Election Looms In Thailand After Songkran Holiday

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BURNING ISSUE

Election looms after the New Year break

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

If the lead-up to electoral campaigning is any indication, the upcoming vote will be a colourful race between two old rivals - the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties.

Shortly after the Songkran holiday this week, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is expected to dissolve Parliament and pave the way for a snap election within 45 to 60 days.

There has been surprisingly little change since the last general election among the players and their campaign rhetoric. The 2011 campaign is like a rematch of the 2007 race.

In the Democrat Party, key figures are the same old faces in charge of the last poll. The exception is Abhisit will head his party's campaign in place of former Democrat leader Banyat Bantadtan, who stepped down after being defeated in that ballot.

For Pheu Thai, the alliance of Thaksin Shinawatra, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Snoh Thienthong is seen as a formidable combination with a proven track record of engineering several poll victories since the heyday of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party.

Despite the persistent political polarisation between the two general elections, circumstances do differ in several aspects, so no one should rush to assume a repeat of the 2007 vote.

A number of recent surveys suggest about one in three voters are in the category of swing voters. This large number of the undecided means the outcome of the ballot is far from certain.

In comparison to the last general election, the Democrats have been making meticulous preparations designed to ensure the return of Abhisit for a second term as prime minister.

The Democrats have reason to remain upbeat for victory. But the unanswered question is: Will the Democrats' best campaign be enough to outpace Pheu Thai?

A crucial issue haunting the Democrats is the momentum of the anti-government red-shirt movement. For more than two years, the red shirts have been growing in number and strength regardless of what the Democrats say or do to appease them.

The People's Alliance for Democracy is calling for the yellow shirts to boycott the ballot with a "no-vote" campaign. Its justification for urging people to cast blank ballots is that it wants a political cleansing to get rid of rogue politicians.

The PAD-led street protests look likely to continue and may escalate if the pro-Thaksin camp manages to grab power.

Unlike the last general election, the Pheu Thai Party is not just fighting the Democrats but its allies-turned-foes as well. Two parties, Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, pose a serious threat to undermine Pheu Thai's dominance in the Northeast.

Faction leaders like Newin Chidchob, Suwat Liptapanlop, Pairoj Suwanchawee, Pinij Charusombat and Preecha Laohapongchana were all disillusioned with Thaksin's leadership. They will spearhead campaigning based on regionalism to counter Pheu Thai's popularity.

Of the 122 House seats up for grabs in the Northeast, Pheu Thai may for a first time win less than 90. A diminished win in the country's largest region will make it much more difficult for the party to defeat the Democrats.

The growing red-shirt movement is like a double-edged sword. The red shirts will surely vote for Pheu Thai but their opponents, particularly urban residents haunted by last year's riots, may cast votes for the coalition. Pheu Thai could benefit from the movement only if the red shirts outnumber the votes cast in spite against them.

In a few weeks, Thaksin has promised to unveil his candidate for the position of prime minister, solving the last puzzle in the Pheu Thai campaign preparations.

Many are excited about predicting the winning party although they may have overlooked the next big question - that a hair's breadth victory will translate into a worry if they end up in a position to form the next government.

-- The Nation 2011-04-12