Thai Property Market To Slow Down In 2004

[george]

Thailand's property market expected to slow down next year

BANGKOK -- A leading think tank of Thailand predicted the government's decision not to extend measures to stimulate the property business would put a brake on the real estate market growth next year, the Thai News Agency reported Friday.

Even though the property market would still be bolstered by the economic growth and low interest rates next year, the Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) said that the decision to end the special business tax rate at 0.11 percent on property and to resume the normal tax at 3.3 percent would affect the real estate business.

Under this pressure, property developers, particularly of housing projects, would accelerate building of houses to ensure completion of the projects by the end of this year, so that they could take advantage of high demand for houses now to increase sales as much as possible.

Meanwhile, the KRC projected that the high demand for houses would also gain momentum until the end of the year since many potential buyers would decide to purchase houses before the state stimulus measures for property business ended.

The rush to buy houses this year would be a main reason for the expected slowdown in the property market growth next year, KRC said in the latest report, adding that higher costs of developers in terms of rising prices of building materials and land, and stricter regulations on construction and consumer protection would affect the growth to a certain extent.

--Xinhuanet 2003-12-12

[dighambara]

Thai law forbids 99% of the world's populace from buying property, so there are consequences.

[translator]

what future do we have now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[en184]

Bangkok is like London was in the 1960's.

no bust in site for at least 40 years.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Economists are predicting a world wide slow down for 2004. A slow down not a slump

[the gentleman]

No signs of slowing down in Phuket...

[sabaijai]

Nor in Chiang Mai, where there is a huge land rush going on right now. Four different 5-star hotels coming in as well, The Oriental, Aman Resorts, Shangri-La and a fourth I can't remember at the moment.

Maybe 2004 will be a hair less than 2003, if you call that a slowdown. But buying in 03 seemed to be much the case of pent-up demand being released, and I think 04 new demand will be serviced at a more steady rate.

And don't forget all those Elite Card buyers jumping into the market next year!

[Guest IT Manager]

Yes true, all 1 million of them? or just a few?

The 5 stars are not coming in, they are selling royalty rights to 5 properties. That is hardly a building boom.

[monitorlizard]

I don't know what is going on down in Phuket but I got a phone call from a friend who bought a 30 year renewable lease on a 160 m2 ocean view apartment. Price? He paid $250,000 USD. And he uh, bought the last one?

Personally, I think he is nuts to pay this. He was told that he could rent it out for 200 USD per night in the high season. Again, I find this difficult to believe. Who knows? I could be wrong as I reside in Bangkok.

I really don't know about this property boom but I think it may continue while Thaksin is in power. Of course if interest rates start skyrocketing then this will effect a lot of people. Anway, the most important piece of advice I got was from my wife......"look at the buildings that are sold out and then look how many people are living in them.......just a couple". I think a bubble is forming but who knows how many years it will take before it pops?

Anyway, I am a little confused about the situation in the States as well. Walmart has a disappointing Xmas sales season while Neiman Marcus had sales through the roof. Is the divide between rich and poor growing wider?

I am no economics or money genius but I do know one thing......it is impossible to predict what is really happening in the world unless you are on the inside of the group making policy!

[maerim]

Nor in Chiang Mai, where there is a huge land rush going on right now.

Might well be a building rush going on but if you get a bit bored one day try this.

Drive out from Chiang Mai Prao rd when you get to the Maerim turn do a U turn and drive back to Chiang Mai.

On the left hand side you will see loads of estates try driving round them and see what you think of the building boom then!

Hundreds of them empty these are decent houses 3 million baht ones something is going on here.

I know that the new estates are full same as these were full when they were new just a matter of time before half of these are empty.

[Butterfly]

There are always suckers out there ready to follow bigger suckers.

It's like the bars in Pattaya. No matter how empty they are, they keep building new ones, hoping that a sucker will be there to buy one in a new location.

Does this mean there is a "bar" boom in Pattaya ? of course, not. It just means that there is a fresh flow of suckers waiting to be ripped off. New season, new suckers. Gotta love Pattaya and the bar scams. So many funny stories.

Btw, I have a bar to sell, anyone interested ?

[LondonBoy]

Having just bought a dream place on Phuket and successfully rented it out long term I hope there is a slow down -don't want too much competition!

[LondonBoy]

...and as for the boom turning to bust -well, they have been saying that about London for several years now and I remain positive.

Thailand is on the up:

Morgan Stanley report on the Economic SuperCycle

[Khutan]

No Slow down in the deeper parts of Issan.

[Khun ?]

Well it seems to me it is where the east is meeting the west.

I know more people that desire to stay long term than not.

The visa crack down which has been years to come anyways, will end up with more attractive value.

I believe the place is becoming more attractive to the westerner

who has a good retirement with the restrictions now in place.

Who wants to retire to a place that is over populated with low income farangs.

For every farang that the new visa laws effect there will be 2 asians to take there place. Economical I believe they are moving in the right direction and will be rewarded more ( money) for less ( foreign population). Believe it or not the country side of Pattaya is in a massive boom. Where else can you find for under $100,000 a decent house close to islands and beaches, 27 golf courses for 1/3

the price back home plus the same Tesco and Lotus shopping centers just a few

miles away. Weather can be a bit hot some of the time and rainy other times but

it is much better than most other places in the world for most of us. I think the move of the government of Thailand finally moving to a slower more directed

visa policy for foreigners will do it wonders to come. Not boom but decent steady growth. People that come to spend money on decent housing and retirement life do not need bars open all night and a couple million BG's to comfort them.

The health care even though not the best is attractive to many.