Uk Sterling

[phutoie2]

Well it's been a few weeks since our last where is GBP going topic so this is the Daily Telegraphs latest article.

More importantly how is it going to shape up against the mighty Thai Baht in 2011

Here

[apetley]

Every little helps I guess but if the Dollar stays around the 30 mark that would only put Sterling back up to maybe 55.

It was only a little over 2 years ago that I got 71 when building our house. Memories!

[fletchsmile]

GBP strengthening vs USD is seems reasonable. But it also seems reasonable for THB to be stronger vs USD by end 2011 as well, so no significant gains in GBP/THB.

Might provide some UK expats a chance to bring in some more pounds and convert to baht at a rate above 50 some point during 2011 though.

Edited December 10, 2010 by fletchsmile

[ESB7]

Raging inflation will need to be kept under wraps next year as Mervyn Kings dinasour ways of thinking just isnt working, interest rates in double figures will surely strenghen the pound

[nong38]

Interest rates will have to rise soon in the UK, what is holding them back is mortgage rates that will screw people who have them and will take spending power out of the economy. Coveniently savers are forgotten but when rates rise it will reduce one stream but the savings one will open,but it probably wont balance and thats whats frigthening the people who dont want to make the decision. Vaguely there is talk of tiny rises by the end of 2011 so it looks like a long haul of samll rises which is not good for the exchange rate. _robably have to wait 3 or 4 years sadly before rates are back at a level that will really make a difference and then do you take a chance and bring it out here? The rate will steadily improve over the next year, personally I would be happy at 50 anything above will be a bonus and there are so many factors that could also affect the rate, keep your fingers crossed>

[cardholder]

Every little helps I guess but if the Dollar stays around the 30 mark that would only put Sterling back up to maybe 55.

It was only a little over 2 years ago that I got 71 when building our house. Memories!

I will take 55

[cardholder]

Raging inflation will need to be kept under wraps next year as Mervyn Kings dinasour ways of thinking just isnt working, interest rates in double figures will surely strenghen the pound

"Raging" inflation is something of a sensationalist statement typical of tabloid journalism in the UK.

You will not see double digit interest rates again in your lifetime. Most forecasts are for a maximum 1.25% by the end of 2011. With limited growth forecast (at circa 3%) no economy could sustain interest rate levels that you mention.

Raging inflation is 15/20% that was seen in the 1970's not 4-5% that we are seeing now. Mervyn King said:-

He said inflation was expected to remain above the 2pc target until the end of next year, while in May the Bank was forecasting below-target inflation for 2011.

Mr King said that once the effects of temporary price shocks - including the planned increase in VAT to 20pc from 17.5pc from January next year - dropped out of the annual inflation rate comparison, inflation would fall back, probably to below target.

[ESB7]

Raging inflation will need to be kept under wraps next year as Mervyn Kings dinasour ways of thinking just isnt working, interest rates in double figures will surely strenghen the pound

"Raging" inflation is something of a sensationalist statement typical of tabloid journalism in the UK.

You will not see double digit interest rates again in your lifetime. Most forecasts are for a maximum 1.25% by the end of 2011. With limited growth forecast (at circa 3%) no economy could sustain interest rate levels that you mention.

Raging inflation is 15/20% that was seen in the 1970's not 4-5% that we are seeing now. Mervyn King said:-

He said inflation was expected to remain above the 2pc target until the end of next year, while in May the Bank was forecasting below-target inflation for 2011.

Mr King said that once the effects of temporary price shocks - including the planned increase in VAT to 20pc from 17.5pc from January next year - dropped out of the annual inflation rate comparison, inflation would fall back, probably to below target.

Thats what they said in the early nineties...Meryvn King is a fossil and bases his ideology on the UK as a manufacturing country....that is no longer true, weak Sterling is flamming the fires of inflation as imports are so high......take a look at inceases over the past year for everyday products and everyone knows that inflation is really well above 4.6% in reality.....if interest rates can drop 5% in 4 months then they can certainly increase at the same level........figures can always be massaged but next year will see drastic changes in the UK

[12DrinkMore]

"Raging" inflation is something of a sensationalist statement typical of tabloid journalism in the UK.

You will not see double digit interest rates again in your lifetime. Most forecasts are for a maximum 1.25% by the end of 2011. With limited growth forecast (at circa 3%) no economy could sustain interest rate levels that you mention.

Raging inflation is 15/20% that was seen in the 1970's not 4-5% that we are seeing now. Mervyn King said:-

He said inflation was expected to remain above the 2pc target until the end of next year, while in May the Bank was forecasting below-target inflation for 2011.

Mr King said that once the effects of temporary price shocks - including the planned increase in VAT to 20pc from 17.5pc from January next year - dropped out of the annual inflation rate comparison, inflation would fall back, probably to below target.

I am fed up with King, a man full of excuses. He has two responsibilities

1. To contain inflation to TWO percent

2. To maintain stability within the UK finance system.

He has failed.on both counts.

I am fed up with hearing his excuses to curb inflation, basically for the last couple of years we have heard "although the current inflation is above target, I expect inflation to drop below target in twelve months". This is absolute bullshit. He should be sacked on this count alone. How long will he be allowed to keep saying this?

And as to stability withing the financial system. At least he has come clean and declared the current system as the "worst of all options". But if he does not have the will nor power to fix it with a better system, then he should be fired, rather than left to sit at the BoE gathering more pension rights.

But back to that Sterling issue.

The currency would be supported by an export surplus, requiring GBP's to be purchased, but

UK trade deficit widens as imports rise

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11957554

The deficit - the difference between what the UK exports and imports - grew to £3.9bn from £3.8bn in September.

No much hope there.

Then we have the possibility that the "hot money" will flow to the UK for a better return on investment. Well, no interest rate increase expected before the end of 2011. So not much hope there.

And the third possibility is that there will be some momentous political decision that will revive hope in the UK causing huge inflows of foreign investment capital to come rolling in. Yep, dream on.

Asia is the place to look to, economies are growing, investment is taking place, education standards are rising, people expect to work for a living instead of waiting for the Nanny State, there are no huge pension liabilities looming, taxes are low and the governments, by and large, stay the fuc_k out of people's attempts to start up small businesses.

Edited December 10, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[ChiangMaiFun]

I'd think a small recovery to 53/54 should be on the cards - sterling has suffered beyond what would be expected - not so sure about the dollar though

[billd766]

I'd think a small recovery to 53/54 should be on the cards - sterling has suffered beyond what would be expected - not so sure about the dollar though

That would be nice but apetly's 71 would be much nicer.

46 and 47 hurts.

[ChiangMaiFun]

I'd think a small recovery to 53/54 should be on the cards - sterling has suffered beyond what would be expected - not so sure about the dollar though

That would be nice but apetly's 71 would be much nicer.

46 and 47 hurts.

71 would be orgasmic - better than sex (but probably would not last as long) mid-50s is the best we can hope for alas... some even predict going lower than 40 which will really crucify those on a visa that requires an income from UK.

[billd766]

I'd think a small recovery to 53/54 should be on the cards - sterling has suffered beyond what would be expected - not so sure about the dollar though

That would be nice but apetly's 71 would be much nicer.

46 and 47 hurts.

71 would be orgasmic - better than sex (but probably would not last as long) mid-50s is the best we can hope for alas... some even predict going lower than 40 which will really crucify those on a visa that requires an income from UK.

One of them may be me but I am on a retirement visa at the moment and thinking of changing to a married one in July.

Just as a precaution.

[JimsKnight]

Raging inflation will need to be kept under wraps next year as Mervyn Kings dinasour ways of thinking just isnt working, interest rates in double figures will surely strenghen the pound

LOL!

I know that, you know that and folks who follow Austrian School of Economics understand this intimately.

But the BoE wants the £ to be p*ss poor and weak.

Edited December 12, 2010 by JimsKnight

[ChiangMaiFun]

I'd think a small recovery to 53/54 should be on the cards - sterling has suffered beyond what would be expected - not so sure about the dollar though

That would be nice but apetly's 71 would be much nicer.

46 and 47 hurts.

71 would be orgasmic - better than sex (but probably would not last as long) mid-50s is the best we can hope for alas... some even predict going lower than 40 which will really crucify those on a visa that requires an income from UK.

One of them may be me but I am on a retirement visa at the moment and thinking of changing to a married one in July.

Just as a precaution.

I am on retirement with 800,000 and was hoping to release it by going the income route - but if it goes below 44 I can't do it. Bit worrying I must say.

[billd766]

I can (just) scrape in with the wind behind me at 41 baht.

Attached is this years rates from the Kbank website.

Last years was better. Sigh

Forex 2010 v4.xls

[ChiangMaiFun]

does the 65,000 income route have to come into a Thai Bank account? or is it enough to get the Embassy leetr confirming you have the equivilant in Sterling?<BR><BR>example: 1500 pounds in Sterling is about 70,000 - is this enough? OR does it have to be shown in thai baht within Thaliland? i.e. a bank statement in Thailand shwoing the income in Baht?

[billd766]

does the 65,000 income route have to come into a Thai Bank account? or is it enough to get the Embassy letter confirming you have the equivalent in Sterling?<BR><BR>example: 1500 pounds in Sterling is about 70,000 - is this enough? OR does it have to be shown in Thai baht within Thailand? i.e. a bank statement in Thailand showing the income in Baht?

You just need a letter from your pension provider (s)stating the grossincome and take that to the UK embassy.

For a trifling 3,900 baht AFAIR from the last time they will give you a letter saying that you have shown this income in GBP to them.

Take that along to the Immigration office you normally report to and they will probably go on line and get that days exchange rate which they will then work out the monthly income and you should be OK.

You also need a Thai bank account in your name only but it does not have to be stuffed with money. I normally shove in 10,000 baht for a few times and take it out again to show movement and so far I have had no problems.

[inthepink]

"Raging" inflation is something of a sensationalist statement typical of tabloid journalism in the UK.

You will not see double digit interest rates again in your lifetime. Most forecasts are for a maximum 1.25% by the end of 2011. With limited growth forecast (at circa 3%) no economy could sustain interest rate levels that you mention.

Raging inflation is 15/20% that was seen in the 1970's not 4-5% that we are seeing now. Mervyn King said:-

He said inflation was expected to remain above the 2pc target until the end of next year, while in May the Bank was forecasting below-target inflation for 2011.

Mr King said that once the effects of temporary price shocks - including the planned increase in VAT to 20pc from 17.5pc from January next year - dropped out of the annual inflation rate comparison, inflation would fall back, probably to below target.

I am fed up with King, a man full of excuses. He has two responsibilities

1. To contain inflation to TWO percent

2. To maintain stability within the UK finance system.

He has failed.on both counts.

I am fed up with hearing his excuses to curb inflation, basically for the last couple of years we have heard "although the current inflation is above target, I expect inflation to drop below target in twelve months". This is absolute bullshit. He should be sacked on this count alone. How long will he be allowed to keep saying this?

And as to stability withing the financial system. At least he has come clean and declared the current system as the "worst of all options". But if he does not have the will nor power to fix it with a better system, then he should be fired, rather than left to sit at the BoE gathering more pension rights.

But back to that Sterling issue.

The currency would be supported by an export surplus, requiring GBP's to be purchased, but

UK trade deficit widens as imports rise

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11957554

The deficit - the difference between what the UK exports and imports - grew to £3.9bn from £3.8bn in September.

No much hope there.

Then we have the possibility that the "hot money" will flow to the UK for a better return on investment. Well, no interest rate increase expected before the end of 2011. So not much hope there.

And the third possibility is that there will be some momentous political decision that will revive hope in the UK causing huge inflows of foreign investment capital to come rolling in. Yep, dream on.

Asia is the place to look to, economies are growing, investment is taking place, education standards are rising, people expect to work for a living instead of waiting for the Nanny State, there are no huge pension liabilities looming, taxes are low and the governments, by and large, stay the fuc_k out of people's attempts to start up small businesses.

What exactly would you like Mervyn King to do then? Raise interest rates now and destroy a very fragile recovery? The latest figures would seem to suggest that there is no long term danger of inflation getting out of control, hence I would say he is doing the right thing.

[JimsKnight]

Yes, why prolong the pain for years on end when a short, sharp shock is needed. The trouble is the BoE folk don't have a pair of balls between them to grasp the nettle.