Election Unlikely This Year: PM Abhisit

[way2muchcoffee]

I'm becoming very frustrated by the Abhisit government for several reasons:

1) They move too slowly. People need answers and they need them more quickly than the government has been able to provide them. The government needs to expedite their investigations.

2) There is little or no transparency. Strong accusations have been made. The government needs to be more transparent with their investigations. They do not need to reveal everything as the investigations are ongoing, but they do need to reveal something. Keeping everything too close to the vest causes people to suspect a conspiracy.

3) Independent investigations into the actions of the government and the military need to begin immediately. If they have nothing to hide then they have nothing to fear.

4) The SoE needs to be lifted as soon as possible. There may be reasons the government is keeping it in place, but those reasons haven't been forthcoming.

5) Financial blacklists need to end or be severely curtailed. This is in line with ending the SoE. The government cannot block accounts without a court order and strong evidence if the SoE is ended. Innocent people and companies may be suffering significant losses due to their accounts being frozen.

6) The FM needs to go and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to work better with the PMs office. Too often they seem to make pronouncements at odds with each other. This makes the government look substandard.

7) Details of the Reconciliation Plan need to be made clear to the public. Everyone is waiting and wondering how this government will address the root causes of financial inequity and disenfranchisement of a large swath of the population of Thailand.

8) People being detained by under the SoE need to either be charged or released. This heavy-handed approach was repugnant when the US did it and it is equally repugnant now.

9) Media freedoms need to be reinstated. The opposition media needs to be restored. Clear guidelines must be published about what are the legal limitations of free speech. It will then be up to all media to adhere to those guidelines or face censorship or closure.

10) Public meetings need to begin. These public awareness meetings need to bring together all aspects of society to work toward a better, stronger, less corrupt, and more egalitarian Thailand.

11) Police reform must begin. I have no idea how this is to happen, but there is no doubt the Royal Thai Police needs to change their operations and become police whose mission is 'to serve and protect'.

12) Elections need to be planned. While people understand that the specific date is difficult to determine due to the various unknowns in the problems Thailand is facing, a clear road map needs to be published. What are the preconditions necessary before elections can be held? This is a serious point. The government needs to address this and make the plan very public.

13) The PAD situation. Cases against the PAD must be expedited.

I have been an Abhisit supporter for several years. I am fully willing to drop this support if the government isn't seen to be doing positive works for the country. They need to begin immediately. It seems as if the government is stalling and obfuscating. This is not good.

Edited May 30, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[jdinasia]

This is not good news.

In my HO, the government should hold a "snap" election ASAP. If they wait until the scheduled time(2011) the "reds' will just argue that the current Gov't will influence, or otherwise corrupt the outcome. This move, in no way, addresses the "split" that currently exists in the Kingdom.

But I,m just a stupid farang, so what do I know.

How exactly would you suggest elections that are free and fair be run ASAP? Will you garauntee the safety of non-red candidates to campaign in Isaan?

Red leaders have spoken about "guerilla warfare" ... how would you deal with that whilst campaigning?

The red propoganda machine is still pumping out lies in Isaan and the North (as well as on here) ... how would you deal with that?

Elections are due in about 13 months ...The Constitution needs to be worked on (by all parties) and some things like resolving some of the issues surrounding the red leadership must be addressed. The budget it almost done. That leaves the constitution and beginning on the roadap for reconciliation.

THEN elections.

[mazeltov]

Abhisit said the number of 'terrorists' among red-shirt protesters was relatively small. Most red shirts were ordinary citizens.

<deleted>? Does the PM watch to much CNN and BBC, is he brainwashed by Dan Rivers?

what will the board mob of the ultra right-wing extremists say to such a comment?

[way2muchcoffee]

Abhisit said the number of 'terrorists' among red-shirt protesters was relatively small. Most red shirts were ordinary citizens.

<deleted>? Does the PM watch to much CNN and BBC, is he brainwashed by Dan Rivers?

what will the board mob of the ultra right-wing extremists say to such a comment?

I think they will probably agree for the most part. Nobody ever argued the point that the majority of the protesters were not armed with war weapons.

[animatic]

This is not good news.

In my HO, the government should hold a "snap" election ASAP. If they wait until the scheduled time(2011) the "reds' will just argue that the current Gov't will influence, or otherwise corrupt the outcome. This move, in no way, addresses the "split" that currently exists in the Kingdom.

But I,m just a stupid farang, so what do I know.

They will say this no matter what date is used.

[animatic]

<deleted>? Does the PM watch to much CNN and BBC, is he brainwashed by Dan Rivers?

what will the board mob of the ultra right-wing extremists say to such a comment?

troll comment.

Edited May 30, 2010 by animatic

[jdinasia]

Pardon me for typing inside your post --- my remarks are in Red.

I'm becoming very frustrated by the Abhisit government for several reasons:

1) They move too slowly. People need answers and they need them more quickly than the government has been able to provide them. The government needs to expedite their investigations.

Investigations take time. Investigations using more than one agency AND having observers from the opposition take even more time. Thoroughness is more important than speed.

2) There is little or no transparency. Strong accusations have been made. The government needs to be more transparent with their investigations. They do not need to reveal everything as the investigations are ongoing, but they do need to reveal something. Keeping everything too close to the vest causes people to suspect a conspiracy.

Investigations again are delicate. The foreign press (notably Al Jazeera) and diplomats have been let in on some and have reported it. Remember that there is a censure debate coming up --- where we will be subjected to all sorts of lies from the opposition and the government will HAVE to come clean with some then.

3) Independent investigations into the actions of the government and the military need to begin immediately. If they have nothing to hide then they have nothing to fear.

They have begun.

4) The SoE needs to be lifted as soon as possible. There may be reasons the government is keeping it in place, but those reasons haven't been forthcoming.

The Reds have talked openly about Guerilla warfare. Those that are truly capable of doing that need to be nabbed before lifting the SoE

5) Financial blacklists need to end or be severely curtailed. This is in line with ending the SoE. The government cannot block accounts without a court order and strong evidence if the SoE is ended. Innocent people and companies may be suffering significant losses due to their accounts being frozen.

I agree that if there is no clear trail of financial acts supporting illegal activities that these accounts need to be unfrozen! If there are trails showing financial support of illegal acts then the people need to be charged.

6) The FM needs to go and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to work better with the PMs office. Too often they seem to make pronouncements at odds with each other. This makes the government look substandard.

I WISH the FM would go .. but I doubt he will --- sadly his position seems to be safe.

7) Details of the Reconciliation Plan need to be made clear to the public. Everyone is waiting and wondering how this government will address the root causes of financial inequity and disenfranchisement of a large swath of the population of Thailand.

Details --- hmmmm. While the red propoganda machine is running will anyone that NEEDS to hear it actually hear it?

8) People being detained by under the SoE need to either be charged or released. This heavy-handed approach was repugnant when the US did it and it is equally repugnant now.

They get a court hearing every 7 days. Far more fair than other countries' treatment of .... I agree that they need to be charged or released soon but it takes time to put together so many cases at once.

9) Media freedoms need to be reinstated. The opposition media needs to be restored. Clear guidelines must be published about what are the legal limitations of free speech. It will then be up to all media to adhere to those guidelines or face censorship or closure.

I agree --- clear guidelines. Immediate closure and jail for the people that incite unrest instead of doing the job of reporting. There is room for propoganda --- after all even the US can tolerate FOX, but even FOX would be illegal in the UK.

10) Public meetings need to begin. These public awareness meetings need to bring together all aspects of society to work toward a better, stronger, less corrupt, and more egalitarian Thailand.

I agree but how do you have governent sponsored meetings in areas where government officials are being threatened?

11) Police reform must begin. I have no idea how this is to happen, but there is no doubt the Royal Thai Police needs to change their operations and become police whose mission is 'to serve and protect'.

I agree --- but "Good luck with that!" Thailand needs Serpico!

12) Elections need to be planned. While people understand that the specific date is difficult to determine due to the various unknowns in the problems Thailand is facing, a clear road map needs to be published. What are the preconditions necessary before elections can be held? This is a serious point. The government needs to address this and make the plan very public.

Elections Nov 2011

13) The PAD situation. Cases against the PAD must be expedited.

The PAD cases are in front of the courts --- you can't have an independent Judiciary if the governent can push the around

I have been an Abhisit supporter for several years. I am fully willing to drop this support if the government isn't seen to be doing positive works for the country. They need to begin immediately. It seems as if the government is stalling and obfuscating. This is not good.

I think the governent is moving with as much haste as possible. The issues are that the parliament opposition party is adding more muck to the process and it will only get worse!

[bkksteviejai]

The reds rejected the peace agreement. The elections should be held at the normal time.

Earlier they are....possibly more likley reds lose?. Probably more than just a few people around the country thinking they are just a bunch of animals after Bangkok fiasco (Thaksins boys unelectable?). Perhaps good time to drive home the advantage.

[way2muchcoffee]

Pardon me for typing inside your post --- my remarks are in Red.

I'm becoming very frustrated by the Abhisit government for several reasons:

1) They move too slowly. People need answers and they need them more quickly than the government has been able to provide them. The government needs to expedite their investigations.

Investigations take time. Investigations using more than one agency AND having observers from the opposition take even more time. Thoroughness is more important than speed.

2) There is little or no transparency. Strong accusations have been made. The government needs to be more transparent with their investigations. They do not need to reveal everything as the investigations are ongoing, but they do need to reveal something. Keeping everything too close to the vest causes people to suspect a conspiracy.

Investigations again are delicate. The foreign press (notably Al Jazeera) and diplomats have been let in on some and have reported it. Remember that there is a censure debate coming up --- where we will be subjected to all sorts of lies from the opposition and the government will HAVE to come clean with some then.

3) Independent investigations into the actions of the government and the military need to begin immediately. If they have nothing to hide then they have nothing to fear.

They have begun.

4) The SoE needs to be lifted as soon as possible. There may be reasons the government is keeping it in place, but those reasons haven't been forthcoming.

The Reds have talked openly about Guerilla warfare. Those that are truly capable of doing that need to be nabbed before lifting the SoE

5) Financial blacklists need to end or be severely curtailed. This is in line with ending the SoE. The government cannot block accounts without a court order and strong evidence if the SoE is ended. Innocent people and companies may be suffering significant losses due to their accounts being frozen.

I agree that if there is no clear trail of financial acts supporting illegal activities that these accounts need to be unfrozen! If there are trails showing financial support of illegal acts then the people need to be charged.

6) The FM needs to go and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to work better with the PMs office. Too often they seem to make pronouncements at odds with each other. This makes the government look substandard.

I WISH the FM would go .. but I doubt he will --- sadly his position seems to be safe.

7) Details of the Reconciliation Plan need to be made clear to the public. Everyone is waiting and wondering how this government will address the root causes of financial inequity and disenfranchisement of a large swath of the population of Thailand.

Details --- hmmmm. While the red propoganda machine is running will anyone that NEEDS to hear it actually hear it?

8) People being detained by under the SoE need to either be charged or released. This heavy-handed approach was repugnant when the US did it and it is equally repugnant now.

They get a court hearing every 7 days. Far more fair than other countries' treatment of .... I agree that they need to be charged or released soon but it takes time to put together so many cases at once.

9) Media freedoms need to be reinstated. The opposition media needs to be restored. Clear guidelines must be published about what are the legal limitations of free speech. It will then be up to all media to adhere to those guidelines or face censorship or closure.

I agree --- clear guidelines. Immediate closure and jail for the people that incite unrest instead of doing the job of reporting. There is room for propoganda --- after all even the US can tolerate FOX, but even FOX would be illegal in the UK.

10) Public meetings need to begin. These public awareness meetings need to bring together all aspects of society to work toward a better, stronger, less corrupt, and more egalitarian Thailand.

I agree but how do you have governent sponsored meetings in areas where government officials are being threatened?

11) Police reform must begin. I have no idea how this is to happen, but there is no doubt the Royal Thai Police needs to change their operations and become police whose mission is 'to serve and protect'.

I agree --- but "Good luck with that!" Thailand needs Serpico!

12) Elections need to be planned. While people understand that the specific date is difficult to determine due to the various unknowns in the problems Thailand is facing, a clear road map needs to be published. What are the preconditions necessary before elections can be held? This is a serious point. The government needs to address this and make the plan very public.

Elections Nov 2011

13) The PAD situation. Cases against the PAD must be expedited.

The PAD cases are in front of the courts --- you can't have an independent Judiciary if the governent can push the around

I have been an Abhisit supporter for several years. I am fully willing to drop this support if the government isn't seen to be doing positive works for the country. They need to begin immediately. It seems as if the government is stalling and obfuscating. This is not good.

I think the governent is moving with as much haste as possible. The issues are that the parliament opposition party is adding more muck to the process and it will only get worse!

Thanks JD. Your comments are valid. Perhaps I'm just an impatient bastard. I want to feel confident that correct measures are being taken to help ensure that Thailand comes out of this crisis and moves forward. I'm not yet convinced. I guess we'll just have to wait, watch, and make judgments as all the information comes out.

Edited May 30, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[jdinasia]

The reds rejected the peace agreement. The elections should be held at the normal time.

Earlier they are....possibly more likley reds lose?. Probably more than just a few people around the country thinking they are just a bunch of animals after Bangkok fiasco (Thaksins boys unelectable?). Perhaps good time to drive home the advantage.

Not safe for non-red parties to campaign in much of the country and far too close to violence that has been presented only one way (the red way) upcountry.

[Neurath]

I'm becoming very frustrated by the Abhisit government for several reasons:

1) They move too slowly. People need answers and they need them more quickly than the government has been able to provide them. The government needs to expedite their investigations.

2) There is little or no transparency. Strong accusations have been made. The government needs to be more transparent with their investigations. They do not need to reveal everything as the investigations are ongoing, but they do need to reveal something. Keeping everything too close to the vest causes people to suspect a conspiracy.

3) Independent investigations into the actions of the government and the military need to begin immediately. If they have nothing to hide then they have nothing to fear.

4) The SoE needs to be lifted as soon as possible. There may be reasons the government is keeping it in place, but those reasons haven't been forthcoming.

5) Financial blacklists need to end or be severely curtailed. This is in line with ending the SoE. The government cannot block accounts without a court order and strong evidence if the SoE is ended. Innocent people and companies may be suffering significant losses due to their accounts being frozen.

6) The FM needs to go and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs needs to work better with the PMs office. Too often they seem to make pronouncements at odds with each other. This makes the government look substandard.

7) Details of the Reconciliation Plan need to be made clear to the public. Everyone is waiting and wondering how this government will address the root causes of financial inequity and disenfranchisement of a large swath of the population of Thailand.

8) People being detained by under the SoE need to either be charged or released. This heavy-handed approach was repugnant when the US did it and it is equally repugnant now.

9) Media freedoms need to be reinstated. The opposition media needs to be restored. Clear guidelines must be published about what are the legal limitations of free speech. It will then be up to all media to adhere to those guidelines or face censorship or closure.

10) Public meetings need to begin. These public awareness meetings need to bring together all aspects of society to work toward a better, stronger, less corrupt, and more egalitarian Thailand.

11) Police reform must begin. I have no idea how this is to happen, but there is no doubt the Royal Thai Police needs to change their operations and become police whose mission is 'to serve and protect'.

12) Elections need to be planned. While people understand that the specific date is difficult to determine due to the various unknowns in the problems Thailand is facing, a clear road map needs to be published. What are the preconditions necessary before elections can be held? This is a serious point. The government needs to address this and make the plan very public.

13) The PAD situation. Cases against the PAD must be expedited.

I have been an Abhisit supporter for several years. I am fully willing to drop this support if the government isn't seen to be doing positive works for the country. They need to begin immediately. It seems as if the government is stalling and obfuscating. This is not good.

Excellent post. If that's the result of too much coffee, I'll have me another 10 cups.

[mazeltov]

This is not good news.

In my HO, the government should hold a "snap" election ASAP. If they wait until the scheduled time(2011) the "reds' will just argue that the current Gov't will influence, or otherwise corrupt the outcome. This move, in no way, addresses the "split" that currently exists in the Kingdom.

But I,m just a stupid farang, so what do I know.

How exactly would you suggest elections that are free and fair be run ASAP? Will you garauntee the safety of non-red candidates to campaign in Isaan?

Red leaders have spoken about "guerilla warfare" ... how would you deal with that whilst campaigning?

The red propoganda machine is still pumping out lies in Isaan and the North (as well as on here) ... how would you deal with that?

Elections are due in about 13 months ...The Constitution needs to be worked on (by all parties) and some things like resolving some of the issues surrounding the red leadership must be addressed. The budget it almost done. That leaves the constitution and beginning on the roadap for reconciliation.

THEN elections.

You forget that the Democrats will mostly likely dissolved after the 12. August.

There is a confidence of 90% that exactly that will happen, because the evidence in the 258 million donation case and the 29 million misused funds case us pretty clear. (Thai Rath article in google cache)

That comes from Maj-Gen Kittisak Ratprasert, he is very far from the suspicion to be a red shirt propaganda clown. He comes more from the inner circle of the 'power'.

There will be new by-elections, but party list seats like the one of Abhisit will not get refilled and without them the new-"democrats" will not be able to get a majority again to form a government.

and beginning next week we have the censure debate. Abhisits majority is very slim. That he now declares there will be no election this year is mostly aimed at his own MPs who are more or less pure yellow heads and never agreed with an earlier election right from the beginning.

but on the moderate site could be a few swing voters, will they be still loyal to an PM who is responsible for such bloody and deadly crackdown? It doesn't need much MP who changed their mind and want to keep a clean conscience. That can bring this Government down.

[asiawatcher]

Its pretty straight forward - Reds won - they got the early election, they got the PM to dissolve Parliament then the greed kicked in and the 'outside' influence. So they lost - they lost credibility, they lost any chance of saving face - and they destroyed a lot of property as was openly declared in mass rallies. Overall, they are losers now and have nothing left to barter with.

The Govt revoked the offers due to non compliance and the rabble reaped what they sowed - so now let the Govt get on with handling the affairs of the country. Let them govern, fulfill their term, instigate the social changes that the PM already had started which the Red leaders chose to ignore, and if they don't like it - too bad. An election in November would not be of any help to this country - to have all these assh*les on the road now campaigning until the law has taken affect, would decry the lawlessness that presently 'is' Thailand.

Let there be some judgements, let there be some reconcilliation through due process, and let sanity re-unite this country.

Edited May 30, 2010 by asiawatcher

[otherstuff1957]

The next elections will probably turn into a real nightmare for the government. I may be wrong, but here's my prediction:

1. Grenade attacks, threats against their families, arson at their homes and other forms of intimidation against non-PT candidates (especially Democrats) in the North and North-East.

2. Massive vote-buying on the part of PT to try to offset any loss of popularity they will suffer due to the Red riots in BKK and point 1.

3. Riots and attacks against the government and the EC when PT Candidates are red-carded or banned from politics due to point 2.

4. A massive behind the scenes 'bidding war' between the Democrats and the PT when neither of them win a clear majority and have to convince some of the minor parties to join them in a co-coalition and NOT join the other party.

I hope that none of these predictions come true, but, given the history of recent elections, I suspect that they will.

The government is probably looking for more time to implement their economic policies, amend the Constitution, clean up the Police and try to set up as 'clean' elections as possible.

[mazeltov]

Abhisit said the number of 'terrorists' among red-shirt protesters was relatively small. Most red shirts were ordinary citizens.

<deleted>? Does the PM watch to much CNN and BBC, is he brainwashed by Dan Rivers?

what will the board mob of the ultra right-wing extremists say to such a comment?

I think they will probably agree for the most part. Nobody ever argued the point that the majority of the protesters were not armed with war weapons.

I think that i have still the ugly sound in my ears of the mobs brouhaha that almost immediately followed when somebody at this board dared to call the red shirt not 'thugs' and 'insurgents' but ordinary citizen instead, who practise their civil right to protest and attend a rally.

wait and see what will happen when the so called 'June 24 peoples movement', all ordinary citizens, start their rallies all over the country exactly on June 24.

[chuang]

I think there is no excuse to stall elections beyond November. Abhisit looking like a flip flopper now. This is a divisive move.

So all along Abhisit has no intention of holding election in Nov....he lied to the Thai people and to the world.....he is a LIAR...

[lilkitty]

We should all head back into the bunkers for round 2 of the demonstrations, as soon as the rice season finishes.

[lilkitty]

This is not good news.

In my HO, the government should hold a "snap" election ASAP. If they wait until the scheduled time(2011) the "reds' will just argue that the current Gov't will influence, or otherwise corrupt the outcome. This move, in no way, addresses the "split" that currently exists in the Kingdom.

But I,m just a stupid farang, so what do I know.

How exactly would you suggest elections that are free and fair be run ASAP? Will you garauntee the safety of non-red candidates to campaign in Isaan?

Red leaders have spoken about "guerilla warfare" ... how would you deal with that whilst campaigning?

The red propoganda machine is still pumping out lies in Isaan and the North (as well as on here) ... how would you deal with that?

Elections are due in about 13 months ...The Constitution needs to be worked on (by all parties) and some things like resolving some of the issues surrounding the red leadership must be addressed. The budget it almost done. That leaves the constitution and beginning on the roadap for reconciliation.

THEN elections.

You forget that the Democrats will mostly likely dissolved after the 12. August.

There is a confidence of 90% that exactly that will happen, because the evidence in the 258 million donation case and the 29 million misused funds case us pretty clear. (Thai Rath article in google cache)

That comes from Maj-Gen Kittisak Ratprasert, he is very far from the suspicion to be a red shirt propaganda clown. He comes more from the inner circle of the 'power'.

There will be new by-elections, but party list seats like the one of Abhisit will not get refilled and without them the new-"democrats" will not be able to get a majority again to form a government.

and beginning next week we have the censure debate. Abhisits majority is very slim. That he now declares there will be no election this year is mostly aimed at his own MPs who are more or less pure yellow heads and never agreed with an earlier election right from the beginning.

but on the moderate site could be a few swing voters, will they be still loyal to an PM who is responsible for such bloody and deadly crackdown? It doesn't need much MP who changed their mind and want to keep a clean conscience. That can bring this Government down.

Interesting observation. Right now the momentum is on the Democrats side, no doubt. If they held elections now, they would most likely win an absolute majority. But what happens when the Democrats are dissolved? Let's face the truth, there is no chance they won't be dissolved, because otherwise the other side will cry double standards and massive street rallies will be back in no time. If they're dissolved, Puea Thai will do everything to brand them as what they've been saying they are all along and momentum will swing back to Puea Thai. Then come the new by-elections and guess what happens?

[Tony121]

They also need to looks at ways to stop vote buying, while this still exists it makes the whole democracy/elections a farce.

[mazeltov]

The next elections will probably turn into a real nightmare for the government. I may be wrong, but here's my prediction:

1. Grenade attacks, threats against their families, arson at their homes and other forms of intimidation against non-PT candidates (especially Democrats) in the North and North-East.

2. Massive vote-buying on the part of PT to try to offset any loss of popularity they will suffer due to the Red riots in BKK and point 1.

3. Riots and attacks against the government and the EC when PT Candidates are red-carded or banned from politics due to point 2.

4. A massive behind the scenes 'bidding war' between the Democrats and the PT when neither of them win a clear majority and have to convince some of the minor parties to join them in a co-coalition and NOT join the other party.

I hope that none of these predictions come true, but, given the history of recent elections, I suspect that they will.

The government is probably looking for more time to implement their economic policies, amend the Constitution, clean up the Police and try to set up as 'clean' elections as possible.

remember how was it in 2007, under Junta and the martial law?

Report of the International Election Observation Mission by The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) www.anfrel.org

Published March 2008

Campaign environment

The legislation governing campaigning is highly detailed and restrictive. For example, the

ECT stipulates that:

• the dimensions and numbers of the posters put up will be limited according to ECT

regulations14

• airtime on television and radio cannot be bought15

• candidates shall refrain from "slandering" their opponents

• the ECT must sanction election events organised by the media or NGOs

There raft of measures that are targeted specifically at vote buying that are dealt with in a

separate section of this report.

Through such legislation the ECT was, to some extent, able to engineer a more level "playing

field" for political parties. Preventing larger and wealthier from dominating advertising in the

media worked to the benefit of smaller parties excessively, though coverage was still focused

on the largest two parties. However, such restrictions also arguably constitute a breach of the

freedom of speech of candidates and parties. By regulating the minutiae of campaigns, the

ECT could also be overburdened by a deluge of complaints from rival parties over relatively

minor issues – if not in this election than possibly in future elections.

If a breach of campaign regulations is suspected by the ECT or police, they are empowered to

make a pre‐emptive intervention – such as by confiscating money suspected to be used in

vote buying16, or even arrest17. Again, while the desire to prevent election violations from

taking place is sound, there is also a risk that legitimate campaign activities may be unfairly

stopped if there is a presumption of guilt rather than innocence18.

As well as sustaining criticism for introducing such regulations so close to the election itself,

the ECT was faced with the additional challenge of having to give guidance on individual,

highly contentious issues that the law was not clear on. The People's Power Party, widely

perceived as a reincarnation of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai

party, faced difficulties in knowing to what extent they could refer to the banned party and

banned politicians. The party consulted the ECT on whether they could, for example, use

Thaksin's image on campaign posters. These issues were complicated yet further when the

ECT offered its judgments as "advice" rather than a regulation which had to be legally abided

to, leaving candidates and parties in something of a legal limbo.

Partly as a result of the stricter regulatory environment, campaigning was more muted than in

previous elections. The most common form of campaigning was vehicles set up with speakers

to advertise the party's or candidate's number that should be marked on the ballot. The use of

door‐to‐door campaigning was limited. Poor outreach by political parties was a particularly

acute problem in the three southernmost provinces, where campaigning was extremely

subdued. The ongoing violence created a climate of fear within which candidates were

reluctant to openly campaign e.g. in villages in Pattani (in districts such as Nong Chik, Khok

Po and Mae Lan) not a single political party had campaigned at all. Nationwide, nearly 30%

of the voters interviewed by ANFREL observers had not "received campaign materials or

seen campaign activities from political parties/candidates".

The ECT's attempts to provide fora at which all political parties could campaign on the same

platform, delivering speeches on a single stage, were not successful. At nearly every forum

attended by ANFREL observers, turnout was less very low or non‐existent. The most popular

political parties in the area were the least likely to take part in such events. While

disappointing, it is clear that the ECT's attempts to play a larger role in campaigning was not

the best use of its limited resources.

The largest political parties did produce policy manifestos and did refer to them on some

campaign materials and in national debates. However, reference to policies was less

prominent in more grassroots campaigns by candidates, where personality rather than policy

or ideology was stressed. That said, nearly two‐thirds of those voters interviewed by ANFREL

responded that they were "well informed about parties/candidates policies".

In light of the electoral success of Thai Rak Thai, almost all of the political party manifestos

were more 'populist' in nature. Academics criticised political parties for failing to adequately

calculate whether such policies were financially viable.

PPP leader Samak Sundaravej, now elected Prime Minister, ,at a campaign rally

To reach grassroots communities, political parties made extensive use of canvassers, some of

whom were local government officials such as village or district headmen – in contravention

of the laws prohibiting state officials from supporting parties or candidates19. Although voters

in some provinces (e.g. Uttaradit, Yala) believed government officials did not favour any

particular party, their neutrality of state officials, particularly village headmen has been

challenged by voters in many other cases (e.g. Chiang Mai, Pichit, Nakhon Phanom). In

Chiang Mai, one village headmen did not even attempt to disguise his support for the PPP to

ANFREL observers. While some canvassers were motivated by a passionate belief in a

particular party or candidate, others were driven more by the financial incentives that parties

offered, reflected by the fact that canvassers were often canvassing for more than one political

party.

Despite the heated competition between political parties, the elections were generally

peaceful. However, Human Rights Watch have documented the killings of a number of

canvassers during the course of campaigning – three from PPP, and one each from the

Democrats and Chart Thai. Candidates themselves have been threatened and assassination

attempts made (see annex 'Cases of Election‐Related Violence' for more details).

There is also evidence to suggest that insurgents in the three southernmost provinces were

preparing attacks, with 60‐70 sticks of dynamite found prior to the election. Few security

breaches took place in the south on election day itself – with heavy flooding possibly limiting

mobility of insurgents – though one convoy transporting ballot papers in Pattani20 was shot at

on election day.

Restrictions on campaigning through martial law and interference by the military is covered

in a later section of this report.

16 Section 107, Law on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives and Installation of Senators

17 Section 106, Law on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives and Installation of Senators

18 See IFES, Issues for consideration, The draft law on the election of members of the house of representatives and the

selection of senators, Thailand

------------

Cases of election related violence ⁴⁹

18 December: Three armed soldiers from ISOC were arrested by police while monitoring the

house of Sa‐nguan Pongmanee, PPP candidate. The incident took place in front of Sa‐nguan's

house in Muang district, Lamphun.

17 December: A truck belonged to Thawisak Pho‐Ngarm (37), canvasser of Aphinan Kambang

Pue Phan Din candidate in Prajuab Kirikhan, was torched. The incident took place near

Thawisak house in Mu 1 tambon Khao Noi, Pran Buri district, Prajuab Kirikhan. Thawisak

reported that he had been threatened before. After the incident, Thawisak has been relocated

to a safe house in Bang Saphan district (provided by Aphinan, exact location unknown). A

complaint was filed with local police.

15 December: Prasong Sintuchai, canvasser of PPP in Prae and village headman in Mu 8

tambon Hua Muang, Song district, was shot dead in his house.

14 December: Den Yongkit (57), Canvasser of PPP in Muang district, Krabi, reported an

assassination attempt. Gunmen opened fire into his house in Mu 11 tambon Krabi Noi,

Muang district. No one was injured.

9 December: Payong Ananthasuk (52), former TAO chairman in tambon Boyang, and also

canvasser of Chada Thaiseth and Nophadol Pholsen Chart Thai candidates in Uthai Thaini,

was shot dead. He was shot in his house (Mu 6 Ban Ngiew Pom, tambon Boyang, Sawang

Arom district) with a shotgun.

7 December: Somsak Morichat, Democrat candidate in Chiang Mai, reported an assassination

attempt. He was shot (which he narrowly escaped) with 11mm gun while he was visiting his

canvassers in that evening. He reported many phone threats telling him to withdraw from the

contest. Somsak represents indigenous constituency (Karen). Democrat coordination center in

Chiang Mai requested police protection for Somsak.

1 December: Manit Pijitbanjong (45), Democrat canvasser in Pak Payom distict, Pattalung, was

shot dead. He was killed with a shotgun while driving his pickup truck on a local road in Ban

Tro, tambon Tamnan, Muang district.

19 November: Mayusoh Satapo (54), canvasser of Dr Waemahadi Waedao Pue Phan Din

candidate in Narathiwat, was shot and seriously injured. Mayusoh was attacked with M16

and AK47 rifles while driving his pickup truck on a local road in Mu 1 tambon Lamphu,

Muang district, Narathiwat.

5 November: Binsoh Masae (48), canvasser of Narong Duding Democrat candidate, and

village headman in Mu 5 Ban Paju, tambon Patae, Yaha district, was shot dead with bodyguard. Binsoh was attacked with AK47 rifles while driving his pickup truck on a local

road in front of a mosque in Mu 7 Ban Kato, tambon Patae, Yaha district, Yala.

22 October: Dr Charnchai Silapauaychai Phrae (53), PPP canvasser and PAO chairman of

Prae, was shot dead while jogging in a sports stadium in Muang district.

5 October: Man Rodkeaw (66), PPP canvasser, and kamnan of tambon Ban Na, Wachirabarimi

district, was shot dead with his bodyguard. He was shot with M16 rifles while driving his

pickup truck on a local road in Mu 8 Ban Huay Hang, tambon Nong Lum, Wachirabarami

district, Pijit.

49 Compiled by Human Rights Watch

----------------

Military

The role of the military in this election was contentious. The broader context, of course, was

that the election took place under a military government whose leaders were those that

directed the September 2006 coup, or were appointed by them. The martial law that was

applied immediately after the coup was not wholly lifted by the time of the election,

remaining imposed in particular districts in 26 out of the country's 76 provinces. While key

figures in the government administration, particularly coup leader General Sonthi

Boonyaratklin, had made overt comments against Thaksin and the PPP, the clearest evidence

of their bias was the emergence in October 2007 of a strategic plan by the Council for National

Security (CNS) to hinder the PPP's campaigning.

General Sonthi Boonyaratklin

The plan, addressed to General Sonthi and approved by him when he was still army chief and

head of the CNS, is presented as an 'information dissemination" strategy to "expose the flaws

of populist policies", "point out the similarities between policies of disbanded Thai Rak Thai

Party and those of People Power Party", and "prevent the middle class from leaning toward

the opposition". More worryingly, the plan also aims to deter "grassroots people from

rallying in Bangkok", prevent "civil servants from supporting the opposition", and

"circumvent opposition activities". Though the plan's authenticity was initially denied by

coup makers, it was belatedly confirmed as genuine, and an ECT sub‐committee investigating

3 0

the case ruled that they had acted with bias. Criticism was also leveled at General Sonthi as he

chaired the government's panel set up to tackle vote buying, an obvious conflict of interest.

There is some debate as to whether this particular plan was implemented or not. The ECT

argued it was not, overruled the findings of its sub‐committee, and failed to even chastise the

coup makers for approving such a plan. However, the mere fact it even exists and was

approved is cause enough for criticism²⁴.

ANFREL did find evidence of military interference in the electoral process in particular areas.

A senior army officer in Chiang Rai confided to ANFREL observers that officers in the area

has been instructed to vote for Chart Thai party and candidates (PPP's main rival in the area)

during advance voting on 15th December. In the same province, between 50‐100 homes of

PPP supporters were searched by the police on the pretence of 'searching for weapons' – no

other homes from supporters of other parties were searched.

Army personnel voting in advance in Chiang Rai

The role of the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), in particular, must be

challenged, which PPP candidates claimed monitored their activities excessively compared to

those of other parties. Human Rights Watch documented a case where three armed soldiers

from ISOC were arrested by police while they were monitoring the house of Sa‐nguan

Pongmanee, a PPP candidate in Lamphun. In provinces in the north, north‐east, and south,

there was some resentment amongst voters of the military, either because of a perceived bias

against the PPP or failure of the military government to deliver economic growth or security.

While the most egregious aspects of martial law were not been overtly applied very often to

disperse rallies or detain party supporters, in some districts it undoubtedly created a climate

of fear where freedom of expression and assembly was curtailed.

PPP candidate Yongyuth Tiyapairat being stopped and questioned

by army officers on the way to a campaign rally

ANFREL observers did find that perceptions of the military as a legitimate election

stakeholder varied though. In some areas, their contribution to voter education and security

seemed valued e.g. voters in Sakhon Nakhon commented positively about an army radio

station based at Krit Sri Wara army which had disseminated information about the elections

and political parties manifestos, including that of the PPP.

Early in the election campaign, there was some controversy over the establishment of a

government anti‐vote buying committee chaired by General Sonthi, who had stepped down

from his position as head of the Council for National Security and had been made Deputy

Prime Minister. Given his position as a previous coup leader, Sonthi's position on this

committee represented a clear conflict of interest, not to mention the overlap of the

committee's work with the ECT's. However, while initial media reports indicated a possible

operational role for the committee, its work was limited to voter education and fears of

interference or overlap with the ECT were not borne out.

24 See also the statement by Human Rights Watch, "Thailand: Military Interference Undermines Upcoming Elections:

A Weak Election Commission Endorses Unfair Election Tactics", 20th December 2007

-------------

read the full report here:

THAI_MISSION_2007.zip

its a pdf inside the zip.

[jdinasia]

I think there is no excuse to stall elections beyond November. Abhisit looking like a flip flopper now. This is a divisive move.

So all along Abhisit has no intention of holding election in Nov....he lied to the Thai people and to the world.....he is a LIAR...

Hmmm someone is a liar ....

Abhisit said that elections were contingent on the reds participation in the roadmap. They spat on the roadmap.

In no way does that show Abhisit's intent to do other than keep his word. They failed to participate and lost the opportunity. They burned buildings all around BKK and in several other provinces but you think that their behavior should be ignored?

They got what they asked for, New elections, --- what did they do? They stayed in BKK and kept threatening. The offer was taken off the table.

The government moves troops in to incircle them and what happens? Their violent thugs came out and attacked. Their leaders surrender and what do they do? Commit the arson they had been threatening since BEFORE they came to BKK.

Time to file the formal charges against the leaders that called for violence, arson, and armed insurrection. Time to formally charge the people that fought the security forces. Time to release the ones that got caught up in the sweeps but were not engaged in violence.

[MAJIC]

14 November would have been a perfect day for a fresh election. However, with the culprits of the recent terror wave still at large and the swift no-confidence vote of the PT, and with the ever self-sacriliging mister T, reconciliation is just not possible on short notice!

The reds (read mr Thaksin) were offered an early election, but chose to destroy Bangkok.

Thaksin must be regretting not having taken the offer of early Elections on the 14th of November,hes spent an

enormous amount of his ill gotten gains and now there is no early result in sight.

A drastic error of judgment on his part,bet he's kicking himself from one end of Montenegro to the other.

[tharae]

I think the best thing Abhisit can do to get his reconcilliation road map on track is to stick to the offer of a November election. That would send a sincere and positive message to all the redshirts, who by his own admission are mostly ordinary people, not terrorists, not to mention the much larger population of the "non elites".

In doing this he would be undermining the influence of Thaksin and the core leadership group, effectively saying I offered you this early election and your leaders rejected it, the rejection lead to more deaths .... you were promised victory, you got defeat, I will keep my promise...

In his meeting with the foreign diplomats he concerntrated on rule of law issues, they were also looking for signs that moves towards reconcilliation were being made, they didn't see them.

Instead of the Premier asking them to take a positive message back to their governments, he would have come accross better if he had given them a positive message of reconciliation in action.

Of course the wrong doers have to be arrested and have their day in court, but as many others have said, " don't forget those yellow shirts at the airport"

On the contrary, the worst action the Abhisit Government could take would be to implement the actions that were offered as part of the reconcilliation roadmap. This would send the wrong messages to, not on the Thaksin supporters, but also the general public, by rewarding and reinforcing "poor behaviour". A fresh approach is required.

[jdinasia]

14 November would have been a perfect day for a fresh election. However, with the culprits of the recent terror wave still at large and the swift no-confidence vote of the PT, and with the ever self-sacriliging mister T, reconciliation is just not possible on short notice!

The reds (read mr Thaksin) were offered an early election, but chose to destroy Bangkok.

Thaksin must be regretting not having taken the offer of early Elections on the 14th of November,hes spent an

enormous amount of his ill gotten gains and now there is no early result in sight.

A drastic error of judgment on his part,bet he's kicking himself from one end of Montenegro to the other.

Thaksin couldn't accept elections after Oct 1st. His plans would be smashed when the new head of the military was not his man. He has a few more months to do ANYTHING he can to prevent Abhisit from being in charge when the next military boss is appointed.

Thaksin isn't entirely alone in this .. but he is leading this mess. Keeping him off-balance and discrediting him internationally is what has to happen. That means giving in to the reds just isn't possible.

[mazeltov]

We should all head back into the bunkers for round 2 of the demonstrations, as soon as the rice season finishes.

sooner. June 24, that is the day when the so called 'June 24 peoples movement' starts their moves. For Thailand.

[Robby nz]

The PM and the Dems have every right to see out their term in office, the offer of an early election was only to attempt to end the red shirts occupation of a part of the city and get them to go home, sure there were conditions which were not met by the reds so there is now no need to hold an early election.

To call the PM a lier for withdrawing the offer (it was never a promise) is silly, he made the offer in good faith and when it was rejected and impossible demands were made by the reds, like the PM and Dep PM must admit to murder, then the offer became redundant.

A free and fair early election is not really possible in the present conditions where PTP would not be able to campaign in the south and the Dems would not be able to campaign in the northeast. The past vote buying and intimidation are something else that needs to be addressed.

Whether the election process can be cleaned up before the due date when an election must be held is another thing but the PM and Govt must be given a chance to try.

Legislation to address some of the problems of this country has been held up because of the reds rally or whatever you want to call it, there has also been a vast amount of money wasted because of it, money which could have gone to things like health and education.

Give the present Govt and the PM a chance to show what they can do in the next year and so and hope we will all be pleasently surprised.

[mazeltov]

14 November would have been a perfect day for a fresh election. However, with the culprits of the recent terror wave still at large and the swift no-confidence vote of the PT, and with the ever self-sacriliging mister T, reconciliation is just not possible on short notice!

The reds (read mr Thaksin) were offered an early election, but chose to destroy Bangkok.

Thaksin must be regretting not having taken the offer of early Elections on the 14th of November,hes spent an

enormous amount of his ill gotten gains and now there is no early result in sight.

A drastic error of judgment on his part,bet he's kicking himself from one end of Montenegro to the other.

Thaksin couldn't accept elections after Oct 1st. His plans would be smashed when the new head of the military was not his man. He has a few more months to do ANYTHING he can to prevent Abhisit from being in charge when the next military boss is appointed.

Thaksin isn't entirely alone in this .. but he is leading this mess. Keeping him off-balance and discrediting him internationally is what has to happen. That means giving in to the reds just isn't possible.

with an election before the appointment date for the new military boss nobody else but the election winner would be then in charge and make this decision.

Basically you are saying that Thaksin or his proxy puppet theatre party (or whatever you wanna call them) would win an election and after an election there will be no way anymore for the Democrats and Abhisit to make such appointment.

that means actually it is Abhisit who clings to power and must to hold the fort at any cost, probably on behalf of the forces who want their man in charge of the army.

Ergo the opposite is true. it is Abhisit who cannot afford elections before the Oct 1st.

[ozzieman05]

I think there is no excuse to stall elections beyond November. Abhisit looking like a flip flopper now. This is a divisive move.

The flip floppers were the people on stage in red t-shirts who kept adding new demands when their conditions were met. Bad behaviour should be punished, not rewarded.

I know this is slightly off topic.....but i was in the company of the g/f sister last night, who lives and works in samut prakan(she is thai), this topic came up for various reasons, but one thing she did say was that Seh Daeng was shot by a farrang sniper paid for by the goverment to silence Seh Daeng.....very seriously she confirmed that this was common knowledge (rumour?) amongst thais in bangkok and she is even a P.A.D suporter...anyone else heard that?

Common rumor.

And of course blame it on a farang,

then no one can think thais... yada yada yada.

Are you saying Farang snipers are better than a Thai sniper

Thai wife says no way

Thais are always better

ha ha

Love her little black heart

[rubl]

with an election before the appointment date for the new military boss nobody else but the election winner would be then in charge and make this decision.

Basically you are saying that Thaksin or his proxy puppet theatre party (or whatever you wanna call them) would win an election and after an election there will be no way anymore for the Democrats and Abhisit to make such appointment.

that means actually it is Abhisit who clings to power and must to hold the fort at any cost, probably on behalf of the forces who want their man in charge of the army.

Ergo the opposite is true. it is Abhisit who cannot afford elections before the Oct 1st.

I think the country cannot afford an election!

-The current constitution is seen by many as in need of modifications. PTP wants the 1997 version back (and sometimes the 2007 modified and then maybe not, or so, seems they can't make up their mind).

- Unclear if today candidates could safely travel everywhere to explain their program. Red-shirt are notorious for 'hunting' opponents down.

- Who can stand for elections? What about those disbarred already or to come?

- How do we ensure valid elections? How about observers? What about the Elec. Com.?

- etc., etc.

[ozzieman05]

This is not good news.

In my HO, the government should hold a "snap" election ASAP. If they wait until the scheduled time(2011) the "reds' will just argue that the current Gov't will influence, or otherwise corrupt the outcome. This move, in no way, addresses the "split" that currently exists in the Kingdom.

But I,m just a stupid farang, so what do I know.

Guess your right

with all the problems that have been caused by Red shirts in the last few weeks, the PM magic wand need a little more time to settle things down

You did want a fair election didn't you ?

or do you want a vote now while Thaskin still has money to spend