The Silent Thai Majority Holds Key To Election

[webfact]

SPECIAL

The silent majority holds key to election

By Atthayut Butrsripoom

The Nation

One in 3 voters thought to be undecided on who to vote for: poll

The so-called "silent majority" looks likely to be a force that will significantly influence - or decide - the outcome of the upcoming general election.

A recent opinion survey by Assumption University's Abac Poll found this group of voters could be as high as 32.7 per cent - nearly a third of the electorate.

The silent majority are people who have not made up their minds on how to cast their votes in the upcoming election. The survey by Abac Poll indicated several politically significant factors among their numbers.

The silent majority is bigger than the group of people who will vote for the two major parties.

According to the survey, 26.4 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat Party while 25.5 per cent said they would vote for Pheu Thai Party.

The survey found that all smaller parties jointly have supporters totally only 15.4 per cent.

As a result, the group of people who have not made up their minds will be in the spotlight and all parties would definitely try to win votes from this group.

When election day arrives, this group of people may elect to do one of following:

1. Vote for a major party.

2. Vote for a smaller party.

3. If there is a new alternative party, they may give it their votes.

4. They may just stay at home and refrain from exercising their right.

5. They may mark a "no-vote" slot on their ballot.

If most members of the silent majority make their decision in the same way, they would become a significant variable in Thai politics.

For example, if they vote for a major party, they will definitely help that party win the election and become the coalition leader. Their support may even help that party to form a single-party government.

If they vote for a smaller party or a new alternative party, that small or alternative party may have more bargaining for joining a coalition government. Or if that small or alternative party receives enough support, it may even become the coalition leader. Or if the Democrats or Pheu Thai win the election and are unable to find an acceptable choice for prime minister, the smaller party or the alternative party may get the prime minister's position with support from the silent majority.

If voters refrain from exercising their right and marking a no-vote on their ballots, while this act is different in practice it could yield a similar outcome. That is, the fourth and fifth options would not affect the election outcome.

When there are at least two parties contesting an election in a constituency, the winning candidate is not required to win more than 20 per cent of votes, as happened in some seats in the 2006 election.

Refraining from going to polling stations or taking the no-vote option would also have political significance.

This is because the People's Alliance for Democracy has been urging voters to cast 'no' votes to express their dissatisfaction with both the government and opposition.

The PAD has been campaigning for voters to mark the 'no-vote' slot in high numbers to show that the voters reject the existing political parties.

And if the PAD leaders' dream becomes true - that more than half of voters, who exercise their right, opt for a no-vote - the election will lack legitimacy and the political party which wins the election will also lack legitimacy to run the country or stay in office as the government. The no-vote outcome may prompt a new election to be held.

But it will be difficult for that scenario to come about as PAD now has little public support. Its call for a 'no-vote' vote has been dismissed as the opinion of a minority group.

Statistics from past elections showed that 'no' votes were highest in the April 2, 2006 election. At that time, only the Thai Rak Thai and some small parties contested the election because the Democrat, Chart Thai and Mahachon parties boycotted the poll.

In other elections since there has been a 'no-vote' option on ballots, but these votes amounted to less than five per cent of each poll.

Anyway, another figure that should also be considered is the percentage of voters who did not turn up to exercise their right, since the Constitution makes it a duty for all voters to vote.

Each election saw that about 25 per cent of voters declined to exercise this right.

It has yet to be seen whether the silent majority, which is reportedly the biggest group overall, will make the same kind of decision that can change the outcome of the election as predicted by the pollster.

-- The Nation 2011-04-11

[thequietman]

silent majority,eh - we have these in our village. only yesterday the silent majority accepted 200 baht each for their vote.

dont see why it would be any different in bangkok and surrounding areas.

[chmiroau]

200 bart for a vote???

Thats not worth it.

The silent majority are the ones that are not protesting, so there must be much more that 1 in 3.

[hyperdimension]

1/3 is not a majority.