Red Shirts Gather At Democracy Monument.

[phiphidon]

You ignore the fact that some of the protesters that were attacking the army were heavily armed.

You claim that the Abhisit government performed "murderous actions" as if they had ordered a massacre. There would have been far more than 100 deaths if that were true, as there were thousands of protesters present. You also ignore the "murderous actions" of the violent protesters who killed Colonel Romklao and other officers.

Whilst trying to avoid going over old ground I take exception to the points above;

a) Nobody knows how many of the red shirts that were killed were "heavily armed" - due mainly to the fact that the government has not released information about these cases.

b it is clear to some people that a large number (but possibly not all) of the unarmed people including red shirts/civilians/reporters/medical personnel were killed by the army despite the fact that the government has not released information about these cases.

c) when you're dead, you're dead, whether it is the result of murderous actions or a massacre, the result is still the same, regardless of the number of people involved or which "side" you represent - semantics aren't much use to these people.

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

[Buchholz]

If the counter is reset to zero, why did you bring up the results at the last election?

Call a general election and the pointers will swing to where they were at the last election OR worse for the Democrats. 165 seats compared to PPPs 233.

Of course they will. That's what happens at every election. That's why the results are always the same.

whybother - I admire your confidence in the Democrat vote. Do you honestly believe for one moment that the Democrats will improve on their performance at the last election?

Considering that Isaan and ordinary Reds everywhere are still outraged over the events of last May I would think that any shift in the vote has to benefit Pheu Thai.

50.7% - Democrats

33.0% - Pheu Thai

16.0% - Other

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

Additionally:

Since the last election, the Democrat party has increased its lawmakers in Parliament to 172 from 165 through by-elections, while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai has seen its seat tally reduced to 187 from 233 because of defections and disqualifications. Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008, and Puea Thai lacks a clear leader.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-30/thai-coalition-ahead-in-polls-ready-for-election-abhisit-says.html

[Ricardo]

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

Perhaps they're secretly being advised by RA & friends ?

[otherstuff1957]

The counter's re-set to zero at an election so these recent developments won't count for too much - if anything at all.

If the counter is reset to zero, why did you bring up the results at the last election?

Call a general election and the pointers will swing to where they were at the last election OR worse for the Democrats. 165 seats compared to PPPs 233.

So the 32 members of the BJT party who defected from PT are going back to them?

[hyperdimension]

Whilst trying to avoid going over old ground I take exception to the points above;

a) Nobody knows how many of the red shirts that were killed were "heavily armed" - due mainly to the fact that the government has not released information about these cases.

So you do admit that there were at least some who were heavily armed. It's people like Robert Amsterdam and bulmercke who are presenting things in pure black and white, that all protesters were completely innocent and the government is an oppressive and violent dictatorship. If you read Amsterdam's report he omits all of the actions of the protesters that would tarnish the innocent image that he is trying to portray, e.g. raiding of Chulalongkorn hospital, grenade launched into the crowd at Sala Daeng killing one person, et cetera.

b it is clear to some people that a large number (but possibly not all) of the unarmed people including red shirts/civilians/reporters/medical personnel were killed by the army despite the fact that the government has not released information about these cases.

Yes, maybe some unarmed people were killed by army, but we can never be sure. At least I don't see things as unrealistically black and white like how some people are trying to portray them.

c) when you're dead, you're dead, whether it is the result of murderous actions or a massacre, the result is still the same, regardless of the number of people involved or which "side" you represent - semantics aren't much use to these people.

When someone attacks you with grenade launchers and you shoot them dead, is it murder? There is also no evidence that there was an order from the government to kill protesters "in cold blood" (i.e. "kill them all") as Amsterdam seems to claim in his Address to the UDD:

"The real terrorists are the people who ordered civilians to be killed in cold blood. We know who they are and we know where they are. Thanks to our application, now so does the rest of the world."

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

If you replace "government" with "Robert Amsterdam" the statement would be 100% correct.

[hyperdimension]

Robert A. tried to invstigate and analyze, but I doubt to uncover the truth. more like anything which can be used in his case. Th value of that diminishes with the wild accusations he also makes. May I call it 'a possible misuse of logic and a collection of statements which are seemingly given extra value by grouping them without a formal proof of relation.'

With respect Rubl, you can call it what you like, but Amsterdam has provided more information than anything I have seen from the government, whether you agree with it or not. What I have seen from the government is delay, conjecture and misinformation with no real interest in investigating what happened in the months of April/May and certainly no real attempt at reconcilliation.

Did you guys also notice that there is not one mention of his client, Thaksin Shinawatra, in Amsterdam's Address to the UDD? Elsewhere, Amsterdam explained that Thaksin is just someone who loves Thailand and wants true democracy. Does everyone really believe that that is the real reason that Thaksin is paying Amsterdam to write his one-sided smear campaign pieces? e.g.:

I am honored to work with you to bring down a regime that tries to murder, imprison, and censor its way out of heeding the people’s cries for democracy. I am honored to work with you to take down a government that finds it easier to kill children, nurses, and journalists than to accept the result of an election.

He stops short of stating that once he and the red shirts do succeed in bringing down the government, it paves the way for his client to return to power.

Edited February 16, 2011 by hyperdimension

[Thai at Heart]

Robert A. tried to invstigate and analyze, but I doubt to uncover the truth. more like anything which can be used in his case. Th value of that diminishes with the wild accusations he also makes. May I call it 'a possible misuse of logic and a collection of statements which are seemingly given extra value by grouping them without a formal proof of relation.'

With respect Rubl, you can call it what you like, but Amsterdam has provided more information than anything I have seen from the government, whether you agree with it or not. What I have seen from the government is delay, conjecture and misinformation with no real interest in investigating what happened in the months of April/May and certainly no real attempt at reconcilliation.

Did you guys also notice that there is not one mention of his client, Thaksin Shinawatra, in Amsterdam's Address to the UDD? Elsewhere, Amsterdam explained that Thaksin is just someone who loves Thailand and wants true democracy. Does everyone really believe that that is the real reason that Thaksin is paying Amsterdam to write his one-sided smear campaign pieces? e.g.:

I am honored to work with you to bring down a regime that tries to murder, imprison, and censor its way out of heeding the people’s cries for democracy. I am honored to work with you to take down a government that finds it easier to kill children, nurses, and journalists than to accept the result of an election.

He stops short of stating that once he and the red shirts do succeed in bringing down the government, the way is paved for his client to return to power.

I don't really care whether it is RA or anyone else who brings this type of story to the public eye. It appears that the Dems have a few questions to answer, which will happen and the story will go away. Do you think an organisation like LI is interested in turfing out paying members? I would imagine they prefer their members to continually try to adhere to certain principles and are willing to give an organisation time to solve issues.

If the media in this country did a better job of proper journalism, it wouldn't need biased reporters/lawyers like Amsterdam to bring it to people's attention.

If the Dems are squeaky clean, they have nothing to worry about. I can't believe that we sit here and worry about someone having paid attack dogs to carry out political business. Christ, what does Fox News do?

[Emptyset]

50.7% - Democrats

33.0% - Pheu Thai

16.0% - Other

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__3910583

Additionally:

Since the last election, the Democrat party has increased its lawmakers in Parliament to 172 from 165 through by-elections, while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai has seen its seat tally reduced to 187 from 233 because of defections and disqualifications. Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008, and Puea Thai lacks a clear leader.

http://www.bloomberg...hisit-says.html

Wow, I'm glad that Abhisit admits:

The elections themselves would be a partial if not a complete answer to those grievances," Abhisit said in the interview, recorded on Jan. 28 and broadcast today. "Once the elections are done, the Red Shirts will have to admit that we've gone through a round of a democratic process, and therefore whoever wins the election should have the right to govern.

Shame he didn't think that way in, well, around 2009.

A more recent ABAC poll suggests 27.7% Dem, 18.7% PT > http://thainews.prd....id=255401240018

I'm somewhat skeptical about some of these polls though. Bangkok Pundit believes there tends to be a bias in polls towards the Democrats: http://asiancorrespo...-leaning-polls/ Also, this one has the Dems leading in the north, but PT leading in Bangkok:

Regionally, only the residents from the Northeastern part of the country choose the Puea Thai Party as their first choice while the largest numbers of those who prefer the Democrats are in the South of Thailand. As for Bangkok, the majority of 43% prefer the Puea Thai Party followed by the Democrats at 38%.

[Emptyset]

The PTP are leaderless (except for Thaksin of course). There are defections every couple of weeks. They also won some seats last time by small margins (outside of red areas). That's where I see it being most dangerous for PTP and favouring the Democrats.

I think the PTP will lose quite a few seats, mostly to BJT. The Democrats will pick up a few more, but probably not too many.

It will all come down to the coalition parties, and at the moment the coalition parties are supporting the Democrats.

That's not to say that the coalition parties won't jump ship. I don't think anyone can predict what Newin will do.

It's more likely to be CT & Banharn that switches sides, along with Puea Pandin. Would PT even want Newin back if he did jump ship again? Most probably wouldn't. Red shirts would be furious. But then some say that Mingkwan is even funded by Newin, along with Sudarat, and that Mingkwan would go to PJT if he didn't get the PT leadership. This might go some way to explaining Chalerm's hissy fit, given the enmity between him and Sudarat, he deifnitely wouldn't want her man running things, although he seems willing to accept it now. I don't know why Newin would be funding Mingkwan (if true, which it probably isn't), except that he perhaps thinks Mingkwan is so mediocre that it's bound to result in more seats for him. Let's face it, PT would do better with the Shinawatra name at the head of the party, and in terms of winning seats, I'm sure Yingluck would be a better choice than Mingkwan. But if Mingkwan really is close to Newin, could you rule out Newin coming back over to them?

Come the election campaign, which is where it matters, given there are still so many "undecideds", PT will have a leader of some sort. They've already got some policies that look will look quite attractive to a large segment of the population, it'll all come down to who the leader is and moreover, how much money they have. Will Thaksin be backing them with the full weight of his wealth and influence? Or will it be a half-hearted effort like in the recent by-elections, where PT barely had any money to spend and are currently almost bankrupt according to Matichon? Maybe Thaksin is just complacent, after all he gifted the Dems the choice of Samak as PM candidate last time, and they still lost by a distance. Anyway, I do agree the Dems are definitely best placed at the moment, in fact they should call an election now because there's still time for PT to get their act together and something to go wrong for the Dems the longer they leave it.

[phiphidon]

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

If you replace "government" with "Robert Amsterdam" the statement would be 100% correct.

In your opinion.

[Insight]

It's a shame that you gave up after reading the bs part - to be expected but worth while trying again from where he get's down to some to some suggestions for reforms i.e Paragraphs 16 -31. From there on he wanders off again in rhetoric but the paragraphs I have mentioned provide food for thought, at least to those with an open mind (and I'm not excluding you from this Rubl - see I got your "name" right at last )

It's become the default position to criticise Amsterdam rather than deal with the arguments he puts forward.To do so of course would mean abandoning an intellectually slovenly position and start tackling some hard questions.I'm the first to admit that Amsterdam is hardly an attractive personality and that the Thaksin connection weakens his credibility.But that's not enough to dismiss all aspects of his case.There are still some really important outstanding questions on the deaths which took place in Bangkok last year.The military has rejected accountability as it always does.None of the inquiries have lead anywhere.The Government's attitude has been disgraceful,assuming that there is no price to pay.They may have miscalculated.

A respected journalist summarises the position in this Reuters blog

http://blogs.reuters.com/andrew-marshall/2011/02/13/reclaiming-the-truth-in-thailand/

Comments disabled, and I could link we could link to this that and the other YouTube video which makes a complete mockery of so many of Bob's accusations, and the extremely suspect pages of the so-called "leaked" DSI report - but what's the point...?

Better to wait and see what the red shirts raid, smash, burn then deny this year - because all signs are there it's heading that way again.

[hyperdimension]

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

If you replace "government" with "Robert Amsterdam" the statement would be 100% correct.

In your opinion.

Do you think Robert Amsterdam is interested "in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May"? He (and his team, as I don't think just one person can do it alone) works actively towards twisting any facts or uncertainties into his clients favor and against the government, omitting anything that does not fit into such an agenda. That is what he and his team are paid to do - release propaganda to mould public perception for his client. I don't think there is anybody in government who is tasked to actively counteract every little half truth or lie or misconception that he makes in his writings.

There is a detailed page on Robert Amsterdam with commentary and links to articles on 2Bangkok.com: http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml

[Pi Sek]

That's all well and good, but it doesn't change the fact that the Red Shirt movement is primarily run by the UDD.

What you are talking about, social reform, is not something that has ever been addressed by the UDD (although they do complain about it) and, while the UDD continue to be the main element of promotion within the Red Shirt movement, this will continue to be the case. I've seen an idea banded about on here for a while now: Reds = PTP = Thaksin. I strongly disagree with this. I think UDD = PTP = Thaksin, but I don't think Red Shirts = UDD at all.

Many Red Shirts argue that, just because someone has a degree, they shouldn't be paid more. I would argue that previous investment in one's future should bring a higher return than someone who has not invested in their future, as it means that they are somehow less of a risk to get the job done - whether it's due to education, experience, whatever. Of course, this is open to abuse in Thailand since anyone can buy their degree from any of the universities - one of many similar stories and this open corruption must be addressed before you can address social reform. Thaksin/PTP/UDD want to move back to a more corruption-friendly constitution and seem to believe social reform can be dealt with by throwing cash at villagers. That's one of the root problems, certainly not the fix.

Like those who disagree with me, by the way, I also think that there is a lot of "very uninformed analysis". It seems we all think each other are stupid. This is all over the last 5-8 years. It's almost as if we had been indoctrinated by divisive propaganda on all sides, fed to us by those whom we know to be liars.

Pi Sek, you are missing the point. Try to be Thai for a minute, and think AROUND the topic, which is what I was trying to do in the last post, but obviously not well enough. To put it bluntly, what is the one thing that will change Thai society for sure?

If I am understanding you properly, I think I want to continue to miss the point.

[Insight]

This is where the government have really lost ground due to the denials, outright lies and general disinterest in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May.

If you replace "government" with "Robert Amsterdam" the statement would be 100% correct.

In your opinion.

Do you think Robert Amsterdam is interested "in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May"? He (and his team, as I don't think just one person can do it alone) works actively towards twisting any facts or uncertainties into his clients favor and against the government, omitting anything that does not fit into such an agenda. That is what he and his team are paid to do - release propaganda to mould public perception for his client. I don't think there is anybody in government who is tasked to actively counteract every little half truth or lie or misconception that he makes in his writings.

There is a detailed page on Robert Amsterdam with commentary and links to articles on 2Bangkok.com: http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

[hammered]

The PTP are leaderless (except for Thaksin of course). There are defections every couple of weeks. They also won some seats last time by small margins (outside of red areas). That's where I see it being most dangerous for PTP and favouring the Democrats.

I think the PTP will lose quite a few seats, mostly to BJT. The Democrats will pick up a few more, but probably not too many.

It will all come down to the coalition parties, and at the moment the coalition parties are supporting the Democrats.

That's not to say that the coalition parties won't jump ship. I don't think anyone can predict what Newin will do.

It's more likely to be CT & Banharn that switches sides, along with Puea Pandin. Would PT even want Newin back if he did jump ship again? Most probably wouldn't. Red shirts would be furious. But then some say that Mingkwan is even funded by Newin, along with Sudarat, and that Mingkwan would go to PJT if he didn't get the PT leadership. This might go some way to explaining Chalerm's hissy fit, given the enmity between him and Sudarat, he deifnitely wouldn't want her man running things, although he seems willing to accept it now. I don't know why Newin would be funding Mingkwan (if true, which it probably isn't), except that he perhaps thinks Mingkwan is so mediocre that it's bound to result in more seats for him. Let's face it, PT would do better with the Shinawatra name at the head of the party, and in terms of winning seats, I'm sure Yingluck would be a better choice than Mingkwan. But if Mingkwan really is close to Newin, could you rule out Newin coming back over to them?

Come the election campaign, which is where it matters, given there are still so many "undecideds", PT will have a leader of some sort. They've already got some policies that look will look quite attractive to a large segment of the population, it'll all come down to who the leader is and moreover, how much money they have. Will Thaksin be backing them with the full weight of his wealth and influence? Or will it be a half-hearted effort like in the recent by-elections, where PT barely had any money to spend and are currently almost bankrupt according to Matichon? Maybe Thaksin is just complacent, after all he gifted the Dems the choice of Samak as PM candidate last time, and they still lost by a distance. Anyway, I do agree the Dems are definitely best placed at the moment, in fact they should call an election now because there's still time for PT to get their act together and something to go wrong for the Dems the longer they leave it.

Mingkwan is an ambitious person in his own right. He would love to lead PTP which would give him a shot at being PM especially in a deal with other parties. It isnt that he is owned by Newin or Thaksin and in the latter lies the problem for the real boss of the party. He has already been Samaked after coming out top in an election and knows an ambitious politician like Mingkwan would happily take his support in an election campaign and then do deals excluding the big boss for power if he had to. The flip side is a monied up Mingkwan has purchased the loyalty of a lot of PTP MPs and cant just be brushed off in favour of a loyal although less appealing to MPs Chalerm or a younger family member who would also split things. That is why Abhisit sits talking about sudden elections all the time as it continually prods the wound. Whoever the leader is will lose MPs but to drive out Mingkwan would be to reduce to PTP to a very small size potentially, while to keep him could see a super samaking.

It isnt about the Dems being wel positioned. They will likely get a very similar number of seats to what they got last time. Dems and PTP territory of competition isnt really overlapping. The crux is BJT which is based in and fighting for seats almost entirely in PTP heartland (plus a few Dem eastern places). Buri Ram and parts of Surin look good BJT turf and the recent Korat defections show it looks good for them too

[Macmundi]

Whats with these pressure groups? Reds, yellows, what a bunch of losers.

[hyperdimension]

Do you think Robert Amsterdam is interested "in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May"? He (and his team, as I don't think just one person can do it alone) works actively towards twisting any facts or uncertainties into his clients favor and against the government, omitting anything that does not fit into such an agenda. That is what he and his team are paid to do - release propaganda to mould public perception for his client. I don't think there is anybody in government who is tasked to actively counteract every little half truth or lie or misconception that he makes in his writings.

There is a detailed page on Robert Amsterdam with commentary and links to articles on 2Bangkok.com: http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

Yes, maybe they already are members here and have been posting actively attempting to counteract the attacks against them, with poor results so far.

[phiphidon]

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

I really don't think he'll learn a lot, I'm pretty sure "his team" have access to the ignore button

[Buchholz]

50.7% - Democrats

33.0% - Pheu Thai

16.0% - Other

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__3910583

Additionally:

Since the last election, the Democrat party has increased its lawmakers in Parliament to 172 from 165 through by-elections, while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai has seen its seat tally reduced to 187 from 233 because of defections and disqualifications. Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008, and Puea Thai lacks a clear leader.

http://www.bloomberg...hisit-says.html

A more recent ABAC poll suggests 27.7% Dem, 18.7% PT > http://thainews.prd....id=255401240018

The poll result numbers are quite different... because the poll is on a quite different question.

It was not, "If you voted today, who would you vote for?

.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Buchholz

[Buchholz]

The PTP are leaderless (except for Thaksin of course). There are defections every couple of weeks. They also won some seats last time by small margins (outside of red areas). That's where I see it being most dangerous for PTP and favouring the Democrats.

I think the PTP will lose quite a few seats, mostly to BJT. The Democrats will pick up a few more, but probably not too many.

It will all come down to the coalition parties, and at the moment the coalition parties are supporting the Democrats.

That's not to say that the coalition parties won't jump ship. I don't think anyone can predict what Newin will do.

But then some say that Mingkwan is even funded by Newin, along with Sudarat, and that Mingkwan would go to PJT if he didn't get the PT leadership.

Mingkwan doesn't need funding from anyone. He's declared assets in the hundreds of millions.

I'm sure Yingluck would be a better choice than Mingkwan.

Given these woeful offerings, it's a nice encapsulation of just how pathetic Pheu Thai Party is...

The Dynamic Duo in action together:

Addendum: Both of them are single.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Buchholz

[Buchholz]

Do you think Robert Amsterdam is interested "in providing anything like the truth of what happened in April/May"? He (and his team, as I don't think just one person can do it alone) works actively towards twisting any facts or uncertainties into his clients favor and against the government, omitting anything that does not fit into such an agenda. That is what he and his team are paid to do - release propaganda to mould public perception for his client. I don't think there is anybody in government who is tasked to actively counteract every little half truth or lie or misconception that he makes in his writings.

There is a detailed page on Robert Amsterdam with commentary and links to articles on 2Bangkok.com: http://2bangkok.com/10/RobertAmsterdam.shtml

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

Yes, maybe they already are members here and have been posting actively attempting to counteract the attacks against them, with poor results so far.

In no small part because he and them are quite easy to disprove...

That and they return with the same previously disproven points again and again.

[Pi Sek]

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

Yes, maybe they already are members here and have been posting actively attempting to counteract the attacks against them, with poor results so far.

In no small part because he and them are quite easy to disprove...

That and they return with the same previously disproven points again and again.

Out of interest... do you think this is usually the case, or is a proportion just down to people who either have their head in the sand, trolling for an argument or are just too plain stupid to have understood the first time?

I really don't think there are that many people who are that stupid, but I do think there are a number of trolls around and there are those who "know" they're right and will put forward previously disproven untruths (e.g. unelected government is a common one) in the hope it won't get shot down this time.

But I do think that RA has representatives on here. He would be foolish not to - and it's his speciality anyway, lobbying using the Internet. I have no idea who they are, but I have noticed a few newbie posters showing up with "I don't know much about Thai politics, but from what I have seen..." quickly followed by "Thaksin was a superhero and Abhisit is a murderer". Happens every now and again, but I think there are also one or two regular posters on his payroll.

Or maybe I'm just paranoid.

[whybother]

A more recent ABAC poll suggests 27.7% Dem, 18.7% PT > http://thainews.prd....id=255401240018

Interesting numbers:

ABAC poll has recently conducted a survey asking people who they would choose to run the country if they were asked to vote in the election now, following the launch of the government's Prachawiwat policy. Surprisingly, almost half of the respondents say they had no favorite party in mind, while the Democrat Party wins the heart of most Thais with 27.7% of people say they prefer the ruling party to remain in the administration.

Meanwhile, the Puea Thai Party comes second at 18.7% followed by 12.3% of the remaining coalition parties. Over 4,300 Thai people in 28 provinces across Thailand have participated in the survey from 10 to 19 January this year.

The survey also produced distinctive results when taking demographic factors into account. 52.4 % of female respondents say they would elect the Democrat Party while 41.7% of men also agree. More than 35% of men prefer the Puea Thai Party followed by 28% of women.

"Who would they choose"

Total

Democrats: 27.7%

Puea Thai: 18.7%

Others: 12.3%

Undecided: 41.3%

Demographics (Female):

Democrats: 52.4%

Puea Thai: 28%

Others or Undecided: 19.6%

Demographics (Male):

Democrats: 41.7%

Puea Thai: 35%

Others or Undecided: 23.3%

So, either:

- of the 27.7% who would vote for the Democrats, 52.4% were Female, and 41.7% were Male, leaving 5.9% as undecided about what sex they are.

or - 80.4% of Females and 76.7% of Males is equal to 46.4% of the Total. Leaving the other 19.6% of Females and 23.3% of Males to make up the remaining 53.4% of the total.

Unless people made up their mind about who they would vote for after they were asked what sex they were ...

Edited February 16, 2011 by whybother

[ballpoint]

There's evidence his "team" are actively monitoring Thai-related forums. It's pretty fair to assume ThaiVisa doesn't escape their attention.

I really don't think he'll learn a lot, I'm pretty sure "his team" have access to the ignore button

It really wouldn't surprise me. After all, he has ignored most of the facts in his ICC submission.

[Insight]

INTERNET LOBBYISTS. Convince people of your supposed authenticity by choosing a pseudonym based on the entity you are representing combined with a adjective indicating integrity.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Insight

[Emptyset]

50.7% - Democrats

33.0% - Pheu Thai

16.0% - Other

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__3910583

Additionally:

Since the last election, the Democrat party has increased its lawmakers in Parliament to 172 from 165 through by-elections, while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai has seen its seat tally reduced to 187 from 233 because of defections and disqualifications. Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008, and Puea Thai lacks a clear leader.

http://www.bloomberg...hisit-says.html

A more recent ABAC poll suggests 27.7% Dem, 18.7% PT > http://thainews.prd....id=255401240018

The poll result numbers are quite different... because the poll is on a quite different question.

It was not, "If you voted today, who would you vote for?

.

I see. Yep, you have a good point, the one you linked presumably asked something like: "If a general election were held today who would you vote for?" and the one I linked asked people: "who they would choose to run the country if they were asked to vote in the election now?" Yes, that is quite a different question indeed. I can see how the temporal confusion could affect the result. Good spot. Keep up the good work Buchholz. Another top post. You sure don't miss a trick.

[Emptyset]

"Who would they choose"

Total

Democrats: 27.7%

Puea Thai: 18.7%

Others: 12.3%

Undecided: 41.3%

Demographics (Female):

Democrats: 52.4%

Puea Thai: 28%

Others or Undecided: 19.6%

Demographics (Male):

Democrats: 41.7%

Puea Thai: 35%

Others or Undecided: 23.3%

So, either:

- of the 27.7% who would vote for the Democrats, 52.4% were Female, and 41.7% were Male, leaving 5.9% as undecided about what sex they are.

or - 80.4% of Females and 76.7% of Males is equal to 46.4% of the Total. Leaving the other 19.6% of Females and 23.3% of Males to make up the remaining 53.4% of the total.

Unless people made up their mind about who they would vote for after they were asked what sex they were ...

Haha, yes, I was confused by the numbers too.

[Buchholz]

50.7% - Democrats

33.0% - Pheu Thai

16.0% - Other

If a general election was held today, slightly more than half of respondents surveyed by Abac poll said they would vote for the Democrat Party to form the next government, according to survey results released yesterday.

The survey showed both the ruling Democrat Party and the Opposition Pheu Thai Party would not win enough seats to allow either to form a one-party government, Abac poll director Noppadon Kannikar said.

Noppadon said the smaller parties would decide who would get to form the next government if a general election was held now.

A total of 4,312 respondents took part in the survey, conducted from September 1-25.

Of 4,312 respondents, 50.7 said they had decided to support the Democrats, 33 per cent said they would opt for Pheu Thai and 16 per cent preferred other parties.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__3910583

Additionally:

Since the last election, the Democrat party has increased its lawmakers in Parliament to 172 from 165 through by-elections, while the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai has seen its seat tally reduced to 187 from 233 because of defections and disqualifications. Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a jail sentence in 2008, and Puea Thai lacks a clear leader.

http://www.bloomberg...hisit-says.html

A more recent ABAC poll suggests 27.7% Dem, 18.7% PT > http://thainews.prd....id=255401240018

The poll result numbers are quite different... because the poll is on a quite different question.

It was not, "If you voted today, who would you vote for?

.

I see. Yep, you have a good point

Thank you for recognizing that the poll you cited adds up to only 58.7% of the electorate, whereas the previous poll I cited adds up to 99.7% of the electorate.

[Emptyset]

But I do think that RA has representatives on here. He would be foolish not to - and it's his speciality anyway, lobbying using the Internet. I have no idea who they are, but I have noticed a few newbie posters showing up with "I don't know much about Thai politics, but from what I have seen..." quickly followed by "Thaksin was a superhero and Abhisit is a murderer". Happens every now and again, but I think there are also one or two regular posters on his payroll.

Or maybe I'm just paranoid.

If Thaihome is to be believed I'm probably one of them. Perhaps that's why I'm studiously ignoring mentions of Amsterdam, so people don't connect my name with his. It's pure dissembling, of course. (Or maybe I just find Amsterdam boring and think reds would be better off without him).

[hyperdimension]

But I do think that RA has representatives on here. He would be foolish not to - and it's his speciality anyway, lobbying using the Internet. I have no idea who they are, but I have noticed a few newbie posters showing up with "I don't know much about Thai politics, but from what I have seen..." quickly followed by "Thaksin was a superhero and Abhisit is a murderer". Happens every now and again, but I think there are also one or two regular posters on his payroll.

If you looked at the 2bangkok.com page about Robert Amsterdam you'll see that it states that Amsterdam & Peroff was a client of K Social Media Consulting LLC:

How can a big time lawyer find time to write all these blog posts? The blogs are run/managed/outsourced (?) to K Social Media Consulting founded by James Kimer: ...Past clients have included Rolls-Royce, Lockheed Martin, 3M, and Amsterdam & Peroff. He has maintained successful blogs and social media campaigns on behalf of various clients since 2006...

ThaiVisa defintely fits into one of the places in which they would operate on their social media campaign of whitewashing Thaksin Shinawatra and smearing the government.

Edited February 16, 2011 by hyperdimension