BURNING ISSUE

It's an election year - a time to wheel, deal and team up

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Make no mistake about it, three hot issues of the day - House-seat apportionment, the yellow-shirt protest and the next censure debate, are nothing but election year politics.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has suddenly found himself a target to be swayed by his allies and opponents alike.

Of the three issues, the Pheu Thai Party's censure is the least of Abhisit's worries. If and when the censure happens, the main opposition party is likely to attack ministers from Bhum Jai Thai Party as its real targets.

De-facto Pheu Thai leader Yingluck Shinawatra remains on friendly terms with Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, fuelling speculation that the next coalition will be made up of Pheu Thai MPs and the Democrats.

Pheu Thai MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan has vowed to lead the censure. Since he is the former commerce minister, it will be no surprise if he targets incumbent Porntiva Nakasai from Bhum Jai Thai for a grilling.

Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai are slated to fight a fierce battle to sway votes in the Northeast. The censure will give the main opposition party a head start over its rivals.

The junior coalition parties, particularly Puea Pandin, Chart Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai, have been making a lot of noise about their mutual preference to apportion 400 House seats for constituency MPs and 100 for party-list MPs.

This is an about-turn since the coalition alliance has already passed the first reading of the amended charter draft endorsing the 375-125 formula. As the bill is up for the second and third readings next month, the coalition partners have threatened to break ranks.

Is the threat real? Or is it just bargaining leverage?

Big parties, like the Democrats and Pheu Thai, will not enjoy a comparative advantage regardless of which formula, 400-100 or 375-125, is chosen.

In the proposed revamp, the Democrats will see four less MPs from southern strongholds in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung and Phang Nga. And Pheu Thai is tipped to lose MPs from northern strongholds in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Mae Hong Son and Lamphun.

The two big parties expect to compensate for their loss of constituency seats by securing a bigger share of proportionate votes for party-list seats.

Puea Pandin has no exclusive strongholds to warrant concern about the matter.

Chart Thai Pattana is very critical of the 375-125 formula, even though none of its strongholds would be hit. Bhum Jai Thai will feel the change in its two strongholds of Buri Ram and Surin but it is only giving token support for Chart Thai Pattana opposition to the move.

The coalition partners appear to have cited the apportionment issue as a pretext to bargain with the Democrats instead of having real concern about the merit or lack of merit in revamping the electoral system.

Based on a current projection of votes, certain partners might not be invited to join the next coalition. Puea Pandin is in a precarious position because a number of powerful faction leaders are poised to team up with Ruam Chart Pattana. Chart Thai Pattana is never comfortable on the opposition bench. And Bhum Jai Thai is also unwilling to get out of the coalition bandwagon.

By next week the People's Alliance for Democracy will lead the yellow shirts on to the streets to protest what it sees as government mishandling of the Thai-Cambodian border dispute.

After reaching the zenith of its popularity from 2005 to 2008, the PAD seems to be in a tight corner for failing to sway public sentiment. But beware of cornered yellow shirts - they are prone to be unpredictable.

-- The Nation 2011-01-18

It may be an election year, but don't expect any real policy proposals (other than window dressing) or debates. Televised political debates aren't a part of Asian culture, as they too readily turn to name-calling, anger outbursts, and the real possibility of defamation of character lawsuits. For that matter, neither are 'town hall meeting' - the type where everyone is welcome, and each participant has an equal opportunity to speak their minds - without fear of reprisals.

It may be an election year, but don't expect any real policy proposals (other than window dressing) or debates. Televised political debates aren't a part of Asian culture, as they too readily turn to name-calling, anger outbursts, and the real possibility of defamation of character lawsuits. For that matter, neither are 'town hall meeting' - the type where everyone is welcome, and each participant has an equal opportunity to speak their minds - without fear of reprisals.

Actually, there are televised debates during legislative elections between the main party leaders. There was also one before the 2007 Constitution referendum. You do recall when Abhisit met twice with the UDD leadership in first days of the last years in debates that were televised. The EC sponsors debates (or what could be called town hall meetings) between MP candidates in most provinces.

So I disagree that political debates are not part of Thai culture, especially for the reasons you cite.

TH

A Dem-PTP rump scenario would be interesting.

PTP have to chose a leader. That is likely to split even more MPs from it. That makes the remaining MPs easier to control and fund for the leader. The chance of leading a government also becomes unlikely. That makes the chance of being asked to become a minority part of a government more likely. That makes a reconcilliation more likely.

Korn is a very effective politician popular with those who back his party. Korn has also been about the only poltician ever to actually talk about how to do wealth redistribution in any meaningful terms. Yingluck is a Shin and trusted by Thaksin we assume.

Dem-PTP coalition with Dem PM gives a Thaksin resolution and red semi-appeasement a chance while leaving a viable alternative set of coalition partners on the opposition benches.

Now that would be a very interesting bit of political manouvering

A BJT/PTP slugfest? Only winner will be Abhisit lol

A BJT/PTP slugfest? Only winner will be Abhisit lol

BJT will also be taking on the Dems, not least in Chonburi and other bits of the East. More than just PTP stand to lose seats to BJT.

A BJT/PTP slugfest? Only winner will be Abhisit lol

BJT will also be taking on the Dems, not least in Chonburi and other bits of the East. More than just PTP stand to lose seats to BJT.

I think that is rather minor in comparison to the NE battle. Dems will still hold 180-190 next election, and will gain more in party list due to more voting for them. If BJT carves off 30 seats from PTP (or if PTP self destructs, Dems become the only viable big party left, and the major player around whom the smaller players seek to gain advantage.

A BJT/PTP slugfest? Only winner will be Abhisit lol

BJT will also be taking on the Dems, not least in Chonburi and other bits of the East. More than just PTP stand to lose seats to BJT.

I think that is rather minor in comparison to the NE battle. Dems will still hold 180-190 next election, and will gain more in party list due to more voting for them. If BJT carves off 30 seats from PTP (or if PTP self destructs, Dems become the only viable big party left, and the major player around whom the smaller players seek to gain advantage.

True for now, but it isnt very demcoratic. And it will inevitably lead to a talented power broker and a few regional lynchpins putting together a TRT part two to counter the Dems especially when the shadowy ones get fed up with the Dems. Then we are back where we started from. The timeline is likely after the next election when a Dem-BJT-CTP or Dem-PTP coalition takes over leaving whoever is in opposition to put together a little deal with all the recently returned group of 111

I think that is rather minor in comparison to the NE battle. Dems will still hold 180-190 next election, and will gain more in party list due to more voting for them. If BJT carves off 30 seats from PTP (or if PTP self destructs, Dems become the only viable big party left, and the major player around whom the smaller players seek to gain advantage.

Well, they don't even hold 180 now so it's not certain. Can't read too much into the last by-elections, people usually prefer to vote for the incumbents, so the general election could be very different.

Korn is a very effective politician popular with those who back his party. Korn has also been about the only poltician ever to actually talk about how to do wealth redistribution in any meaningful terms.

Where does he talk about this, or can you summarize?

I am just observing with interest - Abhisit is in the key seat right now and that counts a lot to his victory. I think he can choose who and what he wishes. About time he had the upper hand.

Red and yellow and pink and green, orange and purple and blue, these are the colours of the Thailand it's up to you.