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ECONOMIC PUMP-PRIMINGJ: Embattled PM throws caution to the wind

Published in THE NATION on July 13, 2005

Offensive stimulus measures, more populist spending announced as govt

braces for impact of diesel float

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday unveiled an

economic-stimulus package highlighted by more populist spending

schemes. The measures represent a major political gamble apparently

aimed at arresting the slump in the prime minister's popularity and

cushioning the impact of the government's decision to end the

diesel-price subsidy yesterday.

Pay rises for state workers, new tax incentives and the direct

injection of a huge budget into villages nationwide were among the

measures that will likely shock economists, who have been advocating

austerity from the government and calling for an official signal that

all is not well in the country.

The announcement of the measures, which are sure to cheer some sections

of the public, came against a backdrop of Thaksin's lowest ever

popularity ratings and fears of a crisis in consumer and investor

confidence. Apparently, government economic advisers are afraid that

the decision to float the diesel price, if coupled with traditional

austerity measures, could wipe out confidence in the already wobbly

economy and send it spiralling into a slump.

The package announced last night was brought on by the need for the

government to address the impact of high oil prices.

The package included a 5-per-cent increase in salaries for public

officials and retiring officials. A salary increase for civil servants

was originally planned for October.

The pay increases would require about Bt20 billion in extra funds.

The prime minister said he would also allow increases in the minimum

daily wages.

Further discussion would

be needed to settle the final increases.

The measures came as opinion polls showed the government's popularity

is slipping. Many economists oppose the stimulus package and have urged

the government to focus instead on stabilising the economy. They said

measures to increase growth would end up boosting inflation and would

cause the current account deficit to widen further.

Among other measures, tax incentives would be offered to private

companies to encourage them to raise salaries for skilled workers. The

government would also extend firms a 200-per-cent tax deduction on

training costs, up from 150 per cent currently.

The government will push for higher fringe benefits for company

employees with monthly salaries of less than Bt7,000 in an effort to

boost their incomes to at least Bt7,000. The costs to employers could

be offset by claims for tax deductions of 150 per cent, up from 100 per

cent at present.

Another 500,000 elderly poor would get Bt300 each a month from the

government, in addition to the 500,000 who already receive the

payments. There are about 6 million senior citizens in the country.

Public health volunteers would also get higher incomes, up from about

Bt7,500 a month a present.

Additionally, the government would encourage businesses in rural

communities to boost the incomes of local residents.

On Friday, the government will inject Bt20 billion into rural villages

- or about Bt250,000 per village - under the SML project. Villages

would be free to manage their own funds.

In August, the government will invite major rice-exporting countries to

meet in Bangkok to form a loose cartel in a bid to boost rice prices.

Thaksin said he was hopeful the US would lift its anti-dumping measures

against Thai shrimp products, allowing the country to export more of

the products.

Towards the end of his speech, Thaksin urged Thais to buy farm produce,

such as fragrant rice and shrimp, amid a glut on local markets.

Thaksin also reiterated he would speed up government spending.

The prime minster made his speech last night at the Navy Auditorium

during a function to mark the 72nd anniversary of his alma mater,

Chiang Mai's Montfort College. The event was broadcast live on TV

Channel 9 and the airtime cost was covered by the school.

Many TV viewers appeared to be satisfied with the measures announced by

the prime minister, according to a survey by Suan Dusit Rajabhat

University.

Almost 47 per cent of a focus group comprising 144 people said they

were "rather satisfied" with the government's short-term measures

to boost the economy. About 40 per cent of focus group viewers said

they were "rather confident" that the measures announced would be

beneficial.

Wichit Chaitrong

The Nation

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Interesting: I guess I burn all my books about economic, because our lovely leader found new ways to solve all problems....

I can only recommend everyone to invest in thai baht, this gov. idea of kicking out the money as fast as possible, best for cars, mobile phones and home theaters will make everyone rich soon. If it happens that there is not enough money, simply print new, there is enough paper.......

This politic has definitly a great future.....

ECONOMIC PUMP-PRIMINGJ: Embattled PM throws caution to the wind

Published in THE NATION on July 13, 2005

Offensive stimulus measures, more populist spending announced as govt

braces for impact of diesel float

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday unveiled an

economic-stimulus package highlighted by more populist spending

schemes. The measures represent a major political gamble apparently

aimed at arresting the slump in the prime minister's popularity and

cushioning the impact of the government's decision to end the

diesel-price subsidy yesterday.

Pay rises for state workers, new tax incentives and the direct

injection of a huge budget into villages nationwide were among the

measures that will likely shock economists, who have been advocating

austerity from the government and calling for an official signal that

all is not well in the country.

The announcement of the measures, which are sure to cheer some sections

of the public, came against a backdrop of Thaksin's lowest ever

popularity ratings and fears of a crisis in consumer and investor

confidence. Apparently, government economic advisers are afraid that

the decision to float the diesel price, if coupled with traditional

austerity measures, could wipe out confidence in the already wobbly

economy and send it spiralling into a slump.

The package announced last night was brought on by the need for the

government to address the impact of high oil prices.

The package included a 5-per-cent increase in salaries for public

officials and retiring officials. A salary increase for civil servants

was originally planned for October.

The pay increases would require about Bt20 billion in extra funds.

The prime minister said he would also allow increases in the minimum

daily wages.

Further discussion would

be needed to settle the final increases.

The measures came as opinion polls showed the government's popularity

is slipping. Many economists oppose the stimulus package and have urged

the government to focus instead on stabilising the economy. They said

measures to increase growth would end up boosting inflation and would

cause the current account deficit to widen further.

Among other measures, tax incentives would be offered to private

companies to encourage them to raise salaries for skilled workers. The

government would also extend firms a 200-per-cent tax deduction on

training costs, up from 150 per cent currently.

The government will push for higher fringe benefits for company

employees with monthly salaries of less than Bt7,000 in an effort to

boost their incomes to at least Bt7,000. The costs to employers could

be offset by claims for tax deductions of 150 per cent, up from 100 per

cent at present.

Another 500,000 elderly poor would get Bt300 each a month from the

government, in addition to the 500,000 who already receive the

payments. There are about 6 million senior citizens in the country.

Public health volunteers would also get higher incomes, up from about

Bt7,500 a month a present.

Additionally, the government would encourage businesses in rural

communities to boost the incomes of local residents.

On Friday, the government will inject Bt20 billion into rural villages

- or about Bt250,000 per village - under the SML project. Villages

would be free to manage their own funds.

In August, the government will invite major rice-exporting countries to

meet in Bangkok to form a loose cartel in a bid to boost rice prices.

Thaksin said he was hopeful the US would lift its anti-dumping measures

against Thai shrimp products, allowing the country to export more of

the products.

Towards the end of his speech, Thaksin urged Thais to buy farm produce,

such as fragrant rice and shrimp, amid a glut on local markets.

Thaksin also reiterated he would speed up government spending.

The prime minster made his speech last night at the Navy Auditorium

during a function to mark the 72nd anniversary of his alma mater,

Chiang Mai's Montfort College. The event was broadcast live on TV

Channel 9 and the airtime cost was covered by the school.

Many TV viewers appeared to be satisfied with the measures announced by

the prime minister, according to a survey by Suan Dusit Rajabhat

University.

Almost 47 per cent of a focus group comprising 144 people said they

were "rather satisfied" with the government's short-term measures

to boost the economy. About 40 per cent of focus group viewers said

they were "rather confident" that the measures announced would be

beneficial.

Wichit Chaitrong

The Nation

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I can only recommend everyone to invest in thai baht,

Ha Ha - perhaps you should point out that you're joking. The Baht will go down the toilet.

These policies are highly inflationary, and unless more money is printed I don't see how he can pay for all this, as I can't see that these 'giveaways' will stimulate the economy

However, if you currently have Baht liabilities (eg Bank loans) you would be happy.

A wheelbarrow of baht to buy a beer anyone?

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All these steps will only boost internal activity, causing inflation and will not assist export, nor will they reduce the need for imports.

some steps which might assist trade deficit -

- give incentives to convert to alternative energy resources in vehicles or other oil-dependent industries -> lower oil consumption, lower oil import

- improve agriculture and enviornmental standards, food control -> higher export of agricultural goods.

- train manufacturers in targeted export and international trade courses

- give grants and tax incentives for export-related investments. Not just throw money at remote villages (!!?)

- change laws to make thailand more friendly to foriegn investors and less paranoid -> more foreign currency flowing in

- do not raise salaries in public sector (!!?) Instead, perform cuts and revisions in the public sector to make it thinner and more efficient

Edited by ~G~
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I remember I think it was italian lira or turkish money. You had these hugh amounts to handle. 1 beer= 1000000 or something like that (maybe I am a bit over....)

Our lovely leader has already the solution, in his next speech, he'll tell that every foreigner who invest at least 100.000 THB will get 1 pack of paracetamol from gov for free, to fight against the headache this investment will cause him, soon.

The next step will be that every major city will get its own money printing machine, so they can improve spending.

I thought already to get a 3 mill bank loan, exchange it to Euro and exchange it back in a couple of month, pay back the loan and sack in the profit. But I am afraid about it.......

Any comments on this idea, are welcome

I can only recommend everyone to invest in thai baht,

Ha Ha - perhaps you should point out that you're joking. The Baht will go down the toilet.

These policies are highly inflationary, and unless more money is printed I don't see how he can pay for all this, as I can't see that these 'giveaways' will stimulate the economy

However, if you currently have Baht liabilities (eg Bank loans) you would be happy.

A wheelbarrow of baht to buy a beer anyone?

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I thought already to get a 3 mill bank loan, exchange it to Euro and exchange it back in a couple of month, pay back the loan and sack in the profit. But I am afraid about it.......

Any comments on this idea, are welcome

Don't play with money you don't have... the Euro might dive faster than the baht, or another unexpected thing might happen, where will you be then?

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I thought already to get a 3 mill bank loan, exchange it to Euro and exchange it back in a couple of month, pay back the loan and sack in the profit. But I am afraid about it.......

Any comments on this idea, are welcome

Don't play with money you don't have... the Euro might dive faster than the baht, or another unexpected thing might happen, where will you be then?

Just run that idea by a Thai bank representative, Mr. h90 and then while he or she is in shock at the absolute brilliance of your scheme, open the vault and just take out 3 billion (not million) Euros and bypass the intermediate steps of your plan!

As a token of your supremacy you could just pay off the 3 million euro loan that you never took -- and impress the living daylights out of the rep.

Then give me half for making your job considerably easier. :o

Tip the doorman/security guard 100,000 Baht on your way out!

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than I'll be in a different country :o

I thought already to get a 3 mill bank loan, exchange it to Euro and exchange it back in a couple of month, pay back the loan and sack in the profit. But I am afraid about it.......

Any comments on this idea, are welcome

Don't play with money you don't have... the Euro might dive faster than the baht, or another unexpected thing might happen, where will you be then?

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Fascinating strategy, increase spending in line with oil price rise.

Should do wonders for Thailand's current account deficit and inflation. Is this expenditure included in the current budget or an over and above item I wonder ?

Industry and Transport seem to be doing lots of subsidizing (at the insistence of Govt ie. price control) to keep costs down which is another problem in the making.

Someone has to pay there's no such thing as 'free' money (unless, as speculated by some, you just print more ).

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Fascinating strategy, increase spending in line with oil price rise.

Should do wonders for Thailand's current account deficit and inflation.  Is this expenditure included in the current budget or an over and above item I wonder ?

Industry and Transport seem to be doing lots of subsidizing (at the insistence of Govt ie. price control) to keep costs down which is another problem in the making.

Someone has to pay there's no such thing as 'free' money (unless, as speculated by some, you just print more ).

Why not put the nation in debt which will need to be paid after you are no longer PM? This is free money - someone else will be responsible for paying it. Then you can blame it all on the new guy.

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The scary thing is that you have to wonder who is advising him. Probably a bunch of the most sycophantic bunch of %%£" brown-nosers ever.

Based upon his earlier comment (actually his refusal to comment - until Mercury was in proper alignment). It appears at least one of his advisers is an astrologist. :o

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The scary thing is that you have to wonder who is advising him. Probably a bunch of the most sycophantic bunch of %%£" brown-nosers ever.

Exactly. Reminds me of the scheme where everyone in the 3 southern provinces had to register their mobile phones to stop bombs being detonated. Anyone not registering within xxx would have their signal shut down.

Then literally weeks after the registrations were begun, it quietly transpires that it is not possible to shut down the signals for just the 3 southernmost provinces, in fact you would have to shut down as far north as Chumphon too. i.e. the scheme was a non-starter, but of course the Minister (Chaisaeng) who thought it up had no idea on the technical side of it. What gets me is how for weeks apparently NOBODY piped up to say "well I'm afraid Mr Minister...."

There must be plenty of people close to Thaksin fully aware of how clueless what he is doing really is, but they simply don't dare (or don't think it's worth their while) to tell him...

Edited by charles
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Deaths due to Mr. T stand at ..... ? 100, 150 .... ?

Deaths due to Tony Blair, the undisputed liar of the century and his boss and eternal commander, Uncle George ...... hundreds and hundreds of thousands or have I not even scratched the surface?

How many errant missiles took out how many Red Cross centres, hospitals, senior citizen gatherings, homes, schools etc., etc., ?

And Lord, if these 2 tyrants cannot control crude oil prices, how can Mr. T do so?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression? Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless. Nobody is to blame! Please Lord!

Lord, I know you have plans for them after they drop their current bodies, to wake up sucking on a t*t somewhere in Nomansland, screaming for some sweeter milk -- but I have a better solution ....

Put these english teachers in the same room as Mr. T for just 5 minutes so I can have a good look at them side by side! A black background would enhance the contrast even further.

Grant me that request, Lord! :o

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And Lord, if these 2 tyrants cannot control crude oil prices, how can Mr. T do so?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?  Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

Surely he cannot control oil prices; however he can take measures to minimize (as far as possible) oil consumption in Thailand instead of subsidizing it with money he doesn't have.

Not a small or short-term undertaking - and not as easy as throwing money here and there.

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Deaths due to Mr. T stand at .....  ?  100, 150 .... ?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?  Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

One of the reasons that the great depression was so bad was the government refused to provide liquidity to the banking system when it was desperately needed (ie just around the time of the stockmarket going south). It led to queues at banks as people tried to access their funds, less confidence in the economy. It was a continual downward spiral. The depression was also characterised by massive deflation, not inflation, as is happening in Thailand now.

There can be much done in the Thai economy at the moment to improve it, without having to resort to inflationary measures which Dear Leader is doing. For about the past 5 years, there has been litteraly trillions of dollars sloshing about on the world financial markets looking for a decent home.

If Thaskin was the visionary, strong leader that he likes to sell himself as, he would have been working on microeconomic reform since the was elected in 2000. He would have been busy deregulating the telecommunications sector to make communication cheaper, rather than making it his own little playground for himself and a few selected mates.

He would have gotten rid of infrastucture bottlenecks in roads, ports and highways, making Thailand a competitve gateway into Indo-china and southern china.

He would have spent the past 5 years strengthening Thai corporate governance, and not do his level best to undermine it.

If he even had done a couple of those things, business, and as a consequence, employees, would be in a more robust position to take on these oil price rises.

But the PM hasn't, and people arent able to bear the strain.

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And Lord, if these 2 tyrants cannot control crude oil prices, how can Mr. T do so?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?   Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

Surely he cannot control oil prices; however he can take measures to minimize (as far as possible) oil consumption in Thailand instead of subsidizing it with money he doesn't have.

Not a small or short-term undertaking - and not as easy as throwing money here and there.

How would he do this, G? I mean, what methods does he have available realistically to accomplish this?

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Economics 101. More money hunting same volume of goods = inflation. Wonder how it will impact our cost of living here? Electricity prices must be one of the first to increase? Followed by everything else...?

Cheers!

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Deaths due to Mr. T stand at .....  ?  100, 150 .... ?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?   Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

One of the reasons that the great depression was so bad was the government refused to provide liquidity to the banking system when it was desperately needed (ie just around the time of the stockmarket going south). It led to queues at banks as people tried to access their funds, less confidence in the economy. It was a continual downward spiral. The depression was also characterised by massive deflation, not inflation, as is happening in Thailand now.

There can be much done in the Thai economy at the moment to improve it, without having to resort to inflationary measures which Dear Leader is doing. For about the past 5 years, there has been litteraly trillions of dollars sloshing about on the world financial markets looking for a decent home.

If Thaskin was the visionary, strong leader that he likes to sell himself as, he would have been working on microeconomic reform since the was elected in 2000. He would have been busy deregulating the telecommunications sector to make communication cheaper, rather than making it his own little playground for himself and a few selected mates.

He would have gotten rid of infrastucture bottlenecks in roads, ports and highways, making Thailand a competitve gateway into Indo-china and southern china.

He would have spent the past 5 years strengthening Thai corporate governance, and not do his level best to undermine it.

If he even had done a couple of those things, business, and as a consequence, employees, would be in a more robust position to take on these oil price rises.

But the PM hasn't, and people arent able to bear the strain.

That's an excellent post, samran.

I am however looking at the situation from a different perspective.

Let me explain ...

The Great Depression started and really came into effect in a noticeable way AFTER the stock market crash completed in 1932.

Liquidity or no liquidity I don't believe that would have made an iota of difference to halting it.

In the current situation in America for example, the scene is awash with liquidity and one could as an observer easily ask; then why the heck are we just prodding along?"

14 rate cuts and is that the best we can do economywise? Nasdaq still off by some 60%? Markets gyrating wildly! This is NOT a bullmarket scenario -- it is certainly not the way you would expect a rocket to take off given the overabundance of high powered fuel -- the current scene is pathetic!

So what am I getiing at then w.r.t. Mr. T and Thailand?

I am stating very simply that the circumstances are beyond his control and that all kinds of sh*t are going to go down and that he will be and is powerless to halt the onslaught. And here is what I'm adding in his defense -- no single leader could thwart the fury of what is to come! No man can. Furthermore no collection of men could do it either! The winds of change are at hand and the topography will BE altered, period!

It is a question of CYCLES and Mass Social Mood . When the trend in social mood changes to negative, structural cracks, anaomalies and all manner of problems, that were not-ised or overlooked in the previous bullmarket, show up in force.

The same is happening in America and Europe. It is happening in Thailand and other nations too.

We are at a historic turn in the economy -- that is why things appear to be going in slow-motion. The market has been going up for 100+ years and the current arc of rolling over has been spread over a 6+ year period. It is monumental. But in due course the momentum downwards will accelerate and you will see more of the same stuff you've been complaining about.

Alan Greenspan will become the most despised person in history. Shame, because I like him. :o

Therefore whatever Mr. T does or doesn't do, it will NOT stop the onslaught of NATURE's fury!

I have written this quite fast and it may lack coherence. I can try again at a later date.

I am tired and am goin to call it a day. OK

I liked your response very much -- good observations.

Good night! :D

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And Lord, if these 2 tyrants cannot control crude oil prices, how can Mr. T do so?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?   Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

Surely he cannot control oil prices; however he can take measures to minimize (as far as possible) oil consumption in Thailand instead of subsidizing it with money he doesn't have.

Not a small or short-term undertaking - and not as easy as throwing money here and there.

How would he do this, G? I mean, what methods does he have available realistically to accomplish this?

Short term (weeks and months) - not much. Mainly:

- In governmental bodies - locate biggest energy spenders and see which of this energy can be saved - don't use it if you don't have to! (instead of increasing their salaries, have "Energy saving officers", engineers whos sole job description will be to analyze, spot and reduce energy spending - on second thought this suggestion might better be posted in the Jokes forum). Seriously now - in such a large system has to be countless of inefficent places - improve the efficiency.

- Installing enery saving devices (and... if you are interested in more info about these I will be happy to provide some in PM - 25% saving of light energy, over 10% of other electrical energy - this one is serious).

- further encouraging usage of public transport

- tax air-conditioners (this one is only half serious :D )

Long term (1,2,5, 10 years range):

- Establish alternative energy sources (wind turbines, solar panels, water driven turbines) - imaginary? not when oil prices, and USD, are very high! :o Cannot be done in a 3rd world country? Study Sri Lanka - they have only one big river, "Mahaweli" - which supplies a very significant amount of the electricity there.

- Improving public transport facilities - more trains and less private cars, busses and trucks.

- Build required facilities and encourage conversion from oil to gas based vehicles.

Edited by ~G~
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It is a question of CYCLES and Mass Social Mood .  When the trend in social mood changes to negative, structural cracks, anaomalies and all manner of problems, that were  not-ised or overlooked in the previous bullmarket, show up in force.

International depression will spare nobody, but some countries will be more affected than others - the dependency on foreign resources and foreign capital needs to be addressed. When those factors are minimized, the effects of an interntional crisis will be minimized as well.

Edited by ~G~
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Isolation does not only help in cold countries.

Alone real closed windows would help to keep the cool inside and safes money on the aircon.

And Lord, if these 2 tyrants cannot control crude oil prices, how can Mr. T do so?

Furthermore Lord, remember how the US govt. could do absolutely zip in the face of the Great Depression?  Can you teach these unfortunates that when the tide changes it spares nobody and is just plain relentless.  Nobody is to blame!  Please Lord!

Surely he cannot control oil prices; however he can take measures to minimize (as far as possible) oil consumption in Thailand instead of subsidizing it with money he doesn't have.

Not a small or short-term undertaking - and not as easy as throwing money here and there.

How would he do this, G? I mean, what methods does he have available realistically to accomplish this?

Short term (weeks and months) - not much. Mainly:

- In governmental bodies - locate biggest energy spenders and see which of this energy can be saved - don't use it if you don't have to! (instead of increasing their salaries, have "Energy saving officers", engineers whos sole job description will be to analyze, spot and reduce energy spending - on second thought this suggestion might better be posted in the Jokes forum). Seriously now - in such a large system has to be countless of inefficent places - improve the efficiency.

- Installing enery saving devices (and... if you are interested in more info about these I will be happy to provide some in PM - 25% saving of light energy, over 10% of other electrical energy - this one is serious).

- further encouraging usage of public transport

- tax air-conditioners (this one is only half serious :D )

Long term (1,2,5, 10 years range):

- Establish alternative energy sources (wind turbines, solar panels, water driven turbines) - imaginary? not when oil prices, and USD, are very high! :o Cannot be done in a 3rd world country? Study Sri Lanka - they have only one big river, "Mahaweli" - which supplies a very significant amount of the electricity there.

- Improving public transport facilities - more trains and less private cars, busses and trucks.

- Build required facilities and encourage conversion from oil to gas based vehicles.

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