30% Fall In Property Market ?

[westcoastnative]

I just read an article in the front page of the Wall Street Journal in the June 15th or 16th edition regarding the Real Estate market in Bangkok. They stated that prices are increasing way up from the crash of '97. They made it sound like there are a lot of investment money and cheap credit in Bangkok and Asia in general. They anticipated continued growth in that part of the world.

Edited June 18, 2005 by westcoastnative

[dr_Pat_Pong]

The 30 per cent drop is more beery pub talk from the profit prophets.

[scheggs]

The 30 per cent drop is more beery pub talk from the profit prophets.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as the baht stays low it is attractive to buy for foreigners.

if the prices drop more Farang will buy and automatically push the prices up again.

In the Main Sukhumvit area where i do business in Real estate with Farang I can not get enough good stock.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

The 30 per cent drop is more beery pub talk from the profit prophets.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as the baht stays low it is attractive to buy for foreigners.

if the prices drop more Farang will buy and automatically push the prices up again.

In the Main Sukhumvit area where i do business in Real estate with Farang I can not get enough good stock.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for that info'. Nice to hear from practical experience.

[westcoastnative]

The 30 per cent drop is more beery pub talk from the profit prophets.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as the baht stays low it is attractive to buy for foreigners.

if the prices drop more Farang will buy and automatically push the prices up again.

In the Main Sukhumvit area where i do business in Real estate with Farang I can not get enough good stock.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Scheggs,

How much are 2 bedroom condos in the Sukimvit area going for in a nice complex.

Edited June 20, 2005 by westcoastnative

[Beer-diow, khao-neow, mai-an!]

How much are 2 bedroom condos in the Sukimvit area going for in a nice complex.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

YEah, any idea on what something in Thonglor (The Heights, Noble Ora) might go for - on second hand marekt maybe?

[scheggs]

The 30 per cent drop is more beery pub talk from the profit prophets.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As long as the baht stays low it is attractive to buy for foreigners.

if the prices drop more Farang will buy and automatically push the prices up again.

In the Main Sukhumvit area where i do business in Real estate with Farang I can not get enough good stock.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Scheggs,

How much are 2 bedroom condos in the Sukimvit area going for in a nice complex.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry for delayed reply

I will quote you per sqm as the size can vary, between 58,000 per sqm 85,000 per sqm. and if you buy a new one you can even get a visa every year. if you want more info send me an email.

[Khun Jean]

and if you buy a new one you can even get a visa every year.

Like buying a condominium and a visa is connected. Yeah right.

Ah, a real estate agent that is also a visa agent and probably also a lawyer and maybe more sidejobs....

For me this sentence is a "red flag".

[Rags]

and if you buy a new one you can even get a visa every year.

Like buying a condominium and a visa is connected. Yeah right.

Ah, a real estate agent that is also a visa agent and probably also a lawyer and maybe more sidejobs....

For me this sentence is a "red flag".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Khun Jean - To be fair I think that Scheggs was referring to the old 3million baht investment visa concept, rather than offering to pull some strings .

I am not sure if it is still available, but if so then I believe that it allows a foreigner to count the purchase of a condo (Baht 3M+) as an investment in Thailand, and to qualify for a non-immigrant visa on that basis.

Rags

[dr_Pat_Pong]

and if you buy a new one you can even get a visa every year.

Like buying a condominium and a visa is connected. Yeah right.

Ah, a real estate agent that is also a visa agent and probably also a lawyer and maybe more sidejobs....

For me this sentence is a "red flag".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You really are a witless bore aren't you ? You know very little.

[thedude]

Don't believe everything you read regarding the market, reports usually quote a particular source who has a certain 'angle' to sell. the Post article in question here refered to 'market' data published (and sold) by AREA, a so-called non-partisan agency seeking to give a clean view of the market.

The problem with so-called non-partisan agencies is that they have to be ALARMIST in order to get public attention. who else is going to pay for their reports and keep them in business? i have noted AREA's half yearly reports and have in fact attended a couple of AREA-sponsored seminars on the market. i have a problem with AREA's definition of supply and Dr Sopon of AREA is well aware of my concerns.

For example, in June last year, AREA (ever keen to sensationalise) declared that there was a looming supply bubble forming in the market as evidenced by their latest market surveys. AREA's methodology is flawed for its purposes. They measure supply by counting the Total Number of Units Launched for Sale in Bangkok over a period of time. Actual supply in my books approximate more the data published and made available by the Bank of Thailand which measures Physical Units Completed from house numbering applications made by home owners and developers to the respective Land Offices (this can only be done when units are substantially complete).

Measuring supply by advertised sales launches the way AREA does is wrong because :

1. Only express developers' intent to put units on the market and does not translate to actual units realised.

2. Many developers are punting, i.e. they hope to sell off-plan, and if they don't they won't proceed with the development, or only partially.

3. Not all units launched will hit the market at the same time, some are actually supplied to the market in 2 to 3 year's time.

It is obvious that this method will tend to overstate the facts.

If anything, AREA's method expresses more the developers' sentiment regarding the demand of the market in 12 to 36 months, as reflected by developer sales launches, and not real supply. AREA then measures units sold among those that were launched and expresses the data as demand. Again, this will understate actual transactions as all it does is merely record sales of units launced in the same period but not of those that were launched say 7 months or even 1 year ago.

I have read market reports published by global investment houses which use AREA's data to build a case for underweighting the sector, the effects of which can be seen. The misinterpretation of data such as that released by AREA only serves to fuel the confusion and speculation in an opaque market like this. AREA should not allow erroneous interpretation of their data to persist without clarification.

[Khun Jean]

and if you buy a new one you can even get a visa every year.

Like buying a condominium and a visa is connected. Yeah right.

Ah, a real estate agent that is also a visa agent and probably also a lawyer and maybe more sidejobs....

For me this sentence is a "red flag".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You really are a witless bore aren't you ? You know very little.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure i am.

At least i know more words so i can reply with more than 1 sentence which seems your way of getting your post count up. Credits to Reggs for informing me about the investments link. That was a lot more helpful.

I guess you just have to be more "streetwise" to at least question the qualifications of someone who is offering a condominium and a "free" visa. There are many things that can go wrong with it.

I just think it is more sensible to be cautious especially in a country not your won. If someone sees my "red flag" warning it will make them more cautious and i think that is a good thing.

[george]

Bangkok Bank offering condo mortgages to foreigners

Full story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=37535

[phormio]

Maybe if (when) they impose a tax(yearly) on property/real estate in Thailand, as is done in the US(by local governments), this will all change. Got a feel this is a question of time, but there will be great political opposition to such taxes.

what do ya think?

[Heng]

I don't know about great political opposition... but I vote "no, thank you." The title transfer and business exception tax paid upon purchase is already plenty of revenue for the gov't (which certainly is in no shortage of funds to plunder).