seems so good in comparison with elsewhere is that they can hire maybe 15 waitresses to 1 in the UK for the same cost.

8 million people working in tourism is not believable at all. The number is ridiculous, and can only be gotten if you include every waitress and cook in every restaurant in the country, as well as every shop clerk. Hey, a foriegner walks in most of them once in a blue moon.

[midas]

Well i think countries like Thailand can expect fewer families from the UK now based on

something I read on a financial web page today about the higher taxes the new government

are going to impose

" More money is expected to be raised by changing the way flights are taxed, which could add more than £300 to the cost of a long-haul family holiday."

this with the weaker pound will just make it prohibitive for many families.

£300 extra just in in taxes isnt small change for the average UK worker.

[Thai at Heart]

If the total employment figure for the country is about 37mn, More than believable that there are 7 to 8mn people deriving an income connected to tourism in the country. Don't forget, the reason the service in this place seems so good in comparison with elsewhere is that they can hire maybe 15 waitresses to 1 in the UK for the same cost.

8 million people working in tourism is not believable at all. The number is ridiculous, and can only be gotten if you include every waitress and cook in every restaurant in the country, as well as every shop clerk. Hey, a foriegner walks in most of them once in a blue moon.

Employment

The contribution of the Travel & Tourism economy to employment is expected to rise from 4,000,000 jobs in 2010, 10.4% of total employment or 1 in every 9.6 jobs to 5,987,000 jobs, 14.1% of total employment or 1 in every 7.1 jobs by 2020.

http://www.wttc.org/eng/Tourism_Research/E...ports/Thailand/

It's all in the percentages of the calculation. I overestimated, although one would imagine that it is possible that these numbers miss all the black economy jobs. My mistake. However, looking at their numbers, they are only estimating 10%, I used Korn's original percentages and pulled a workforce number from somewhere else.

"Tourism in value terms accounts for six percent of our GDP," Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij told a Tokyo conference, adding that the sector also accounts for "as much as 15 to 20 percent of the total employment."

No need to have a go at me, I am not running the economy using what appear to be in your opinion shonky numbers.

So it just depends are 10% of the workforce in tourism, or in the opinion of Korn, 15 to 20%

Edited May 21, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[rogercw]

8 million out of a 65 million population is too high. The work force is probably closer to 30 million and 15 percent of that would be 4.5 million. Still pretty high but not 8 million.

[DP25]

I'm saying I think the numbers they are considering to be 'tourism related' must be including jobs that aren't really tourism based, but that have some tourists as customers. Like all the waiters at an MK restaurant in MBK, even if 90% of the customers are Thai. I don't think 4 million people are employed at beach resorts, Khao San Road, Suhkumvit, etc.

[Thai at Heart]

I'm saying I think the numbers they are considering to be 'tourism related' must be including jobs that aren't really tourism based, but that have some tourists as customers. Like all the waiters at an MK restaurant in MBK, even if 90% of the customers are Thai. I don't think 4 million people are employed at beach resorts, Khao San Road, Suhkumvit, etc.

There is a lot more than that devoted to running a tourism industry.

[jitenshaman]

I'm saying I think the numbers they are considering to be 'tourism related' must be including jobs that aren't really tourism based, but that have some tourists as customers. Like all the waiters at an MK restaurant in MBK, even if 90% of the customers are Thai. I don't think 4 million people are employed at beach resorts, Khao San Road, Suhkumvit, etc.

then again, probably 90% of the jobs in Phuket, Samui, and Pattaya are tourist related or dependent. Might be easier to figure out if there were some kind of numbers for the regular office sector jobs, businesses in Bangkok and elsewhere basically for Thais, plus all the rural farming etc work numbers, and then subtract from there...it's kind of like that figure that gets floated from time to time that 10% of the female population has served in the entertainment industry at one time or another. Hard to pinpoint, and a lot of gray areas.

[scotbeve]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

[Thai at Heart]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

You reckon they just went through years of managing the baht, just to throw their hands in the air and say "Ah, screw it, lets just float it again".

There is no economic pressure yet on the baht to devalue. Simple really.

[erniebanks]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

The baht is being held up by huge buys from Thai Elite.

BUT--this will not hold forever.

Another few fights in the streets and a few hudred more buildings gone, and the bahy will collapse.

80 or 100 easy if the fight goes on.

[Dah fahrang]

I am visiting family in the UK right now.

On previous visits I have always noticed (without really searching) travel agencies in the high streets had been brimming with promotions for Thailand.

Newspapers were full of ads for package deals - Bangkok + beach.

High street banks and travel agencies were all showing 'holiday money' exchange rates with the Thai baht amongst other currecies.

This year - right now:

No advertisements for Thailand in any travel agencies in my town.

Egypt/Red Sea seems to be the replacement tour magnet, (Sharm el Sheikh), plus Dubai, and for those who like their 'fix' of the far east, Malaysia (Langkawi),

with Bali making a tentative come-back into the charts after an absence of several years.

Not a single air fare or inclusive deal to Bangkok offered in the back pages of Mail on Sunday or other travel pages of the UK dailies.

One or two smallish ads appear for deals to Phuket.

No Sterling / Thai Baht exchange rates appear on the electronic rate boards in banks or travel agencies.

It's like Thailand has completely dropped off the face of the tourist map.

If travel agenices in other countries have also dropped Thailand as an unsaleable destination, dream TAT.

The situation is dire in the extreme.

[davejonesbkk]

What can the 'elites' gain from holding the baht up though? Surely it just makes exports more expensive and affects tourism?

[sokal]

Don't know where the Swiss get their news re Phuket but local reports say hotel occupancy is at lowest ever, down to 40%. Tesco-Lotus closed today because of concerns about possible terrorism. Walking through Central Festival Yesterday I have never seen it so empty since it opened years ago.

No reports about actual incidents, but the tourist count is down. Hotels and businesses are reported to be lower than after the tsunami.

But this is probably rock bottom. It might be up and away from this point on.

[sokal]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

The baht is being held up by huge buys from Thai Elite.

BUT--this will not hold forever.

Another few fights in the streets and a few hudred more buildings gone, and the bahy will collapse.

80 or 100 easy if the fight goes on.

Anyone who thinks the bht will collapse or devalue knows nothing about macro economics or how to read a balance sheet.

Why would a creditor nations currency (bht) collapse against debtor nations currencies like the USD and the pound ? It has never happened in history.

[Phuket Stan]

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

The baht is being held up by huge buys from Thai Elite.

BUT--this will not hold forever.

Another few fights in the streets and a few hudred more buildings gone, and the bahy will collapse.

80 or 100 easy if the fight goes on.

Anyone who thinks the bht will collapse or devalue knows nothing about macro economics or how to read a balance sheet.

Why would a creditor nations currency (bht) collapse against debtor nations currencies like the USD and the pound ? It has never happened in history.

U just have to read the second last page in The Economist to realise that the baht wont collapse....just work out the foriegn reserves....plus they did not have Brown or Bush running the econmy....Thai banks were not burnt in subprime or CDOs....they learnt their lesson in 1997....if u r waiting for the baht to devalue against the pound euro or dollar u r certainly in for the long haul...BTW with the oil problem in the Gulf of Mexico there will be a shortage of shrimp in USA....who is the biggest exporter of shrimp in the world.. Thailand is