Thai Stocks For Mid To Long Term Investors

[ExpatJ]

hi chuck

hopes it goes well for you

Thank you again Humbug and Ray...

Humbug which broker do you use and how much you pay for a round trip Buy & Sell ?

I have another question for you...please..

I do not see here at Kim Eng Platform ( Portal ) a Stop LOSS or a Stop LIMIT as its called sometimes...???

Do you have such feature on your order ticket ??

I don't use it much but it's good to have sometimes when you are away from Computer...

Thanks again

Chuck

Hi Chuck- did kim eng have any technical analysis software/programme? Thanks for letting me know they re in central world- i didnt realise, i ll stop off by their offices on way back from work monday.

[ray23]

Chuck it's eight months and I did it with lots of help. If your approach is as a trader then Thaistocks is not for you. As Abrvak pointed out I haven't decided what I really am yet. A profit with Thaistocks in a few years while taking dividends is the approach.

Asiaplus in Udon doesn't offer what you saw in Bangkok. What they offer in Bangkok may be a very different thing. I don't know I'm happy with my life in Udon so Bangkok is not on the Agenda.

There are lots of guys to thank on the thread, they have shared knowledge with nothing in return expected.

Edited November 7, 2010 by ray23

[ray23]

Thursday the perfect storm?

How important is charting and stop losses?

I had one stock that could have really harmed me, but since I do this for a daily exercise I saw it coming and only got nicked a little. Now here is where life starts getting interesting it's exactly the same company as before,. What changed the World changed yesterday was almost the perfect storm. There fore when it finds bottom I will buy back in for less and will suffer no losses.

Everyone has to do it their own way. But' someone who really believes in stop losses. Every book that I have read mention's it and says to use it. I don't think Buffet and Graham are wrong so I use them.

Ireland debt crisis

Investigation in trading irregularities under way with the SET

Clamping down on Property loans

G-20 from all reports not having a great meeting

Dollar seemed to get a little boost, that is funny to me that it's still considered a safe haven.

My intent is to watch closely, A friend has mentioned we may be looking at the storm continuing on till Thanks giving is over. There a lots of things going right now that you can't see in the market. They are easy to shelve away and forget, but their out there and seem to be boiling to a head.

When I believe I have found bottom I will be going right back where I was before

When storm blows over best guess we will see big gains in he SET again. Remember the predictions were that the SET would be over 1000 next year not now.

Anyway I'm still at a profit.

I have the time to watch things this closely and interests me to learn. Not everyone is not in the same boat.

SET 1018

Profit 88,388

[humbug]

hi chuck

hopes it goes well for you

Thank you again Humbug and Ray...

Humbug which broker do you use and how much you pay for a round trip Buy & Sell ?

I have another question for you...please..

I do not see here at Kim Eng Platform ( Portal ) a Stop LOSS or a Stop LIMIT as its called sometimes...???

Do you have such feature on your order ticket ??

I don't use it much but it's good to have sometimes when you are away from Computer...

Thanks again

Chuck

hi chuck, as your example on 100k baht its works out at 150 baht for comm and about 10 baht for vat, i just tried to work out for the 100k value, thats on making orders yourself, as for allowing the marketing officer to make the trade i know its more expensive but i dont know the figures

the platforms at kimeng would be pretty similar to that of bualuang the broker i use , i think that all brokers intergrate their platforms with set trade, so on the portal it has options for streaming pro, streaming plus etc

for stop loss, just to be safe using it, if thats the requirement at a certain moment i would tend to have a marketing officer put the stop loss in place, just i havnt seen stop loss on the older platforms, maybe they have on the newer platforms like streaming pro and streaming plus, but i find the newer platforms just a split second slower in the execution and on thursday for me that slowness cost me a couple of executions, and stop loss lines is something that my broker keeps on hammering down my throat every now and again, as per i bought ps13ca at 1.29 baht thursday and it finished thursday 1.13 and today hit a low of 1.03 and finished at 1.25, monday it looks good for a follow through , thats where stop loss lines could have spared me from a loss of a trading day

Edited November 12, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

So far I haven't found anyone internet brokers that you can sit a stop loss with. Maybe with the upgrade that the SET has been talking about maybe it will be come a side benefit some day.

I would be considered wrong on Thai Stocks. But my view is this, if a stock is falling 20%, but is in fact a good company. Why should I leave my money a risk. When I can try to buy back somewhere near the bottom. If it goes up I still recover the money, if it continues down I won't loose anymore money.

The other thing I'm having hard to understand why is charting bad, for a value investor?

Does value investing require you to just have blind faith?

I don't think I can do that.

[ExpatJ]

Thursday the perfect storm?

How important is charting and stop losses?

I had one stock that could have really harmed me, but since I do this for a daily exercise I saw it coming and only got nicked a little. Now here is where life starts getting interesting it's exactly the same company as before,. What changed the World changed yesterday was almost the perfect storm. There fore when it finds bottom I will buy back in for less and will suffer no losses.

Everyone has to do it their own way. But' someone who really believes in stop losses. Every book that I have read mention's it and says to use it. I don't think Buffet and Graham are wrong so I use them.

Ireland debt crisis

Investigation in trading irregularities under way with the SET

Clamping down on Property loans

G-20 from all reports not having a great meeting

Dollar seemed to get a little boost, that is funny to me that it's still considered a safe haven.

My intent is to watch closely, A friend has mentioned we may be looking at the storm continuing on till Thanks giving is over. There a lots of things going right now that you can't see in the market. They are easy to shelve away and forget, but their out there and seem to be boiling to a head.

When I believe I have found bottom I will be going right back where I was before

When storm blows over best guess we will see big gains in he SET again. Remember the predictions were that the SET would be over 1000 next year not now.

Anyway I'm still at a profit.

I have the time to watch things this closely and interests me to learn. Not everyone is not in the same boat.

SET 1018

Profit 88,388

Have you sold all your stocks now because of the drop and maybe further drop to come? Im debating whether to begin selling on monday.

[ExpatJ]

Roller coaster ride last few weeks for those of us who had bought telcom stocks (AIS, TRUE, DTAC) in anticipation of 3G- they dropped horribly after the 3G was canceled but both AIS and DTAC have since increased nicely and paid special dividends and finally, after i had almost given up hope, TRUE increased 20% in one day!!! wow!, any one know what caused this?

[ray23]

No I didn't sell out all my stocks I kept the one's that remained steady. Picked up a few more today on bids. actually made money today.

True no idea but, it had one heck of a volume today. The last I heard about them they were trying to buy a smaller company Hutchison I believe.

Today was the last day for filing 3rd quarter reports may have had something to do with that.

Big C won the bid for carrefour

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/11/15/business/Big-C-wins-bid-for-Carrefour-business-in-Thailand-30142270.html

Edited November 15, 2010 by ray23

[ray23]

SET may hit 900's today, per kelive there is a big sell off of foreign money. Apparently foreign traders will set capitol inflow measures as they did before. So everyone is headed for the hills.

I know Thailand complains about what it does to the bah I'm not happy about that either since I'm paid in dollars. But they have big plan for that money. In reality I think they want more not less. A local newspaper addressed it today saying hey had no plans to stop the inflow till next year. That's two months away.

More then likely they will come out with a much stronger message then that I saw some great buys and expanded my holding while things are cheap. Some I;m not headed fro the hills I'm going shopping

[ExpatJ]

I sold 30% of my stocks in the last week taking a loss...but buying this morning (KBANK, CPALL and TTW- all of which have low RSIs today) hoping that the bullish sentiment from yesterday in Thailand and in the US over night continues...if they do increase i may even take the profits at the end of day or this week as the market is v volatile right now.

[ray23]

Things seemed rather slow today awaiting China's announcement I would assume. That made the banks have to increase their reserves by 50 basis points.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-19/china-tells-banks-to-set-aside-larger-reserves-to-drain-cash-from-economy.html

I have no idea if that will have an effect here or not. I believe markets concern was over the increase in interest rates.

We still have one thing left that might really effect the market if this was the end of China's moves.

That is the ruling on the Democratic Party by the Courts. I think that one would really upset the apple cart if we see a change in Government at this stage. I believe the ruling is due the 29th.

surprisingly I actually made money through the ups and downs. I'm working on my portfolio for 2011. More the likely I will see some down time while things adjust.

Expat are you seeing a pattern in TRUE?

[humbug]

everyday i always check the settrade broker reports, and pst everyday has technicals in english so i dont know if it ties in with some of your guys technicals, i thought i post the link as someone mentioned true

http://portal.settra.../te111910_e.pdf

they are quite a few others everyday like finsyrus and cgs, i really wouldnt know how good or close there are in the everydau scheme of things, maybe some of the more technical guys will show these reports are balony, which is fine by me, i just posted the link as it shows a uptrend for true for the next 8 days, i dont know why i look at these things, maybe its just a routine that everyday i look at maybe 20 reports thai and english and check all daily set press reports

i did notice that today it was as if everyone was in wait and see mode and quite a few small caps leaders came into play again

at the close i bought ivl01ca and tta13ca, the way the market is moving i might be down by 20% on monday or up by 20%

Edited November 19, 2010 by humbug

[ray23]

everyday i always check the settrade broker reports, and pst everyday has technicals in english so i dont know if it ties in with some of your guys technicals, i thought i post the link as someone mentioned true

http://portal.settra.../te111910_e.pdf

they are quite a few others everyday like finsyrus and cgs, i really wouldnt know how good or close there are in the everydau scheme of things, maybe some of the more technical guys will show these reports are balony, which is fine by me, i just posted the link as it shows a uptrend for true for the next 8 days, i dont know why i look at these things, maybe its just a routine that everyday i look at maybe 20 reports thai and english and check all daily set press reports

i did notice that today it was as if everyone was in wait and see mode and quite a few small caps leaders came into play again

at the close i bought ivl01ca and tta13ca, the way the market is moving i might be down by 20% on monday or up by 20%

Actually that fits in nicely with ASP Liberty, thanks I book marked it. Up or down been like that most of the week

Edited November 19, 2010 by ray23

[humbug]

http://portal.settrade.com/brokerpage/IPO/StaticPage/Capture/ResearchSetMai.html

its from this page which is from the thai version and is updated daily from about 9 am normally asp and thanachart are the first broker reports, alot of the reports are mostly in thai but a few are in english

[SantiSuk]

Does anyone have any concerns about a bubble being created in the market?

Here is Aberdeen New Thai Investment Trust's manager's report for October

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Market review

In October, the SET Index closed flat and took a breather after four straight months of solid

gains. Sentiment turned cautious as potential measures to control capital inflows were mooted,

along with the economic impact of floods in the South.

Economic momentum was steady in September. Consumer confidence improved, as exports

remained healthy, rising 21% year-on-year to reach a record US$18 billion while inflation

was benign. As expected, the Bank of Thailand raised its full-year GDP forecast to 7.3-8%

and maintained the benchmark interest rate at 1.75%. The central bank also imposed a 15%

withholding tax on foreign purchases of local bonds to temper the strong baht, which has

appreciated sharply in recent months.

Outlook

Despite the government’s announcement of the bond withholding tax, investors appear

unperturbed. It is not yet clear how the tax will be implemented. Meanwhile, ratings agency

Moody’s raised its assessment of the country’s economic and political outlook from negative

to stable. This comes just as floods have spread to 51 provinces, leaving 165 dead and millions

disrupted. Rice crops will be affected and spending may fall in the short term. But the general

thrust of the recovery remains on course. With the SET now past the 1,000-point level, the

likelihood of profit-taking as the year-end approaches has grown. Still, we feel there is value in the market

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would call this market a 'hold' at present

[ray23]

I agree, as long as the current Government stays in place until the normal election process can take place.

You might have noticed that even the PAD and UTD ae finding some common ground, on the border issue My guess is the preperation's for the elections are well under way. UTD will take Issan nothing has changed in that.

So let hope the apple carts doesn't get tipped over.

[ExpatJ]

Reading the financial press it seems that there is a growing consensus that the Ireland bailout will spread to Portugal and Spain. Spain would need at least a 500 billion Euro bail out if it came to that which would likely break up the Euro system. The korean unrest has also upset the markets.

am really considering selling out and taking a loss to prevent even greater expected losses if any of the above issues get worse- anyone else thinking or have already sold out their stocks?

(Update- i was expcting a horrible day today but in fact i ended up with all but one of my stocks increasing in price~ i was not expecting that given everything thats going on- weird. )

Edited November 24, 2010 by ExpatJ

[ray23]

YA you should have gotten a few baht on true today. Wish I could figure out it's cycle. Seems to always have a big move off the bottom. I bought 100 shares today to track it more accurately.

I've been buying on this latest downturn. If things go wrong for the Democrats Monday that will be a mistake.

Right now I'm getting into construction companies that have been winning bids on infrastructure projects. That is probably six months or more a for a return.

SMT has looked attractive over the past few days as well.

In listening to the news today the U.S. and South Korea have joint military exercises scheduled for next week. Lets hope no one get's stupid.

Democratic party gets disolved Monday I'm out wait and regroup when the dust settles.

[ray23]

50 years ago if you were an investor you would have to find a good business newspaper read it and you were done for the day. But, today you cna turn on your computer and you have access to more information then a newspape could have printed in a week

Is it a blessing or a problem.

Today definetly a problem around 11.45 the set dropped like a rock. Every stock that I track did the same thing within 30 mins. We actually went into the 900's within mins. So I started poking around trying to find out why.

What I found was about that time the first news release of the two Korea's saber rattling. Is that what caused it one would believe so. But the other markets in the region didn't react so quickly nor did they fall in the same manner. But. I think that was it.

It is now trying to recover with 29 mins. to go I don't think so

There was 30 Min time frame there that is was discount day throughout the market. Would I have reacted to that I don't think so, By the time I found out what was going on, it was lunch break. On no more then I had at that point I don't think I would have done anything.

Doesn't take much to keep me entertained does it.

[ray23]

Interesting the amendment 109 passed it's first reading that was the hot issue. Second one will be in February, Had it not passed I don't think we would be at 987 today. But, it did and we are. Both the PAD and UTD oppose this measure. PAD has promised to be back on the streets in December. The fear is that we will see another long session with them a we did a few years back.

I have went to cash 216K, I still have 100K in only on two companies.. Things were serious these last few days, enough so that I discussed it with every source I have Heck i even called my broker. Each source came up with a different reason. But, they all agreed that the balance of the year is not going to be good an it may last longer then that.

So me I will keep my profits and wait it out. With all the studying and practice I have put in I have gotten pretty good at finding the bottom or darn close. The goal now is to buy back at lower prices I had good stocks. That happens I will erase any losses I may have incurred. so far it's worked well.

You know I was one those few that actually won on slot machines why because when I hit I walked away. You stay and you just pump it back in. Didn't mean I didn't come an play another day, with the same stake I was willing to lose.

I'm not done with this either, thus far I have pulled out 350 K, still got 100K in play an still in the black. Doesn't mean much unless you know,what I put in. The answer to that is 275 K over eight months. So I'm not crying the blues by any means. I left with money in my pocket. actually a lot more then I ever thought I would.

I would say if your willing to put in the effort and learn avoid being greedy, you can make money in this market.

I have lost and won almost daily and in the end I have a profit not a loss. So here is hoping I can see the bottom of the buyers market next year. Cause I know what to buy when the price is right.

By the way Abvrak I have came to conclusion I'm a trader, not an investor

[ray23]

I don't see that this article is taking into account the protests planned by the Yellow shirts and red shirts on the 11th of December. Does cover next week pretty well. Kelive foreigner traders net sellers. Hopefully it will all be history for 2011.

Anyone have method they can use to project the 1st Quarter of 2011. I do believe it will be a buyers market question is when?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/11/27/business/SET-faces-week-of-instability-30143273.html

[mcbride]

Hi Ray.

I see by one of your previous posts that now you consider yourself a trader rather than a value investor...congrats on your decision. I would like to do both, as I am a value investor and a member of Thai Stocks, the same as you. I enjoy Paul's advice, but I am retired with time on my hands and would like to do a bit more with stocks. What information/websites or advice do I need to get started? I have followed the same path as you (reading the same investment books, joining TS,etc.) and would like to expand my knowledge of investing in stocks in Thailand.

I know that Thaivisa will not allow members to post their e-mail addresses so, how can I contact you?

Thanks

Lynn

[ray23]

Hi Ray.

I see by one of your previous posts that now you consider yourself a trader rather than a value investor...congrats on your decision. I would like to do both, as I am a value investor and a member of Thai Stocks, the same as you. I enjoy Paul's advice, but I am retired with time on my hands and would like to do a bit more with stocks. What information/websites or advice do I need to get started? I have followed the same path as you (reading the same investment books, joining TS,etc.) and would like to expand my knowledge of investing in stocks in Thailand.

I know that Thaivisa will not allow members to post their e-mail addresses so, how can I contact you?

Thanks

Lynn

I PM'd you my e-mail a few of us guys can talk to each other and share ideas

There are still some stocks I hold just for dividends.

Edited November 30, 2010 by ray23

[ExpatJ]

Hi Ray.

I see by one of your previous posts that now you consider yourself a trader rather than a value investor...congrats on your decision. I would like to do both, as I am a value investor and a member of Thai Stocks, the same as you. I enjoy Paul's advice, but I am retired with time on my hands and would like to do a bit more with stocks. What information/websites or advice do I need to get started? I have followed the same path as you (reading the same investment books, joining TS,etc.) and would like to expand my knowledge of investing in stocks in Thailand.

I know that Thaivisa will not allow members to post their e-mail addresses so, how can I contact you?

Thanks

Lynn

Are you based in Bangkok? I started investing in thai stocks in January this year- was hoping to meet a few like minded people here- pity that Ray is in the country side!

Edited November 30, 2010 by ExpatJ

[ray23]

Hi Ray.

I see by one of your previous posts that now you consider yourself a trader rather than a value investor...congrats on your decision. I would like to do both, as I am a value investor and a member of Thai Stocks, the same as you. I enjoy Paul's advice, but I am retired with time on my hands and would like to do a bit more with stocks. What information/websites or advice do I need to get started? I have followed the same path as you (reading the same investment books, joining TS,etc.) and would like to expand my knowledge of investing in stocks in Thailand.

I know that Thaivisa will not allow members to post their e-mail addresses so, how can I contact you?

Thanks

Lynn

Are you based in Bangkok? I started investing in thai stocks in January this year- was hoping to meet a few like minded people here- pity that Ray is in the country side!

No it's wonderful Ray is in the Country side, though this wonderful thing the internet. I'm in contact with other traders in Bangkok just about daily.

Interesting I thought the Democrats case was finished a did many others I suppose. If I understood correctly there is a second case that the judges will hear now. Only took them a year or so to find out the lat case wasn't filed on time. Who knows how long the next one will take. Long enough them to finish their term I would think. Probably longer then the protesters will accept.

That is the part that has me nervous more then anything else.

[ray23]

We are not out the woods just yet a second ruling on the Democrats may come mid month. At the moment the protests don;t look like they will be violent. But, Thailand is like Texas weather don't like it just wait a minute it will change.

Expat, Lynn lives in Bangkok PM him.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/12/02/politics/Second-court-ruling-likely-mid-month-30143629.html

[Tolley]

If you wanted to invest in the Thai stock market as a value investor using methods like Warren Buffet or Ben Graham is all the reporting data readily available? I need to be able to get things like:

Starting Equity Per Share (Book Value per Share)

Forecast Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Forecast Dividends Per Share (DPS)

Calculated Forecast Equity Per Share

Forecast Earnings Per Share

Shares Outstanding

Forecast Net Profit

Net Profit

EOY Equity

[ray23]

Tolley have you went into the ET site, Rights & Privlages will give you dividend information.

Click on the financials and you will get most of the information from the last quarter reported and a past history.

Forecast of the future I haven't seen.

Hope that helps a bit

[ray23]

Well on the Happy side of life I have now received 15,600 in dividends, that a net figure. After VAT.

Got my 375K from Asia Plus and starting over with Kem Eng. I think that is enough to work with so I will be putting the 20K in savings now. I need to figure out a better book keeping system with all the buy backs I was doing with profits it even was confusing to me. So lesson learned and make things better going forth.

Where It's stand right now I have pulled 540,600 baht out of Asia Plus, so no matter what else been a darn good savings plan for eight months.

I look for smaller growth next year.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Years

[ray23]

Will continue to see foreign capitol in flows this year?