Chavalit's Resignation From Pheu Thai Could Be The Start Of A Major Party Split

[Oberkommando]

should the Fuhrer with the square face

We've been Godwinned folks!

[ToffeEFCpower]

Is there a man woman or child left prepared to die for Adolf Thaksin?

[SICHONSTEVE]

PTP Fragments, Smaller parties are formed. Dems win the most seats. 4 more years of Abhisit.

Sounds great to me!!!

PTP are having their "perfect storm" moment from which there may be no return! .

Edited April 19, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[Deeral]

The real significance or even good analysis of this is unlikely to come from a vehemently anti-redshirt (not to mention establishment brown-nosing) paper.

Edited April 19, 2011 by Deeral

[animatic]

Pheu Thai party leader says he has not signed Chavalit's resignation; dep leader Plodprasop does not believe scores of MPs will defect too /TAN_Network

Oh, great signing it might mean he agrees with it.

Best not acknowledge the 900 lb gorilla in the room.

[yumidesign]

This is a great news, it shows that Mr. T is worried abouthis standing that he needs a to relay only on the family members that he cantrust, so the fact are being know he really don’t care about Thailand onlyabout himself and he will do and use anyone that has to get his way, so the goodand intelligent folks are finally see him as he really is and leaving him

'Family members that he can TRUST' now there is a line

[animatic]

The issue really is, are Sanoh and Chavalit just positioning themselves for a more powerful place as PTP allies, while distancing themselves from the violence of the reds and the strengthening ties of UDD/PTP? Not much changes in this scenario as those voting blocs would have been PTP already and now just a PTP coalition.

or

Are Chavalit and Sanoh positioning themselves for whoever offers them the best deal? If so, then it could be a crushing blow to PTP. Chavalit and Sanoh between them probably account for 40+ MP positions and Mingkwan another 10-15. If they split with Thaksin it is the death knell for the 2001/2005 buy up of regional political machines under TRT.

For Chalerm, Chavalit and Sanoh, this is a very smart move; if PT fails to perform, then they can probably somehow manage to be part of the government and the feeding fest that goes along with that regionally - the lifeblood of regional politics (or outskirts of a big city politics).

If PT somehow manage to get ahead (which seems very unlikely) then they can always go back; the monarchy card is a beauty since it is so easy for everyone to understand.

If ever you wanted to see some of the scumbags with no ethics who would sell their own mothers to be politicians, you'd be hard pressed to go past these three. One half senile, one thuggish, one incredibly cunning.

Right now PT is capable of probably winning somewhere in the realm of 180-190 seats based on the current house splits and ignoring the factions. If the factions break away (and all TRT acheived after the first year really was joining all the factions together and then also reducing the cost of electioneering for the factions in return for a slightly decreased share of the spoils) then PT really is looking a lot less capable.

Thaksin may nevertheless be not entirely unhappy with this; if he can push one of 'his guys' into a Dem/BJT coalition then he has a direct line to ask for what he wants (which will be some sort of settlement so he can walk away with wads of cash and possibly not face more legal action); he may be playing the PT guys to hedge his bets.

Then again, he and the red shirt leaders weren't exactly known for lack of arrogance so maybe this really is just a series of acts of stupidity too far away from him that he can't control?

The investment in getting elected has about an 18 month payback typically, minimum, so right now there must be some drained pockets on the PT side since they had an aborted illegal election in 2006; didn't get much done when they were PPP and since have been in opposition; at least a few must be thinking we are best to make sure we get a 4 year stint of earning power for sure, rather than relying on a windfall gain (which they would definitely be) should Thaksin appear again with a clean slate thanks to us, and the subsequent hatred we might encounter aimed at us, not at the Shinwatra clan.

So to speak.

That's what is driving the defections; plus having the rabid dogs like Jatuporn spouting rubbish isn't helping the more civilised PT candidates.

Also, it's all a bit of a reset soon, once the first 5 yearers come back...so best to have something to show for it, rather than risk getting shunted aside when the big wigs come back.

[edited to remove derogatory/amusing comments about Thaksin that some posters might not like]

Hi Steve nice to see you here. Hope you had a fine Songkran.

And as usual a very good analysis of the possibilities of this weeks shenanigans wafting down wind from here.

Edited April 19, 2011 by animatic

[DP25]

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here.

They weren't PTP supporters to begin with, they were supporters of their local politicians that had been in power for a long time before PTP or TRT were around, and will be in power after them too. If the Thaksin connection is finally threatening their position it makes sense to go independent, secure their position again, and see what happens.

[yumidesign]

PTP Fragments, Smaller parties are formed. Dems win the most seats. 4 more years of Abhisit.

Sounds great to me!!!

PTP are having their "perfect storm" moment from which there may be no return! .

divide and conquer = go for it

[SICHONSTEVE]

Thaksin needs this like a hole in the head, especially at this crucial time. I bet there's lots of phone calls from Dubai today, and you can bet there are men in uniform or whatever running around with big blank cheques for the defectors eh!

With Peau Thai in such disarray at this stage in the game (no leader, no proposed PM candidate, no manifesto yet, defections and resignations) one wonders how on earth they can even dream of getting more than half the vote in the election. And they call themselves the most popular party in Thailand, ehem!

I suspect that the 3 defectors were biding their time waiting for the "red shirt" generals to slip up and provide them with a suitable excuse to leave the PTP without losing face so that they can do their own thing. Right on cue - they obliged and helped put another nail in the coffin of Thaksin's faltering influence (from exile). They ("red shirt" leaders) lack the required political acumen to succeed and can't stop themselves from spouting their mouth's off about things they shouldn't be mentioning let alone overtly criticising such as in the royal family, in such an outspoken way as well - you would have thought they would have learnt from their "let Bangkok burn" moment, but they clearly haven't!!!

Abhisit must be loving the inner turmoil that has beset The PTP - right before the election as well, and must have a cheshire cat sized grin from ear to ear now!!! They are making it just so easy for a man of superior intelligence and understanding of all-things-Thai that he should win at a canter now!!

Edited April 19, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE

[SICHONSTEVE]

Horsetrading maybe, call it what you like, but what the Lib Dems have done is let themselves be stomped on by the Tories so that they can have their short 'glory time' in Government until the current love-in breaks down (which it surely will) at some point in time. The difference between what they have done as against political strategising in Thailand is that they will be trounced at the next election for deserting they're manifesto promises and letting what will surely be their (ex)supporters, now, down. One of the worst things you can do in politics is to make cast iron promises on 'what you will do' and then cast them aside as if they don't matter now in seeking what is really only a bit part in power thus alienating the party followers hoping that they won't realise what's happened or that it will have slipped their minds when they come to put their X on that little bit of paper the next time round.

NO CHANCE!!!

One thing they DO have in common is that the PTP and Lib Dems have committed political suicide in their different, but equally ill conceived actions that could put them out of action for good - or for a very long time at best.

DONT play politics by playing politics in other words, or face the consequences at your peril.

[bobmac10]

I could be wrong, but I get the definite impression that the majority of the posts on this subject are from the Thailand branch of the British Conservative Party?

Your conservatism and ignorance of the facts regarding the coup of a democratically elected government are a couple of reasons why I say this.

The yellow shirts putsch which began all this trouble was clearly the work of the conservative elements in Thai politics and still they remain illegally in power.

No matter what... these are the facts.

The unswerving support for this "old money" status quo shown here in these posts pretty much sums it up.

I bet you wish Maggie had a Thai passport?

[MILT]

Finally some good news! Maybe Thailand can return to a better functioning Government and society. If the Dems win I would like to see more from Abisit or whoever is PM, in terms of bringing relief to the poorer folks all over Thailand and bring major help and focus on the people of south Thailand.

[Deeral]

Horsetrading maybe, call it what you like, but what the Lib Dems have done is let themselves be stomped on by the Tories so that they can have their short 'glory time' in Government until the current love-in breaks down (which it surely will) at some point in time. The difference between what they have done as against political strategising in Thailand is that they will be trounced at the next election for deserting they're manifesto promises and letting what will surely be their (ex)supporters, now, down. One of the worst things you can do in politics is to make cast iron promises on 'what you will do' and then cast them aside as if they don't matter now in seeking what is really only a bit part in power thus alienating the party followers hoping that they won't realise what's happened or that it will have slipped their minds when they come to put their X on that little bit of paper the next time round.

NO CHANCE!!!

One thing they DO have in common is that the PTP and Lib Dems have committed political suicide in their different, but equally ill conceived actions that could put them out of action for good - or for a very long time at best.

DONT play politics by playing politics in other words, or face the consequences at your peril.

I'm alluding to a volte face that even the Thais would be proud of. The consequences may - or may not - be different but for lack of conviction they have surly taken a leaf out of Thai politics.

the LD's gain is almost certainly short-term, (unless half of them join the Tories) and all that the current round of horse-trading does here is get a bloke a term in the Thailand parliament - however long or short that may be. At the next election or coup or whatever, the horse trading will start again - and like the LD's without any consideration for their electoral base.

[ryladie99]

The issue really is, are Sanoh and Chavalit just positioning themselves for a more powerful place as PTP allies, while distancing themselves from the violence of the reds and the strengthening ties of UDD/PTP? Not much changes in this scenario as those voting blocs would have been PTP already and now just a PTP coalition.

or

Are Chavalit and Sanoh positioning themselves for whoever offers them the best deal? If so, then it could be a crushing blow to PTP. Chavalit and Sanoh between them probably account for 40+ MP positions and Mingkwan another 10-15. If they split with Thaksin it is the death knell for the 2001/2005 buy up of regional political machines under TRT.

Wow? you do analyze this action of General Chavalit and Mr. Sanoh real well but, Thai politic is not that simple believe me More to come and the show must go on. let's watch and see. My take and an opinion..

[h90]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Why bad for Thaksin?

After the election he simply purchase the smaller parties, he did that regularly in the past.

[Buchholz]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ordered Pheu Thai MPs not to take part in rallies organised by the red shirts

Too little, too late...

Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts

[animatic]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ordered Pheu Thai MPs not to take part in rallies organised by the red shirts

Too little, too late...

Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts

Closing the barn door after the live stock have bolted.

And telling the pet wolves not to hassle the pet chickens.

Problem with pet wolves is they are NEVER really domesticated,

and chickens may lay eggs, but they are not too bright and scare easily. Foolish Thaksin may have been counting his eggs before the chickens are even fertilized

A wonderful week for metaphors!

Edited April 19, 2011 by animatic

[Deeral]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ordered Pheu Thai MPs not to take part in rallies organised by the red shirts

Too little, too late...

Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts

"Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts"

Oh dear wouldn't it be nice if life was that simple - pity some still think it is.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I could be wrong, but I get the definite impression that the majority of the posts on this subject are from the Thailand branch of the British Conservative Party?

Your conservatism and ignorance of the facts regarding the coup of a democratically elected government are a couple of reasons why I say this.

The yellow shirts putsch which began all this trouble was clearly the work of the conservative elements in Thai politics and still they remain illegally in power.

No matter what... these are the facts.

The unswerving support for this "old money" status quo shown here in these posts pretty much sums it up.

I bet you wish Maggie had a Thai passport?

You ARE wrong - I hated Magaret Thatcher more than I do that crook Thaksin Shinawatra but can see that Abhisit and his Democrats (they probably are the Tory equivalents in Thailand just as the Republicans are so, in America) are the way forward for a prosperous and stable Thailand.

He is clever, caring, understanding and knows what's needed to be done to right the wrongs that have pervaded this wonderful country over the past few years, that is now my home. Nothing is perfect and I strongly doubt that the corruption and graft that stains Thailand's reputation can be stopped or even be better controlled than it is now as it is entrenched in the fabric of society and accepted as being the norm. This aside, I hope that he can spend the next 4 years in government making the necessary decisions and law changes to revive the economy and country as a whole!!

The democrats are NOT illegaly in power!!!! Please tell me what the difference is between what they did when they horsetraded, to use Deeral's words, to form a coalition and what The Lib Dems did with the Tories in forming their's???? Every MP was elected by the people (in both cases) and if the Thai MP's betrayed their constituents by changing allegiances to attain majority rule then SO DID the Lib Dems in seeking the glorification of something that has eluded them for decades by deserting their supporters in the process of teaming up with the hated Tories.!!!

[SICHONSTEVE]

This is a great news, it shows that Mr. T is worried abouthis standing that he needs a to relay only on the family members that he cantrust, so the fact are being know he really don't care about Thailand onlyabout himself and he will do and use anyone that has to get his way, so the goodand intelligent folks are finally see him as he really is and leaving him

'Family members that he can TRUST' now there is a line

When has he EVER cared about Thailand and not HIMSELF!!!!

[SICHONSTEVE]

Pheu Thai party leader says he has not signed Chavalit's resignation; dep leader Plodprasop does not believe scores of MPs will defect too /TAN_Network

AND PIGS FLY!!!!!!

[scorecard]

I could be wrong, but I get the definite impression that the majority of the posts on this subject are from the Thailand branch of the British Conservative Party?

Your conservatism and ignorance of the facts regarding the coup of a democratically elected government are a couple of reasons why I say this.

The yellow shirts putsch which began all this trouble was clearly the work of the conservative elements in Thai politics and still they remain illegally in power.

No matter what... these are the facts.

The unswerving support for this "old money" status quo shown here in these posts pretty much sums it up.

I bet you wish Maggie had a Thai passport?

"...... a democratically elected government......" Not true!

[lungmi]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here. Democrats party is also being ignored by the yellow now, do u say they would win this time? How about the damages that they made fro Thailand, oil, cooking oil, egg, unemployment, drugs, corruption etc.

- Cooking oil. What did the democarts actually do in terms of damage to Thailand? The electorate need to decide: do they want total price control - communism, or do they want open opportunity to make money with limited price control - capitalism? You can't have it both ways.

- Eggs, sure their idea about selling eggs didn't get much response. Is there any evidence of corruption or major damage? The electorate need to decide: do they want total price control - communism, or do they want open opportunity to make money with limited price control - capitalism? You can't have it both ways.

- Unemployment? Yes after the last major global economic crisis there was a lift in unemployment. Is it logical to blame the Democrats for this? Did Thailand in fact do quite well in terms of limiting the negative effects of the global economic crisis? Yes!

- Drugs. Did the Democrats invent yaa baa etc? No. Is there evidence (for many decades) that ruthless and powerful mafia figures (including some scaly politicians) have control of manufacturing, importing, selling drugs, people with no morals at all? Yes. On the other hand, do you want a PM who ignores the law, and encourages the police to operate outside of the law / assassinating people with no judicial process, and at the same time broadly encouraging vigilanty law and more and more lack of respect for the judicial process, in fact helping to build a lawless society? I hope not.

- Corruption. Is there some element of corruption within the Democrats? I'm sure there must be. Are Abhisit (or Korn) corrupt? I very much doubt it.

Is there a strong history of open and massive corruption within the past TRT and their rebirth parties? Yes.

I agree 100%, good analysis.

[cdnvic]

When you refer to a public figure, please use their proper name, not some childish insult. One post was deleted.

[ramrod711]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

great for thailand is right, hopefully pheu thai will sink like the titanic, and take jatuporn kicking and screaming in to obscurity

[jackdawson]

4 more years of Abhisit.

5 years , isn't it ?

[Buchholz]

Thaksin orders MPs to distance from red shirts

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has ordered Pheu Thai MPs not to take part in rallies organised by the red shirts

Too little, too late...

Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts

"Thaksin = PTP = Red Shirts"

Oh dear wouldn't it be nice if life was that simple

boil the inconsequential hubris away and it's reduced to such

[BlackJack]

dont they have any aiding and abetting laws in Thailand?

how can a criminal fugitive be able to video phone in ???????

crazy

[SICHONSTEVE]

Wow - who saw this coming? I did, and have said so repeatedly. The fracturing of PTP has begun. Bad for Thaksin, but -

GREAT FOR THAILAND

Chawalit is just one man, but the people who support PTP is still here. Democrats party is also being ignored by the yellow now, do u say they would win this time? How about the damages that they made fro Thailand, oil, cooking oil, egg, unemployment, drugs, corruption etc.

Damages from selling eggs by the kilo instead of number?????? Not enough palm oil (to cook the kilogramme of eggs no doubt) due to profiteering from the hoarding of, rather than the distribution of the oil to the shops creating a shortage and causing the price to rise by 10 baht a bottle, or so.

Abhisit controls the oil price now does he?? that is ONLY affecting Thailand and not the rest of the world apparently, and the unemployment level, drug problems and corruption all came about when he took the helm 2 years ago.

Edited April 19, 2011 by SICHONSTEVE