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Se Asia Getting Closer To Usa In Response To Chinese Rising Power


Jingthing

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I am very impressed with the Thai Visa members to express such thoughtful and insightful commentary. We truly have a number of educated and insightful contributors to these complex political-economic circumstances. I have studied and traveled to China and SE Asia as part of my MBA as well as studying the region as part of my military career. I also lived in Thailand for 3 years and am familiar with the politico-economic situation. From my military and business professors I can tell you that China military and political influence is expected to continue throughout Asia and western influence will decrease. America and China are closely tied economically but vehemently opposed militarily. Thailand's best option is to play a game of favorites between both countries. USA wants to maintain a relationship with the democratic government and the supportive independent military. China needs trade and a relationship with Thailand and will press for that. Thailand is in a unique position to leverage itself between both countries for the immediate future.

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The economic linkage is very important.

In Asia, China has a pegged currency protected by capital controls to the US$.

Its major competitors in SE Asia have dirty pegs essentially aimed at competing with China but not protected by capital controls.

As a result SE Asian countries are subject to speculation that China will eventually appreciate as it chooses and see their currencies either appreciate or must sterilize. Ultimately this creates a degree of tension between China and its SE neighbors because they tend to lose competitiveness to China's benefit.

It is axiomatic to a pegged currency that it has to have free capital movement or else it is not subject to market forces. If the RMB wishes to be independent that enables it to institute capital controls.

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Well, let me go back on topic and the very first 2 sentences of the OP:

"This is interesting, 1. as many have predicted SE Asia would simply cave in to Chinese power and indeed bullying in the region. On the contrary, 2. the trend now is to ally more with the USA to balance out some of that power. To my view, this is encouraging news. 3. Not sure how Thailand fits in with this trend yet, do you? "

1. Who are the "many that predicted SE Asia would simply cave in to Chinese Power and indeed bullying in the region...." ? Can you answer that please Jingthing ?

2. The trend ? what trend ? see below*

3. Thailand? I think quite a few posters have answered to this question already, meaning Thailand is eating as much as possible from 2 tables....Chinese food and American food.

SE Asia: "the trend is to ally more with the USA"

Which countries in SE Asia is the OP talking about and which countries DO ally more-and-more with the USA ?

SE Asian countries:

BRUNEI - are they more allying with the US ? How ? a "country" with less than 400,000 people, controlled by one man ?

CAMBODIA - are they pro China, USA or both ? - less than 15 million people - a dead poor country but with 45% exports to the US but 90% imports (thus DEPENDING) from Asia from which 25% from Thailand.

INDONESIA - Islamic country, 250 million people -allying more-and-more with the US? really ? How? 10% exports to the US and more than 60% to Asia; Imports: 5% from the USA, rest mainly from Asia.

LAOS - Communistic; no comment

MALAYSIA - mainly Islamic; pro US or China or both? 26 million people -More than 50% exports to Asia - 10% to the US; Imports 60% from Asia, 9,4% from US

MYANMAR - (CIA names it Burma, still) China oriented; no comment needed - 53 million people

PHILIPPINES - USA and China; opportunistic; 100 million people - Exports more than 50% to Asia; US 15% - Imports mainloy from Asia, US 11,5%

SINGAPORE - allying more with USA? really ? 4,7 million people - S'pore depends for it's largest part on China and Asia trade; without it and S'pore collapses. Exports US; 6,5% rest mainly Asia; - Imports 12% US rest mainly Asia

THAILAND - Opportunistic and eating from 2 tables; 66 million people - would be difficult to survive without either US and/or China

VIETNAM - Communistic but opportunistic country - 90 million people -and eating from 2 tables

EAST TIMOR falls out of the basket, although belonging to SE Asia.

I wonder where the "encouraging news" is that SE Asian countries are allying more with the USA to balance the "bullying" China power. :blink:

IMO the whole OP topic and the Washington Post article upon which the OP bases his opinion is a wind blow, nothing more.

Nothing more than one of the thousands anti-China articles, appearing day-in-day-out and based upon fear for the unknown -China and it's culture-, not the reality of a non-existing dangerous "bullying" China.

Everybody and every country is free to do business with China, or not; the same as everybody is free to do business with the US, or not.

Does anyone realize that GM is forecasting that it will sell 2 million cars in China in 2010 versus Ford a mere 440.000 in 2009 ? On a total of 13,6 million cars/2009 sold in China (well above the US with 10.4M cars and light trucks) that's a stiff number and I think the US's workers producing these cars are very pleased with China's demand ;)

I think it's time to stop talking negative about China and stop "encourage" the alleged presence of the US in SE Asia and beyond.

We live on a small planet and we can't do without each other anymore; the time that a country could be self-supporting is definitely over, and if you can't beat them...join them.

* most country facts from CIA and car sales from Google

LaoPo

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How weird...versus the OP's article :whistling:

China paper warns military thinking outmoded

(Reuters) - China's military thinking is outmoded and should learn from others, especially the United States, when it comes to modernizing its vast armed forces, a leading armed forces newspaper said on Sunday.

excerpt:

"China has been slimming down its military, the world's largest by number, for the past few years, trying to build a more effective force to face U.S.-supplied Taiwan and Japan, as well as the United States itself.

But this needs creativity and more open thinking, the newspaper said, which could be a problem.

"As there is a rather large influence of conservative thinking in traditional Chinese culture, the task of renewing the culture and thinking of our military will be extremely arduous," it wrote. "

Continues here:

http://www.reuters.c...E67E07020100815

LaoPo

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Laopoa,

I accept every word you sat except for the fact that China has strict capital controls. I have no problem with its currency peg so long as it is freely tradable. It is bridging the 'impossible triangle' at other peoples expense.

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Laopoa,

I accept every word you sat except for the fact that China has strict capital controls. I have no problem with its currency peg so long as it is freely tradable. It is bridging the 'impossible triangle' at other peoples expense.

I think you confuse me with another poster; I didn't write that.

LaoPo

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Everybody and every country is free to do business with China, or not; the same as everybody is free to do business with the US, or not.

Does anyone realize that GM is forecasting that it will sell 2 million cars in China in 2010 versus Ford a mere 440.000 in 2009 ? On a total of 13,6 million cars/2009 sold in China (well above the US with 10.4M cars and light trucks) that's a stiff number and I think the US's workers producing these cars are very pleased with China's demand ;)

LaoPo

Apart from spelling your name wrong and not explaining myself properly I didnt get you confused.

Of course people have the freedom to choose who they do business with but capital controls impose costs. To the extent that the Chinese currency is undervalued I have no freedom to speculate against it. To the extent Thailand's own currency appreciates I can choose still to buy from Thailand if I pay more. Or Thailand can suppress its currency and accumulate losses in its capital account. I am sure the 52,000 GM workers appreciate the sales in China although GM employed 278,000 in 1970.

Ultimately the freedom to peg your currency without exposure to market forces either hollows out the economies of your customers or takes advantage of your competitors. Free trade is free. Capital controls bear costs. If everyone imposes 30% import tariffs on China, everyone would still be free to trade with them or not. To be honest Laopo, I think it was more of an issue 3 or 4 years ago, inflation has rendered their currency far less undervalued than before and wage costs are now higher than Thailand. Economically though it is a total nonsense for the second largest economy in the world to have both a peg and capital controls to the Central Reserve Currency.

If you consider that China accounts for 5% of S&P500 earnings and China employs 120 million manufacturing workers while the US employs 12m, you just have to wonder whether it is free.

I do not like its capital controls but I am massively impressed by its banking system. Shame about the demographics.

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Apart from spelling your name wrong and not explaining myself properly I didnt get you confused.

Of course people have the freedom to choose who they do business with but capital controls impose costs. To the extent that the Chinese currency is undervalued I have no freedom to speculate against it. To the extent Thailand's own currency appreciates I can choose still to buy from Thailand if I pay more. Or Thailand can suppress its currency and accumulate losses in its capital account. I am sure the 52,000 GM workers appreciate the sales in China although GM employed 278,000 in 1970.

Ultimately the freedom to peg your currency without exposure to market forces either hollows out the economies of your customers or takes advantage of your competitors. Free trade is free. Capital controls bear costs. If everyone imposes 30% import tariffs on China, everyone would still be free to trade with them or not. To be honest Laopo, I think it was more of an issue 3 or 4 years ago, inflation has rendered their currency far less undervalued than before and wage costs are now higher than Thailand. Economically though it is a total nonsense for the second largest economy in the world to have both a peg and capital controls to the Central Reserve Currency.

If you consider that China accounts for 5% of S&P500 earnings and China employs 120 million manufacturing workers while the US employs 12m, you just have to wonder whether it is free.

I do not like its capital controls but I am massively impressed by its banking system. Shame about the demographics.

I agree with much what you write but many forget that the "business/manufacturing story" from China is not even 3 decades old if one considers that Mao died in only 1976.

If it wouldn't have been for Deng Xiaoping, China would still be closed as a fortress. He was the very first Chinese leader who visited the USA in 1979....a very short while ago when one thinks of the Chinese history of thousands of years.

In our western European-, North American- and Australian countries, the manufacturing economies/processes have been developing and building since 100-150 years.

What China did, was created in a mere 20-30 years and is mind boggling. There is no other country-comparison in the entire world that has accomplished the same of what China did on such a short notice.

If I see the difference of what I saw 30 years ago and now....is simply unexplainable, yet, many people who've never been there complain and bash upon China.

The point is that they're afraid of the unknown.

They can handle a cozy and nice holiday country like Thailand or Indonesia, Philippines perhaps, but they can't completely comprehense China since it is.............so much, so many, so fast and so difficult (for us, westerners)

I must say: it's not easy to do so but we have no other choice than to cooperate with China and the rest of Asia.

The west once dominated Asia when Asians were considered as poor souls not knowing how and what, when and how much.........

but: no more and no longer we can tell the Asians what to do.

They are fast learners, with the Japanese, S Koreans and Chinese, Taiwanese in the lead, next to HK and Singapore.

LaoPo

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Laopo,

Where I absolutely agree with you is that China has been incredibly successful beyond anything that has been achieved before.

What I believe scares people is that its development and its economy have been created through a combination of capitalism and central government control. It seems to have avoided the crises of capitalism by a high degree of central control. Western economies have been deregulating. We criticize Greenspan and Bernanke for not controlling asset prices while believing in free markets.

But one thing seems universal in economics, the endurance of success will be reflected in disaster.

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Laopo,

Where I absolutely agree with you is that China has been incredibly successful beyond anything that has been achieved before.

What I believe scares people is that its development and its economy have been created through a combination of capitalism and central government control. It seems to have avoided the crises of capitalism by a high degree of central control. Western economies have been deregulating. We criticize Greenspan and Bernanke for not controlling asset prices while believing in free markets.

But one thing seems universal in economics, the endurance of success will be reflected in disaster.

Good views and I agree that endurance of success can be reflected in disaster, but than again....

Disaster? Napoleon said it already: " l'Histoire se répète " - History repeats itself.

Of course China will face it's own bad periods, disasters even, whether natural or man-made, but it can't be as gruesome and bad as the present elderly generation of circa 50+ has been enduring during the Mao era and before that....believe me, I know!

It can't possibly become any worse*, ever, unless the world faces a total destruction but in that case we won't be answering each other anymore on this forum and NOTHING matters anymore.

* ever heard of the Nanjing or Nanking Massacre ?

LaoPo

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Laopo,

No disaster can match its success but the very way you describe its success 'mind boggling' etc should lead you to understand that there will be a backfire as with every favoured economy and its success, which I believe, in China's case, as outmatched every expectation, will lead to a very very difficult period. I also believe that China can change quantity into quality for its people which is a huge plus.

What I find very difficult to work out is whether China is carrying Asia or competing against it.

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I want to add this new Washington Post "propaganda" (as a others would describe it) to this thread as it amplifies the massive military buildup China is now undertaking. Yes I said I was quitting this thread, but this is about a news link that I think will be helpful to others who feel they can continue the discussion within the proscribed limitations.

http://www.washingto...0081605074.html

Economic powerhouse China focuses on its military might

China is quickly modernizing its military and has set its sights on extending its influence deep into the Pacific and Indian oceans now that the military balance with its longtime nemesis, Taiwan, is tilting in its favor, the Defense Department reported Monday.

Edited by bonobo
removed oblique slam on another poster
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Reading a book about the history of China, I was surprised when it maintained that China never won a war against anybody. Logically the nations of SE Asia, would know this.

Eisenhower warned about the military/industrial complex in the USA, and he probably knew a thing or two about it.

This fear of China, is probably US propaganda. The Pentagon is trying to preserve the military budget, with the wars in Iraq and Afganistan beiginning a wind-down.

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. this thread as it amplifies the massive military buildup China is now undertaking. Yes I said I was quitting this thread, but this is about a news link that I think will be helpful to others who feel they can continue the discussion within the proscribed limitations.

Another fine piece of one-sided propaganda since the article doesn't speak of massive military buildup but YOU do <_<

And you forget to focus on another side of the story:

".........Obama administration approved the sale of $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan"

Quitting your own thread but still feeding it with the anti-China propaganda, so that "others who feel they can continue the discussion within the proscribed limitations" ?

Is calling me names amongst those limitations ? :bah:

LaoPo

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 I want to add this new Washington Post "propaganda" (as a others would describe it) to this thread as it amplifies the massive military buildup China is now undertaking. Yes I said I was quitting this thread, but this is about a news link that I think will be helpful to others who feel they can continue the discussion within the proscribed limitations.

http://www.washingto...0081605074.html

Economic powerhouse China focuses on its military might

China is quickly modernizing its military and has set its sights on extending its influence deep into the Pacific and Indian oceans now that the military balance with its longtime nemesis, Taiwan, is tilting in its favor, the Defense Department reported Monday.

As Jombom points out this is pure fantasy.

There is absolutely no evidence of a 'massive' build up of its military by China. Military spending is about 2.0% of GDP compared to 4.3% in the US. The US budget is 7x that of China's and China's spend as a percent of GDP is probably slightly below the global average.

Even Taiwan's spend which is a tenth of China's is not high a percent of GDP - and there is clearly no arms race between the two. Obviously China's military is modernizing along with the whole economy.

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"US military spending reflects the unaffordable and unattainable crazed neoconservative goal of US Empire and world hegemony. What fool in Washington thinks that China is going to finance US hegemony over China?"

This quote is from an important article* which was sent to me by a dear friend from Australia; without his mail I wouldn't have read it.

The article is written by:

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is the father of Reaganomics and the former head of policy at the Department of Treasury. He is a columnist and was previously an editor for the Wall Street Journal. His latest book, "How the Economy Was Lost: The War of the Worlds," details why America is disintegrating.

* The Ecstacy of Empire

Last sentence is:

"Without a revolution, Americans are history."

http://www.infowars....tasy-of-empire/

Food for Thought ;)

LaoPo

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Reading a book about the history of China, I was surprised when it maintained that China never won a war against anybody.

The Chinese have always ended up fighting with each other and someday the government is going to have to remove its boot from the neck of the populace. The proponents of China someday becoming the dominating superpower always seem to ignore this well known fact. :whistling:

Edited by Ulysses G.
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Vietnam seems to have already forgotten that tiny blip on their long history, the American War. They will never forget the threat and reality of CHINESE domination.

That's because they won the former and would lose the latter.

ps thanks for you kind words. One tries.

Really? Vietnam has already kicked China's backside on more than one occasion. Do you recall the border clashes of the 80's?

You remember Pol Pot don't you? He was being backed by the Chinese right to the end. It was the Vietnamese that got rid of him by invading and ending the genocide. The world owes Vietnam a debt of gratitude. Vietnam is the only country in the region that stands up to the Chinese on a regular basis. India has clashed with China before and there is no love lost between the two regional powers as they compete for scarce resources. If China ever tries to push Vietnam around, the Vietnamese will fight back. So too will the Philippinos and Malaysians. China can rattle its sabre all it wants, but for all intents and purposes it is surrounded by countries that are not allies and that cannot be relied upon. That's a far cry from the USA which has its most reliable ally and biggest trading partner on an undefended border. Even Europe breathes easier today. On one side of the ocean is the reliable ally of Canada & the USA and the other side of the land mass are the obnoxious but non beligerent Russians. It's the Russians that have to worry with a land border crammed with crazy 3rd world nations and China.

In any case, sit back and watch the fun as China is gripped by droughts, potable water shortages, toxic pollution, civil unrest and resource shortages.. The USA is the only super power sitting pretty as it has secure energy suppliers in Canada and Mexico and has the benefit of Canada's abundant natural resources and stable economy. No other super power has that resource advantage. The EU is dependent upon Russian natural gas now. And China? It has to go and find key resources.

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Vietnam seems to have already forgotten that tiny blip on their long history, the American War. They will never forget the threat and reality of CHINESE domination.

That's because they won the former and would lose the latter.

ps thanks for you kind words. One tries.

Really? Vietnam has already kicked China's backside on more than one occasion.

Thanks for the facts. :jap:

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Reading a book about the history of China, I was surprised when it maintained that China never won a war against anybody.

The Chinese have always ended up fighting with each other and someday the government is going to have to remove its boot from the neck of the populace. The proponents of China someday becoming the dominating superpower always seem to ignore this well known fact. :whistling:

Like there were so many wars (in only a few centuries) betweens the "Americans" on their own soil before they "settled" and formed the present USA, the Chinese will not fight amongst themselves anymore. Everyone is too busy making money, like us, Farang.

And, the boot-from-the-neck has already been removed for it's largest part and it will take another 2-3 decades before China is becoming more and more democratic; it takes time for a locked up giant to become free.

If it's done too quickly, anarchy will arise and the results would be devastating, not just for China and it's people but for the whole region and Thailand and neighboring countries in particular, read: a super tsunami of fleeing Chinese.

You don't want to see that happening in Chiang Mai, UG !

It's so easy for others to criticize upon China, a country with 1.300.000.000 Million people but only a linited number of people are capable of managing such a country and those people are the Chinese themselves.

Not a single -other- government in the world could do such a job.

Maybe you should have a read of this, written by your fellow American, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts:

start with the last sentence:

"Without a revolution, Americans are history." ;)

http://www.infowars....tasy-of-empire/

LaoPo

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In any case, sit back and watch the fun as China is gripped by droughts, potable water shortages, toxic pollution, civil unrest and resource shortages.. The USA is the only super power sitting pretty as it has secure energy suppliers in Canada and Mexico and has the benefit of Canada's abundant natural resources and stable economy. No other super power has that resource advantage. The EU is dependent upon Russian natural gas now. And China? It has to go and find key resources.

:bah:...you have fun when other people starve, die, are in pain, intoxicated, killed, murdered ? :blink:

Do you also enjoy it when your own people die; did you enjoy 9/11...?

Did you find it "fun" that 4,500 of your own US soldiers died in Iraq; and more than 1,100 in Afghanistan ?

Do enjoy it when you read about 20 million Pakistani who're suffering from the most dreadful natural disaster in history where thousands were killed and even more to come because of diseases...?

Do you have fun if people are blown into pieces in the world because of so many bombings ?

Or is it because your words "watch the fun" are only about Chinese people, individuals, who look a bit different than you and me ?

Unbelievable. I have no words for this.

You need help.

LaoPo

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Maybe you should have a read of this, written by your fellow American, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts:

Charles Manson was an American too and he might be more sane than Mr. Roberts. What a loon.

If an esteemed Dr.writes something which doesn't fit within your own ideas he's a loon?

Than there must a lot of loons in your country.

How silly.

LaoPo

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Finally a well balanced piece of reporting:

Analysis: China and U.S. playing risky game on the high seas

post-13995-089048900 1282081143_thumb.jp National flags of U.S. and China wave in front of an international hotel in Beijing in this February 4, 2010 file photo. Credit: Reuters/Jason Lee

By Ben Blanchard

BEIJING Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:45am EDT

BEIJING (Reuters) - The game of military bluff that China and the United States are playing off the Chinese coast could erupt in full-fledged crisis hitting the arteries of global trade if Pentagon worries about missteps ever come true.

China has been investing big slices of its growing wealth in modernizing its military, and turning its once creaky navy into a blue water fleet that can project power far from its shores, with nuclear submarines and, maybe one day, aircraft carriers.

China is sending naval vessels further afield, to the waters off Somalia to fight pirates, and most recently through the southern Japanese islands, to Tokyo's angst.

That also worries Washington, the world's dominant power, which keeps a hefty military presence in the Asia-Pacific.

While war between the two economically intertwined powers remains a remote possibility, the Pentagon warned on Monday of risks of "misunderstanding and miscalculation" getting out of hand in this trade-driven part of the world plied by thousands of ships daily carrying cargo and oil.

"The U.S. military and the Chinese military don't have a common understanding, a rules of the road, for navigation. That's a major cause for concern," said Drew Thompson, a China expert at the Nixon Center in Washington.

The United States for its part has moved advanced attack submarines and warships to bases in Japan and Guam. It has shown no sign of giving up surveillance missions in what it considers international waters and which infuriate Beijing.

Through missteps or miscalculations, the shadowing and jostling between the two sides could flare into a crisis drawing in other governments around the region and rattling investors who fear discord between Beijing and Washington.

The past few years have seen a number of incidents between the two sides, most seriously in 2001, when a U.S. spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. China released the 24 crew after a U.S. apology and a tense couple of days.

Continues here:

http://www.reuters.c...E67G10J20100817

LaoPo

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For Communists, they sure seem to really like McDonalds, Starbucks and BMW.

Less than 6% of the population is member of the CPC but 94% is not and likes it too. ;)

LaoPo

Its the history of the terrible treatment the Chinese Communist Party meeters out to those that dont comply with thier doctrine that concerns me, be it thier own people or other Nations populations, re the 60's pograms and still today in Tibet

From what I have seen in China, Chinese officials dont seem to have any respect or consideration for human rights or ordinary peoples aspirations at all...Comply or die!

The prime motivation of Chinese mmunist Government to move partially towards free markets which has led to China's rise on the World stage (which we are witnessing now) was not to raise the living standards of its people but to provide material wealth to the majority of the population so they are content enough not to challenge the dominance of the Communist Party.

The prime motivation is political stability and the material consumtion supports this to keep the Communists in power.

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The prime motivation of Chinese mmunist Government to move partially towards free markets which has led to China's rise on the World stage (which we are witnessing now) was not to raise the living standards of its people but to provide material wealth to the majority of the population so they are content enough not to challenge the dominance of the Communist Party.

The prime motivation is political stability and the material consumtion supports this to keep the Communists in power.

That's a good observation and true.

The question remains: what would YOU (or anybody else) have done, after Deng Xiaoping opened the country some 30 years ago, assuming (in that case) you were Chinese ?

It's easy to criticize a country, a (communistic) system, a government, a population and I see that happen here since I became a member, whether it's criticizing the USA, China, Thailand or another country, but rarely....seldom, someone comes up with an intelligent well thought answer.

In China's case the situation is enormously complex but for a country this size and huge population there WAS no other option than to gradually open the country, liberate it's people.

If not, civil wars (yes with an "s") would have broken out with mind boggling consequences, also for the region and Thailand in particular since Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar -and North in Russia-, are not standing in line to welcome an exodus from Chinese and also don't have the infrastructure and means to cope with millions of refugees, fleeing such civil wars.

Thailand isn't exactly wealthy enough to "welcome" an exodus but Chinese would rather opt for Thailand than another country in the region. ..fleeing to N Korea is also not a very welcoming idea, is it?

Again, it's simple, easy, quick to comment and criticize but it's not so easy to steer a country with 1,3 billion people, especially when that country was locked for such a long time.

LaoPo

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The prime motivation of Chinese mmunist Government to move partially towards free markets which has led to China's rise on the World stage (which we are witnessing now) was not to raise the living standards of its people but to provide material wealth to the majority of the population so they are content enough not to challenge the dominance of the Communist Party.

The prime motivation is political stability and the material consumtion supports this to keep the Communists in power.

That's a good observation and true.

Money can't buy you love. ;)

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Breaking in here with even more recent news from the so called American propaganda machine (oh my, they are such big liars!) about Chinese aggression in the Asean region --

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_usa_china_sea

Southeast Asian states have become worried by China's increasingly aggressive stance on the complex set of disputes. In late July, Chinese naval forces carried out drills in the disputed southern waters amid tension with Washington over security on the Korean peninsula and in the South China Sea.

Edited by Jingthing
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