The Race To 20 Thb Per Dollar

[Chunky1]

"Bernanke: Fed will take action if economy falters"

take action, meaning, PRINT MORE MONEY.

:whistling:

[smokie36]

If the US dollar falls apart you'd be better off staying in Thailand and earning a few crumbs I would have thought.

[Jingthing]

I'd feel some serious pressure at 20, that's for sure.

[JPPR2]

Its no different than any where else in the world. You adjust.

[Jingthing]

Its no different than any where else in the world. You adjust.

For those who started here at 40ish to the baht we have already been adjusting. Most people will have their breaking point where Thailand just gets not worth it compared to other places. If 20 doesn't do it to you, how about 1 to 1? A bottle of green tea at 7-11, 20 dollars, how about that? Get the point?

[flying]

If the US dollar falls apart you'd be better off staying in Thailand and earning a few crumbs I would have thought.

Sure stay where the food is ....always a good idea...but

Will you be allowed ?

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Those folks may not be able to come up with the 400k-800k in baht to satisfy their retirement visas if their $ is worth 20 instead of 30-something baht/ 1$

Also where many use the easy oath/pledge route that they have such funds coming in monthly to meet the monthly income requirements. If comparable currencies do in fact drop to half worth I am betting the Thai authorities will be much more stringent on proof of incomes. They do not want to be stuck with folks without means...same as many other countries.

[Thakkar]

25

[Jingthing]

I expect to see 25 as that is a historic level and I think the baht will want to test it. Not sure how long we have though until it gets there.

[Chunky1]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

[Chunky1]

A new 100m2 Condo on Lad Phrao will cost $500,000.

[JPPR2]

I did not say how you would, just said you will. May or may not be in here in Thailand. But you will adjust.

[smokie36]

If the US dollar falls apart you'd be better off staying in Thailand and earning a few crumbs I would have thought.

Sure stay where the food is ....always a good idea...but

Will you be allowed ?

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

Those folks may not be able to come up with the 400k-800k in baht to satisfy their retirement visas if their $ is worth 20 instead of 30-something baht/ 1$

Also where many use the easy oath/pledge route that they have such funds coming in monthly to meet the monthly income requirements. If comparable currencies do in fact drop to half worth I am betting the Thai authorities will be much more stringent on proof of incomes. They do not want to be stuck with folks without means...same as many other countries.

I agree with you on keeping the minimum visa funds in a Thai account especially when interest rates are rock bottom back home.

A lot fewer retirees on Samui these days I notice and certainly the trend will continue away from the expensive tourist areas and more will settle in Pattaya and the north.

Sad state of affairs if it gets to 20...let's hope it never happens!

[TAWP]

If the dollar:tbh reaches down to 1:15 it would start to be more profitable to work on contracts against Asian companies instead of American...but there is always European left, so in general, the dollar diving would not force me or anyone around me to leave...

[JPPR2]

If you have all your money in BHT, what difference would it make? Your concern would be the cost of living rising at that point. I guess I could see the concern if you are you constantly converting funds from the country you came from and the value is eroding.

If you have $800K bht in a Thailand bank to meet your visa requirement it is $800K bht. Now if you are living out of it and have to replenish it at the time of renewal then again I can appreciate your concern

Edited August 27, 2010 by JPPR2

[Jimi007]

I'm not sure of a number, but 20, would probably get me going. I'm already thinking about my easiest plan B. I should get restarted on a fiance visa, just in case, as they take a while... I still have a fully paid for house in a pretty nice area. Not quite as warm though, but close to the ocean.

[Jingthing]

Wow, the Filip-peso is still quite weak, at 45 to the dollar so maybe not following the baht. Next year in Dumaguette?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

buy a condo to rent out. Then you are paid in baht and don't have sweat the exchange rate........much.

[Jingthing]

Yeah I can see how people who are totally baht-ized might like this trend.

[flying]

If you have all your money in BHT, what difference would it make? Your concern would be the cost of living rising at that point. I guess I could see the concern if you are you constantly converting funds from the country you came from and the value is eroding.

If you have $800K bht in a Thailand bank to meet your visa requirement it is $800K bht. Now if you are living out of it and have to replenish it at the time of renewal then again I can appreciate your concern

There in lies the rub.......

Funny but most folks still feel unsure about Asian banks.

I actually feel better about Asian banks than western banks even without the FDIC...But that is another subject

So many do not convert large amounts to baht but convert only as needed.

Also some folks live on a set income via pensions or SS so convert monthly anyway.

Lastly as I said in my post above...I do not know why folks do take their visa money out in between checks.

Could be they need it or could be they feel safer doing so & lastly perhaps they feel it is better to take a chance & make it work for them at higher rates elsewhere.

I am not retired & only spend a few months a year in our LOS home but...If I lived there full time I would always keep at least a few years expense in baht.

[Jimi007]

buy a condo to rent out. Then you are paid in baht and don't have sweat the exchange rate........much.

Ah, are people renting all these condos or villas they have bought at a peak price? I met a guy the other night that had bought three condos and none are rented. I have a friend that did a spec house two years ago, he's sweating it. Another guy I know borrowed money to open a restaurant last year that I just saw closed. Another guy I used to play golf with just closed his restaurant and he's had successful restaurants in several countries. The Thai economy may be in a bubble or is everyone just dumping dollars for baht? We'll see what happens!

[gregb]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

You don't know why flying? You? I thought of all people you would understand why. Some of us don't like receiving next to nothing by holding a worthless bunch of paper. So instead, we buy gold. Then we sell gold 3 months before the visa comes due. Rinse and repeat. That way, we at least get 9 months of positive upside potential.

Unfortunately, some people make the mistake of thinking that foreign currencies like the USD are also a better store of value than THB. I think they are wrong, but different strokes for different folks I guess.

In any case, I never expect 20. At that level of pain, at least one Asean country will break away (my bet is Vietnam) and try and race the USD to the bottom in an attempt to save their export industries. Thailand will be forced to follow suit. I can't imagine the government allowing much below 25 - 27. Beyond that they will print and accept domestic inflation instead of job loss. It is politically more acceptable. I read one study 2 years ago where they predicted exports would fall by 50% if the Baht went to 29. Probably exaggerated to some degree, but it is obvious that when prices rise people in the US will learn to do without, and that will affect Thailand greatly.

However you look at it, the answer is that we all need to learn to live on alot less. Does it really matter to people on a fixed income in USD whether their income in Baht terms gets cut in half, or their expenses in Baht terms double?

The fact is, the credit bubble has popped, and we all need to accept that poverty will be the new norm for the forseeable future. The wealth that we thought we had for the last several decades was never real. It was an illusion caused by excessive credit. It's now time to learn that the 7 baht bus is just as effective as a 50 baht taxi in getting you from point A to point B, and that 43 baht you save may make the difference between eating and starving.

Forget about the exchange rate. Just accept that you will be poor tomorrow and stop trying to hold on to what you have today. Anyone considering retiring to Thailand today had better be doing it because they love the country and not because they think it is low cost living. That period of history is over.

[Chunky1]

If the dollar:tbh reaches down to 1:15 it would start to be more profitable to work on contracts against Asian companies instead of American...but there is always European left, so in general, the dollar diving would not force me or anyone around me to leave...

:whistling:

[Chunky1]

Sadly many folks do not leave their visa guarantee funds in baht in the bank year round

( I do not know why not )

You don't know why flying? You? I thought of all people you would understand why. Some of us don't like receiving next to nothing by holding a worthless bunch of paper. So instead, we buy gold. Then we sell gold 3 months before the visa comes due. Rinse and repeat. That way, we at least get 9 months of positive upside potential.

Unfortunately, some people make the mistake of thinking that foreign currencies like the USD are also a better store of value than THB. I think they are wrong, but different strokes for different folks I guess.

In any case, I never expect 20. At that level of pain, at least one Asean country will break away (my bet is Vietnam) and try and race the USD to the bottom in an attempt to save their export industries. Thailand will be forced to follow suit. I can't imagine the government allowing much below 25 - 27. Beyond that they will print and accept domestic inflation instead of job loss. It is politically more acceptable. I read one study 2 years ago where they predicted exports would fall by 50% if the Baht went to 29. Probably exaggerated to some degree, but it is obvious that when prices rise people in the US will learn to do without, and that will affect Thailand greatly.

However you look at it, the answer is that we all need to learn to live on alot less. Does it really matter to people on a fixed income in USD whether their income in Baht terms gets cut in half, or their expenses in Baht terms double?

The fact is, the credit bubble has popped, and we all need to accept that poverty will be the new norm for the forseeable future. The wealth that we thought we had for the last several decades was never real. It was an illusion caused by excessive credit. It's now time to learn that the 7 baht bus is just as effective as a 50 baht taxi in getting you from point A to point B, and that 43 baht you save may make the difference between eating and starving.

Forget about the exchange rate. Just accept that you will be poor tomorrow and stop trying to hold on to what you have today. Anyone considering retiring to Thailand today had better be doing it because they love the country and not because they think it is low cost living. That period of history is over.

dunno about ur hypothesis. it goes against the precepts of sufficiency economic theory.

[Chunky1]

buy a condo to rent out. Then you are paid in baht and don't have sweat the exchange rate........much.

i really hope this was sarcasm, lol.

[Hakuchi]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

What would it cost in the USA?

[Jingthing]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

What would it cost in the USA?

As cheap as one buck per taco from a truck. Definitely under 11 bucks for three most anywhere.

http://www.examiner.com/cheap-eats-in-san-jose/one-dollar-tacos-from-a-truck

[CanInBKK]

If the US dollar falls apart you'd be better off staying in Thailand and earning a few crumbs I would have thought.

That's what I would have thought too. If the issue is a decline in the american dollar and not solely a direct appreciation of the Thai Baht, then wouldn't the baht to yen or baht to currency X (excluding USD) be relatively the same as it is now? If your source if income is in USD I don't think moving anywhere else except back to the US would help. Or is my macro econ way off?

[Hakuchi]

20 thb/$... 3 sunrise tacos would cost $11.

What would it cost in the USA?

As cheap as one buck per taco from a truck. Definitely under 11 bucks for three most anywhere.

http://www.examiner....os-from-a-truck

  Food from a truck?  Can you compare that? Is sunrise trailer park food?

   Okay, if you go for the cheapest food, for one dollar, 30 baht, you can have standard dish almost everywhere in Thailand.

  How much dollar you make if your job would be to serve tacos in the USA?

[Jingthing]

Actually, food from a truck is one of the big foodie trends in the USA now. Nothing to do with trailer parks. Duh.

http://dc.thecityfix.com/food-trucks-tasty-but-tricky/

Edited August 27, 2010 by Jingthing

[IanForbes]

You get far better value for your dollar in the Philippines. But, would you actually want to LIVE there? As I am only a seasonal visitor to Thailand it doesn't bother me too much when the baht fluctuates between 28 B to the Canadian dollar and 32 B to the Canadian dollar. Considering what I actually spend while in Thailand and what I save by BEING in Thailand, I can live with few hundred dollars extra. It all comes down to value for your money.