Thai Turmoil 'disastrous' For Tourism: Finance Minister

[scotbeve]

What can the 'elites' gain from holding the baht up though? Surely it just makes exports more expensive and affects tourism?

Isolationism.... welcome to Burma Yai.

[DickFarang]

Don't know where the Swiss get their news re Phuket but local reports say hotel occupancy is at lowest ever, down to 40%. Tesco-Lotus closed today because of concerns about possible terrorism. Walking through Central Festival Yesterday I have never seen it so empty since it opened years ago.

No reports about actual incidents, but the tourist count is down. Hotels and businesses are reported to be lower than after the tsunami.

Even the Russians stay away from Pattaya.

Only retirees and expats here.

As to the tsunami, that makes sense as tsunamis do not happen very often.

On the other hand, the current problems have only become worse and are not going to stop.

[sokal]

U just have to read the second last page in The Economist to realise that the baht wont collapse....just work out the foriegn reserves....plus they did not have Brown or Bush running the econmy....Thai banks were not burnt in subprime or CDOs....they learnt their lesson in 1997....if u r waiting for the baht to devalue against the pound euro or dollar u r certainly in for the long haul...BTW with the oil problem in the Gulf of Mexico there will be a shortage of shrimp in USA....who is the biggest exporter of shrimp in the world.. Thailand is

yet how many people on this forum still just think that Thailand is a basket case economy and that the currency is being " held up by elites" ? Its just the opposite, some of the misguided elites have been trying to devalue the currency by buying western debt although they have been slowing down on this lately.

[Skywalker69]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

And the bath getting stronger and stronger

[Skywalker69]

I really think the government should allow all the effected businesses to sue these leaders and backers for all loses that they have and will suffer in future. Taking the money away from the rich is the best punishment

Agree, emty all their bankacconts!!

[Skywalker69]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

I hope you are right.

[Tanaka]

A strike at Heathrow affects a million tourists too. But once the strike is over, things get back to normal very quickly.

The PAD takeover of Thailand's international airports wasn't a strike. It was a forceful takeover and shutdown by organised paramilitary elements of the PAD and galvanised by thousands of PAD protesters including women and children.

However the biggest factor in tourism falling will be the strength of the Baht relative to other currencies.

For the first time ever OBERKOMMANDO RED said something that had a resemblance of making sense. In his last sentence. Let's hope he goes back to reading Das Volk now and stops posting red utter nonsense propaganda.

[Skywalker69]

What can the 'elites' gain from holding the baht up though? Surely it just makes exports more expensive and affects tourism?

They get more for their money when they go on vacation outside Thailand.

[Herm]

The Thai Bhat is not strong, Euro, $ and Sterling are week - however, some factors are always wrong with official figures in Thailand.

The 6% tourism income of GDP figure does only include the large hotels and venues which pay taxes. The whole "gray" market that does not is obviously not included such as most restaurants, bars, service industry, shops ... etc... they all either pay no taxes or fiddle them.

I would put the real figure at somewhere around 20+ %

Thai tourism has survived just about everything over the last 20 years, but this time its different. I do not think the government will be able to restore "trust" back into tourists this year. May be if the country remains calm, by next year one can hope for a decent season again. The expensive baht also makes a holiday in Thailand very costly which will have a negative effect on tourism as well as on exports in general. The only solution would be a devaluation of the Baht which I daubed the government will initiate.

Add to this the external problems not related to Thailand, like economic disasters like the Euro crises and the island Volcano which is going to create continuous problems for a long time to come and peoples fear to get stranded far away from home ...

To think that we will have an OK season this year would be more than optimistic ...

Edited May 22, 2010 by Herm

[Tanaka]

15 to 20 percent of EMPLOYMENT is very significant. Even if half of those people lose their jobs long term (and that seems probable) that is a very big deal.

There is no way that number can be accurate. They must be counting every single business that a tourist could possible go in to. Like every single restaurant, bar, store, and 7-11 in the country that a foreigner could walk in to.

No? Please share the facts supporting your claim. If the Minister of Finance is not giving the correct figures we appreciate if you can give the true ones.

[andyww]

One of the largest problems That tourism faces is that UK tourists make up a large proportion of arrivals, and the new UK coalition governent is planning to adopt the Lib-Dem "Green" policy of taxing air travel out of existence.

As an aside, the plans also cover air freight so hitting UK exporters, the very people who should be leading economic recovery in the UK.

[bangkokburning]

I had heard the tourism GDP% is about 7% GDP. But if the 15-20% is even close to correct I could easily surmise that every one of those Red's had a family member working directly in tourism.

Yet, It is so tiring listening to the Thai government cry about tourism. This nation long ago decided not to educate its population and to build a nation on the backs on flighty and often sleazy tourism.

They have abused their natural resources to no end

Resort cities are ugly and overbuilt

Owning holiday residence is basically impossible

Consistent visa are not forthcoming and if they are they are fraught with hassles

Mafia, drugs, thuggery and lack of police assistance or TAT assistance

Total uncare/disregard for an army of scammers from the airport, tuk-tuk drivers, gem shops...

THEN come the events of the last five years

*The airport drama cannot be seen as something separate from the latest events, they are all hugely intertwined especially in the eyes of a foreign (family) looking for a easy going holiday.

Finally - I would point out at how the government concerted effort to discourage and disallow early retirees from putting down any roots

Instead, moneyless Asians (mainland Chinese and Indians) are encouraged on cheap package trips to keep the government coffers full with airport, hotel and fuel taxes

I have been hassled so much over visas and I have never worked a day in Thailand. After this last childish blow out, I have scant sympathy for the entire nation. Thailand - UP TO YOU.

Edited May 22, 2010 by bangkokburning

[hippy]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

As far as the US$ goes it's not the Baht getting or staying strong, it's the value of the US$ going down the drain everywhere.

Not in Europe and England. The dollar is strong against those currencies. Don't use the blanket term EVERYWHERE if you don't know about which you write.

thailand controls value of baht as china does, they would rather lose tourists than face thats why they wont devalue it - pathetic

[Skywalker69]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

As far as the US$ goes it's not the Baht getting or staying strong, it's the value of the US$ going down the drain everywhere.

Not in Europe and England. The dollar is strong against those currencies. Don't use the blanket term EVERYWHERE if you don't know about which you write.

thailand controls value of baht as china does, they would rather lose tourists than face thats why they wont devalue it - pathetic

I think you´r right.

What other country would have their currency getting stronger, when close to a civil war!

[moetownblues]

Oh WOW and the yellow shirt government could not see what would happen. How blind and stupid were they. They were very smart dropped the value of the baht to make it more expensise for tourists to come. keep tourists out of Thailand.

Edited May 22, 2010 by moetownblues

[pacman32]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Absolutely right there! The Thai Baht is WAY too strong for a country like Thailand. It should be on par with that of the Phillipinnes! I predict a 50% devaluation of the Baht quite soon!

Let's hope so !!!

The baht is being held up by huge buys from Thai Elite.

BUT--this will not hold forever.

Another few fights in the streets and a few hudred more buildings gone, and the bahy will collapse.

80 or 100 easy if the fight goes on.

why dont they do the sensible thing and put all their bags of thai baht into Yen then devalue the baht 50% where it should be and then buy back baht and then they can use all them extra baht to help the needy lol as if. its a fact though that a high baht can only help the rich few as all the others can never leave thailand so why would they care.

[merlion]

Oh WOW and the yellow shirt government could not see what would happen. How blind and stupid were they. They were very smart dropped the value of the baht to make it more expensise for tourists to come. keep tourists out of Thailand.

I urge all to put off travelling to Thailand. Who knows how the political situation will churn out?!!! Stray bullets and flying molotov cocktails will be a common sight from now on. Save your lives now!!!

[selftaopath]

I did read in a Swiss Newspaper that there where not many People where changing away from Thailand and many Hotels in Phuket where fully booked.

That would be utter nonsense as most places in Phuket are currently empty.

However, the damage from the reds is easily a HUNDRED times more severe and long term than the airport incident.

Taking over and closing international airports causes far more damage to the economy than burning shopping malls and occupying downtown areas I'm afraid.

The reds might have kept tourists away from Bangkok but the PAD ensured nobody could come to Thailand at all.

It's a crying shame the PAD were not punished and obviously the red shirts saw that precedent.

It always feels like a challenge to find/see consequences doled out in Lack of Sanctions (LOS). That's a very big "problem." And it fuels corruption - BIG TIME.

[selftaopath]

In europe the closure of the airport last year could be seen has a sort of strike. But the last events are seen like a civil war. Do you think that tourist with childrens will come to Thailand this year or even next year. Thailand has lost her credibility and nobody now will fall for any falacious marketing campaign. I am in Europe for one month now and i can tell you that Thailand was making the headlines everyday , and now all the newspapers and magazines are issuing very negative articles about thailand and the thai society, even speaking of what is not possible to speak in the Kingdom. None of theses news are positive for Thailand. For this year forget about high season as well. Next year the 4 and 5 stars hotels and spa will have to offer 2 stars prices, the end of the dream. "Quality tourists" don't go to war zones or to countries with the army in the streets. It's even worse than if we had muslim terrorists attacks in BKK.

Thank you for your post. Wouldn't it b grand if something in Lack of Sanctions/Land of Scams (LOS) changed as a result of this? Do I think much will change???? Na.

But the sex tourist will continue coming along with others who might be on a "wanted" poster somewhere. They might "fit right in." Police are corrupt. Politicians are corrupt business owners are corrupt ... and the band played on. Only the poor and meek will be HAMMERED by these events. Shame. The Thai people deserve better.

[Ulysses G.]

The 6% tourism income of GDP figure does only include the large hotels and venues which pay taxes. The whole "gray" market that does not is obviously not included such as most restaurants, bars, service industry, shops ... etc... they all either pay no taxes or fiddle them.

I would put the real figure at somewhere around 20+ %

I agree. The posters who keep insisting that the tourist industry is only 6% of the GDP are not taking all the unreported income into consideration.

[selftaopath]

Exactly. For healing to happen on all sides, facts are going to have to be faced. And a basic fact is the recent events are indeed the most severe mess in modern Thai history, entirely DWARFING the airport event.

Oh how I agree with you Jingthing. When Image i.e. "face" is foremost and THE #!. priority how can a people/nation look at or face the facts. Saving "face" is not about reality, but about deception/denial/ lack of transparency/taking responsibility. There are few if any consequences for any mis-behavior (if any are ever acknowledged w/out blaming someone else).

Thanks for your posts,

Keoki

[Ulysses G.]

But the sex tourist will continue coming

Right now, sex tourists, expats and backpackers are the only thing keeping many busnesses afloat. Do not look a gift horse in the mouth!

[scotbeve]

Oh WOW and the yellow shirt government could not see what would happen. How blind and stupid were they. They were very smart dropped the value of the baht to make it more expensise for tourists to come. keep tourists out of Thailand.

I urge all to put off travelling to Thailand. Who knows how the political situation will churn out?!!! Stray bullets and flying molotov cocktails will be a common sight from now on. Save your lives now!!!

After 30 years in Thailand, my (Thai) wife and myself are seriously contemplating leaving. I suspect there are others feeling the same way.

[whybother]

I think you´r right.

What other country would have their currency getting stronger, when close to a civil war!

The baht has been very stable against the $US for the last 3 months at about 32.5, down from about 34 a year ago.

[whybother]

After 30 years in Thailand, my (Thai) wife and myself are seriously contemplating leaving. I suspect there are others feeling the same way.

That's understandable. The reds have shown, not only in the last week or month, but the last 2 years, how violent they are with the grenade attacks. This will possibly increase after such a defeat.

It won't matter what the government do to help the poor or if there are elections, since this isn't what the red leadership is after. The red leadership are only after power.

Edited May 23, 2010 by whybother

[JohnnyFeelIt]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

That the baht is so dependent on tourism is also a myth....

[Jimi007]

I think you´r right.

What other country would have their currency getting stronger, when close to a civil war!

The baht has been very stable against the $US for the last 3 months at about 32.5, down from about 34 a year ago.

Well, I got 33 Baht to the dollar on Feb, 23rd and 32.15 on April 28th. Five years ago I was getting over 42... The BOT governor is very good at holding the Baht high. I see all these developments being built around where I've lived for several years. My question is who is going to buy them? I've also seen a few condo projects stopped, abandoned and they were near completion. The bubble may have burst for some, but apparently not all...