Thai Economy Back In Recession

[thaihome]

Would appear the the the writters for AFP don't know the difference between slowing growth and a negative GDP.

WSJ ran a story yesterday that told the real the story. Headline was "Asian Economies Slow" with a lead in of "The economies of Thailand and Malaysia fell short of expectations during the third quarter as exports cooled, but full-year outlooks for both nations remain strong, with Thai authorities even upgrading their forecast." Certainly not the picture depicted by AFP.

TH

[craigt3365]

Would appear the the the writters for AFP don't know the difference between slowing growth and a negative GDP.

WSJ ran a story yesterday that told the real the story. Headline was "Asian Economies Slow" with a lead in of "The economies of Thailand and Malaysia fell short of expectations during the third quarter as exports cooled, but full-year outlooks for both nations remain strong, with Thai authorities even upgrading their forecast." Certainly not the picture depicted by AFP.

TH

Crazy stuff for sure. This just came out today:

The National Economic and Social Development Board yesterday raised its full-year forecast to 7.9% from a previous estimate of 7% to 7.5% in August.

The economy grew 6.7% in the third quarter ending September from the same period last year, down from the torrid 10.7% year-on-year growth posted for the first six months of the year.

The Thai economy contracted by 0.2% over the three months to September, declining for a second straight quarter after a contraction of 0.6% for the April to June period. Local economists said the decline, seen by some as a recession, was expected because of base effects and the result of slowing export growth caused by uncertainties in the global economy.

A growth rate of 7.9% is nothing to sneeze at! No wonder there are so many red tagged cars. Thai's are making money for sure. I posted this earlier, but was at a neighbor's party a few weeks ago. I spoke with 2 couples who own their own biz. One caters to tourists, the other to Thai's...including Thai tourists. The former is hurting big time. He exports stuff all over the world and his biz is in the toilet. The latter is expecting to gross 30M Baht this year. And if they do it next year, will just sell the biz and retire. They focus purely on the Thai market....

[tomloughney]

I look at the exchange rate regarding purchasing power and how that relates to value.

Value is the important thing here and back in the USA.

In the past I used to shop for clothing in the Thai markets and get a good golf shirt for 300 baht if I was careful. At the exchange rate of years ago that would be about $7 and a similar shirt in the USA would have been $30.

My last few trips back to the USA have shown a different picture. I now go to the Thai market and I can get that same shirt for 400 baht and now that costs me $14 or so. I can find sales in the USA to get a similar shirt for about $15 at the likes of JC Penny. In general the fit in the USA is better and if I have a problem with it I can return it for an exchange or refund, even after I wear it.

So the Value of shopping in Thailand, even if I can save $1 or so is not a good deal now. However before when the Thai shirt was of so-so quality but was $23 cheaper the Thai shirt was a value buy.

I used to be $25 to play golf here, all in for a day at 1,000 baht. Now it is 1,800 on avg for a day out or $60. The USA pricing is generally between $40-60 for a round out. Not holiday or weekend prices in either place. So the Value of golf here is not better than the USA. Additionally here they do not pay real-estate tax, wages are lower, and they have the sunk capital of having the course in place which would mean that the cost of operations is less than the USA but the prices in the USA have not gone up very much but here the price nearly doubled in local currency.

Skippy peanut butter used to be about 110 baht here on sale sometimes for 90 baht. Price before $3 or so slightly more than the USA. Now Skippy is about 156 to 172 depending on the market and with the baht changing the cost now is $5-6 a bottle. I have seen deals in the USA for 3 for $5 but normal prices are still about $2.50/bottle. Why would the skippy go up from 100 to 150 baht when the baht went from 40 to 30 and the price in the USA, source country is still the same. The Value of buying peanut butter in Thailand is not there anymore. I think negative value when I know it is just a grab for western money by raising the price when the local currency is getting stronger.

Everybody should make money, but greed is not a positive trait.

The price of a car, I bought a 2007 hi honda civic for 937,000 baht (cash with no test drive) or just about $30,000 dollars. The same exact car in New Jersey was $15,600 with a test drive. The same car now is nearly 1,000,000 baht or about $34,000 and if the car is imported the importers and paying less baht therefore making more money and raising the prices locally at the same time. I get the feeling it is not a good Value now.

Medical is still a good deal here compared to the USA, mostly due to lack of Lawyers here I suspect. Movies are ok also but at 150 for a ticket here or $5 is is $8 in the USA for most places. Less but not a super deal.

Etc, etc. Etc....

However I have been here for 13 years and have not plans to go back and live in the USA unless the baht goes to 20 when it would be a poor value to stay here longer.

[Naam]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

You must be right again! You now consider Thailand a third world country... Where are you from, that you are so "high class?"

Thailand is my host country. i like to live in Thailand and enjoy the multitude of advantages the country has to offer. but that does not change the fact that Thailand is in each and every respect a third world country and will remain a third world country for many years to come.

:jap:

[SergeiY]

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

These people just profit from the wealth gap and from the circumstance that Thailand is less developed, poorer than the West. But the world is changing and this gap is shrinking with Thailands further economic development.

In Thailand some construction worker or some assembly line worker can not afford some holidays abroad meanwhile some Western blue-collar Joe can play in Thailand the "big boss". In the future, with the globalisation, the wealth will be distributed more equally what probably means that you in the west will get significant less because you are totally overpaid and other regions of this planet become more prosper and the living standard for this people will become better. So it goes.

Globalisation is a beautiful thing, only the unionist and nationalist-(socialist) and xenophobes in the west will tell you otherwise, they want keep the biggest piece of the cake for themselves and are not willing to share with their colleagues world wide.

Yes its more than selfish and very low to hope that the economy in Thailand will suffer, the grow rate decline so that the blue collar Joe from Sheffield can still play the 'rich man' in a low developed country. That is an ugly attitude back from the days of colonialism.

To the ongoing political crisis these people can only place their stupid comments a la 'why stays the baht so strong'. That is their only concern.

And they start to begrudge Thais because more and more Thais can afford fancy new cars and expensive imports from Europe. Their own western 'rich man' status is on the wane. Face it.

Anyway, i know your retirees and i would not label them all as cheap charlies. You are right, many of them them are decent people. So lets hope for them that their economy and their pound sterling comes back on track, but don't wish that a global crisis will hit Thailand hard and harder.

Interesting point of view, although you seem to contradict yourself on the last paragraph and have a very narrow one-sided view.

Do you know that there are many Western workers who cannot afford some holidays abroad and that there are many Thais faring pretty well abroad. You should travel around West London and see for yourself the Thai property, restaurant and business owners. I also personally know of Thais living in the UK that are claiming benefits and benefiting from free schooling for their kids, free National Heath medical treatment and low rent housing association homes. And do you know that the amount of Westerners that decide to live in Thailand are an extremely low percentage compared to other nationalities, the Burmese for example and taking an educated guess, I would say that there are more Thais living abroad then there are Westerners in Thailand.

My girlfriend has 2 brothers living abroad. One based in the United States and another in England. One is married to an American farang lady, the other to a Thai lady. Both own their own homes, cars, are employed, earn a decent living wage and not hassled by the Governments. Which is more than most of us are permitted to do in Thailand or at least not hassle free.

May I ask; are you by chance a Socialist?

No, i am not a socialist. I thought it would be clear were i stand with the line i repeat here for you.

Globalisation is a beautiful thing, only the unionist and nationalist-(socialist) and xenophobes in the west will tell you otherwise.

I am more close to the people the socialists saw and see as their arch enemy - Manchester Capitalism.

besides envy on Thai immigrants - what is your point?

[Thai at Heart]

I wonder how long it will take people to realise that the exchange rates that were seen here 5 years ago were a legacy of the 1997 financial crisis?

The baht sat at 25 to the USD for years, and severe mismanagment of capital in flows and corrupt lending screwed it up (doesn't that sound like "sub prime" to you). The fundamentals of the economy have been good for many years and lo and behold, the West has its own corrupt/sub prime lending crisis and is now printing money hand over fist. Moaning that the currency in Thailand can't possibly be worth 30 to the USD or 47 to the GBP when those countries themselves are undergoing quantitative easing, (another phrase for printing money) to the tune of 100s of billions of dollars, and GDP growth in Thailand has been running along quite nicely at 3% plus for a while denies the fundamentals.

Many expats here never actually see how much industry there really is in the country, or how much investment has been going on for the last few years. The industrial and export economy here has been doing quite well in reality.

So, after running up and up for the last 5 or 10 years, it appears that exports are finally getting knocked by a strong exchange rate, so expect that the baht will maybe weaken a bit. I have of a lot more faith in Korn to make some kind of plan to sort this out, than just about anyone else in the country.

[hardy1943]

With the strength of the baht this is no surprise.

Took no economist to fore see that one. Lets see how bad it will get.

[SergeiY]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

Do you not understand, these tourists you denigrate support a lot of jobs for poor people, here in Thailand ? And that it tends to be poor people working in the factories which produce goods for export ? The strong Baht has not been good for the poor. And the government-of-the-time seemed very slow to realise what the results might be, when things first went 'pear-shaped' internationally, a couple of years ago.

Rather a free-spending 2/3-week farang tourist or a 4/8-week backpacker, than rely on someone who comes on a short-package deal, and walks everywhere but never enters a bar or restaurant, who buys their booze at 7/11 and parties on-the-beach or in their room, to spend a satang with the locals.

But perhaps it's simpler just to blame whoever is in government, for the economic consequences of a relatively-strong Baht, and global economic problems. Or to believe that there really is a vast pool of rich hi-so tourists, who will buy an Elite-card, and want to pay ever-more for already-overpriced hotels & dirty beaches ?

Don't overrate the influence and importance of the money some foreigners spend on beer, other drinks and entertainment.

All you want is a cheap holiday destination, that Thais remain poor and your servant. But why should Thailand adjust to the economic downturn and currency depreciation of your home country?

The strong Baht isn't a sign of an economic crisis in Thailand but rather the opposite. Labour is still 'cheap' and Thailand competitive on the global market and the investments are coming.

Only you are maybe the economic loser here who cannot afford a previous lifestyle anymore, but not Thailand nor Thais.

[SergeiY]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

I am so bored of seeing your yawns as an answer,

Do you consider yourself high class? Just few years ago Russian could not afford to buy an airplane ticket and now here you are passing judgements.

When you go to a club, do you buy 1 bottle of water and then sit with it for 5 hours? because this is what all the Russians do.

1 thing Russians are known for is trying to show off and this is exactly what you are doing, i really doubt you have any money at all and most likely working for some real estate or tour guide for 30k/ month, which is double the salary you would get in Russia so all over a sudden you are wealthy.

Could you not cut it in Russia so you became and "rich" man in Thailand

Next time try to post something little more intelligent and in your league.

So you don't like Russians. But what it has to do with this topic?

If you with your foreign money cannot afford a living in Thailand anymore and when there are no cheap flights at the moment you should not hope for another '97.

[mark45y]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Good to see the hi-so's are around.

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

I have many friends in Thailand from Africa and the Philippines. They teach school. Every month they subtract what they need to live from what they earn and they are left with more money than they would have at home.

That is why a lot of people come to Thailand because every month after expenses they have more money than they would have if they stayed home. The tourist on a fixed income is no different. He has more money left at the end of the month in Thailand.

You think this is wrong?

[mark45y]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

I am so bored of seeing your yawns as an answer,

Do you consider yourself high class? Just few years ago Russian could not afford to buy an airplane ticket and now here you are passing judgements.

When you go to a club, do you buy 1 bottle of water and then sit with it for 5 hours? because this is what all the Russians do.

1 thing Russians are known for is trying to show off and this is exactly what you are doing, i really doubt you have any money at all and most likely working for some real estate or tour guide for 30k/ month, which is double the salary you would get in Russia so all over a sudden you are wealthy.

Could you not cut it in Russia so you became and "rich" man in Thailand

Next time try to post something little more intelligent and in your league.

I agree. The yawn replies are very rude.

[mark45y]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

Do you not understand, these tourists you denigrate support a lot of jobs for poor people, here in Thailand ? And that it tends to be poor people working in the factories which produce goods for export ? The strong Baht has not been good for the poor. And the government-of-the-time seemed very slow to realise what the results might be, when things first went 'pear-shaped' internationally, a couple of years ago.

Rather a free-spending 2/3-week farang tourist or a 4/8-week backpacker, than rely on someone who comes on a short-package deal, and walks everywhere but never enters a bar or restaurant, who buys their booze at 7/11 and parties on-the-beach or in their room, to spend a satang with the locals.

But perhaps it's simpler just to blame whoever is in government, for the economic consequences of a relatively-strong Baht, and global economic problems. Or to believe that there really is a vast pool of rich hi-so tourists, who will buy an Elite-card, and want to pay ever-more for already-overpriced hotels & dirty beaches ?

Don't overrate the influence and importance of the money some foreigners spend on beer, other drinks and entertainment.

All you want is a cheap holiday destination, that Thais remain poor and your servant. But why should Thailand adjust to the economic downturn and currency depreciation of your home country?

The strong Baht isn't a sign of an economic crisis in Thailand but rather the opposite. Labour is still 'cheap' and Thailand competitive on the global market and the investments are coming.

Only you are maybe the economic loser here who cannot afford a previous lifestyle anymore, but not Thailand nor Thais.

Thailand is an export economy. The strong Baht will lower exports. That is why China will not let the Chinese currency float and appreciate. If the Baht continues to rise Thailand will go broke.

[Thai at Heart]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

Do you not understand, these tourists you denigrate support a lot of jobs for poor people, here in Thailand ? And that it tends to be poor people working in the factories which produce goods for export ? The strong Baht has not been good for the poor. And the government-of-the-time seemed very slow to realise what the results might be, when things first went 'pear-shaped' internationally, a couple of years ago.

Rather a free-spending 2/3-week farang tourist or a 4/8-week backpacker, than rely on someone who comes on a short-package deal, and walks everywhere but never enters a bar or restaurant, who buys their booze at 7/11 and parties on-the-beach or in their room, to spend a satang with the locals.

But perhaps it's simpler just to blame whoever is in government, for the economic consequences of a relatively-strong Baht, and global economic problems. Or to believe that there really is a vast pool of rich hi-so tourists, who will buy an Elite-card, and want to pay ever-more for already-overpriced hotels & dirty beaches ?

Don't overrate the influence and importance of the money some foreigners spend on beer, other drinks and entertainment.

All you want is a cheap holiday destination, that Thais remain poor and your servant. But why should Thailand adjust to the economic downturn and currency depreciation of your home country?

The strong Baht isn't a sign of an economic crisis in Thailand but rather the opposite. Labour is still 'cheap' and Thailand competitive on the global market and the investments are coming.

Only you are maybe the economic loser here who cannot afford a previous lifestyle anymore, but not Thailand nor Thais.

Tourism is important, but it is obviously not the be all and end all of Thai economic policy.

The problem with a collapse in tourism business in Thailand is it employs so many low wage people, and does contribute a massive amount of money to the black economy. However, blaming the strong baht alone is wrong. The rest of the world is in the crappa economically so the tourism numbers were always going to be down. Add in the fact that people have been sitting around in Europe seeing tanks and protests on and off for the last 2/3 years, so no amount of effort was going to to convince a large percentage of new tourists to come.

If the numbers of "true" tourists i.e. holiday makers who get off a plane to go to the beach or the mountains, as opposed to businessmen flicking in for meetings, is 10 or 9 or 8 mn, there is no way to realistically expect that number to be growing when the US and Europe is facing its largest economic crisis since the Wall Street Crash. A large amount of potential tourists in Europe are not going to spend 100 to 200k for a two week break in Thailand when they might be out of a job next week. Just flying to Thailand from Europe or the US is a significant cost.

I am very curious to see what concrete plans the government has to attract more FDI into the country. They plan to cut corporate taxes, which is a start of some sort, but until there is a semblance of more stable government in the country, many companies will simply shy away from it and go elsewhere. Problem is, the types of jobs this type of industry creates won't help many foot massage people or girls swinging around poles to find income. The best days of catering to the Western tourist exclusively maybe are gone for good.

[craigt3365]

Yawn. If the simpletons stay away it will be also no loss.

Some low class people from the west want Thailand to stay 3rd world so that they can fell themselves better. Hoping that the economy of Thailand goes bad just for the better exchange rate in favour of your home country currency is selfish and the lowest of the low. But i guess you have difficulties to understand that.

I am so bored of seeing your yawns as an answer,

Do you consider yourself high class? Just few years ago Russian could not afford to buy an airplane ticket and now here you are passing judgements.

When you go to a club, do you buy 1 bottle of water and then sit with it for 5 hours? because this is what all the Russians do.

1 thing Russians are known for is trying to show off and this is exactly what you are doing, i really doubt you have any money at all and most likely working for some real estate or tour guide for 30k/ month, which is double the salary you would get in Russia so all over a sudden you are wealthy.

Could you not cut it in Russia so you became and "rich" man in Thailand

Next time try to post something little more intelligent and in your league.

I agree. The yawn replies are very rude.

For sure, extremely rude. Especially when he follows them with this: :jerk:

[Scott]

I will remind people to stay on-topic and to stay away from personal comments about other posters. If you find them irritating, please ignore them. If they are breaking the rules, feel free to report them.

Thanks.

[whybother]

<snip>

I am very curious to see what concrete plans the government has to attract more FDI into the country. They plan to cut corporate taxes, which is a start of some sort, but until there is a semblance of more stable government in the country, many companies will simply shy away from it and go elsewhere. Problem is, the types of jobs this type of industry creates won't help many foot massage people or girls swinging around poles to find income. The best days of catering to the Western tourist exclusively maybe are gone for good.

Actually, I was quite surprised to hear at an AustCham function in Pattaya a couple of weeks ago, that there is a number of new and increased business investments coming into Thailand in the near future. The unstable government and protest situation doesn't seem to be affecting all business investment.

[SergeiY]

I have many friends in Thailand from Africa and the Philippines. They teach school. Every month they subtract what they need to live from what they earn and they are left with more money than they would have at home.

That is why a lot of people come to Thailand because every month after expenses they have more money than they would have if they stayed home. The tourist on a fixed income is no different. He has more money left at the end of the month in Thailand.

You think this is wrong?

I have nothing against people with a modest life style and your friends actually profit from a bright economy and a strong Baht in Thailand.

I mean this kind people who hope and pray for an economic downturn in Thailand. They don't want prosperity for Thailand but the worst, they want the crisis and in order to exchange their foreign tourist money at the best rates against a weak and cheap local currency.

If they read 'economy in recession' it is good news for them, gives them hope that Thailand becomes even more cheaper.

If there is a political crisis, violent protests, dead people on the street, building burning they have nothing better to do than to express their hope that the Baht will drop in value.

Do you see nothing wrong in that?

[Thai at Heart]

<snip>

I am very curious to see what concrete plans the government has to attract more FDI into the country. They plan to cut corporate taxes, which is a start of some sort, but until there is a semblance of more stable government in the country, many companies will simply shy away from it and go elsewhere. Problem is, the types of jobs this type of industry creates won't help many foot massage people or girls swinging around poles to find income. The best days of catering to the Western tourist exclusively maybe are gone for good.

Actually, I was quite surprised to hear at an AustCham function in Pattaya a couple of weeks ago, that there is a number of new and increased business investments coming into Thailand in the near future. The unstable government and protest situation doesn't seem to be affecting all business investment.

Undoubted some is continuing. Mapthaput has had the rulings against investment raised so there are some very big projects back up and running. Rayong has been chock full of Dow Chemical people for months doing stuff in SCG.

However, I have a feeling that many of these projects are increasing the capacity of existing facilities, so to some extent these companies are already here, and have some little option to move. I heard yesterday for example that Canon is building a new facility in Korat that needs 6000 workers, so the doom and gloom isn't exactly reality. But then Canon has been in Thailand for donkey's years.

What I am curious to see is if the government is willing to play with long standing rules and regs to make the country even more attractive to "first time" buyer so to say. For example, despite the cost differences, many multinationals still choose Singapore or KL for their regional offices because of the ease of doing business, logistics, visa rules, or any other plethora of reasons. The restrictions on industries that can be undertaken by foreign companies here in Thailand is as long as your arm, and goes right to the centre of big power Thai politics. Will it change, I doubt it.

I have been through it in previous companies where when bare fact comparison between Thailand and other countries around the region doesn't make Thailand top of the list, so the investment went elsewhere.

[KevinB]

Before this discussion degenerates into a slanging match about retirees livings on pensions and visitor Joe coming on a holiday. Let me ask the following.

America, in an attempt to re-start growth launches Quantatative Easing - by releasing Billions of US$ into the Banking Sector. The plan being that these Banks will lend money to small business and this will generate jobs. BUT what happens the BanKs start lending this money to folk who can afford to borrow (the Rich already) . And they move the money to areas like Thai land where interest rates are higher or stock values are growing because there is still real economic growth - in order to make a profit (interest they receive - interest they pay on dirty cheap US$). So maybe we should be complaining about the Banks - for the leakage of cheap money from the US into developing economies - Of course the Thai Government has to protect this economy from negative effects. This country doesn't need speculative investment - folk buying condos - not to live in them but to sell at a profit as prices rise because price inflation caused by their own speculative investments. Think about it - this is just another problem caused by the Big Banks - whose belef in money for nothing is what got us into the mess in the first place.

[whybother]

<snip>

I am very curious to see what concrete plans the government has to attract more FDI into the country. They plan to cut corporate taxes, which is a start of some sort, but until there is a semblance of more stable government in the country, many companies will simply shy away from it and go elsewhere. Problem is, the types of jobs this type of industry creates won't help many foot massage people or girls swinging around poles to find income. The best days of catering to the Western tourist exclusively maybe are gone for good.

Actually, I was quite surprised to hear at an AustCham function in Pattaya a couple of weeks ago, that there is a number of new and increased business investments coming into Thailand in the near future. The unstable government and protest situation doesn't seem to be affecting all business investment.

Undoubted some is continuing. Mapthaput has had the rulings against investment raised so there are some very big projects back up and running. Rayong has been chock full of Dow Chemical people for months doing stuff in SCG.

However, I have a feeling that many of these projects are increasing the capacity of existing facilities, so to some extent these companies are already here, and have some little option to move. I heard yesterday for example that Canon is building a new facility in Korat that needs 6000 workers, so the doom and gloom isn't exactly reality. But then Canon has been in Thailand for donkey's years.

What I am curious to see is if the government is willing to play with long standing rules and regs to make the country even more attractive to "first time" buyer so to say. For example, despite the cost differences, many multinationals still choose Singapore or KL for their regional offices because of the ease of doing business, logistics, visa rules, or any other plethora of reasons. The restrictions on industries that can be undertaken by foreign companies here in Thailand is as long as your arm, and goes right to the centre of big power Thai politics. Will it change, I doubt it.

I have been through it in previous companies where when bare fact comparison between Thailand and other countries around the region doesn't make Thailand top of the list, so the investment went elsewhere.

Most of what was mentioned was related to the automotive industry. A couple of big players increasing their production, but also new suppliers coming in.

[SergeiY]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Thank you so much MaiChai for your post. At least you are sober enough to see the reality which SergeiY do NOT see. talking about old guys working their whole lifes and just tries to get by. And on top of that get hit by a guy called SergeiY. Who seems to belong to some kind of an upper class. No thank you SergeiY, you are NOT my kind of a guy, in that you are correct.

Glegolo

No i am sober and i don't cheer 'Hip, hip, hooray!' and call it GOOD NEWS when the topic title reads as "Thai Economy Back In Recession".

[mark45y]

Before this discussion degenerates into a slanging match about retirees livings on pensions and visitor Joe coming on a holiday. Let me ask the following.

America, in an attempt to re-start growth launches Quantatative Easing - by releasing Billions of US$ into the Banking Sector. The plan being that these Banks will lend money to small business and this will generate jobs. BUT what happens the BanKs start lending this money to folk who can afford to borrow (the Rich already) . And they move the money to areas like Thai land where interest rates are higher or stock values are growing because there is still real economic growth - in order to make a profit (interest they receive - interest they pay on dirty cheap US$). So maybe we should be complaining about the Banks - for the leakage of cheap money from the US into developing economies - Of course the Thai Government has to protect this economy from negative effects. This country doesn't need speculative investment - folk buying condos - not to live in them but to sell at a profit as prices rise because price inflation caused by their own speculative investments. Think about it - this is just another problem caused by the Big Banks - whose belef in money for nothing is what got us into the mess in the first place.

Compare interest rates between Thailand and Australia. Where does the money go?

[SergeiY]

<snip>

I am very curious to see what concrete plans the government has to attract more FDI into the country. They plan to cut corporate taxes, which is a start of some sort, but until there is a semblance of more stable government in the country, many companies will simply shy away from it and go elsewhere. Problem is, the types of jobs this type of industry creates won't help many foot massage people or girls swinging around poles to find income. The best days of catering to the Western tourist exclusively maybe are gone for good.

Actually, I was quite surprised to hear at an AustCham function in Pattaya a couple of weeks ago, that there is a number of new and increased business investments coming into Thailand in the near future. The unstable government and protest situation doesn't seem to be affecting all business investment.

Yes, and so is the strong Baht not a nail in the coffin of Thailands economy. And also will the tourism industry not much suffer from the exchange rate. If there is a downturn in (western) tourist numbers it has probably also other economical reason in the home countries of these tourist that make them maybe stay home and not come.

The domestic market in Thailand is strong, Thais are consumers too, investors will find labour at good rates, the export business is nowhere near a collapse.

[Thai at Heart]

Most of what was mentioned was related to the automotive industry. A couple of big players increasing their production, but also new suppliers coming in.

Good news. As I said, expanding what is already here is one thing, getting new and fresh industry another.

The set up of the Thai automotive industry has to be the most successful bit of business Thailand has done. It has brought billions into the country, generated thousands of jobs and Thailand is essentially a one stop shop for car production. it took the Japs to do it, but do it they have. I would presume if you want cars built in SE Asia, Thailand is extremely attractive logistically.

Which industry will be the next one for Thailand?

[mark45y]

Thailand has 10 baht. A Thai farmer buys seed and fertilizer from America. 1 baht. Buys a tractor from Japan. 2 baht. Buys petroleum for his tractor from Saudi Arabia. 1 baht. He grows some rice. Sells it to another Thai. Income 4 Baht. Now Thailand has 10 baht.

A Thai farmer buys seed and fertilizer from America. 1 baht. Buys a tractor from Japan. 2 baht. Buys petroleum for his tractor from Saudi Arabia. 1 baht. He grows some rice. Sells it to China income 4 baht. Now Thailand has 10 baht.

Thailand has 10 baht. A Thai bar girl gets a German customer who has entered Thailand with 1 baht. The German gives it to the bar girl. Income one baht. The bar girl spends the money on rent. Thailand now has 11 baht.

[whybother]

Yes, and so is the strong Baht not a nail in the coffin of Thailands economy. And also will the tourism industry not much suffer from the exchange rate. If there is a downturn in (western) tourist numbers it has probably also other economical reason in the home countries of these tourist that make them maybe stay home and not come.

The domestic market in Thailand is strong, Thais are consumers too, investors will find labour at good rates, the export business is nowhere near a collapse.

The Australian dollar is very strong against the baht at the moment, so I would expect an increase in Australian tourists. Ofcourse the $AU is strong against most currencies, so Thailand will still need to compete against other countries.

[mark45y]

Most of what was mentioned was related to the automotive industry. A couple of big players increasing their production, but also new suppliers coming in.

Good news. As I said, expanding what is already here is one thing, getting new and fresh industry another.

The set up of the Thai automotive industry has to be the most successful bit of business Thailand has done. It has brought billions into the country, generated thousands of jobs and Thailand is essentially a one stop shop for car production. it took the Japs to do it, but do it they have. I would presume if you want cars built in SE Asia, Thailand is extremely attractive logistically.

Which industry will be the next one for Thailand?

Ford's sales in Thailand began in 1913[1] with the Model T, but it was only in 1961 that Ford began construction there. Anglo-Thai Motors Company, Ford’s distributor, announced in 1960 that it would build a factory in the country, with Thai Motor Company the result. This was the first time automobiles had been built in Thailand.

[Nowhereman60]

Why are Thais still buying. There using credit to buy. You can't go to Big C, Tesco and not see every Thai paying with a credit card, even if the total bill is only 100 baht.

[DP25]

If the numbers of "true" tourists i.e. holiday makers who get off a plane to go to the beach or the mountains, as opposed to businessmen flicking in for meetings, is 10 or 9 or 8 mn, there is no way to realistically expect that number to be growing when the US and Europe is facing its largest economic crisis since the Wall Street Crash. A large amount of potential tourists in Europe are not going to spend 100 to 200k for a two week break in Thailand when they might be out of a job next week. Just flying to Thailand from Europe or the US is a significant cost.

Good thing tourists from those places, Europe and North America, only make up about a third of the total these days.

[Naam]

Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.2 percent in the three months through September from the previous quarter, when it contracted by a revised 0.6 percent, according to official estimates.

why the big hoo-ha?