Thaksin Over Abhisit?

[webfact]

Thaksin over Abhisit?

Bangkok residents and the middle-class population in the urban areas should be worried by recent public opinion poll results. According to these polls, it is likely the Pheu Thai Party, led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who boasts the “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Does” campaign, will emerge victorious in the next general election.

Meanwhile, the Democrat Party is focusing on social programs such as natural disaster relief, free education and loans for those with low-incomes. Unlike the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrats are campaigning on their policies, not on any one individual.

However, it is not guaranteed that the party with the most number of MP seats in the House will get to set up the government. Instead, the party which can garner the majority of MPs will get to form a coalition. As a result, the big parties will attempt to grab votes from smaller parties in the election.

Opinion polls are an important tool for political parties. Parties must conduct polls to gauge their popularity in order to put together campaign strategies. Many education institutes offer polling services. Nevertheless in many cases, the poll results do not always reflect the actual public opinion, given that only a small number of respondents actually took time to answer the questions. Still, the polls can still give some rough informative assessments of reality. Also there are many other factors such as money, which must put into the equation.

As indicated by a public poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration on a sample taken throughout the country, 23.36 percent of the respondents said that they will vote for the Pheu Thai Party while 20.20 percent will vote for the Democrats. The poll has also revealed some very interesting data: 52.87 percent of the respondents claimed to be undecided. This majority may prove to be the decisive factor in the next election.

However, this “silent majority” might actually remain silent, meaning that they are politically numb and may not vote in the next election at all. Just like the Bangkok voters, who are supposed to be the most powerful and the most informed political population, but in fact have the lowest average turnout.

Due to the influence of the mainstream media, middle-class voters in the urban areas, mainly in Bangkok, are most likely to remain confident in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and will continue to support the Democrat Party. Yet the chance that the Democrats will win the nationwide election is minuscule. Because of this, the Democrat Party has never agreed to the pledge to give the party with the most seats the right to form a government.

The Thai political landscape may change drastically after the election. On the other hand, it may remain the same in which the runner-up party gets to be the government while the party with the most votes becomes the Opposition, who might still continue to organize protests to topple the government.

Taken from Editorial Section, Kom Chad Leuk Newspaper, Page 4, May 9, 2011

Translated and Rewritten by Kongkrai Maksrivorawan

Please note that the views expressed in our "Analysis" segment are translated from local newspaper articles and do not reflect the views of the Thai-ASEAN News Network.

-- Tan Network 2011-05-09

[Asa]

Why the Bangkokian should be worried? Are we in danger from PTP getting elected?

I see no logic in that, even if PTP would get more seats, and even if PTP would become the new Government.

[janverbeem]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

[creck]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

You forgot the coup option

[janverbeem]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

You forgot the coup option

Not at all,why the need for a coup when you're in power already?

[geriatrickid]

Bangkok is a big city and its filled with a lot of poor disenfranchised people. I reckon these people outnumber those that live in the nice residential enclaves. The poor and disenfranchised may smile while they go about their menial jobs, but they will exact their revenge at the ballot box.

[whybother]

Bangkok is a big city and its filled with a lot of poor disenfranchised people. I reckon these people outnumber those that live in the nice residential enclaves. The poor and disenfranchised may smile while they go about their menial jobs, but they will exact their revenge at the ballot box.

Except most of them won't be voting in Bangkok.

Edited May 9, 2011 by whybother

[animatic]

Bangkok is a big city and its filled with a lot of poor disenfranchised people. I reckon these people outnumber those that live in the nice residential enclaves. The poor and disenfranchised may smile while they go about their menial jobs, but they will exact their revenge at the ballot box.

Except most of them won't be voting in Bangkok.

A very good point. Only those successful enough to move their adress from up country to Bangkok can vote in Bangkok. And these same people are more likely to see through Thaksins shucking and jiving than those left up country in more controlled media and social conditions. The village head men don't have the same clout on those folks moved to the big city like they had on them at home.

Regardless of the party pushing going on and the parallel denigration of their opponents, the last 2.5 years have made clear :

One functions under stress, with a smile, and keeps on doing the job, is liked and respected internationally, and is a good spokesman for the nations interests on the international stage, can play hardball with opponents like police generals, and can hold a coalition together under the most trying of circumstances. Not to mention has a Finance Minister who pulled Thailands bacon out of the fire pit after Thaksins last puppet finance minister completely ignored the world financial crisis.

( Not meaningDevakula)

On the other side;

One goes off half cocked, gets bent and angry easily, makes increasingly bad decisions, can't keep his lies straight, contradicts himself regularly and is shown to be a regular and unapologetic liar on international tv, is known to make the whole of the country to be in a bad light, and is a blatant chaser of face at all costs to any one and anything in his way, and makes ongoing self serving decisions contrary to the well being of the Thai people..

Edited May 9, 2011 by animatic

[NALAK]

Abhisit said on Thai tv tonight he would like to thank the people who put him the position he's in. guess that would be the army then.

reds win = coup

yellows win = stuff hits the fan. same old same old. expect this thread to thrive.

Pattaya is clearly a red area as workers come from NE, how many will make it back to vote, not many.

if i were a betting man i would expect Mr Abhisit in the chair for the next goverment, of course strings attached straight to Suthep, Thailands real leader.

[tigerboy]

A very good point. Only those successful enough to move their adress from up country to Bangkok can vote in Bangkok. And these same people are more likely to see through Thaksins shucking and jiving than those left up country in more controlled media and social conditions. The village head men don't have the same clout on those folks moved to the big city like they had on them at home.

Regardless of the party pushing going on and the parallel denigration of their opponents, the last 2.5 years have made clear :

One functions under stress, with a smile, and keeps on doing the job, is liked and respected internationally, and is a good spokesman for the nations interests on the international stage, can play hardball with opponents like police generals, and can hold a coalition together under the most trying of circumstances. Not to mention has a Finance Minister who pulled Thailands bacon out of the fire pit after Thaksins last puppet finance minister completely ignored the world financial crisis.

( Not meaningDevakula)

On the other side;

One goes off half cocked, gets bent and angry easily, makes increasingly bad decisions, can't keep his lies straight, contradicts himself regularly and is shown to be a regular and unapologetic liar on international tv, is known to make the whole of the country to be in a bad light, and is a blatant chaser of face at all costs to any one and anything in his way, and makes ongoing self serving decisions contrary to the well being of the Thai people..

Spot ON! Nominate for Post of the Day!

Charater ( still ! ) matters...

Unless you *like* criminals and sleeze-balls...

[whybother]

Abhisit said on Thai tv tonight he would like to thank the people who put him the position he's in. guess that would be the army then.

reds win = coup

yellows win = stuff hits the fan. same old same old. expect this thread to thrive.

Pattaya is clearly a red area as workers come from NE, how many will make it back to vote, not many.

if i were a betting man i would expect Mr Abhisit in the chair for the next goverment, of course strings attached straight to Suthep, Thailands real leader.

Don't you read the news?

The Yellows aren't contesting the election. They are campaigning for a "no-vote".

[maewrocks]

Abhisit said on Thai tv tonight he would like to thank the people who put him the position he's in. guess that would be the army then.

reds win = coup

yellows win = stuff hits the fan. same old same old. expect this thread to thrive.

Pattaya is clearly a red area as workers come from NE, how many will make it back to vote, not many.

if i were a betting man i would expect Mr Abhisit in the chair for the next goverment, of course strings attached straight to Suthep, Thailands real leader.

This poster has hit on a point that I have noted regularly. The amount of opposition supporters that don't make it home to vote due to work commitments, eg. enslaved by rich Chinese families in BKK or forced into prostitution in BKK, Pattaya or Phuket by rich Chinese families, or don't have the money to make it, means the polls are massively skewed to the Dems. The real numbers would give PT the party vote by a wide margin and would get them a few more BJT seats in Isaan too. Oh well, they don't make the rules...the rich Chinese families do!

[whybother]

This poster has hit on a point that I have noted regularly. The amount of opposition supporters that don't make it home to vote due to work commitments, eg. enslaved by rich Chinese families in BKK or forced into prostitution in BKK, Pattaya or Phuket by rich Chinese families, or don't have the money to make it, means the polls are massively skewed to the Dems. The real numbers would give PT the party vote by a wide margin and would get them a few more BJT seats in Isaan too. Oh well, they don't make the rules...the rich Chinese families do!

During the last election, a lot of companies gave their employees a day off so they could go back home and vote.

That's not going to work for everyone, but a lot of people use it.

And Thaksin (being part of a rich Chinese family) didn't change these rules while he was in power. Go and complain to him.

[geriatrickid]

Bangkok is a big city and its filled with a lot of poor disenfranchised people. I reckon these people outnumber those that live in the nice residential enclaves. The poor and disenfranchised may smile while they go about their menial jobs, but they will exact their revenge at the ballot box.

Except most of them won't be voting in Bangkok.

valid point.

So, do you think the obstacles placed in the way of people that prevents them from voting supports a peaceful resolution?

The situation reminds me of the rural south of the USA that had conditions that were not conducive to allowing afro americans access to voter registration.

It was a long struggle, but afro americans overcame that obstacle. You might want to read Martin Luther King's beautiful and moving speech, I Have A Dream.

[whybother]

So, do you think the obstacles placed in the way of people that prevents them from voting supports a peaceful resolution?

...

I don't think "obstacles (have been) placed in the way of people that prevents them from voting".

The systems and processes haven't changed with the times.

People are officially registered at a particular location, even though they may not have lived there for many years. It's very difficult to change the registration (for a number of reasons).

In Australia, you need to be registered to vote in a particular electorate. But it's relatively easy to change that registration. Australia also has the ability for "Absentee" votes ... ie voting from anywhere.

Thailand doesn't currently have the ability to manage that.

[SomTumTiger]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

LOL - Both of your scenerios are wrong. Lucky for us.

Democrat lead coalition the next 4 years. People keep screaming "civil war", and have been for years, but most Thais are too busy eating to bother fighting - or haven't you noticed lol.

[SomTumTiger]

Abhisit said on Thai tv tonight he would like to thank the people who put him the position he's in. guess that would be the army then.

reds win = coup

yellows win = stuff hits the fan. same old same old. expect this thread to thrive.

Pattaya is clearly a red area as workers come from NE, how many will make it back to vote, not many.

if i were a betting man i would expect Mr Abhisit in the chair for the next goverment, of course strings attached straight to Suthep, Thailands real leader.

The Yellows voted not to field candidates for their party - New Politics. Its always fun when noobs wade into the big boy pool without a life vest. And if anyone thinks Suthep is the "real leader" of Thailand, you are really out to lunch lol.

[thaihome]

... But it's relatively easy to change that registration. Australia also has the ability for "Absentee" votes ... ie voting from anywhere.

Thailand doesn't currently have the ability to manage that.

Thailand has had early voting allowing people to vote outside their home province for at least the last 3 elelctions that I know about. In the December 2007 election, some 3 million voted early.

TH

[janverbeem]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

LOL - Both of your scenerios are wrong. Lucky for us.

Democrat lead coalition the next 4 years. People keep screaming "civil war", and have been for years, but most Thais are too busy eating to bother fighting - or haven't you noticed lol.

I saw something completely different early last year.Or do you suggest it were their woks that ignited the fires at all those shopping malls.

Edit:spealling

Edited May 10, 2011 by janverbeem

[SomTumTiger]

^ No dangers at all?

I see two possible scenario's for the outcome of the election.

scenario 1 :Democrats will win majority and Thaksin will claim the results are bogus > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

scenario 2 : PTP together with a few other nominee party's will create a majority.The EC will,on the advice from higher up,dissolve PTP because Thaksin is involved > Red shirts will start demonstrations again with possible result a civil war.

LOL - Both of your scenerios are wrong. Lucky for us.

Democrat lead coalition the next 4 years. People keep screaming "civil war", and have been for years, but most Thais are too busy eating to bother fighting - or haven't you noticed lol.

I saw something completely different early last year.Or do you suggest it were their woks that ignited the fires at all those shopping malls.

Edit:spealling

Don't lump the actions of a few hundred paid Thaksin terrorist-mercenaries in with the VAST majority of Thais. That is disingenuous.

[hyperdimension]

Don't lump the actions of a few hundred paid Thaksin terrorist-mercenaries in with the VAST majority of Thais. That is disingenuous.

I agree. There are over 67M people in Thailand. Even 100,000 people is just 0.15% of the population of Thailand. Whilst 100,000 people may look like a lot, they are by far not representative of the entire population. A few hundred violent people would be just 0.00045% of the total population. So all that protesting and violence in the previous 2 years were not representative of the views of the people of Thailand. An election is the better way to find out what people want, and those protesters should have been a little more patient. The deaths (that they continually whine on about), injuries (some of which caused permanent disablement), property destruction and job losses could have all been prevented if they (or more accurately, Thaksin) waited for around 1 year for the election that they were so desperate for and will now be held in less than 2 months.

Edited May 10, 2011 by hyperdimension