Unless Parties Repent, Expect More Turbulence: Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Unless parties repent, expect more turbulence

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

If you believe the polls, 53 per cent of Thai voters probably remain undecided today about who they will vote for in the upcoming election. But if they are inclined to believe, as the same polls suggest, that the opposition Pheu Thai Party will get more than 23 per cent of the votes while the ruling Democrats may obtain 20.2 per cent, they might decide one way or the other.

That's because you can't sit on the fence if the two big parties are in a dead heat. You've got to decide who should get a clear majority, for otherwise you may end up with a political stalemate that could threaten peace and harmony even more.

You could of course develop your own personal political strategy. You don't necessarily have to vote for one of the two big parties to decide who should be in power after the election. You could pick one of the small or medium-sized parties, which most likely may tip the scales to decide which of the two giants will actually gain the majority in the House.

In that case, you would have to study the polls in more detail. The NIDA Poll says the Bhumjai Thai Party will get 3 per cent of the seats and the others will jointly garner about 1 per cent. Of course, the other small parties would challenge such findings. But then, if you are one of those who thinks you should vote small to act big, then you will have to decide which among them will be ready to join hands with one of the big two.

If you believe what you read and hear, Bhumjai Thai will stick with the Democrats. They have burned all their bridges with Thaksin Shinawatra's Pheu Thai. But if you also believe that, in politics, you "never say never", then, you might have to take that with a heavy pinch of salt.

Political pundits will tell you that it's the small parties - Bhumjai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana, the three PPPs, Palang Chon etc that will be the "king-makers" to decide the next government's line-up.

It may be a paradox but it's frighteningly true: The closer the fight between Pheu Thai and Democrats, the more influential the small parties - who will have a field day bargaining for Cabinet seats, concessions, contracts and/or cash money to enable the big guys to be in power.

That's probably why Thaksin Shinawatra, the "owner" of Pheu Thai, has been trumpeting the line that his party will win 270 seats in the 500-member House. A simple majority in the lower House for the current opposition party would make it unnecessary for them to woo any of the "third parties".

But behind the scenes, things aren't as smooth and clear-cut as they try to portray them to be. Pheu Thai has been making contact with some of the small parties.

The move may not be to hand out the carrots to lure them with the promise of joining Pheu Thai in the formation of the next government. Perhaps, more importantly, the exercise is to create sufficient confusion that they will distance themselves from the Democrats.

The Democrat Party can't hope to form a one-party government. Its tactics therefore are to keep the current alliance intact and to try to convince voters that even if Pheu Thai wins more seats than the Democrats, the former would face enormous obstacles in forming the next government.

Most polls give the Democrats somewhere between 180-200 seats - a good distance from the halfway point. That means it can only return to power as a coalition government - a "more-of-the-same" scenario that isn't all that appealing to many voters and a significant number of critics.

The trouble with Pheu Thai heading the new government isn't its legitimacy. It's the potential instability that could result if it carries out its pledge to bring back Thaksin and offer him amnesty from his two-year jail term.

The thorny problem with the Democrats in trying to retain power is the issue of the party that comes second trying to pre-empt the party with the biggest electorate mandate from assuming power.

Whether you like it or not, no matter what the polls say, the July 3 election will inevitably be entangled with the "Thaksin Factor."

Sad to say, whatever party you decide to vote for, your hope for a return to normalcy will be dashed. Unless the major parties are ready to sacrifice in significant ways, the new round of ballot-casting will just be a prelude to a new chapter of political turbulence.

Everyone is duty-bound to prevent that worst-case scenario from even being considered by the most adventurous political mavericks.

-- The Nation 2011-05-12

[chmiroau]

Months and months ago I was saying that the best thing for Thailand would be a bipartisan style government, with equal power on both sides. This should have been implemented after the coup in 2006, and should possibly still be in force.

This style of government needs to be implemented as soon as possible as the current thinking is not working and will defiantly end in bloodshed again, Blood has already been spilt.

Political peace cannot be achieved unless there is a time for the damage caused over the last 5 years to heal its self.

Get ready for more trouble folks. It is coming.

[charmonman]

Months and months ago I was saying that the best thing for Thailand would be a bipartisan style government, with equal power on both sides. This should have been implemented after the coup in 2006, and should possibly still be in force.

This style of government needs to be implemented as soon as possible as the current thinking is not working and will defiantly end in bloodshed again, Blood has already been spilt.

Political peace cannot be achieved unless there is a time for the damage caused over the last 5 years to heal its self.

Get ready for more trouble folks. It is coming.

I would say the damage has occurred over the last 10 years, ever since Thaksin was first elected PM. The damage will continue as long as this entirely self-serving individual remains popular and involved in politics.