Chavalit's Resignation From Pheu Thai Could Be The Start Of A Major Party Split

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Is old schemer part of a big new scheme?

By Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

Chavalit's resignation from Pheu Thai could be the start of a major party split

For once, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was clear-cut. At least it appeared so in his resignation letter to the Pheu Thai Party late yesterday afternoon. The faxed message to Pheu Thai's headquarters contained only three lines, and it simply stated that he was quitting the opposition party, in which he served as party chairman, with immediate effect.

The political divorce came out of the blue. Before Songkran, nobody had seen it coming. When rumours emerged over the weekend that he was pondering resignation because of a brewing lese majeste controversy, most people thought it was one of the same old internal Pheu Thai problems, nothing that Thaksin Shinawatra couldn't fix.

Now Thaksin has some major fixing to do. Chavalit's resignation, by itself, is unlikely to affect Pheu Thai's chances in the election, but news coming from Pheu Thai suggested his departure could be just part of something bigger and more worrisome to the man in exile.

Sources claim Chavalit could not stand the alleged offences against the monarchy by red-shirt leaders during their recent rallies. But his resignation letter gave no reason, keeping everyone guessing on what he had to say when he addresses a press conference after April 23, the day Pheu Thai is set to announce its policies in the election campaign.

According to one of his aides, Chavalit decided to jump ship after he reportedly was warned by a senior friend and security agencies of suspicious activities involving some factions of the red-shirt movement and the Pheu Thai Party. Those activities, Chavalit was told, were in danger of being construed as disloyalty to the monarchy.

Red-shirt leaders made controversial remarks at their one-year anniversary of the bloody crackdown at the Democracy Monument on April 10 and at their rally in the Bonanza Resort near Khao Yai National Park in Nakhon Ratchasima last month. Afterwards, Chavalit and Snoh Thienthong called Thaksin to express concern. Thaksin reportedly promised intervention to keep the monarchy away from pre-election politics.

Yet Chavalit was alarmed by recent events, especially after last year's bloody riots, the aide said. The decision to server ties with Pheu Thai meant Snoh's plan to join the opposition party is now all but cancelled.

Pracharaj Party leader Snoh, a close ally of Chavalit, announced on his 78th birthday that he would join Thaksin. But like Chavalit, Snoh has been alarmed by recent developments at Pheu Thai, including the idea to make Thaksin's younger sister Yingluck the party's prime-ministerial candidate.

The Chavalit-Snoh separation from Pheu Thai could be nothing more than front-page stories for a couple of days, unless, of course, they represent a bigger turmoil that has yet to materialise fully at Pheu Thai. A heartbroken Mingkwan Sangsuwan, the party's bigwig whose aspiration to become prime minister has been dashed by Thaksin, is also said to be considering leaving the party.

Mingkwan reportedly claimed to have 50-60 MPs ready to defect along with him for a new party, to be funded by a consortium of financiers. Certain sources claimed Mingkwan had gone as far as asking Chavalit and Snoh to join his new party.

In a possibly related development, former national police chief Pracha Promnok yesterday resigned as a member of the Puea Pandin Party and automatically lost his MP status. Speculation was rife that Pracha, who might be joined by four or five MPs, could be set to join a Chavalit-Mingkwan political camp.

No one knows how many Pheu Thai MPs will defect. But in a dead-heat election contest, just 10 defectors or so could seriously change the game. To several nervous Pheu Thai politicians, the possibility of party dissolution caused by charges of campaign violations might entice them to find a safer camp.

"We are fed up with being in the opposition, where we see no future. Although Thaksin is still popular in the Northeast, in some areas we had to fight and win by ourselves," one of the party MPs said.

In a phone-in to party MPs yesterday, Thaksin called for calm and warned everyone not to court trouble that could get Pheu Thai dissolved. He was tongue-in-cheek when talking about "four or five" defections, saying politicians can always come back to work together.

In other words, Thaksin sounded like someone well aware of an emerging conspiracy but trying to keep it cool.

-- The Nation 2011-04-19

[SomTumTiger]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

[SomTumTiger]

PTP Fragments, Smaller parties are formed. Dems win the most seats. 4 more years of Abhisit.

[animatic]

It is like a meteor flying too close to the sun, it sloughs off large chunks, and then flys off into space greatly diminished.

This is like the 4th pass for Thaksin's meteor and it keeps breaking up each time.

Edited April 19, 2011 by animatic

[Buchholz]

The other paper has 10 PTP MP's joining Chavalit in resigning from the Party.

Additionally, it is saying that during Thaksin's phone-in yesterday to party members, that he instructed PTP candidates to not attend Red Shirt rallies once electioneering begins.

He also declined to name his choice for PM.... still.

[animatic]

The other paper has 10 PTP MP's joining Chavalit in resigning from the Party.

Additionally, it is saying that during Thaksin's phone-in yesterday to party members, that he instructed PTP candidates to not attend Red Shirt rallies once electioneering begins.

He also declined to name his choice for PM.... still.

Like large slivers of ice falling off the Thaksin iceberg come the spring thaw. But still floating about ready for the full steam ahead HHMS (His Hubristic Monomaniacs Ship) PTP to pull a full Titanic in it's race to win the ribbon. And sink with most hands, women and little sisters first.

Edited April 19, 2011 by animatic

[Buchholz]

The other paper has 10 PTP MP's joining Chavalit in resigning from the Party.

Additionally, it is saying that during Thaksin's phone-in yesterday to party members, that he instructed PTP candidates to not attend Red Shirt rallies once electioneering begins.

He also declined to name his choice for PM.... still.

Like large slivers of ice falling off the Thaksin iceberg come the spring thaw. But still floating about ready for the full steam ahead HHMS (His Hubristic Monomaniacs Ship) PTP to pull a full Titanic in it's race to win the ribbon. And sink with most hands, women and little sisters first.

Also falling by the wayside will be Red Shirt rally attendance. Without the Red Shirt PTP candidates as well as other PTP candidates in attendance and presumably Thaksin will also cease his phone-ins to them (in a hopeless charade of trying to distance PTP from them), the incentive for people to go to them will be a lot less.

.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Buchholz

[givenall]

This is a great news, it shows that Mr. T is worried abouthis standing that he needs a to relay only on the family members that he cantrust, so the fact are being know he really don’t care about Thailand onlyabout himself and he will do and use anyone that has to get his way, so the goodand intelligent folks are finally see him as he really is and leaving him

[Insight]

so the goodand intelligent folks are finally see him as he really is and leaving him[/font][/size]

... along with Chavalit.

[janverbeem]

when already his own party members start to see Thaksin's real intentions,then it can't take long anymore before the general public will also.

[Buchholz]

from last night, just hours after Wittaya's "confidence" took a hit...

Pheu Thai Chairman Resigns

Pheu Thai Chairman and veteran politician Chavalit Yongjaiyudh has resigned from his post after he was conspicuously absent from the party's strategic meeting today.

Pheu Thai Chairman and veteran politician Chavalit Yongjaiyudh tendered his resignation from his post this evening.

He reasoned that he is unhappy with how the Monarchy is being dragged into politics.

Chavalit's decision may have to do with recent claims made by various state officials about how the party may be behind the anti-monarchy movement due to the fact that many red-shirt leaders' speeches during the rally on April 10 contained lese majeste content.

Earlier in the day, Pheu Thai MP chairman Wittaya Buranasiri commented on speculations that Chavalit and Pracharaj Party leader Sanoh Tienthong are planning to jump ship, saying that there has been no clarity on the matter.

Wittaya said the matter will be clearer after the prime minister announces House dissolution.

Wittaya revealed that he is confident that the two veteran politicians will continue to work with Pheu Thai.

Chavalit was notably absent from Pheu Thai's strategic meeting after he was assigned to chair today's conference.

Chavalit informed the party that both he and Sanoh had prior engagements, so they will not be able to make it to the meeting.

Asked about the controversial relations between the Pheu Thai Party and the red-shirt group, Wittaya said they both have different objectives but Pheu Thai's duty is to work for the people.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-18

[Buchholz]

General Chavalit opts out of Pheu Thai

BANGKOK, 18 April 2011 (NNT) – Pheu Thai Party Chairperson General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh has officially resigned from the opposition party upon concern over some individuals’ attempt to involve the monarchy with politics.

At 17.00 hrs, General Chavalit reportedly tendered his resignation letter accompanied by his signature and a copy of his identity card via fax to the Pheu Thai Party Headquarters.

His exit from the party takes effect from today onwards.

General Chavalit’s decision is speculated to have been made upon his feeling of uneasiness over the recent insult on the monarchy by core leaders of the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD). According to a close aide, he also felt uncomfortable and pressured when working with the opposition party after many issues did not turn out as agreed upon.

In a related development, five members of Pheu Thai have also followed General Chavalit’s footstep by submitting their resignation as party executives.

-- NNT 2011-04-18

Edited April 19, 2011 by Buchholz

[ratcatcher]

from last night, just hours after Wittaya's "confidence" took a hit...

Pheu Thai Chairman Resigns

Pheu Thai Chairman and veteran politician Chavalit Yongjaiyudh has resigned from his post after he was conspicuously absent from the party's strategic meeting today.

Pheu Thai Chairman and veteran politician Chavalit Yongjaiyudh tendered his resignation from his post this evening.

He reasoned that he is unhappy with how the Monarchy is being dragged into politics.

Chavalit's decision may have to do with recent claims made by various state officials about how the party may be behind the anti-monarchy movement due to the fact that many red-shirt leaders' speeches during the rally on April 10 contained lese majeste content.

Earlier in the day, Pheu Thai MP chairman Wittaya Buranasiri commented on speculations that Chavalit and Pracharaj Party leader Sanoh Tienthong are planning to jump ship, saying that there has been no clarity on the matter.

Wittaya said the matter will be clearer after the prime minister announces House dissolution.

Wittaya revealed that he is confident that the two veteran politicians will continue to work with Pheu Thai.

Chavalit was notably absent from Pheu Thai's strategic meeting after he was assigned to chair today's conference.

Chavalit informed the party that both he and Sanoh had prior engagements, so they will not be able to make it to the meeting.

Asked about the controversial relations between the Pheu Thai Party and the red-shirt group, Wittaya said they both have different objectives but Pheu Thai's duty is to work for the people.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-18

The last few words say it all. Pheu Thai's real duty is to work for THAKSIN and family and then, maybe, the people.

Chavalit and Sanoh, although political dinosaurs, can see the icebergs ahead of Thaksins ship of shame and have wisely abandoned him. At least for the time being. Perhaps wise advice has come down from higher places as to the folly of their further involvemnet with the Thaksin Family/Red Shirt Brigade.

Mingkwan, rightfully,is feeling that he has been treated shoddily by Thaksin and his gang.

The show must go on. Abhisit and co must be enjoying this.

[webfact]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

By The Nation

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ordered Pheu Thai MPs not to take part in rallies organised by the red shirts in the wake of the resignation of Pheu Thai chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, legal adviser Noppadon Patama said.

"Thaksin has been informed about and respected Chavalit's decision to quit Pheu Thai," Noppadon said.

He said he could not speculate whether Thaksin would try to convince Chavalit to return to the party's fold.

He insisted, however, that Chavalit remained on good terms with the party. He also said Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong would still team up with Pheu Thai despite Chavalit's departure.

Meanwhile Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit has vetoed Chavalit's resignation, triggering an unanswered question whether Chavalit's party membership ended.

-- The Nation 2011-04-19

[webfact]

Pheu Thai party leader says he has not signed Chavalit's resignation; dep leader Plodprasop does not believe scores of MPs will defect too /TAN_Network

[webfact]

Deputy PM Suthep refuses to comment on Chavalit's resignation from Pheu Thai; assures no 3rd hand helping Democrats set up govt /TAN_Network

[hoaker]

Finally, a competitive election with more opporunities for the Thai people who understands true Democracy.

[kumsamut]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here. Democrats party is also being ignored by the yellow now, do u say they would win this time? How about the damages that they made fro Thailand, oil, cooking oil, egg, unemployment, drugs, corruption etc.

Edited April 19, 2011 by kumsamut

[givenall]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

By The Nation

What happened!!, He can’t afford the 500 bath per day per person anymore

[drdoom6996]

Although Thaksin is still popular in the Northeast, in some areas we had to fight and win by ourselves," one of the party MPs said.

What a shame, they had to spend their own money and time. The couldn't just say

[Insight]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here. Democrats party is also being ignored by the yellow now, do u say they would win this time? How about the damages that they made fro Thailand, oil, cooking oil, egg, unemployment, drugs, corruption etc.

By "yellow", do you mean the New Politics Party? The party that, in their "stronghold" of Bangkok, received a sum total of 0 votes?

I understand that despite this, the Democrats done particularly well.

[Crushdepth]

What happened!!, He can’t afford the 500 bath per day per person anymore

He likes to use public denials to draw attention to controversial issues, using redshirt puppets to criticise unmentionable powers, then publicly denying association with such views. He can't be prosecuted but the issue has been raised and damage done.

My other favourite Thaksin "suggestinial" is "I don't want to be President".

Edited April 19, 2011 by Crushdepth

[diehard60]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

This is nothing new!!!!!!!!!!!! They will be in politcs all their life. It will be the same people as every other time. Nothing new or different.

[dude007]

It is like a meteor flying too close to the sun, it sloughs off large chunks, and then flys off into space greatly diminished.

This is like the 4th pass for Thaksin's meteor and it keeps breaking up each time.

Good comparison. And it is likely to go on and on until the party is gone into dust and vapor... Taksin is the cause of every problem, right from the start and in fact from the moment he was born, no matter how you consider it. He has finally finished, amen. God may have his soul (to start a new political rift in heaven). Time to wrap up the debris and start a new party but it will never be the TRT again!

[webfact]

Thaksin Urges on Pheu Thai MPs Despite Mounting Pressure

The self-exiled former prime minister spoke through video conference call yesterday, telling Pheu Thai Party members not to lose their composure with the mounting pressure ahead of the general election, particularly regarding the resignation of the party's chairman.

In a video-link address to a Pheu Thai Party meeting, ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said he would take no offense if any of the Pheu Thai MPs gave up their allegiance as long as they do no damage to the party.

He added that he understands that some of them are feeling pressure from the intensity that comes with the upcoming election.

Thaksin urged Pheu Thai MPs not to lose their nerve and to perform their duty to uphold democracy and keep their focus on the public's interest.

The ex-premier assured the party's members that their good deeds will be rewarded.

He also stressed that all Pheu Thai MPs and election candidates should attend the official announcement of the party's policies on April 23 at Thammasat University at Rangsit Campus.

Meanwhile, Thaksin downplayed the resignation of General Chavalit Yongchaiyuth as the Pheu Thai Party's chairman and told Pheu Thai MPs to focus on making people feel confident that the party can help solve the country's economic and political problems.

He advised the party members against vote buying or making references to the royal family during their election campaigns.

-- Tan Network 2011-04-19

[jdinasia]

The issue really is, are Sanoh and Chavalit just positioning themselves for a more powerful place as PTP allies, while distancing themselves from the violence of the reds and the strengthening ties of UDD/PTP? Not much changes in this scenario as those voting blocs would have been PTP already and now just a PTP coalition.

or

Are Chavalit and Sanoh positioning themselves for whoever offers them the best deal? If so, then it could be a crushing blow to PTP. Chavalit and Sanoh between them probably account for 40+ MP positions and Mingkwan another 10-15. If they split with Thaksin it is the death knell for the 2001/2005 buy up of regional political machines under TRT.

[scorecard]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here. Democrats party is also being ignored by the yellow now, do u say they would win this time? How about the damages that they made fro Thailand, oil, cooking oil, egg, unemployment, drugs, corruption etc.

- Cooking oil. What did the democarts actually do in terms of damage to Thailand? The electorate need to decide: do they want total price control - communism, or do they want open opportunity to make money with limited price control - capitalism? You can't have it both ways.

- Eggs, sure their idea about selling eggs didn't get much response. Is there any evidence of corruption or major damage? The electorate need to decide: do they want total price control - communism, or do they want open opportunity to make money with limited price control - capitalism? You can't have it both ways.

- Unemployment? Yes after the last major global economic crisis there was a lift in unemployment. Is it logical to blame the Democrats for this? Did Thailand in fact do quite well in terms of limiting the negative effects of the global economic crisis? Yes!

- Drugs. Did the Democrats invent yaa baa etc? No. Is there evidence (for many decades) that ruthless and powerful mafia figures (including some scaly politicians) have control of manufacturing, importing, selling drugs, people with no morals at all? Yes. On the other hand, do you want a PM who ignores the law, and encourages the police to operate outside of the law / assassinating people with no judicial process, and at the same time broadly encouraging vigilanty law and more and more lack of respect for the judicial process, in fact helping to build a lawless society? I hope not.

- Corruption. Is there some element of corruption within the Democrats? I'm sure there must be. Are Abhisit (or Korn) corrupt? I very much doubt it.

Is there a strong history of open and massive corruption within the past TRT and their rebirth parties? Yes.

[virtualtraveller]

Thaksin needs this like a hole in the head, especially at this crucial time. I bet there's lots of phone calls from Dubai today, and you can bet there are men in uniform or whatever running around with big blank cheques for the defectors eh!

With Peau Thai in such disarray at this stage in the game (no leader, no proposed PM candidate, no manifesto yet, defections and resignations) one wonders how on earth they can even dream of getting more than half the vote in the election. And they call themselves the most popular party in Thailand, ehem!

[steveromagnino]

The issue really is, are Sanoh and Chavalit just positioning themselves for a more powerful place as PTP allies, while distancing themselves from the violence of the reds and the strengthening ties of UDD/PTP? Not much changes in this scenario as those voting blocs would have been PTP already and now just a PTP coalition.

or

Are Chavalit and Sanoh positioning themselves for whoever offers them the best deal? If so, then it could be a crushing blow to PTP. Chavalit and Sanoh between them probably account for 40+ MP positions and Mingkwan another 10-15. If they split with Thaksin it is the death knell for the 2001/2005 buy up of regional political machines under TRT.

For Chalerm, Chavalit and Sanoh, this is a very smart move; if PT fails to perform, then they can probably somehow manage to be part of the government and the feeding fest that goes along with that regionally - the lifeblood of regional politics (or outskirts of a big city politics).

If PT somehow manage to get ahead (which seems very unlikely) then they can always go back; the monarchy card is a beauty since it is so easy for everyone to understand.

If ever you wanted to see some of the scumbags with no ethics who would sell their own mothers to be politicians, you'd be hard pressed to go past these three. One half senile, one thuggish, one incredibly cunning.

Right now PT is capable of probably winning somewhere in the realm of 180-190 seats based on the current house splits and ignoring the factions. If the factions break away (and all TRT acheived after the first year really was joining all the factions together and then also reducing the cost of electioneering for the factions in return for a slightly decreased share of the spoils) then PT really is looking a lot less capable.

Thaksin may nevertheless be not entirely unhappy with this; if he can push one of 'his guys' into a Dem/BJT coalition then he has a direct line to ask for what he wants (which will be some sort of settlement so he can walk away with wads of cash and possibly not face more legal action); he may be playing the PT guys to hedge his bets.

Then again, he and the red shirt leaders weren't exactly known for lack of arrogance so maybe this really is just a series of acts of stupidity too far away from him that he can't control?

The investment in getting elected has about an 18 month payback typically, minimum, so right now there must be some drained pockets on the PT side since they had an aborted illegal election in 2006; didn't get much done when they were PPP and since have been in opposition; at least a few must be thinking we are best to make sure we get a 4 year stint of earning power for sure, rather than relying on a windfall gain (which they would definitely be) should Thaksin appear again with a clean slate thanks to us, and the subsequent hatred we might encounter aimed at us, not at the Shinwatra clan.

So to speak.

That's what is driving the defections; plus having the rabid dogs like Jatuporn spouting rubbish isn't helping the more civilised PT candidates.

Also, it's all a bit of a reset soon, once the first 5 yearers come back...so best to have something to show for it, rather than risk getting shunted aside when the big wigs come back.

[edited to remove derogatory/amusing comments about Thaksin that some posters might not like]

Edited April 19, 2011 by steveromagnino

[Oberkommando]

Finally, a competitive election with more opporunities for the Thai people who understands true Democracy.

Comedy genius.