PM Abhisit Shrugs Off Coup Rumor

[webfact]

PM Shrugs Off Coup Rumor

The prime minister declines to comment on a possible coup as speculated by an election panel member while affirming that he will continue working until the Lower House is dissolved.

Meanwhile, the deputy PM in charge of national security reconfirms that there will be no military coup.

Deputy Prime Minister in charge of national security Suthep Thaugsuban stated his discussion with Democrat Party members on his plan for fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra if he returns was about turning him in to law-enforcement officers.

Suthep said the rumor that he would shine Thaksin's shoes as a welcoming treat when the latter disembarks from the plane should be from a misunderstanding over his talks in southern dialect with Democrat MPs that he would wear a full business suit to receive the latter at the airport.

He then stated the Election Commission's suggested scrapping of advance voting to solve poll frauds should not be the best way out since such offenses could occur on election day anyway.

Suthep said advance voting should still be necessary for those who cannot cast their ballots on the election day.

He assured that the election will certainly take place and said he believed the House will be dissolved in early May.

The deputy premier remarked he was not aware of the planned resignation of the election commissioner in charge of political party affairs, Sodsri Sattayatham, while the rumor on a military coup is groundless.

Suthep stated the army has no wish to meddle in politics as it wants the country to carry on under democratic rule.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declined to comment on Sodsri's statement about the possibility that a silent coup will be staged to thwart the upcoming election.

The premier insisted that he will continue working until the Lower House is dissolved.

He also suggested the poll panel focus on arranging a free and fair election.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-05

[Crushdepth]

Tuesday morning...must be time for another coup rumour!

[givenall]

NO one in Thailand cares anywyas

[random]

When will people realise, there will only be a coup when the dems fail to cling on to power at the next election.

[Nisa]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

[phiphidon]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

Oh, Nisa. The clue is in the OP. There's been about 18 in Thailand so far which'll give you a bit more idea of the usual suspects.

[jayboy]

When will people realise, there will only be a coup when the dems fail to cling on to power at the next election.

Or even before the election if the military and its elite backers (one should perhaps be more accurate in saying the elite and its military backers) feel the various measures put in place will fail to secure a Democrat victory.One should also mention the possibility that the elite feels it is no longer in control of Abhisit, unlikely but possible because the PM is not a natural walkover.One should finally mention the X factor which is the gross stupidity in certain elements of the senior officer corps, which could result in some impetuous action devoid of thought and reason.

The reality is I think that Abhisit and his government have done enough to secure victory, and conversely the PTP have lost ground.In other words no need for skulduggery.I think the Thai people will give Abhisit a legitimate electoral second term.

[animatic]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

Oh, Nisa. The clue is in the OP. There's been about 18 in Thailand so far which'll give you a bit more idea of the usual suspects.

But as of the present the usual reasons for a coup are not in evidence, only the usual rumors.

[dumpling]

Maybe there is a new t.v program here ' the coup report " a weekly round up of the weeks coup- rumours and analysis.

[Greyman]

Maybe there is a new t.v program here ' the coup report " a weekly round up of the weeks coup- rumours and analysis.

I like it. It sure would beat all the soaps!

[Nisa]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

Oh, Nisa. The clue is in the OP. There's been about 18 in Thailand so far which'll give you a bit more idea of the usual suspects.

A coup isn't going to happen unless the military backs it and although I don't follow Thai politics closely, my understanding was the military and Abhisit have a decent working relationship. So, my only guess could be his own party turning on him (which wouldn't really be a coup) in order to prevent elections at this time. But again don't see the military supporting not holding elections since there is a good chance Abhisit will win. If for some reason the elections turned out bad the military can always step in after as there will almost certainly be things happening in the streets if the election results were to put the red faction in power.

[Oberkommando]

When will people realise, there will only be a coup when the dems fail to cling on to power at the next election.

It will be deemed 'necessary' if a Thaksin proxy party forms a government IMO.

Edited April 5, 2011 by Oberkommando

[Guest]

Why does the media even bother with this rubbish. Coup rumors are more frequent than skytrains.

[webfact]

Leaders of Thailand's Military Forces Jointly Deny Rumors of a Coup

The commanders of Thailand's army, navy and air force jointly held a press conference, denying rumors of a military coup before the next general election could take place.

They confirm that they will not interfere in the election or the setting up of an administration.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-05

[hammered]

When will people realise, there will only be a coup when the dems fail to cling on to power at the next election.

Or even before the election if the military and its elite backers (one should perhaps be more accurate in saying the elite and its military backers) feel the various measures put in place will fail to secure a Democrat victory.One should also mention the possibility that the elite feels it is no longer in control of Abhisit, unlikely but possible because the PM is not a natural walkover.One should finally mention the X factor which is the gross stupidity in certain elements of the senior officer corps, which could result in some impetuous action devoid of thought and reason.

The reality is I think that Abhisit and his government have done enough to secure victory, and conversely the PTP have lost ground.In other words no need for skulduggery.I think the Thai people will give Abhisit a legitimate electoral second term.

I dont think you should underestimate that certain parts of the establishment are not overly happy with Abhisit, which you touch on. These elements may prefer a say BJT or CTP PM probably though with the Dems still the major coalition partner and it may be interesting to look at how coalition formation occurs maybe with an "Abhisit is too divisive to be PM" line.

The military actually seem to be lining up behind election right now and that is probably not because PTP are going to storm to victory although a deal can never be precluded that means this outcome no longer concerns them. However, the lack of leader announcement would indicate that a deal is unlikely as well as hindering PTP.

I wouldnt want to predict election outcome although watching for any party changes may give a better indication. Persoanlly I think the Dems will have trouble retaining all their current seats as BJT will be going directly against in the east with strong local influential backing. It also looks like PTP will also struggle to hold all their seats as presumably those defecting are going to win. It will be interesting to see if this time around either big party can actually increase its base.

[Junglejumbo]

"Silent Coup" could mean many things. This described the behind the scenes manuouvering ahead of Bumjumthai joining the Democrat led coalition in Dec. 2008.

What is most likely going on today is that the Phua Thai is trying to negotiate with the army for a more comprehensive deal than that for which they currently have with the Democrats (assuming that they just want more power and money). Note that Sanoh pointed out that one of his jobs after joining ranks with Thaksin is to talk to the army bosses.

Another very likely scenario is that the army have to prepare a back up plann should Phua Thai win. Actually for Phua Thai to win outright is probably pretty difficult as they would need to win several of Bumjumthai's seats in order to do so, which according to by-election results is unlikely. However, the army still need a back up plan as clearly they're unlikely to want to lose much if any of their enourmous power. But I don't think that they can resort to a coup because it would just never be accepted and the economy is too sophisticated for them to manage.

Whatever happens it will be "silent" and behind the scenes leaving everything to hearsay and rumours.

[Crushdepth]

Thailand's military chiefs all need a t-shirt that says 'no coup today' on the front and 'maybe tomorrow' on the back.

[Oberkommando]

But I don't think that they can resort to a coup because it would just never be accepted

I lost count of how many people I heard say that during Thaksin's tenure.

[hammered]

The list of selected senators should be out by Songkhran. That will make interesting reading

[geovalin]

Leaders of Thailand's Military Forces Jointly Deny Rumors of a Coup

They confirm that they will not interfere in the election or the setting up of an administration.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-05

Telling that, they interfere!

[roamer]

But I don't think that they can resort to a coup because it would just never be accepted

I lost count of how many people I heard say that during Thaksin's tenure.

Indeed. And just who is it that would never accept a coup ? The populace ? Well they just get shot anyway. Look at the thread running on the Thai Military announcing their decision not to allow observers at the Cambodian border. In a democracy that would be a political decision, not one made by the military.

Is there anyone here who believes that the elite and military will accept an election result that was not one they wanted ? Not many I would venture which kind of makes the whole idea of an election a farce anyway.

[webfact]

Pheu Thai Senior Dismisses Possible Coup

A Pheu Thai Party veteran expresses confidence the army will not stage a coup in the run-up to the election.

Chairman of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said he believed the remark by army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha is reliable.

The army chief has said that the military will not stage a coup or intervene in politics.

Chavalit also said his party supports democratic rule.

Chavalit suggested the only factor that would prevent an early election is the government trying to spend its full term in office by claiming it still has more tasks to complete.

He said the planned distribution of a book entitled Don't Let Thailand Be Set Ablaze Again by Deputy Prime Minister in charge of national security Suthep Thaugsuban will have no impact on Pheu Thai as the book's content focuses solely on the red-shirt protests which have nothing to do with the party.

Suthep earlier said that the revenue from the sales of his book would be donated to flood victims in the South.

Chavalit ridiculed that Suthep's move resulted from his jitters over the present rallies by several political groups.

Meanwhile, director of Ruam Chat Pattana Party, Prachoen Tiyapanjanit, said his party and Puea Pandin Party will hold a press conference this Thursday to announce their political alliance and possible merger.

He said seniors and executives of the two parties will attend the event.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-05

[webfact]

Coup rumour denied; no intervention in poll

By The Nation

Supreme Commander General Songkitti Jakkabat, flanked by leaders of the Army, Navy and Air Force, on Tuesday dismissed coup speculation, saying the people should not listen to rumour about the military intervention before or after the poll.

"The military will not put pressure on any political parties or agencies and every party can campaign anywhere, including the military zones," he said.

Songkitti said an unauthorised troop movement was tantamount to an act of sedition.

He said the military had no plans to interfere with the voice of the people as shown by the balloting outcome, allaying a concern that the military might try to have a say in the government formation.

The soldiers are obliged to protect the country and safeguard the people while the balloting is under the jurisdiction of the government and relevant state mechanisms, he said.

-- The Nation 2011-04-05

[asiawatcher]

Headline - Thailand - The hub of Asian coups.

[Robby nz]

He said the planned distribution of a book entitled Don't Let Thailand Be Set Ablaze Again by Deputy Prime Minister in charge of national security Suthep Thaugsuban will have no impact on Pheu Thai as the book's content focuses solely on the red-shirt protests which have nothing to do with the party.

The red shirt protests have nothing to do with the party?????????

Did I read correctly that the red shirt leaders are all going to be on the PTP party list as MP,s?

And........

And.............

So on.........

[bulmercke]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

Oh, Nisa. The clue is in the OP. There's been about 18 in Thailand so far which'll give you a bit more idea of the usual suspects.

A coup isn't going to happen unless the military backs it and although I don't follow Thai politics closely, my understanding was the military and Abhisit have a decent working relationship. So, my only guess could be his own party turning on him (which wouldn't really be a coup) in order to prevent elections at this time. But again don't see the military supporting not holding elections since there is a good chance Abhisit will win. If for some reason the elections turned out bad the military can always step in after as there will almost certainly be things happening in the streets if the election results were to put the red faction in power.

QUOTE(Nisa):"....since there is a good chance Abhisit will win."

Really. In the last election PPP won seventy more seats than the Democrats. And only through controlloing the smaller and medium sized political parties have they been able to hold together this coalition government. In the next election Pheu Thai are quite likely to win even more seats - as a consequence of the events of last year - and the support of the minority parties at this time can no longer be guaranteed.

There will be a coup soon.

[metisdead]

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[Soutpeel]

Maybe there is a new t.v program here ' the coup report " a weekly round up of the weeks coup- rumours and analysis.

Along with the weekly "Hub" round up followed by the "Crackdown report"

[whybother]

QUOTE(Nisa):"....since there is a good chance Abhisit will win."

Really. In the last election PPP won seventy more seats than the Democrats. And only through controlloing the smaller and medium sized political parties have they been able to hold together this coalition government. In the next election Pheu Thai are quite likely to win even more seats - as a consequence of the events of last year - and the support of the minority parties at this time can no longer be guaranteed.

There will be a coup soon.

The BJT beat the PTP in a by-election last year, showing exactly what the consequences of the events of last year have done.

The minority parties also had their chance to switch their support during the censure motion (and other times), but have continued to support the Democrats. Certainly, it's not guaranteed, but why would it change if it hasn't already?

[Pi Sek]

Who is supposedly plotting the coup? People from within his own party? It is not like the Reds could pull this off.

Oh, Nisa. The clue is in the OP. There's been about 18 in Thailand so far which'll give you a bit more idea of the usual suspects.

A coup isn't going to happen unless the military backs it and although I don't follow Thai politics closely, my understanding was the military and Abhisit have a decent working relationship. So, my only guess could be his own party turning on him (which wouldn't really be a coup) in order to prevent elections at this time. But again don't see the military supporting not holding elections since there is a good chance Abhisit will win. If for some reason the elections turned out bad the military can always step in after as there will almost certainly be things happening in the streets if the election results were to put the red faction in power.

QUOTE(Nisa):"....since there is a good chance Abhisit will win."

Really. In the last election PPP won seventy more seats than the Democrats. And only through controlloing the smaller and medium sized political parties have they been able to hold together this coalition government. In the next election Pheu Thai are quite likely to win even more seats - as a consequence of the events of last year - and the support of the minority parties at this time can no longer be guaranteed.

There will be a coup soon.

I'm sure you are aware that, of the 233 PPP politicians who won seats in 2007, only 189 of them are with PTP these days. The Democrat figures have remained pretty-much the same the whole time (around the 170 mark). Of the PPP seat-winners who did not jump to PTP, most of them decided to back the Democrat-led coalition.

That means that, if one is to follow the pattern, the Democrat-led coalition will win the election with just over 240 seats (enough to form a government) and PTP with Peua Pandin (now that Sanoh has jumped over) will get 195-200 seats, with Peua Pandin certainly a prime target for Thaksin's acquisition so that PTP can approach the 230 mark. I also can't see any of the coalition parties leaving. One criticism (I would say the only justificable one) of Abhisit is his pandering to his coalition backers. I mean, what's diplomacy got to do with politics?!

However, I don't think we can follow the pattern; neither do you, but we are opposite in our conclusions. Certainly I think that "In the next election Pheu Thai are quite likely to win even more seats - as a consequence of the events of last year" is an especially funny thing to say. I'd say the exact opposite.

We can't really rely on pre-election polls either - not surprising given the ridiculous results that come from Abac's "society" polls! In the 4 months before the 2007 election, three polls were conducted and came up with the Dems winning 32-43% and PPP winning 21-39%. In the end PPP got 48.5%.

I agree that there will be a coup soon. But I don't think it will be in Thailand and I don't think you can continue to say "soon" when you have been saying "soon" for years already.