Thai Baht Slide Triggers Inflation Worries

[Ulysses G.]

slim is right; its cheaper to retire in the uk than Thailand.

Not for a single man who lives in a comfortable room with bath and air-con, does not have a car and eats Thai food frequently.

It is much cheaper here if one does not expect to live high on the hog.

[Chupup]

There are few (if any) economists who think the USD will be weaker at the end of this year than stronger. The dollar is trading at historic lows against the AUD, NZD, Swiss France and Japanese Yen.

Should better and better news come out of the US over the next quarter or two (lower unemployment rate, better non-farm payrolls, stronger GDP etc) its inevitable the baht will weaken against the USD irrespective of what the BOT does.

Regrettably as a Brit I can see the exchange rate going in one direction for GBP/THB and thats down. More so in the case of the Euro.

As a result after 7 years of living here I'm off back to the UK as I can't justify the expense of living here any more when you consider the UK has free schools, free hospitals, family allowance - non of which Thailand has. A retirement visa that used to cost me less than £12,000 now works out at nearly £18,000 and I have to have that money locked in a Thai bank for 3 months so I'd need in excess of £20,000 in effect.

This wouldn't be too bad with a rising exchange rate but its not rising - its falling with little long term prospect of change.

Exactly my sentiments, i love it here even with all its faults but as soon as it hits 40/ukp i will be off and i am sure we will not be the only ones

[Thongkorn]

The pound will surge towards the end of 2011. put money on it.

[exbelg]

If foreigners are buying land in OZ and NZ,who's selling it to them :? They're not just taking it by force are they?

The point isnt who is selling the land but who [The Govt] is allowing the sale.

In the part of NZ where I come from large farms have been bought up by overseas interests and turned into forestry.

The result of this is that the gates have been closed, the workers laid off and the income the land used to produce stopped. with a predictable impact on the local economy.

In other parts of the country, one in particular a US company bought a large farm that was a popular hunting and fishing place, hunted there myself.

They then closed it to locals and turned it into a hunting and fishing lodge for their clients at prices no local could afford.

These are only two of numerous examples where overseas ownership has hurt NZrds'

Thais can buy land in other countries ? YES

so why WE cannot buy here ?

afraid of speculation and that prices might rise too much for Thai People ?

Well, who are the people who can buy land/house here ? The poor Thai farmers ? I don't think so anyway ...

Elite White Chinese Bangkok keep them poor, same as middlemen who buy up the crops and sell it for much profit to conglomerations.

So why not give the right to every farang who has been living here some years, the right to buy let's say 250 square meter of land and build his house with HIS money, not money he has to donate to his wife, with no rights whatsoever ?

[roamer]

The pound will surge towards the end of 2011. put money on it.

Define surge ? Its certainly not going to increase appreciably on the back of its schoolboy economic program that doesn't work in the real world. Any increase at all will only come about as a result of interest rates having to rise to deal with ever increasing inflation. Methinks your surge is more my trickle, and I would love to be wrong.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Sweet.

It wasn't too long ago that KBank predicted Bath to go up to 26/$. I guess these expert used Monkey Theory

I think you mean the Baht would go down to 26/$ - as since when has 26 been a higher number than 31?? OK, I accept I am being a tad pedantic - but it's my nature and adds absolutely nothing to this forum!!

[ginjag]

Certainly, you ment those 'INSANE' self protective laws.

Foreigners can't buy land - what are we going to do - take it somewhere on a plane..??

It would seem more reasonable that the Bangkok snobs don't want any Nouveau Riche, former farmers joining the country club...

Got to agree with the Thailand policy of not letting foreigners buy land.

NZ has let them buy up land and tracts have been bought and closed to access to NZers.

Hay there were whinges not long ago that the Baht was to high now it drops there are more.

Can never keep everyone happy.

Foreign ownership of land is self destructive for any nation especially poorer ones . Sudden purchases of large quantities of land , housing or agricultural , will raise prices quickly increasing costs associated with agriculture and other producers . Higher housing costs as wealthy foreigners buy more and pay higher prices without regard to the locals or what they are doing . Foreign companies are allowed to operate and can form Thai pty ltd companies and do contribute in this way through taxes etc but also create issues by paying Western employees far higher wages than the Thai people and again do not see that it creates issues . If Western Employees are to be employed in Thailand then consideration needs to used with regard to wages etc , Paying higher wages to the Thai employees must be carefully considered with regard to knock on effects and I think closer ties with the Government and the economical situation is best for locals . Selling your land to foreigners is akin to giving away your rights . I am an australian and today to much of our land has been virtually given away to foreign mining companies , foreign agricultural producers and wealthy owners of domestic and rural land . Not a good scenario for the locals nor is it for our Governments who reap a pittance in royaltis and taxes from their sell out to foreign companies . Thailand is smart and is controlling this in an intelligent way for the benefit of Thais . More power to them .

Strongly agree with both Robby and Phil regarding foreign land ownership. Allowing foreigners to own land unfettered would be extremely short-sighted, incredibly destructive to the long term health of the nation and its citizens, and the ultimate sell-out by any government official who would allow such a thing. Things are fine just the way they are.

Agree about it could be destructive for a nation, But a large amount of people who have (settled here) and put billions into the economy. Building a small home for thai wives-and kids, there is a case to be considered, for small plots of land, just big enough to build a home. NOT for the greedy land grabbers who want to buy-these are the ones who put nations into difficulties. I think small plots are not unreasonable requests.

Edited January 29, 2011 by ginjag

[loong]

Sweet.

It wasn't too long ago that KBank predicted Bath to go up to 26/$. I guess these expert used Monkey Theory

I think you mean the Baht would go down to 26/$ - as since when has 26 been a higher number than 31?? OK, I accept I am being a tad pedantic - but it's my nature and adds absolutely nothing to this forum!!

That's because 26 and 31 as used here are exchange rates for $/Baht. A move from 31 to 26 would be a weakening of the $ compared to the Baht, therefore a strengthening of the Baht. So it was just badly worded.

It would have been more clear if written "It wasn't too long ago that KBank predicted the $ to go down to 26 Baht."

[blablablabla]

If foreigners are buying land in OZ and NZ,who's selling it to them :? They're not just taking it by force are they?

The point isnt who is selling the land but who [The Govt] is allowing the sale.

In the part of NZ where I come from large farms have been bought up by overseas interests and turned into forestry.

The result of this is that the gates have been closed, the workers laid off and the income the land used to produce stopped. with a predictable impact on the local economy.

In other parts of the country, one in particular a US company bought a large farm that was a popular hunting and fishing place, hunted there myself.

They then closed it to locals and turned it into a hunting and fishing lodge for their clients at prices no local could afford.

These are only two of numerous examples where overseas ownership has hurt NZrds'

Thais can buy land in other countries ? YES

so why WE cannot buy here ?

afraid of speculation and that prices might rise too much for Thai People ?

Well, who are the people who can buy land/house here ? The poor Thai farmers ? I don't think so anyway ...

Elite White Chinese Bangkok keep them poor, same as middlemen who buy up the crops and sell it for much profit to conglomerations.

So why not give the right to every farang who has been living here some years, the right to buy let's say 250 square meter of land and build his house with HIS money, not money he has to donate to his wife, with no rights whatsoever ?

I think ... assuming a 5 to 10 % return on your investments, assuming all the risks associated with buying land in Thailand remain the same, assuming all the non-zoning laws remain the same, it seems better to rent than to buy here.

If foreigners were allowed to buy, there would be a lot more inflation (and a lot of Thais would defnitely NOT be able to buy anything). Incidentally, the poor farmer that I know has a house (about 1/2 a rai) and he seems okay. Of course, there are some foreigners buying land (when they are putting the name of a lady on the deed), which in effect does inflate prices, but you would hope that those events would be far and few between (even though foreigners have to fight and not be sucked in such a scheme (buying)).

Buying is good overseas because you can really own it and can really sell it. Here, things are not so sure. Invest in companies that give dividends of 5 to 10 % and you might be even at the end of the day, assuming all things remain the same.

[peter48]

Sign of a free market economy, when the money rolls in the locals cry.,

"How good we are."

When the money rolls out the locals cry.

''It's those nasty foreign investors taking THEIR money away that undermines our economy.

Relax those biased inane self protective laws, then foreign investment will be stable.

Till then capricious whims on the part of investors will control what passes for the Thai Economy.

Allowing any currency to be traded and floated , where America can and has controlled other economies while supporting there own is foolish . China sent America the message when it refused to float its own currency . As an Aussie I have watched our own currency value depleted and bandied about at the whims of investors ( America ) since it was floated in the 60's . Ask yourself why currency values were seperated from Gold values ? My thoughts are that the Americans ran out of gold but got control of foreign oil deposits and they fight wars today to ensure they maintain control over foreign oil supplies . To me it seems foolish that we have allowed our currencies to be tied to such a volatile and manipulated product such as oil . The sooner there is a world movement to put it back to something more solid and tangible like GOLD the better for everyone , except perhaps America . Or even better tie a currencies valuation to the national wealth and or GDP of each country .

then we might see a lot more stability and fairness across the world with regard to prices and inflation . Producers and manufacturers will then get value for their product , those who use poorer countries ie , Vietnam to produce cheap goods to resell in their own countries will no longer benefit from this as the Vietnamess Dong and other Aisan currencies would have a far more realistic value and worth . Manipulation by foreign powers would not be so easy and America could no longer keep its cheap Asian SLAVES in the POOR HOUSE manufacturing car parts , computer components and electronics goods for virtually nothing . And its useless saying that these countries will take their manufacturing elsewhere , because they cant do it in their own countries and dont have a labour source who are capable .

[peter48]

The UK is looking problematic as we face increasing unemployment, public sector cuts, decresed benefits, rising inflation - i.e. the usual things you get with the Tories. It is a hard time here but I guess we have sound democracy, advanced economy and reasonable culture based on good education and reason.

[crazydrummerpauly]

...As a result after 7 years of living here I'm off back to the UK as I can't justify the expense of living here any more when you consider the UK has free schools, free hospitals, family allowance - non of which Thailand has. A retirement visa that used to cost me less than £12,000 now works out at nearly £18,000 and I have to have that money locked in a Thai bank for 3 months so I'd need in excess of £20,000 in effect...

Combine that with the fact that immigration is doing everything in their power to discourage foreigners from staying here, it's probably the best decision.

I just renewed my Non-O visa and I was treated as if I were some kind of dangerous criminal. I had to go back 4 times with additional documents that for some reason I never required before. I still have to go back for a 5th time to see if my application for extension has been accepted.

I'm not sure if I can handle going through this bull$hit for another year. Who knows what kind of ridiculous scenario they will dream up for next year.

Yep, another weary Brit here - anyone got a firm take on WHY the overall climate has changed for many people seking visas of all kinds ? Tougher rules for Cat 'O' reported, even from Hull...and armies of repeat Tourist/60-day long-stayers being rejected at visa-run borders ? A friend who has 3 Tourist visas in the passport recently had to spend all day shuttling between consulate and embassy in Vientiane and the NongKhai friendship-bridge ( ha! ) just to get the pass back into T'land - the last one they'd give him. He was accused of working, when one look at his henna-hair and long kaftan would tell anyone he hasn't done a day's serious work in years ! Seriously, the "You working" accusation was just a ploy - what's all the clamp-down about ? Is there ANY simple explanation as to why the Thai state blows so hot-and-cold about visas ?

[Thongkorn]

The pound will surge towards the end of 2011. put money on it.

Define surge ? Its certainly not going to increase appreciably on the back of its schoolboy economic program that doesn't work in the real world. Any increase at all will only come about as a result of interest rates having to rise to deal with ever increasing inflation. Methinks your surge is more my trickle, and I would love to be wrong.

Exports are Up .manufacturing is up . the only downer was the bad weather , worst for 30 odd years and the price of oil which gives a false impression of the Economy at the moment.The pound will rise, how far who knows, I am not saying fantastically rise but it will go up towards the end of 2011. We will see.