PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem

[Jimi007]

Here is the Official Thai Government predictions. Which are just that; a prediction. Who can actually predict what will happen? But that's not the topic, weather and drought are: http://www.tmd.go.th/en/index.php

Rainy season 2010 Forecast [May till October]

[Jimi007]

But I am not going to debate the obvious here

"What is obvious to the Fool is uncertain to the Wise" - ancient Persian saying

the dry and hot periods are getting hotter, more dry, and lasting longer.

In the short term, the Thai Meteorological Department disagrees -- it is predicting a rainy season of normal duration (and normal rainfall). In the long term, I am not aware of any research which finds that rainy seasons in South-East Asia are expected to get shorter -- it would be surprising if there were, given the complexity of the monsoon system and the multiplicity of factors involved. But, no doubt, to some people, this is 'obvious' as well.

Most models of 'climate change' predict that rainfall will be greater during the wet seasons, even if the wet seasons do not last any longer than before. No need for panic.

I agree! I just posted the link to the Thai Meteorological Departments long range wet season forecast. But what do they know? Someone obviously knows better...

[Jimi007]

The never ending glut and drought of water can never be solved as long as the rural population continue to try to produce ever increasing volumes of rice.

Produce the same from less land, or the rice industry moguls(another euphemism for thieves) will have to accept that in 30 years time, the surplus volumes acceptable for export cannot be produced and they will have to fight over an ever decreasing volume available for export.

I can understand to a degree the government's dilemma. Everyone wants better irrigation systems today, but the farmers of this country are getting older and older. What is the point of providing irrigation systems if the farmers are not there to use it in 20 years time? What is the point in producing a crop that a large percentage has to be put into storage to maintain the global price? Crop diversification and a reduction of the rice production to a more balanced volume and fairer domestic price is the only way.

Well put! The local rice millers are just more thugs. They pay the lowest they can at harvest, sighting a glut. Then hang on to it until there is a shortage. The same happened this year with sugarcane and sugar production. So the farmer gets ripped off when they sell their crop and then have to borrow money to plant their new crop at a higher rate. Greed by "Big Business." This is the problem in a nutshell...

[Tejas]

To understand what the issue is one must make a distinction between weather and climate.

This what NASA says: The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather iswhat conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climateis how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-termaverages of daily weather.

That is a good summary of the difference between weather and climate.

It also explains why posting short term weather reports ("it rained today so there is no problem") tells us virtually nothing about the climate change problem.

A good proxy measure of climate change in Thailand is gleaned by asking elderly people how hot it is now compared to the past (when they were young).

They all say the same thing (at least in my experience): "Thailand is much hotter today than in the past."

They also say: "Thailand's dry season is longer and hotter."

They also say: "It rained more in the past and the rainy season began earlier."

The evidence--both hard quantitative data and proxy qualitative data--seems to indicate that climate change is taking place, and not only in Thailand, but in all of Southeast Asia.

Posting short term weather reports that show it is raining (when virtually nobody says it should not be raining) is only diverting attention away from a serious problem: long term climate change that is impacting the drought problem.........impacting the timing, amount, and geographic distribution of rainfall.

Most of the poster here know there is a difference between weather and climate. Many are focusing on solutions to the long term climate change problem.

Even if you think there is no climate change problem (and we don't want to argue the point here), it is obvious (at least to most people) there is a serious drought problem..

And solutions to that are needed. So, no matter which side of the fence you are on, solutions to the drought problem are needed.

Perhaps it might be productive to focus on solutions.

<br style="mso-special-character:line-break">

[RickBradford]

The evidence--both hard quantitative data and proxy qualitative data--seems to indicate that climate change is taking place, and not only in Thailand, but in all of Southeast Asia.

Complete nonsense.

Asking old folks whether they think it was hotter 50 years ago is not scientific evidence of any credible kind and it is certainly not 'data'.

And there is no 'hard quantitative data' that climate change (outside normal variation) is taking place in this region. I hope that the Thai government is sensible enough to concentrate on its real water management issues, and not be distracted by fairy stories of global climatic doom.

Edited June 18, 2010 by RickBradford

[Thai at Heart]

To understand what the issue is one must make a distinction between weather and climate.

This what NASA says: The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather iswhat conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climateis how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-termaverages of daily weather.

That is a good summary of the difference between weather and climate.

It also explains why posting short term weather reports ("it rained today so there is no problem") tells us virtually nothing about the climate change problem.

A good proxy measure of climate change in Thailand is gleaned by asking elderly people how hot it is now compared to the past (when they were young).

They all say the same thing (at least in my experience): "Thailand is much hotter today than in the past."

They also say: "Thailand's dry season is longer and hotter."

They also say: "It rained more in the past and the rainy season began earlier."

The evidence--both hard quantitative data and proxy qualitative data--seems to indicate that climate change is taking place, and not only in Thailand, but in all of Southeast Asia.

Posting short term weather reports that show it is raining (when virtually nobody says it should not be raining) is only diverting attention away from a serious problem: long term climate change that is impacting the drought problem.........impacting the timing, amount, and geographic distribution of rainfall.

Most of the poster here know there is a difference between weather and climate. Many are focusing on solutions to the long term climate change problem.

Even if you think there is no climate change problem (and we don't want to argue the point here), it is obvious (at least to most people) there is a serious drought problem..

And solutions to that are needed. So, no matter which side of the fence you are on, solutions to the drought problem are needed.

Perhaps it might be productive to focus on solutions.

<br style="mso-special-character:line-break">

Anecdotal memories are absolutely irrelevant.

Everyone (from a colder climate country) believes there was more snow when they were kids simply because they went out to play in it, whereas in adulthood they are dragged into the office on roads that have been cleared by snowplough.

Vis a vis, grandma growing up in the village, living in a wooden house, running around in rag tag clothes, is now sedentary in a concrete house in front of the fan.

This doesn't mean that Thailand needs to formulate a better water collection system. When grandma was a kid there were 40 mn people in Thailand, today there are 65 and the water demands of agriculture are probably triple what they were when she was a child.

[Tejas]

Anecdotal memories are absolutely irrelevant.

No.....with due respect, you are completely wrong on this point.

The scientific literature, especially the social sciences, if filled with top quality research that combines qualitative data (what you just referred to as "anecdotal memories") with quantitative data.

When both support each other, it is the best evidence one can have.

Now, I suggest focusing on solutions to the severe drought problem in Thailand.

[RickBradford]

The scientific literature, especially the social sciences, if filled with top quality research that combines qualitative data (what you just referred to as "anecdotal memories") with quantitative data.

Thailand's drought, and wider climate issues, should not be treated as a social science. Careful observation and measurement must be used, not anecdotal memories.

[Thai at Heart]

Anecdotal memories are absolutely irrelevant.

No.....with due respect, you are completely wrong on this point.

The scientific literature, especially the social sciences, if filled with top quality research that combines qualitative data (what you just referred to as "anecdotal memories") with quantitative data.

When both support each other, it is the best evidence one can have.

Now, I suggest focusing on solutions to the severe drought problem in Thailand.

I think you will find that the overwhelming amount of data to support MGW is scientific (which has fortunately or unfortunately has had its reputation decimated) and a relatively small amount of anecdotal evidence that is proving to be even more unreliable.

In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC's 2007 report.

It has also emerged that the New Scientist report was itself based on a short telephone interview with Syed Hasnain, a little-known Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.

Hasnain has since admitted that the claim was "speculation" and was not supported by any formal research

World misled over Himalayan glacier meltdown - Times Online

Research on retreating glaciers has been taken up seriously only for the past 25 years. “We are depending largely on anecdotal evidence from old residents in the area for information on glaciers,” says the coordinator for the Worldwide Fund for Nature in Leh

Himalayan glacier meltdown meltdown (Updated) « RBO

Right now, they cannot even conclusively prove a significant long term trend in global warming, its extent, its rate of growth using hundreds if not thousands of years of data, supercomputers and the best scientific brains. I would prefer that they get their ducks in a row concerning the science before they we rely on Somchai the farmer, Yutu the eskimo, and Tensing the sherpa if they reckon in their memory if it getting hotter.

The human memory is being used to back up the rather controversial (some would say patently incorrect) "hockey stick" graph which has thanks to East Anglia University's scientific bunkum been completely discredited. After all the years of having a few voices around the world brave enough to go against the powerful MGW scientific establishment and say the MGW was not true, the "hockey stick" was smashed into smithereens in a deluge of e-mails showing and proving how its existence is not based in REAL data. In the realm of scientific data to prove long or medium term global warming useful human memory spans possily 150 years of records. This would contribute perhaps less than 1% of the data should it be used in a scientific model of climate. Quite how Somchai the farmer will accurately record this data is beyond me. 2515 - Hot, 2516- Cold, 2517 - Hot-, 2518- Cold doesn't make much of a dataset.

Now this is not that I want to believe that the world is warming or not. It is that I want the scientific community to prove it conclusively before we make economic decisions that will have serious effects that go long beyond my lifetime.

[Tejas]

So you apparently posted what you did (RB too) to shift the argument to what the OP said not to debate: Is climate change and global warming real or not?

I have tried my best to not go down that road.

Now, the last issue was the value of qualitative research.

You response shows you do not appreciate its value in science.

Here are just a few examples:

1) Qualitative research often gives rise to quantitative research.

To take one example. At one point people living on islands in the Pacific told a scientist that they thought the ocean was rising............that led to the questioning of other people on many different islands.......many stating the same thing.........."seems like the oceans have been rising".............that led to quantitative research (actual measurements) supporting that, indeed, the oceans are rising.

2) Qualitative research often gives valuable insights into the past. For example, when doing research for the movie Saving Private Ryan, the director got valuable information from people who were actually there..........on the beaches at Normandy.

Are you going to argue those survivors are liars? Stupid? Ignorant of the facts? If so, you might get your ass kicked by some veterans

In the 60s, some researchers talked with elderly Black-Americans about discrimination when they were young (and even what their grandfathers and grandmothers had told them about it). Do yu think what they had to say had no merit? Irrelevant?

Conversations with elderly Thais about climate change are useful.............especially when combined with quantitative data, unless, of course, you think elderly Thais are part of some grand conspiracy to create one world government by adding information that supports climate change and global warming

Again, if you want to engage in a debate amongst yourselves that the OP has warned you not to instigate on this thread, I suggest you start a new thread.

For the record: The cut and paste technique that some posters are engaged in is part of a denial machine funded by Exxon-Mobile (among other like-minded corporations).

The main distributor of the pseudo-scientific information (completely misleading) information that is being postedt is: The George C. Marshall Institute.

Here is one of their directors: William O'Keefe, CEO (GMI); President, Solutions Consulting, Inc. Formerly COO of the American Petroleum Institute and chairman of the Global Climate Coalition, and a registered lobbyist for ExxonMobil.^[6]

That institute was founded by the same people who deliberately:

mislead the American public about acid rain (stating it has nothing to do with the burning of coal)

mislead the American public about cigarette smoking and cancer (stating there was no relationship)

mislead the American public about the ozone hole (stating it had nothing to do with human activity)

By the way, they lost all three of those debates...........and now their successors are trying everything they can to mislead the American public that global warming and climate change have nothing to do with human activities..........or that it is not real.........or that it is part of some grand conspiracy...........or that scientists are debating whether it is real or not....

A good review of what they are up to is here: Merchants of Doubt: How aHandful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to GlobalWarming

In each case (acid rain, cigarettes, ozone hole, and now climate change/global warming) the strategy is to create "doubt."

In fact, there is no doubt. There is no scientific debate: global warming and climate change are real.

People are now focusing on solutions.

I ask you once again to stop trying to divert this thread.

Focus on solutions to the severe drought problem in Thailand.

[RickBradford]

The cut and paste technique that some posters are engaged in is part of a denial machine funded by Exxon-Mobile

Of all the dim-bulb comments you have made on this forum, the notion that some posters here are being paid by an oil company has to take Win, Place and Show.

As if the oil companies could care less what is written on ThaiVisa....

Edited June 18, 2010 by RickBradford

[BlackJack]

there is so much nonsense being posted here and when added into the big mix of other nonsense to prop up ones own nonsense it becomes total nonsense.

There is scientific data from reputable sources being posted to debunk someones opinion - Data from government sources and the military. However it is being labeled as a conspiracy and working for the big brother companies. What nonsense!!!

When someone makes a statement "The dry season is much longer in Thailand.............etc............apples to oranges" then you have to think they are only looking out their front door and to seeing whats in front of them" - again only someones opinion. But such a general sweeping opinion.

I can say with fact that it rains long and hard for 8 months of the year in the south of Thailand and has done for may many years. So how does one say such general sweeping statements about all of Thailand?

How do i know? I looked out the door and asked gran ma if things changed since she was a kid. She said things changed only after the Tsunami but it still rains long and hard.

There are pockets of dry in Thailand and some of these pockets now have rain. This is being posted as one minute its drought with a months water left, next its raining and so this pocket area is taken of the list.

Sounds natural to me and as pointed out happens naturally all over the World.

So its possible to deduce from this forum that someones trying to grow apples in an orange growing area. Yes / NO

Well get with the program. If the soils bad and it dont rain then either move on or call in the land doctor to advise on how to reclaim the land by setting up small eco systems.

There is a famous Australia guy who has done this to many farm areas of Australia. My suggestion is to have them fly out the best minds in the World to show the drought stricken areas how to manage this natural phenomenon!

Me somehow thinks that this whole thread is about something that the gov is really not interested in and its just something to hang out to the north to appease the reds.

So knock yourselves out

[Jimi007]

So you apparently posted what you did (RB too) to shift the argument to what the OP said not to debate: Is climate change and global warming real or not?

I have tried my best to not go down that road.

Now, the last issue was the value of qualitative research.

You response shows you do not appreciate its value in science.

Here are just a few examples:

1) Qualitative research often gives rise to quantitative research.

To take one example. At one point people living on islands in the Pacific told a scientist that they thought the ocean was rising............that led to the questioning of other people on many different islands.......many stating the same thing.........."seems like the oceans have been rising".............that led to quantitative research (actual measurements) supporting that, indeed, the oceans are rising.

2) Qualitative research often gives valuable insights into the past. For example, when doing research for the movie Saving Private Ryan, the director got valuable information from people who were actually there..........on the beaches at Normandy.

Are you going to argue those survivors are liars? Stupid? Ignorant of the facts? If so, you might get your ass kicked by some veterans

In the 60s, some researchers talked with elderly Black-Americans about discrimination when they were young (and even what their grandfathers and grandmothers had told them about it). Do yu think what they had to say had no merit? Irrelevant?

Conversations with elderly Thais about climate change are useful.............especially when combined with quantitative data, unless, of course, you think elderly Thais are part of some grand conspiracy to create one world government by adding information that supports climate change and global warming

Again, if you want to engage in a debate amongst yourselves that the OP has warned you not to instigate on this thread, I suggest you start a new thread.

For the record: The cut and paste technique that some posters are engaged in is part of a denial machine funded by Exxon-Mobile (among other like-minded corporations).

The main distributor of the pseudo-scientific information (completely misleading) information that is being postedt is: The George C. Marshall Institute.

Here is one of their directors: William O'Keefe, CEO (GMI); President, Solutions Consulting, Inc. Formerly COO of the American Petroleum Institute and chairman of the Global Climate Coalition, and a registered lobbyist for ExxonMobil.^[6]

That institute was founded by the same people who deliberately:

mislead the American public about acid rain (stating it has nothing to do with the burning of coal)

mislead the American public about cigarette smoking and cancer (stating there was no relationship)

mislead the American public about the ozone hole (stating it had nothing to do with human activity)

By the way, they lost all three of those debates...........and now their successors are trying everything they can to mislead the American public that global warming and climate change have nothing to do with human activities..........or that it is not real.........or that it is part of some grand conspiracy...........or that scientists are debating whether it is real or not....

A good review of what they are up to is here: Merchants of Doubt: How aHandful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to GlobalWarming

In each case (acid rain, cigarettes, ozone hole, and now climate change/global warming) the strategy is to create "doubt."

In fact, there is no doubt. There is no scientific debate: global warming and climate change are real.

People are now focusing on solutions.

I ask you once again to stop trying to divert this thread.

Focus on solutions to the severe drought problem in Thailand.

So you apparently posted what you did (RB too) to shift the argument to what the OP said not to debate: Is climate change and global warming real or not?

The OP never said that! The OP was:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva voices his concern over the severe drought problem, admitting that the remaining amount of water in main dams may be enough for only another 2 months.

Read more: PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem - Thailand Forum PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem - Thailand Forum

The first line in your first post on this thread was:

Unfortunately, due to our environmentally unsound economic activities (principally our reliance on non-renewable energy), climate change is a reality.

You are the one who has derailed this thread. Edited June 18, 2010 by Jimi007

[BlackJack]

but she wont listen

[Tejas]

Another series of "productive posts."

Unless you want to focus on solutions to the drought problem in Thailand, you should start another post and talk to each other till you "knock yourselves out.".

Now, the topic is: Severe Drought in Thailand

[BlackJack]

Another series of "productive posts."

Unless you want to focus on solutions to the drought problem in Thailand, you should start another post and talk to each other till you "knock yourselves out.".

Now, the topic is: Severe Drought in Thailand

try reading the post again

many suggestions re drought or perceived

stop baiting people

[BlackJack]

CSIRO in Australia has been very active in land management for many many years

loads of info for anyone considering becoming a farmer or wanting to use info to help maintain the land.

Maintain the land and there will be no drought.

[Tejas]

CSIRO in Australia has been very active in land management for many many years

loads of info for anyone considering becoming a farmer or wanting to use info to help maintain the land.

Maintain the land and there will be no drought.

Good...........please summarize what they advocate.

And post the link where the claim is made "maintain the land and there will be no drought."

My guess is that is is far more complicated than that.

[cdnvic]

Enough of the Exxon references. Keep it local and sensible or keep quiet.

[BlackJack]

CSIRO in Australia has been very active in land management for many many years

loads of info for anyone considering becoming a farmer or wanting to use info to help maintain the land.

Maintain the land and there will be no drought.

Good...........please summarize what they advocate.

And post the link where the claim is made "maintain the land and there will be no drought."

My guess is that is is far more complicated than that.

No need to answer. This will be my last response to you

Read more: PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem - Thailand Forum - Page 3 PM Abhisit With Grave Concern Over Thailand's Severe Drought Problem - Thailand Forum - Page 3

so PLEASE keep your word

[BlackJack]

well i just couldnt resist revisiting this drought forum

months down the track and THailand has had such bad flooding that there is a whole season of crops that couldnt be planted

many houses flooded and damaged

and and and

further a field we have had the worst floods in Australias top end -

London has had its coldest days on record

so reading back on this thread people can make up their own minds on the truth

time to close this one now as the droughts over