La Nina To Cause Record Drop In Temperature In Thailand

[trogers]

If something could lower the temperature a couple of degrees that'd be perfect.

Unless you happen to be a peasant in rural northern Thailand, where winter temperatures drop low enough to kill people who don't have the means to keep themselves warm.

It may not be an issue for Western scuba divers, certainly.

People die when the temperature drops to 18-20 degrees...?

I might be wrong but I thought we were talking centigrade and not fahrenheit...?

In Pattaya about 7 years ago, a Thai man died of hypothermia overnight - the temp was 22 degs C

Can happen if body was wet and there was strong breeze.

[grahamhc]

What is it with the 'na Ayutthaya' clan and weather/natural phenomena? Only a few weeks ago, we saw Dr Ajong Chumsai na Ayutthaya,saying that the Gulf of Thailand would be hit by tsunamis and that Bangkok would be under water in less than seven years.

Certainly, many forecasters have predicted a very cold winter again in Europe because of La Nina, so it's plausible Thailand will feel similar effects.

In one year, we will have had a heatwave, a drought, floods and serious cold. It's called weather.

Maybe they are trying to get funding for next year's research, and extend their employment contracts. That is nore likely the reason !!

[sunanta]

I'll try just once more.

You have said that you can't see the issue about a 2C drop in temperatures in Thailand.

Here is the issue. Provinces which will be affected include Tak, Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Loei, Udon Thani, Nong Khai and Sakon Nakhon.

These are some of the coldest and poorest provinces in Thailand. A 2C drop in temperature will cause great hardship to peasants in those areas, and will heighten the risk of death by hypothermia, especially among the old, sick and very young.OK DONT BURN THE LEFTOVER RICE PLANTS NOW THEN, WAIT TILL THE TEMP DROPS

I don't think that this drop in temperatures would be 'perfect', as you put it.

[richards]

Have I suggested banning anything? How does one ban cold weather?

You said that you "struggle to see the issue here." and then suggested that people will not die because temperatures in Thailand do not go below 18-20C.

I have informed you that temperatures go down to 2C and that people do die. That is the issue. Do you think that all those Thai charities which distribute blankets in rural areas are simply wasting their time?

And I have not called you "an ignorant farang who cares only about the scubadiving.", because I do not know whether you are a farang or whether you care about scubadiving.

Oh dear, its a worry. I live in Loei with my Thai wife. I hope it stays warm here until January at least, as we are going camping & scuba diving in the UK . I understand the North sea can be a little cloudy that time of year. Better take a blanket to be safe.

[Indo-Siam]

I'll try just once more.

You have said that you can't see the issue about a 2C drop in temperatures in Thailand.

Here is the issue. Provinces which will be affected include Tak, Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phayao, Nan, Loei, Udon Thani, Nong Khai and Sakon Nakhon.

These are some of the coldest and poorest provinces in Thailand. A 2C drop in temperature will cause great hardship to peasants in those areas, and will heighten the risk of death by hypothermia, especially among the old, sick and very young.

I don't think that this drop in temperatures would be 'perfect', as you put it.

During most of the history of mankind, large populations of people lived quite well in places of the world much colder than Thailand has ever been. If I recall correctly, the traditional northern Thai textiles from long ago had stylized snowflakes as a recurring theme, recalling their ancestral past migrations from snowy China. Over the past 1,000 years in what is now Thailand, there have repeatedly been seasonal cold spells. Thailand's population has steadily increased throughout all these cold spell periods. During record cold snaps in living memory within Thailand, there have always been a few people who die - but if fatalities ever reached 0.005% above "background" deaths within the population, I would be amazed.

Who dies are the stone drunks, the passed out glue-sniffers, the people who were already dying of illness, and perhaps the other odd individual.

Please give Thais some credit for intelligence and robustness - and the ability to warm themselves with fires, and with blankets. Your comments suggest that you think Thais are far below most indigenous inhabitants of places like Australia in their ability to deal with their environment.

I think of all the soi dogs in Bangkok - as well as in Mukdahan - that I have seen over the years, wearing sweaters. If the Thais can put sweaters on soi dogs at 21 degrees, I think their up-country kinfolks can keep one another from freezing to death.

Cheers!

IS

[RickBradford]

Your comments suggest that you think Thais are far below most indigenous inhabitants of places like Australia in their ability to deal with their environment.

What makes you think that Australian aborigines survived cold weather without suffering casualties?

In January 2009, a cold snap caused the Thai government to declare an emergency zone across more than half of the country, with special extra budgets to provide blankets and warm clothing. Several people died as a result of the cold, and some areas were designated as "cold-spell disaster zones."

Clearly, the cold weather does impact the citizens in those areas, and if the recent forecast is correct, the impact this year will be more severe than usual.

[Beetlejuice]

Two degrees will not even be noticed. People die of the cold only because they forget to put clothes on and sleep in side. The coldest it ever gets is to allow frost at night. Unless you are in the mountains you will not even notice the difference.

Where do all these people walk about naked and sleep outside?

Sounds great, I`ll have some of that. Global warming does have it`s benefits.

[johnlk]

The only blessing is that it MAY shut the Global Warming fanatics up for a bit - though I'm sure that they will soon find some other dire phenomena that will require vast amounts of taxpayers money to "research" into!

Absolutely.

I'm still wondering whatever happened with the ozone layer, which was the last big "global concern".

I don't wear the T-shirt anymore, but I am still in the habit of closing the fridge door quickly behind me

[Indo-Siam]

RickB - Please investigate and tell me how many Buddhist monks died at wats in the cold spell disaster zones of Thailand in 2009. I do not know the answer, but I do not recall hearing of any. There are wats in every tambon in Thailand. The monks are not overdressed, and they range all the way up in age. Their dormitories are not specially insulated, as far as I know. If they can routinely deal with the unremarkable fluctuations in seasonal winter temperatures, then those temperatures cannot be that devastating.

Yes - infant mortality still exists. So does mortality of old people. Infants and old people die every week in Thailand - and everywhere else in the world. If they happen to die during a cold spell, or a hot spell, or a dry spell, or a wet spell - or during a SARS flu outbreak - then whatever activist group is invested in that cause immediately assigns certain causality to the death.

I do not have death statistics for Thailand, broken down into seasons, and locations. I do not know how much variation there is in deaths from year to year, or in temperatures from year to year. I have been in Thailand for the last 13 Decembers - and I can tell you from personal experience that the lowest low temperatures in Bangkok during those 13 years varied by at least 5 degrees C, from lowest year to highest year. I would presume that in most consecutive years, the lowest low temperature recorded anywhere in Thailand would vary between the years - By one degree? By two degrees? I don't know. But - I'm almost certain that they never duplicate closely.

Is two degrees a calamity? Two degrees from what? From 2009? From 2005? From 1950?

Human beings are the most adaptable vertebrates that exist anywhere - and everywhere. The absolute hallmark of human kind is its adaptability. It is just absurd to say that a 2 degree lowering of the low temperature from year to year is a tremendous calamity. Will it affect delicate life at the extreme edges of a survival range - yes it will. Are human beings - as a species - delicate life? You appear to think so.

Go find the oldest centenarian in northern Thailand, and ask him or her tell their best "war story" about some cold winter - and then ask them if they fear the upcoming winter - which might be two degrees colder than 2009. Let me know what they say. If they say that 2009 was the worst they'd seen - and they collapse into a quivering puddle at the thought of 2010 being two degrees colder - the I guess you will be vindicated.

I will tell you what is dangerous cold in northern Thailand: It rains, and gets to 15 degrees C - and you are soaking wet, and you are riding on a motorcycle, or even in an open tuk-tuk, at about 50 km/hr. That will chill you down to the point of hypothermia. So natural selection rules. Idiots are removed the gene pool regularly.

Cheers!

IS

[Phatcharanan]

Global cooling..............love it!

[padeakin]

If something could lower the temperature a couple of degrees that'd be perfect.

Unless you happen to be a peasant in rural northern Thailand, where winter temperatures drop low enough to kill people who don't have the means to keep themselves warm.

It may not be an issue for Western scuba divers, certainly.

People die when the temperature drops to 18-20 degrees...?

I might be wrong but I thought we were talking centigrade and not fahrenheit...?

In Pattaya about 7 years ago, a Thai man died of hypothermia overnight - the temp was 22 degs C

I saw homeless people sleeping outside when temperatures dropped to -15 Celcius last year in the UK. They did not die! they knew to use more layers of insulation.

I suspect that if someone died because of hypothermia in Thailand it was probably alcohol related. Or they were very old.

[Samuian]

However - here on Samui the Monsoons Seson has set in early and with fulll might, nights are pretty chilli for the tropics, Ko Chang is facing heavy mudslides and flooding all over North and North east.... now keep telling...

[RickBradford]

Indo-Siam,

I don't disagree with most of what you say in your post. I don't foresee people keeling over in the streets if things get a bit cooler.

But I do take exception when you accuse me of dissing the Thais by suggesting that they cannot survive cold weather where other more "robust" and "intelligent" (your words) races can. I did not say that, nor did I imply it. And that is because I do not believe it to be true.

Even people in England die in cold snaps, and they are far better equipped to deal with the cold than a hill-tribe in northern Thailand.

I am simply saying that if the 2009 cold snap caused over half the country to be declared an emergency zone, then things are liable to be worse this time around if this forecast turns out to be true.

[DickFarang]

This is probably what has spooked weather forecasters around the world -- it's a graph of the cycles of El Nino (red), La Nina (blue).

The latest La Nina (at the far right) is estimated to be the steepest and potentially the deepest since 1955/6

This is also a good descriptor of temperatures over the last 60 years -- 1950-1975 was cold enough to have people fretting about a new ice age; 1975-2000 was hot (all that El Nino red, culminating in the record heat of 1998), and the picture since 2000 is mixed. Many scientists think we're in for another La Nina-dominated cold spell, which could have serious effects on agriculture.

The graph seems to confirm my personal impression that in the 50ies and 60ies winters were a lot colder.

[jombom]

This research is not really very new. The news has been around for several months.

http://www.iceagenow.com/Triple_Crown_of_global_cooling.htm

The people of Iceland, are fairly certain Katla will erupt in the near future --- possibly within 2 years.

[zthyadat]

I struggle to see the issue here...

For years the seas have been warmed up above a critical point where the corals begin to die. The gulf of Thailand is warmer than ever. If something could lower the temperature a couple of degrees that'd be perfect.

I don't think anyone is too worried, except maybe the people in Loei, Nan and other northern provinces who tend to freeze to death during these phases. For those of us in Bangkok, Pattaya and further south it will be a godsend. But regarding the corals, it will be a brief reprieve, according to that chart - these cool spells are always followed by a spiking increase in temperatures...

[Indo-Siam]

Here is Thailand surface temperature data for 1971 through 2000 - I don't know why they publish no data after 2000:

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/archive/surfacetemperature.php

It was interesting to me that the mean (= average) minimum winter temperatures in the North varied from year to year up to 13 degrees C, during that 30-year period. Clearly, they are accustomed to temperatures varying greatly from year to year.

The absolute temperature minimums in the north are quite chilly - and at those absolute minimums, life would be threatened for someone not prepared - by dress or warming fires - to protect themselves.

Cheers!

IS

[meelousee]

Go Ahead and laugh make jokes. There are some Islanders that will argue with you. The worlds oceans have only risen by centimeters but those Islanders have lost 4000 hectors of beach fronts, small amount to the rise but the wave actions have taken 10 times more and they continue to lose every year. A bad storm takes 10 hectors on each event.

When they close the MRT due to flooding then you can have your last laugh. It wont be this year but it will happen. Bangkok is sinking and has been for eons. An example is that you pick the location and just 7 to 30 meters down is liquefied clay and it is moving. I used the train for 5 years from Lad krabang to Klongton station I saw the start and finish of the airport sky train. On one occasion I spoke with a Korean engineer and ask why they put 4 pylons with reinforced steel in each main pylon location and then demolished them.

He said "we build a cup to hold the tea" Why? " Bangkok is sinking and we want to keep the main pylons from failing"

So now you can laugh, and then you can ask Ital Thai they might even tell you.

You may thing this off topic but I will tell you that a temperature drop in Northern Thailand is a ear mark for climate change. And more floods and weather events will only accelerate what I have said above.

Keep laughing climate change is not funny

Edited October 12, 2010 by meelousee

[RickBradford]

I should have scaled these better, but it's noticeable that lots of blue (La Nina-dominated) coincides with cooling, and lots of red (El Nino-dominated) with warming.

The stand-out year on both charts is 1998 - phew, wotta scorcher....

[pgangeles]

The only blessing is that it MAY shut the Global Warming fanatics up for a bit - though I'm sure that they will soon find some other dire phenomena that will require vast amounts of taxpayers money to "research" into!

A better and more accurate description would be Global Change. As for "fanatics", I suggest people should accept it because it's reallity.

[teatree]

Go Ahead and laugh make jokes. There are some Islanders that will argue with you. The worlds oceans have only risen by centimeters but those Islanders have lost 4000 hectors of beach fronts, small amount to the rise but the wave actions have taken 10 times more and they continue to lose every year. A bad storm takes 10 hectors on each event.

When they close the MRT due to flooding then you can have your last laugh. It wont be this year but it will happen. Bangkok is sinking and has been for eons. An example is that you pick the location and just 7 to 30 meters down is liquefied clay and it is moving. I used the train for 5 years from Lad krabang to Klongton station I saw the start and finish of the airport sky train. On one occasion I spoke with a Korean engineer and ask why they put 4 pylons with reinforced steel in each main pylon location and then demolished them.

He said "we build a cup to hold the tea" Why? " Bangkok is sinking and we want to keep the main pylons from failing"

So now you can laugh, and then you can ask Ital Thai they might even tell you.

You may thing this off topic but I will tell you that a temperature drop in Northern Thailand is a ear mark for climate change. And more floods and weather events will only accelerate what I have said above.

Keep laughing climate change is not funny

What has the fact that Bangkok is sinking got to do with global warming/cooling/climate change/disruption?

[rogerman]

If something could lower the temperature a couple of degrees that'd be perfect.

Unless you happen to be a peasant in rural northern Thailand, where winter temperatures drop low enough to kill people who don't have the means to keep themselves warm.

It may not be an issue for Western scuba divers, certainly.

People die when the temperature drops to 18-20 degrees...?

I might be wrong but I thought we were talking centigrade and not fahrenheit...?

With my previous working experience with a humanitarian workgroup i have actually seen people dying of cold and it was 16 degrees...... I come from a cold country myself (NOT England) and  I was quite happy temperature wise then, but now i'd certainly feel it as i have been working outside all day everyday for 5 years now

[foxteen]

It won't affect expats...they got good resistance:jap: and they can live under water too

[tonglen]

Good news and good news.

Cooler temps and an earlier wet season for the crops.

[souvenirdeparis]

how does " to each one his own cross " translate in Pali Buddhism ?

[souvenirdeparis]

If something could lower the temperature a couple of degrees that'd be perfect.

Unless you happen to be a peasant in rural northern Thailand, where winter temperatures drop low enough to kill people who don't have the means to keep themselves warm.

It may not be an issue for Western scuba divers, certainly.

People die when the temperature drops to 18-20 degrees...?

I might be wrong but I thought we were talking centigrade and not fahrenheit...?

With my previous working experience with a humanitarian workgroup i have actually seen people dying of cold and it was 16 degrees...... I come from a cold country myself (NOT England) and  I was quite happy temperature wise then, but now i'd certainly feel it as i have been working outside all day everyday for 5 years now

it will be real hard for the Lahu and Lisu and Northern Thaï farmers ; their shacks got no insulation at all , theit kids might be in the open air , they have no money for warm clothes or blankets .

[jboras]

What! 20 degrees! Better cut some wood for the fireplace:lol:

Love it when it drops to 20 and they are all wrapped up! In front of a fire!

[Gers1873]

The study was based in Chiang Khan district in Loei province because it had experienced record low temperatures in two nine-year cycles: 20 degrees for 18 weeks from 1975-1984, and 21 degrees for 20 weeks from 1995-2004.

So it happened in two 9 year cycles ergo it must happen again. Either crap reporting or very bad science. Prepare for a heatwave

[Hardie]

The hill tribe areas are like another world, and sitting in front of a fire all night is the best that many can hope for to stay warm... and alive. They're not racially inferior, but they live in a culture of poverty that it's hard to emerge from, especially when they have no papers or rights. The ones who do, manage to blend seamlessly into Northern society. They need all the help they can get.

[asiawatcher]

I don't know but the temperatures are up and down in cyclical fashion and I see no real evidence of global warming and have read thousands of articles to the contrary and am inclined to believe it.