Chalerm Opts Out Of Censure Debate

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Miss Taken

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Miss Taken

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Lieutenants everywhere, but no sign of a successor anywhere

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

When I met a group of Pheu Thai core members, led by the official party leader Yongyudh Vichaidit, recently, I was supposed to be listening to the official stand of the country's main opposition party.

It was the same week when rumours were spreading that Mingkwan Saengsuwan, a former PR expert and well-known "image-maker" in entertainment circles, was offering himself as the new party's chief.

Under normal circumstances, one of our news editors would have posed the question immediately to Yongyudh, whose position obviously was being threatened if the speculation had any basis to it. I was surprised myself that the question wasn't raised.

"Yongyudh sort of gestured to us not to pose the question," a news editor told me afterwards. Obviously the official head of the party wouldn't know how to respond to such an obvious question. He wasn't supposed to know what Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's real owner, thought about Mingkwan's audacious gesture.

It's a strange state of affairs for the country's single largest party. Yongyudh stays on as a reluctant leader.

The man who openly seeks the party's leadership, Chalerm Yoobamrung, has not obtained endorsement from the party's owner despite his very public rhetoric: His only political mission is to bring the ex-premier back to Thailand.

Thaksin appreciates Chalerm's public loyalty of course, but he has let it be known that he wouldn't entrust the party to this highly controversial politician. In other words, Chalerm can never make it to the party's top post. Much to Chalerm's chagrin, Mingkwan emerged as a more credible candidate, volunteering to lead the no-confidence debate against the Abhisit government with an economic punch rather than Chalerm's noisy political onslaught.

Chalerm was at first quite convinced that Thaksin would reject Mingkwan outright. But he was soon proved wrong. A group of MPs behind Mingkwan met Thaksin in Dubai to lobby for their man and to sideline Chalerm, whose leadership in the previous censure debate against Abhisit failed to put a real dent in the premier's support base.

Was Thaksin really sold on Mingkwan's promise? Not really. But he didn't have too many choices either. Pheu Thai is in disarray.

The official party leader is far from effective. The other "stars" in the frontline who have spoken on his behalf don't have the credibility to really lead the party in the next election. Factions have emerged to split the party further, all hoping to fleece Thaksin - or defect to other parties should their attempt to get financial backing from the big boss fail to materialise.

Thaksin can't be so naive as to not realise that he is being exploited by even his most trusted aides in the party. He knows that when the chips are down, he can rely only on his younger sister, Yingluck. But then, she lacks the rough-and-tumble experience of gutter politics. Besides, she has the family's business to run and the party's purse to take care of.

Mingkwan, therefore, represents a convenient substitute at a time when the party's leadership has been thrown into a state of confusion, with infighting and back-stabbing rampant. Mounting a new political showdown would be counter-productive and could further fuel calls from certain "progressive" red-shirt elements to take the movement out of Thaksin's shadow.

For Thaksin, Mingkwan may be a wild card but he is at least more manageable than Chalerm and some other lieutenants. The worst that could happen - and that's the general assessment at least for now - is that Mingkwan will put up a mediocre performance in the censure debate and Abhisit will continue to hold the upper hand in deciding when the next election will be called.

To Thaksin, that scenario isn't all bad news. At least he could say he has given everybody who has displayed loyalty a chance to come out on top. If none of them lives up to his, and the public's, expectations, too bad. Don't blame him if he eventually puts somebody else in charge of the next election campaign.

The only problem is, he doesn't know who that person is yet. I sympathise with him. He has lots and lots of lieutenants, advocates, admirers and promoters. But he doesn't have a single person qualified enough who he can trust to be his real successor.

-- The Nation 2011-01-20