Kamala Harris: Balancing Loyalty and Change in Her Bid for the Presidency

[jaideeguy]

As the title suggests.......[in your opinion] which currencies will depreciate least or appreciate against the $$ most in these wild and crazy times for the short term and long term. The THB is strong now, but I can't see it being strong for the long term.

Your opinions appreciated and I will not hold you liable if you're wrong.

Edited October 20, 2010 by jaideeguy

[churchill]

This might help

The Big Mac index

http://www.economist.com/node/17257797?story_id=17257797&fsrc=rss

[britmaveric]

Hold pat would be your best course of action.... yank dollar will only get better.

[jaideeguy]

Hold pat would be your best course of action.... yank dollar will only get better.

Hold pat?? How much longer can the dollar stretch??

Interesting read on the 'big mac' churchill, but please explain in simple terms what that really means.........buy Swiss francs or Chineese yuan??

my mind is $pinning every time I look at the $/THB rates and wondering if and when I should ca$h out.

[britmaveric]

Those who panic always lose their shirts so to speak....

[churchill]

I am no expert

'Interesting read on the 'big mac' churchill, but please explain in simple terms what that really means.........buy Swiss francs or Chineese yuan??'

but I feel buying Gold is a good hedge - and living in Thailand buy THB /

[asiawatcher]

My bet is Yuan and gold. I think both are liquid and gold is still undervalued (in my opinion) around 40%. USD is not stable and with the country deficit around 19 trillion and GDP around 65% of that, it can only go further down the toilet. My opinion for what it is worth.

Edited October 20, 2010 by asiawatcher

[cloudhopper]

but I feel buying Gold is a good hedge - and living in Thailand buy THB /

That's exactly what I've been doing. THB is what it takes around here.

[chiang mai]

Singapore Dollars.

[Naam]

My bet is Yuan and gold. I think both are liquid and gold is still undervalued (in my opinion) around 40%. USD is not stable and with the country deficit around 19 trillion and GDP around 65% of that, it can only go further down the toilet. My opinion for what it is worth.

the chinese currency doesn't care what you or me think. except for non-deliverable-forwards and some peanuts amount you can hold in certain Hong Kong banks CNY is extremely illiquid.

[craigt3365]

Those who panic always lose their shirts so to speak....

For sure. Currency trading is a fine art. I would love to participate, but feel I would lose my shirt. As my friend has who made a play not long ago and is now looking at a huge margin call....and he use to be the head of finance for a large oil company!!!

[chiang mai]

Those who panic always lose their shirts so to speak....

For sure. Currency trading is a fine art. I would love to participate, but feel I would lose my shirt. As my friend has who made a play not long ago and is now looking at a huge margin call....and he use to be the head of finance for a large oil company!!!

And often, even those who remain calm also lose their shirts, sometimes by doing nothing more sinister than holding a position for too long, as in the case of USD for example, BTW, nice vest Brit. But of course if we wait long enough then all prophesies will come true, eventually.

[maxman71]

I note that prior to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, in which the actions of a certain Thai banker played a major role in the cause of that crisis, the THB was trading in a band roughly between 22-28 THB/USD. When the crisis occurred, the THB/USD trading hit a peak of about 55 THB/1 USD. Now that the "crisis shoe" is on the foot of the US, and the Thai banking system runs much more conservatively than the US system, Thailand's solid manufacturing base and other sectors, I see the USD/THB exchange rate trending back to the pre-1997 crisis levels. The US Fed Reserve has made it clear it will print as much $$ (they don't actually print it; it is created digitally out of nothing) as they deem necessary to "buy" their way out of this mess. And with the Grand Charlatan Obama at the healm, he has about as much expertise in business/finance as I have as a ballerina. The USD over the long haul is going to be toast, with technical corrections taking place along the way. The main fly in Thailand's ointment is the political situation. Overall, a balanced dispersion of assets across various currencies, gold, real estate, etc. is the safest way I think to deal with this situation.

[trogers]

Time to buy into the US real estate when THB10 = USD1,,,

[trogers]

My bet is Yuan and gold. I think both are liquid and gold is still undervalued (in my opinion) around 40%. USD is not stable and with the country deficit around 19 trillion and GDP around 65% of that, it can only go further down the toilet. My opinion for what it is worth.

the chinese currency doesn't care what you or me think. except for non-deliverable-forwards and some peanuts amount you can hold in certain Hong Kong banks CNY is extremely illiquid.

It's rather fun to watch China collecting the USD from the printing press of the Fed.

I would not want to hold either's currency when this game of passing the buck ends.

[churchill]

My bet is Yuan and gold. I think both are liquid and gold is still undervalued (in my opinion) around 40%. USD is not stable and with the country deficit around 19 trillion and GDP around 65% of that, it can only go further down the toilet. My opinion for what it is worth.

the chinese currency doesn't care what you or me think. except for non-deliverable-forwards and some peanuts amount you can hold in certain Hong Kong banks CNY is extremely illiquid.

It's rather fun to watch China collecting the USD from the printing press of the Fed.

I would not want to hold either's currency when this game of passing the buck ends.

It might end up reversing and with the USD being fixed to CNY

[flying]

It's rather fun to watch China collecting the USD from the printing press of the Fed.

I would not want to hold either's currency when this game of passing the buck ends.

Need to give China a bit more credit

None of us know what they have up their sleeve.

They could just start buying up North America & others for all things that matter.

While the USD is only a reserve currency of theirs they can still spend it how they choose. As long as it is accepted.

On that subject...reserve currencies....It is the US that has none.

I have always wondered if the claim of holding 8000 tons of gold was in fact their reserve & possibly why

others respect the USD....Military not withstanding.

To that end it is not surprising that the 8000 tons has not seen the light of a physical audit since the

1950's

Edited October 21, 2010 by flying

[trogers]

It's rather fun to watch China collecting the USD from the printing press of the Fed.

I would not want to hold either's currency when this game of passing the buck ends.

Need to give China a bit more credit

None of us know what they have up their sleeve.

They could just start buying up North America & others for all things that matter.

While the USD is only a reserve currency of theirs they can still spend it how they choose. As long as it is accepted.

On that subject...reserve currencies....It is the US that has none.

I have always wondered if the claim of holding 8000 tons of gold was in fact their reserve & possibly why

others respect the USD....Military not withstanding.

To that end it is not surprising that the 8000 tons has not seen the light of a physical audit since the

1950's

Most of this reserve currency is probably in the form of IOUs. Unlikely to be able to spend billions buying anything without causing ripples.

And we all know how a lender holding lots of IOUs can also go insolvent...

[flying]

Most of this reserve currency is probably in the form of IOUs. Unlikely to be able to spend billions buying anything without causing ripples.

Actually they have been buying.

Just a few...

Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about $2.9 billion

put in a $17 billion bid for for all of Repsol YPF SA's stake in YPF, its Argentine unit.

spent $1.7 billion to buy 60% of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp

acquired Swiss oil company Addax for $7.2 billion in June to gain access to Addax's contracts to drill for oil in Africa and Iraq.

$2.2 billion for Singapore Petroleum

Australia will export $41 billion worth of natural gas to China

CNPC teamed up with BP to make a successful bid on Iraq's Rumalia oil field.

Sinopec and CNOOC bought a 20% interest in off shore Angolan oil from Marathon Oil in mid-July. They paid $1.3 billion.

Sinochem paid $876.9 million for UK-based Emerald Energy, an oil and gas company with Middle Eastern and South American operations.

We also know that although they have gold mines ...They are not shy about buying more.