PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem

[RickBradford]

Personally, I think any 5th grader with a basic understanding of science could defeat any of these skeptics in any debate.

Well, you're probably more qualified than me to gauge the mentality of 5th graders, but if your assertion was correct, then Warmists would be queuing up to 'defeat' skeptics in debates, whereas in reality, Warmists run for the hills whenever a debate is proposed, aware that their absurd theories cannot stand up under even cursory examination. Al Gore, for example, has ducked dozens of debates over the years.

As MIT professor Richard Lindzen pointed out, we shouldn't be referred to as skeptics any more:

“Skepticism implies doubts about a plausible proposition,” he said. “Current global warming alarmism hardly represents a plausible proposition.”

[cdnvic]

I deleted some arguments and cut&paste nonsense. Keep the discussion on a local level. Nobody's mind is going to be changed on global warming here, but if given a chance saner heads may bring light on how local and water management has impacted this. No more debating global warming. Certainly no more name calling.

[Tejas]

Songkran would be a good place to start. Hardly a good way of encouraging people to respect and protect water when the national festival throws millions of good litres of drinkable water down the drain.

It is no more logical than covering a whole country in the desert with snow just to have a white Xmas.

Thanks............it looks like we might just be allowed to discuss the topic.

Given that SongKran only takes place over a limited time period, it probably only has a small impact on Thailand's water supply.

It might, however, have a temporary negative impact in certain cities that have a serious water supply problem.

If Thais waster water like that every day...........well.........no doubt that would be a HUGE problem.

Americans most likely waste more water each day (all things being equal.....controlling for different population sizes) washing our cars.

But you made another point.............Songkran might have a symbolic effect that is not good for the country (encouraging people to waste water).

IMHO, that is not the case. The symbolism of Songkran is "purity" and "fun" and "party time" and "wash away the bad stuff."

I am not sure if it is really teaching Thais to be wasteful of water.

Does Halloween in the USA teach kids to love candy and eat huge amounts of it?

Maybe it does..........not sure.

[RickBradford]

Thai scientists note that droughts here coincide with occurrences of the El Niño weather phenomenon (more formally known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO), which is characterized by warmer sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific.

"The areas most affected by drought primarily occurred in the western and southern parts of the [isaan] region, with the worst drought years in 1981, 1986, 1993, 1997, and 2001. These are correlated with the El Niño events which occurred in 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-92 and 1993-1994, and 1997-1998." (Thavorntam & Mongkolsawat)

The last big drought in Thailand coincided with the 2005 El Niño event.

The latest El Niño, which has been keeping temperatures high around the world, is waning faster than expected. As it fades, Thailand should get the rain it needs, probably within a month or so.

But it also means a very bad Atlantic hurricane season, a possible repeat of the Katrina/Rita events of 2005 to affect the United States.

[Thai at Heart]

Songkran would be a good place to start. Hardly a good way of encouraging people to respect and protect water when the national festival throws millions of good litres of drinkable water down the drain.

It is no more logical than covering a whole country in the desert with snow just to have a white Xmas.

Thanks............it looks like we might just be allowed to discuss the topic.

Given that SongKran only takes place over a limited time period, it probably only has a small impact on Thailand's water supply.

It might, however, have a temporary negative impact in certain cities that have a serious water supply problem.

If Thais waster water like that every day...........well.........no doubt that would be a HUGE problem.

Americans most likely waste more water each day (all things being equal.....controlling for different population sizes) washing our cars.

But you made another point.............Songkran might have a symbolic effect that is not good for the country (encouraging people to waste water).

IMHO, that is not the case. The symbolism of Songkran is "purity" and "fun" and "party time" and "wash away the bad stuff."

I am not sure if it is really teaching Thais to be wasteful of water.

Does Halloween in the USA teach kids to love candy and eat huge amounts of it?

Maybe it does..........not sure.

I am not sure where the "purity" of Songkran still remains. It is a very hard thing to find in between the teenagers gyrating on the back of pick ups in between swilling down another beer. Yes it's fun, but this festival has nothing to do with the essence of what Songkran is about.

I don't know if it has a significant effect on the total water supply of Thailand, I am simply supposing that trying to educate a population to treasure a precious resource isn't a particularly easy proposition when it can be used in such a profligate manner.

The only other parallel performance of such apparent profligacy I can think of is the tomato festival in Italy, but I don't suppose the local Italian farmers would proffer their entire crop to be squished in the drain. Just simple calculation on approximately 45mn people throwing 2 or 300l (one small ice bucket is close to one litre) of water for 5 days shows that aside from boosting the water bills that most people have for a month, that if the country is in time of drought, (which for example Isaan was at the time of Songkran) it isn't particularly logical to condone chucking bucketloads of perfectly useable water down the drain.

40 to 50 years ago, I am told that Songkran had a soul, and as much as I enjoy the fun these days, I also enjoy a couple of quieter days away with the extended family. In those days Thailand probably had 40 mn people and the population centres were half as big and water wasn't pumped into even probably 20% the country's houses. I don't see the sense in allowing all the people free reign to open up their taps and then two months later worry about a drought.

I don't think it rained more 40 or 50 years ago, so yes the loss is a significant amount of increased wasteful consumption. Are we to wait for Thailand to have 100mn people living largely in the cities before they stop people opening their taps and sapping the country dry?

Let's see if Abhisit is a statesman and next march he implores the people to throw just one day's less water away next year.

[dumball]

Well , after all these pages of next to no progress on fixing what ails the countries lack of water , what has the PM come up with considering he has such grave concerns about the problem ???? Bowing , scraping and burning josh sticks will achieve zilch nor produce anything of essence , anybody heard even a whisper of any sort of constructive plan to alleviate this dilemma ?????????

[Thai at Heart]

Well , after all these pages of next to no progress on fixing what ails the countries lack of water , what has the PM come up with considering he has such grave concerns about the problem ???? Bowing , scraping and burning josh sticks will achieve zilch nor produce anything of essence , anybody heard even a whisper of any sort of constructive plan to alleviate this dilemma ?????????

Good point. The only thing we know,is that apparently,he is "gravely concerned".

I wouldn't want to see him get "seriously" concerned. He might actually do something.

[Jimi007]

Environmental concerns seem to have been on the low end of Thailand's priority list. How many years have I read about water management programs in Thailand? Yet, they haven't implemented them or very few. Instead of replanting native trees, they plant rubber, palm oil, eucalyptus trees. Build resorts and deforest more land. While I agree there are natural cycles of global warming and cooling, Man has done a lot of damage. I see it all over this island where I live, that was once a very beautiful place, that's turned to crap... Many people I know are moving, I'm looking around for a new area too.

Edited June 7, 2010 by Jimi007

[enginerevision]

This problem is done to death every year accompanied by lots of "Yak , Yak , Yakity Yak Yak " but little positive action takes place , a system of water diversion channels need to be put into the sytem with varying height and grade systems , locks and pumpimg stations as in european canal systems . Resevoirs are too reliant on physical rainfall , water needs to be moved from the 'Too much ' areas to the 'Too little ' areas , instead , the aquafine areas are being bled to death as in some parts of India , look at the huge problem that already exists there .

Oh , I forgot , TiT , don't fix it 'til it's completely broke . Just keep on with the brainstorming , any 'Brains ' available out there ???

Well yes, we Dutch know all about water management, but Thailand would never hire Dutch, it's not cheap and like you say TiT.

Bangkok is sinking away to.. could take another 20 years though.

[enginerevision]

Thailand's rivers are also melting rivers ( originating in the Himalaya ) like we have in Holland ( originating in schwitzerland ).

A Dam is very wrong, and will bleed the rivers main function dry. Instead you need to use a system of locks and small dams, to keep the main functioning off the river in place, but being able to control the water levels.

[Tejas]

The Mekong is, indeed, in serious trouble................virtually all of the major rivers in Asia are in serious trouble. And the reason is obvious to responsible scientists. There was a thread on TV about the Mekong and dams (think Lao Po could have something to say about it). Proper construction and design is no doubt part of the solution.

I want to add something about Thais and water conservation. All of the houses where I live have either tin or tile roofs. All of the families capture rainwater that falls on the roofs...........that water is directed into clay pots (some huge). That water is then used for many purposes.......often to water plants during the dry season. That is positive.

In addition, where I live farmers have dug and are digging deep water ponds..........fairly small ponds that fill up during the rainy season. These ponds are not connected to any riverine system, so they are totally dependent on rainwater. The ponds are used for crops (e.g., sugar cane, corn, mansaparang/cassava, rice). Again, this is positive.

BUT, the stagnant ponds breed mosquitoes and that is a negative. It is easy to predict that if this solution is increased in number, mosquito born diseases will increase in Thailand.....and I am virtually certain this is about to happen.

I see a lot of farmers draining the local rivers for crop production (sugarcane and corn and cassava and in some cases rice). This year the rivers almost dried up completely. The situation has become dangerous..........one small step away from disaster.

So, one the one hand, Thais are doing some positive things in terms of water management. On the other hand, they are doing some negative things.

The negative things seem directly related to crop production and the need for income.

So, perhaps one solution to the water problem in Thailand is to grow less crops.

It might be prudent to radically reduce exports of certain crops.

To do that, you have to introduce alternatives to farming..........different types of jobs (people need incomes to survive).

I still believe the ultimate solution is local/regional sustainability........and that means creating balance between resources and population levels..........it also means doing something about our fossil fuel energy problem.

All things being equal, fewer people means less stress on the water system. But that is not always so evident. The main reason is exports. If Thailand ups its exports of food crops, it will increase the water problem. Still, this scenario involves people.............the exports are going to people outside of Thailand, so the population problem remains.

[That may not be clear, but imagine only a handful of people living in Thailand............they control a handful of companies that grow and export food products...........all of the land is used for exports...........the water system continues to be in grave danger even without an overpopulation problem. In this case, the overpopulation problem is external (the consumers outside of Thailand), not internal (the producers inside of Thailand)]

[dumball]

It has been said before , that individuals working to improve their lot as far as water conservation is concerned , is admirable but has many down-sides , the whole crop growing population working TOGETHER in a planned effort , would be a huge step forward in containing a huge misuse of the water that is available at any given time of the year . The only problem I can see with that probability , is that the rich would have to give up their money grabbing ways to enable the poor to benefit , but the poor also need to put in some effort instead of merely looking for handouts that seldom help , other than to placate their stomachs for a short time , they need to be shown how to spend money wisely to improve the results of their labour ,as apposed to material benefits such as a new TV or a truck , those extras will become affordable at a later date , but then again , many want them NOW .

[Tejas]

It has been said before , that individuals working to improve their lot as far as water conservation is concerned , is admirable but has many down-sides , the whole crop growing population working TOGETHER in a planned effort , would be a huge step forward in containing a huge misuse of the water that is available at any given time of the year . The only problem I can see with that probability , is that the rich would have to give up their money grabbing ways to enable the poor to benefit , but the poor also need to put in some effort instead of merely looking for handouts that seldom help , other than to placate their stomachs for a short time , they need to be shown how to spend money wisely to improve the results of their labour ,as apposed to material benefits such as a new TV or a truck , those extras will become affordable at a later date , but then again , many want them NOW .

It should be pointed out that droughts and other severe climate events are increasing worldwide.

This is happening at a time when population levels are soaring, putting upward demand on crop production and water use.

You can see the negative results all over. There are also positive results.

Some countries have started shifting to drought tolerant species of crops.

Others are engaged in drip irrigation.

There are likely numerous ways to reduce water use devoted to agricultural production........Thailand should consider them.

And, as stated, I think Thailand needs to shift its economy away from agriculture to something else.

The worst thing Thailand could do is to think this is all a short term problem (e.g., caused by some unusual weather related event like El Nino that will soon go away).

This challenge is not going away any time soon, at least not in the long run............probably not in our lifetimes.

To make it go away too many things have to happen related to population and energy, among other things.

[RickBradford]

The worst thing Thailand could do is to think this is all a short term problem (e.g., caused by some unusual weather related event like El Nino that will soon go away).

El Nino is not an 'unusual weather related event'.

First. it is a cyclic event. occurring every few years.

Second, it is not 'weather-related' in the sense that weather causes it. Rather, it is the other way round; El Nino drives weather patterns.

Third, measurements from many places agree that, as far as this cycle goes, El Nino is fading quite quickly, and hence good rainfall will return to Thailand sooner rather than later.

Edited June 8, 2010 by RickBradford

[Tejas]

The worst thing Thailand could do is to think this is all a short term problem (e.g., caused by some unusual weather related event like El Nino that will soon go away).

El Nino is not an 'unusual weather related event'.

First. it is a cyclic event. occurring every few years.

Second, it is not 'weather-related' in the sense that weather causes it. Rather, it is the other way round; El Nino drives weather patterns.

Third, measurements from many places agree that, as far as this cycle goes, El Nino is fading quite quickly, and hence good rainfall will return to Thailand sooner rather than later.

El Nino is "unusual" in that it does not happen each year.

El Nino is cyclic (we agree). But its intensity and frequency appears to be changing. Why? The MOD said "don't talk about it."

El Nino is weather related (we disagree)............weather (climate change) does impact it (e.g., water temperature impacts it and the heat content of the oceans is increasing dramatically). El Nino also impacts weather (we agree).

El Nino is fading rapidly (we agree). But the important point is that it will come back. And its frequency and intensity appears to be changing. Why? The MOD said "don't talk about it."

Another important point is that it is only one component of the drought problem.

The point I was trying to make is simple: It would be a grave mistake for the Thai govt. to think that the drought problem is a temporary problem caused by El Nino alone.

Hopefully, other posters who are interested in solutions will follow what I posted earlier.

[dumball]

The Thai government has been thinking drought problems are a temporary thing for the past 12 years at least , they have done little in a constructive manner to alleviate this ( Now ) drastic situation , it is useless to dawdle in such inane ( T0 them ) matters such as population reduction , reduction in agriculture etc because they are not interested in any way shape or form . We are Thai . We know everything . Were they not this way inclined , they would have brought in outside experts with vast amounts of expertise and practical experience in water problems and crop growing methods , no interest , no do , NO CHANGE , period .

[Tejas]

The Thai government has been thinking drought problems are a temporary thing for the past 12 years at least , they have done little in a constructive manner to alleviate this ( Now ) drastic situation , it is useless to dawdle in such inane ( T0 them ) matters such as population reduction , reduction in agriculture etc because they are not interested in any way shape or form . We are Thai . We know everything . Were they not this way inclined , they would have brought in outside experts with vast amounts of expertise and practical experience in water problems and crop growing methods , no interest , no do , NO CHANGE , period .

I tend to agree, but the PM has just made a firm statement........we can only hope some positive action will follow.

Thailand is a developing country............if it wanted to, it could reach developed status rapidly.

It could also avoid the problems the developed world went through to get to that status if it would just embrace the positive models out there.

I am seeing a lot more deep ponds being dug out near where I live..........farmers are responding without the govt. telling them to do so.

Also, in Pattaya, the city govt. is very concerned about the problem...........at least they are talking about it.

I want to be positive.............but I think you are likely correct: no change, or probably not enough change.

[RickBradford]

The government doesn't seem overly concerned about this drought lasting very long:

Paijit said the dengue fever outbreak would peak during the rainy season from June to August.

Thailand doesn't have a water problem -- it enjoys the 16th highest absolute rainfall out of 200+ countries worldwide. It most probably has a water management problem, especially in the areas which need it most, in the north and north-east.

[dumball]

'RickBradford' date='2010-06-08 20:35' timestamp='1276004102' post='3674273']

The government doesn't seem overly concerned about this drought lasting very ]Paijit said the dengue fever outbreak would peak during the rainy season from June to August

Thailand doesn't have a water problem -- it enjoys the 16th highest absolute rainfall out of 200+ countries worldwide. It most probably has a water management problem, especially in the areas which need it most, in the north and north-east.

[/quote)

I think hairs are being split here , rain in the city , no matter how much , is of little use to a farmer gazing at sun cracked earth in his fields at planting time , so he has a definite water problem on his hands .

[Tejas]

Of course Thailand does have a water problem and an associated rainfall problem.

The rainfall problem relates to seasonal weather: rainy season (less of a problem); dry season (major problem).

It also relates to location........some areas have traditionally been "wetter" than others. So, even during the rainy season, they get less rain.

It also relates to the number of people in relationship to the amount of rainfall...........something that varies greatly across Thailand.

it also relates to the intensity of dry season agricultural activity (again, varies greatly across Thailand).

The govt. recognizes the rainfall problem in the dry season and is "seeding clouds" to stimulate rainfall in severe dry areas (been doing that for some time now).

The govt. also recognizes that Thailand's limited capacity to capture rainwater during the wet season and store it for dry season purposes is a major problem.

Better water management, especially increasing storage capacity, is one part of the solution.

But demand for water is increasing.......way beyond existing storage capacity.

And drought events are become more severe. [There is no reason to assume drought events will not increase in intensity and frequency in the near future.]

What we are seeing is a climate change event..........the start of it.

I rarely cut and paste, but this article from 2005 is interesting............these types of stories go back a long way.

Thailand was "warned" and should have taken aggressive action years ago.

Rainmaking, King of Thailand attacks the sky

11 Apr 2005 Thailand: For the past month, planes from many airfields around Thailand have daily been flying out for a mission of great importance to Thailand, the war on drought, the worst in the Thai Kingdom since more than seven years.

[dumball]

No more comment , THINK , circle , dog , tail , can apply to many current problems !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[Rucharee]

Chaiyo.

Khao Yai road project & tree falling to go ahead.

[BlackJack]

Last night it rained long and hard in the Chonburi area.

[Tejas]

Chaiyo.

Khao Yai road project & tree falling to go ahead.

Is this the Thai approach to conservation?

Whatever, no more comments from me.

Might as well let the Trolls have it...........their comments are good for a laugh.

[BlackJack]

it is written that Thailand will be classed as a developed country by 2050 and so conservation of natural resources maybe big on the agenda by then.

In the next 40 years it is possible that the World may face several more natural disasters and this could change the way countries approach these problems.

For the north of Thailand the possibilities of farms sinking a bore are possibly good starts. There is another thread on this and so people should check out what others have been actually doing.

But then again if there is a major natural disaster ie. an eruption of a super volcano such as Yellowstone National Parks - then all bets are off and we will enter another ice age.

If they found water on Mars then surely they can find it in the northern areas of Thailand - so start sinking bores.

[dumball]

Sinking bores is a VERY short fill-in , no rain , no aquaplane replenishment , land subsides , check out the problems that has caused in parts of India , that is only the start of their problems , already happening in BKK , re: shophouses sinking ????????????????????

[BlackJack]

this is Thailand - its reactive and not proactive

and so bores maybe the go and longer term find another solution if needed

Bangkok is built on the old waterways and so this is why its sinking

[Tejas]

this is Thailand - its reactive and not proactive

and so bores maybe the go and longer term find another solution if needed

Bangkok is built on the old waterways and so this is why its sinking

The situation is more complicated that what you stated.

Bangkok is sinking............true. Why?

There is an aquifer beneath Bangkok. Above the aquifer is a clay layer.

The aquifer is being drained to support economic activity (among other things).....that is the main cause of sinking.

In addition, the destruction of mangrove forests is playing a role.

On the other side, climate change is causing the sea level to rise.

The combination of sinking plus sea level rise will lead to massive flooding in years to come.

That will be an economic disaster the likes of which Thailand has never seen.

But we are off topic again..............this is about drought in Thailand.

If you and the other "skeptics" want to debate global warming and climate change (and it seems that you do), start a new thread.

But I will have nothing to say to most of you...........already put most of you on "ignore."

The MOD clearly does not want us debating global warming and climate change on this thread.

Readers do, however, deserve an xplanation when misleading information is posted.

[RickBradford]

Readers do, however, deserve an xplanation when misleading information is posted.

I agree. So:

On the other side, climate change is causing the sea level to rise.

Sea levels are rising because they were rising in 1950 and in 1920 and in 1880 and in 1850. Sea levels have been steadily rising 1-3mm a year since about 1820 and the end of the little ice age. You can call that 'climate change' if you like, but it certainly isn't 'man-made climate change.'

As for Thailand's drought, the official reports for last week look encouraging:

Northern Part: Widely scattered to scattered rain and heavy rainfall in some areas, except for fairly widespread rain with heavy rainfall in some areas on 3 Jun.

Northeastern Part: Isolated to widely scattered rain during early week then fairly widespread rain with heavy to very heavy rainfall in some areas.

Central Part: Scattered to fairly widespread rain and heavy rainfall in some areas, except for isolated to widely scattered rain with heavy rainfall in some areas on 31 May and 1, 3 Jun.

Eastern Part: Scattered to fairly widespread rain and heavy rainfall in some areas, except for isolated to widely scattered rain with heavy rainfall in some areas on 31 May and 1, 3 Jun.

Southern Part (East Coast): Scattered rain and heavy rainfall in some areas almost the whole week.

Southern Part (West Coast): Isolated rain on the first day of the week then fairly widespread rain and heavy rainfall in some areas.

[dumball]

So , In a nutshell 'The whole of Thailand is about to experience a deluge ' , that most certainly is good news , as long as the forecast is correct .