Friday-1.26 Us Dollars To Buy A Euro.

[TRIPxCORE]

Friday evening and I decided to take a look at the current exchange rates. Seems USD has tumbled to 1.26 Vs the Euro. For all those dollar bulls out there, you know who you are, what do you have to say about this?

[Harmonica]

Friday evening and I decided to take a look at the current exchange rates.  Seems USD has tumbled to 1.26 Vs the Euro.  For all those dollar bulls out there, you know who you are, what do you have to say about this?  

You have the right to make a profit too!

[Braccobaldo]

...simply...sell some euros and buy some dollars, for those who didn't make before..

[TRIPxCORE]

You have the right to make a profit too!   

Thats all you have to say on the subject? Are you still holding firm your belief that USD is the best place to put money?

...simply...sell some euros and buy some dollars, for those who didn't make before..

What does this mean?

Edited August 6, 2005 by TRIPxCORE

[Braccobaldo]

You have the right to make a profit too!     

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats all you have to say on the subject? Are you still holding firm your belief that USD is the best place to put money?

...simply...sell some euros and buy some dollars, for those who didn't make before..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What does this mean?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

..sorry, maybe sometimes my english is not clear...I mean that I think in long term dollar will join again 1:1 versus euro..so if someone sell euro now buying dollars will have +26% capital increase more about 4.3% yearly interest (usbond10y)...that's what I think.

[Firefan]

My 2 (Euro) cents are on the Euro simply due to it having more controls than the USD. Also; the deficits in the USA seems over whelming. Meanwhile my overall nest egg is spread across currencies and commodities as I admit that I have no real clue what will happen next with currencies.

Cheers!

[Harmonica]

You have the right to make a profit too!     

Thats all you have to say on the subject? Are you still holding firm your belief that USD is the best place to put money?

...simply...sell some euros and buy some dollars, for those who didn't make before..

What does this mean?

Trip, yes the USD has been & still is the currency of choice since December 30th, 2004.

What has occurred since July 8th is just simply a correction -- this is the normal progression of markets.

I will happily concede victory to you if EUR/USD takes out one or 2 major resistances, especially approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement mark.

I do take defeat quite well; its just that it has not happened for a looong time -- but I am never complacent enough to believe that the market cannot humiliate me in grand fashion -- when face to face & alone with her in the midst of my analysis & thoughts, I am indeed humbled by her sinuosity, dexterity, recalcitrance and curveballs.

But, to put things in proper perspective so we, especially I, do not get caught napping --

this is my call, approximately stated from the current vantage point -- and subject to change as more information comes in thru' observation of the unfolding battle:

(1) EUR/USD will continue on down to around 1.1759 or thereabouts, or perhaps lower if lucky --

(2) Then there will be a true retracement rally, possibly extending up all the way to 1.30+

(3) Then, USD will draw upon his finest weaponry & pour on the coal -- cataclysmic waterfall declines -- breathtakingly spectacular to behold; it is during this segment that both you and Warren Buffet will come face to face with your inner demons. I like you -- but Warren deserves a good financial lesson. He's already got one thus far, but the night is still young.

Presented below is a graph which clearly shows that the EUR rally so far has just barely crossed the 23.6% retracement level.

Always open to a challenge and ready to admit when wrong, I urge you to buy your ticket for the show.

I'm 100% in USD but will switch to Euro or Baht & play the thai stock market @ Euro = 1.1758.

Dollar knows I'm a businessman; I won't hurt his feelings.

[Harmonica]

My 2 (Euro) cents are on the Euro simply due to it having more controls than the USD. Also; the deficits in the USA seems over whelming. Meanwhile my overall nest egg is spread across currencies and commodities as I admit that I have no real clue what will happen next with currencies.

Cheers!

Typical scandinavian male, go with the herd, don't overexpose, take no risk

That's why I was nailing swedish women left and right; swedish men just didn't have the balls to get the job done.

If that santimonious, buddhist priest, sabaijai, a veritable "warning" factory reads this, chill out -- I like Firefan -- this is just joshing about, OK?

[Firefan]

your very special sense of humor breaks all boundaries...

But you are right; I diversify my asset and currency exposure and do not make specific bets on currency movements or trends.

Cheers!

My 2 (Euro) cents are on the Euro simply due to it having more controls than the USD. Also; the deficits in the USA seems over whelming. Meanwhile my overall nest egg is spread across currencies and commodities as I admit that I have no real clue what will happen next with currencies.

Cheers!

Typical scandinavian male, go with the herd, don't overexpose, take no risk

That's why I was nailing swedish women left and right; swedish men just didn't have the balls to get the job done.

If that santimonious, buddhist priest, sabaijai, a veritable "warning" factory reads this, chill out -- I like Firefan -- this is just joshing about, OK?

[britmaveric]

Short term gain - Euro will correct itself over the long term to below $1 - just wait until some of the 2nd tier eastern block countries replace their currency with the euro and looming Turkey which will by all means make the euro drop like a rock.

[Firefan]

Valid point Britmaveric. The Asian currencies might be the ones that will see a strengthening rather than the Euro. Cheers!

[IMA_FARANG]

Friday evening and I decided to take a look at the current exchange rates.  Seems USD has tumbled to 1.26 Vs the Euro.  For all those dollar bulls out there, you know who you are, what do you have to say about this? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For me personally, I was given a gift when the Euro went over 1.30 to the dollar. I am being paid in dollars, but live in Greece, so I pay rent/local stuff in Euro. I was given a $400 raise in cost-of-living because the Euro was over 1.30 to the dollar. Now it is back down to the 1.20 range, but I still have the cost-of-living raise.

Outside of the U.K. the Euro economies are not well. Yes, I know about the growing deficit the floppy eared twerp from Texas (the Bush leauger) is causing. it was one of the reasons the dollar dropped against the Euro. But a careful look would show how weak the Euro economies are. Especially Germany.

The Euro is simply finding it's true level against the dollar. It will flucuate up and down, but the Euro economies problems will keep it back in the 1.20 to 1.28 range.

Trying to pretend that the Euro will be 1.50 or above to the dollar is a great way to lose money. What goes up, must come down.

[Braccobaldo]

well..very strange...friday evening suddendly EUR bounce to 1.26...than on saturday, suddendly again, everything was "restored" to (about) the same friday afternoon levels.....comments are welcomed...

[haha]

My 2 (Euro) cents are on the Euro simply due to it having more controls than the USD. Also; the deficits in the USA seems over whelming. Meanwhile my overall nest egg is spread across currencies and commodities as I admit that I have no real clue what will happen next with currencies.

Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yes, the usa has a debt that they are working on. but don't lose perspective on the whole picture.

the us currency is now one of the oldest around. yes, it has only been in existence about 250 years. but compared to many currencies out there in the world, it is a veteran.

what does that mean, you ask?

well, germany has had at least 2 different currencies issued out over the course of 250 years as has happened in many other countries. with every regime change, you usually see a change in the currency.

that should in itself prove to you the strength inherit in the stability of the us dollar.

not to say that a currency change is bad. look at germany now. they are not doing so bad, right?

if the usa did a currency change like mexico, bolivia, and a host of other countries have done in the past 100 years, they would have no debt remaining, and the 2 generations down the line, nobody would know for the worse.

just recently, a bunch of countries in africa had their debt forgiven by wealthier countries.

money is only paper.

and ultimately, the value of money is based on BELIEF.

so ask yourself, if compared side by side with many other countries in the world, who would you put your bets on to survive if it came to push and shove?

when oil becomes an alternative fuel, who will you put your trust in?

when food becomes scarce, who will you put your trust in?

the EU is a much desired union in this day and age, but let's face it, they have yet to prove their legitimacy with only being in existence for a few years.

remember, for hundreds of years, the countries in europe were at war with one another for one reason or another. yes, the EU needs to prove itself by just existing for a while. and only time will tell if it is here to stay.

just to be the devil's advocate...

imagine this scenario...

for some reason, the EU breaks up because some of the countries can't get along together. what happens to the euro then? as I see it, it will cease to exist, right?

instead of 1.12 dollars to the euro, what would the euro be worth then? if this scenario occurs, all the euros that people have would become worthless.

..it's happened before oh so many times.

logic dictates that the us dollar is the place to be.

but hey. it's your money. you do whatever you want to do with it. you earned it, right?

[~G~]

logic dictates that the us dollar is the place to be.

Irrelevant.

The long term stability of the USD is hardly a tool to be used to predict the trend in the next weeks, months or years.

If you are really into logic, then consider that your arguments would have been as valid a few years ago as they are today - and yet the USD dropped significantly during this period.

Just to clarify - I am not claiming to know what will happen in the currency market short or long term - but nevertheless your arguments are irrelevant to making such a prediction.

[Firefan]

One thing I have noticed in currency discussions is that it often becomes emotional/nationalistic rather than based on facts.

Fact is that leaving out the global doomsday scenarios Haha is mentioning, the US is fighting some historical high deficits and to suggest US can just change their currency leads us right back to the doomsday scenarios.

Gold is the oldest (still resonably functional) currency and have survived due to governments not being able to make more out of thin air.

Personally I do, as G, not bet on currencies. But I diversify across the board, Incl. "real stuff" such as commodities and precious metals + real estate. So I hold USD too.

I agree that the balance between the Euro and the USD will always be a fluctuating one - and that the Euro was over valued at 1.30 - simply based on buying power. Reason for hitting the 1.30 was that it was the only decent alternative to the USD, not really the EU economies.

If I HAD to bet on currencies I would look at some of the Asian currencies having artificially being held down in order to ensure export competativeness.

SAfest; stay diversified so currency fluctuations does not reduce your overall buying power. Cheers!

[haha]

logic dictates that the us dollar is the place to be.

Irrelevant.

The long term stability of the USD is hardly a tool to be used to predict the trend in the next weeks, months or years.

If you are really into logic, then consider that your arguments would have been as valid a few years ago as they are today - and yet the USD dropped significantly during this period.

Just to clarify - I am not claiming to know what will happen in the currency market short or long term - but nevertheless your arguments are irrelevant to making such a prediction.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

the value of a currency is based on BELIEF, or as some put it, FAITH.

if you can convince enough people that something is wrong, then, for all intensive purposes it is wrong. right?

the reason why the us dollar is not like before is because enough people are convinced for one reason or another that it is not being valued properly. right?

some of the arguments people anti-us dollar are using is that the national debt is too high.

I'm just trying to point out some other considerations that people should be aware of before they jump on the bandwagon with all the other sheep.

as for the long term stability of a currency not have any bearing on the value it might have in the near future, I think you got it all wrong.

if people believe strongly in something, it is here to stay even if it encounters problems along the way.

all of us are here because our parents believed in us, right? even after all the crying bouts, and pissing in our pants, they still took care of us. thank buddha.

[~G~]

as for the long term stability of a currency not have any bearing on the value it might have in the near future, I think you got it all wrong.

I have explained why your view stated here does not stand the trial of reality. To make it simple, if your view is correct, the USD could never go down, even short term, which it did in the last years. It would have been be a perpetual money machine, just buy and sell with no chance of lose.

if people believe strongly in something, it is here to stay even if it encounters problems along the way.

That is right. They might very well ignore the actual facts, as you have just done, based on your belief on the stability of the USD.

all of us are here because our parents believed in us, right?

Well, some parents just didn't believe in contraceptive methods

[Firefan]

Haha; ehh... I don't really get your arguments in your last post - but bottom line is that having ones nest egg in one currency (whichever!) only is a bad financial strategy, especially for international people like us, who will have more exposure to currency swings than most.

The reasons why so many people believe that the USD will weaken, are right in our face (the triple deficits/war Etc. cost MONEY). Many people much smarter than be (Buffett, Bill Gross Etc.) believes the same.

One COULD argue that the risk is then already priced into the USD. I.e. there might be more upside than downside from here.

Time will show...

Cheers!

[haha]

Haha; ehh... I don't really get your arguments in your last post - but bottom line is that having ones nest egg in one currency (whichever!) only is a bad financial strategy, especially for international people like us, who will have more exposure to currency swings than most.

The reasons why so many people believe that the USD will weaken, are right in our face (the triple deficits/war Etc. cost MONEY). Many people much smarter than be (Buffett, Bill Gross Etc.) believes the same.

One COULD argue that the risk is then already priced into the USD. I.e. there might be more upside than downside from here.

Time will show...

Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with you. the concept of money and value are things most people never bothered to meditate on. they just accept it as it is without much thought.

have you ever wondered why any particular item costs as much as it does? or for that matter, why currency exchange rates are the way they are? have you ever wondered why thais are willing to work for far less than their counterparts in other countries? or for that matter, why the rich people in this country don't pay their workers more?

..I don't think it's due to greed on the part of the rich people. it just happened that way. thai workers just believed that their pay was adequate, and that was that. they had no perception of what was going on overseas. they only had their own experiences to draw upon.

like I said, it's all about BELIEF.

now, applying this knowledge to the total national debt in the US, perhaps you can now fathom what I'm talking about.

if the US wiped the slant clean and just told everybody that they wouldn't pay anybody what they owe, what do you think would happen? maybe some temporary turmoil, but soon after, it would be business as usual. people would be pissed off, but then life would carry on. the farms would continue producing food, and industry would thrive.

that is essentially what germany, and many other countries did in the past 100 years by changing their currencies.

and which was indirectly done by most countries who experienced regime changes.

still confused?

...ok. forget about it. just go listen to warren buffet.

life is too short as it is. thinking too much is a waste of time when you think about it.

I rather go bowling, and look at girls.

sometimes I wonder why I spend so much time on thaivisa.

..yeah, I get confused too at times.

[Firefan]

He,he - no problem Haha - we are just having a good discussion here. If not they would call it "agreement-boards" and how fun would THAT be?

Unlike most here I actually believe that global trade will lead to a strengthening of the Baht in the longer run. I have been wrong before!

Cheers!