Absolving Thaksin Will Put Heat On Yingluck

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Absolving Thaksin will put heat on Yingluck

By TULSATHIT TAPTIM,

SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON

THE NATION

Yingluck Shinawatra is selling like hot cakes. In fact, she may be so hot it is beyond even the initial imagination of her big brother Thaksin, who in an interview given before she was officially launched as a new political product expressed ambivalence about marketing her this way.

The interview, published by Matichon yesterday, was given before all poll results embraced her as the next big thing. Expressing uncertainty as to whether he should allow his sister to become Thailand's first female prime minister, he said he should have known from the very beginning that his political rivals would bear down on her like a pack of wolves.

"I pity her," Thaksin told Matichon. He essentially confirmed The Nation's recent analysis that even though Yingluck was No 1 on Pheu Thai's party list, other high-ranking party-list candidates could take her place as prime-ministerial contender if need be. The names of Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit and the disgruntled Mingkwan Saengsuwan were mentioned.

But can Pheu Thai backtrack on Yingluck's nomination after putting her photos on all campaign billboards and posters and already having her received on rally stages as "Thailand's first female leader"? Theoretically speaking, if the party were to score a comfortable election victory, it could do anything, including switching the prime-ministerial nominee.

Now that early signs have shown Yingluck to be more than capable of leading Pheu Thai to a significant triumph, has Thaksin's apparent anxiety about her well-being eased? In normal circumstances, it would be a no-brainer to let her be and make political history. The reality, however, is complicated, demanding - and probably dangerous.

A prime minister Yingluck would almost certainly have to see through an amnesty bill, which is purportedly intended to bring back peace but which could inadvertently create a new political storm. She has managed to deflect a little of the attention concerning the amnesty issue to Chalerm Yoobamrung, but with Thaksin among the beneficiaries of the bill, Yingluck would sooner or later find herself under fire.

Yingluck has been a sensation over the past few days, but that has a lot to do with the fact she's a newbie. With the right promotion, being a new face helps in a political campaign. She has been a much-sought-after interview subject, and doubters within Pheu Thai have begun to feel thankful she's the flag bearer. When real political life begins, though, experience counts and a lack of it could kill.

Thaksin confirmed through Twitter yesterday evening that the interview had been given before Yingluck was officially nominated on the party list. He seemed concerned that his ambivalence would be taken out of hand or interpreted as direct political interference. His tweets seemed to signal that there was no way back for her at the moment. The realities involving Yingluck, however, have not changed.

She has been giving basic answers to expected questions. "Who will be the government or the prime minister is for the future." "Our country has suffered enough and all I want to see is a clean and fair election." "I am my brother's clone in terms of his visions and thinking." "My job is to play by democratic rules, rules I hope others will respect."

In a way, she has sounded like her rival Abhisit Vejjajiva, who could testify that such lines barely work when the going gets extremely heated. While he tried to downplay the latest poll results, which pointed toward the possibility of role reversal after July 3, in one corner of his mind Abhisit may have already started thinking about how to blunt those remarks.

-- The Nation 2011-05-24

[virtualtraveller]

A fresh face like this will certainly invigorate the Red camp, so you can expect a lot of excitement around her. When things have calmed down and the opposition start picking holes in her inexperience the significant number of fence sitters might find it difficult to have any confidence in her. It depends alot on what she says, what Thaksin says on her behalf and what Chalerm says on both their behalf. One slip of the square faced tongue could undermine her goodwill.

Samak was his own man with his own following. If the opposition can successfully point out that Prime Minister Yingluck is going to be fraught with problems and very detrimental to the country the moment she starts pushing through an amnesty bill, those who think before they vote might realise. An Amnesty bid will likely be long-winded, bitterly fought over and ultimately unable to bring back Thaksin in the short term.

[samurai]

A fresh face like this will certainly invigorate the Red camp, so you can expect a lot of excitement around her. When things have calmed down and the opposition start picking holes in her inexperience the significant number of fence sitters might find it difficult to have any confidence in her. It depends alot on what she says, what Thaksin says on her behalf and what Chalerm says on both their behalf. One slip of the square faced tongue could undermine her goodwill.

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

[rubl]

A fresh face like this will certainly invigorate the Red camp, so you can expect a lot of excitement around her. When things have calmed down and the opposition start picking holes in her inexperience the significant number of fence sitters might find it difficult to have any confidence in her. It depends alot on what she says, what Thaksin says on her behalf and what Chalerm says on both their behalf. One slip of the square faced tongue could undermine her goodwill.

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

The non-PTP parties don't have to do anything it seems. With all confusing and contradicting news items the PTP, UDD, Thaksin spread around there's absolutely no need

[pedro01]

It'll be interesting to see how she compares to the ascent & descent of Sarah Palin...

[JurgenG]

Let's face it, when I was asking Abhisit's main support group (Bangkok middle aged house wives) what was the main reason they support him, the first answer was always he is good looking.

Then when Sarah Palin was almost elected vice president of the United States, it was obviously not for her brain.

In this new world order, I predict a very bright future to Yingluck.

Many of my Thai male friends make less and less secret who they are going to vote for and I sense it's with a feeling of revenge for their wives supporting Abhisit

[rubl]

Let's face it, when I was asking Abhisit's main support group (Bangkok middle aged house wives) what was the main reason they support him, the first answer was always he is good looking.

Then when Sarah Palin was almost elected vice president of the United States, it was obviously not for her brain.

In this new world order, I predict a very bright future to Yingluck.

Many of my Thai male friends make less and less secret who they are going to vote for and I sense it's with a feeling of revenge for their wives supporting Abhisit

From my contacts with Thai professionals (mostly ladies, but not all) in the IT departments of various local banks here, PTP doesn't stand a chance. Of course like with the predictions of some, I didn't do a solid, scientifically sound and mathematically correct poll. Just my opinion based on what I see and hear, in that small part of the world which is mine

[JurgenG]

Let's face it, when I was asking Abhisit's main support group (Bangkok middle aged house wives) what was the main reason they support him, the first answer was always he is good looking.

Then when Sarah Palin was almost elected vice president of the United States, it was obviously not for her brain.

In this new world order, I predict a very bright future to Yingluck.

Many of my Thai male friends make less and less secret who they are going to vote for and I sense it's with a feeling of revenge for their wives supporting Abhisit

From my contacts with Thai professionals (mostly ladies, but not all) in the IT departments of various local banks here, PTP doesn't stand a chance. Of course like with the predictions of some, I didn't do a solid, scientifically sound and mathematically correct poll. Just my opinion based on what I see and hear, in that small part of the world which is mine

Of course, the ladies vote for Abhisit.

Honestly that's probably the only reason why he will stay as the leaders of the democrats until after the election. Now that the men have defected to Yinluck, they can afford to lose the ladies' vote as well.

[gemini81]

If people are retarded enough to vote for this virgin politician, then they get what they deserve. Silly to base a vote on surface and appearance only, but silly not to dismiss that as a possibility, considering the mentality here.

[rubl]

Let's face it, when I was asking Abhisit's main support group (Bangkok middle aged house wives) what was the main reason they support him, the first answer was always he is good looking.

Then when Sarah Palin was almost elected vice president of the United States, it was obviously not for her brain.

In this new world order, I predict a very bright future to Yingluck.

Many of my Thai male friends make less and less secret who they are going to vote for and I sense it's with a feeling of revenge for their wives supporting Abhisit

From my contacts with Thai professionals (mostly ladies, but not all) in the IT departments of various local banks here, PTP doesn't stand a chance. Of course like with the predictions of some, I didn't do a solid, scientifically sound and mathematically correct poll. Just my opinion based on what I see and hear, in that small part of the world which is mine

Of course, the ladies vote for Abhisit.

Honestly that's probably the only reason why he will stay as the leaders of the democrats until after the election. Now that the men have defected to Yinluck, they can afford to lose the ladies' vote as well.

I didn't say the ladies will vote for k. Abhisit, nor do I think they will. I'm only saying amongst those I checked (both male/female) PTP doesn't stand a chance.

You seem somewhat more confident in your opinion, maybe your group of Thai male friends is sufficient large to justify that confidence

[JurgenG]

A very large group : my two best Thai drinking buddies.

But usually we are quite accurate in our prediction.

!

[ianbaggie]

A very large group : my two best Thai drinking buddies.

But usually we are quite accurate in our prediction.

!

All hail - the great sage Jurgen!!! if PTP loses will you be crawling back to "das bunker" ?? Interesting to see that 2 thai friends is considered a "very large group". Have you also considered that if Thaksin returns the first thing he will do is revoke the Visas of ALL Farang like he did last time. Married, kids, single - all will HAVE to leave the country after 3 months. and you want him back - wake up Herr Jurgen - wake up!!

[rubl]

Still doesn't explain the 'posse with real people amongst the paid claqueurs', young warrior

Because there where claqueurs too. Waiting in a corner to get rid of their flower garlands and putting them around the neck of the candidate. Or those who hold up all the banners and cardboards. A candidate surrounded by 15 people holding up exactly the same poster or similar scenes. The impressions I saw were for all parties nearly the same. It just varied little bit how many fingers they hold up.

And there was a bigger difference, some actually attracted a crowd and others a few and some nobody.

Nice answer, but not to my question. You mentioned 'posse with real people amongst the paid claqueurs'. You seem now to mix posse and claqueurs as same/similar and quietly ignore the 'paid' part you stated. Ah well, at least the ones who didn't attract anybody didn't have either a posse or claqueurs

Now maybe we can go back on topic "Absolving Thaksin puts heat on Yingluck"

[Samuian]

If people are retarded enough to vote for this virgin politician, then they get what they deserve. Silly to base a vote on surface and appearance only, but silly not to dismiss that as a possibility, considering the mentality here.

Well, well, well poor Thailand, if this is going to happen again, after Somchai and Samak.... some people might need more than just a thai massage treatment.

[thaikahuna]

<snip>With the right promotion, being a new face helps in a political campaign. She has been a much-sought-after interview subject, and doubters within Pheu Thai have begun to feel thankful she's the flag bearer. When real political life begins, though, experience counts and a lack of it could kill.<snip>

One needs look no further than Obama...........

[Misterwhisper]

Fresh face or not, well-liked or not, potential first female PM or not, breaking out in tears or not, she is a Shinawatra. Don't get fooled by your own sentiments and affections towards her pretty face. She WILL answer to her big brother. HE will pull all strings. There is no escape for her from the all-powerful ties of a Thai-Chinese family and the dominant figure within it. My opinion anyway. Honestly, I find the current euphoria about her rather unsettling, if not worrisome.

[OzMick]

How do they expect to carry a vote for Thaksin's amnesty? How many PT members will be able to say they do not have family/financial connections that would force them to recuse themselves from the vote?

[Ricardo]

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

I don't understand why you appear to believe ("will not happen") the opposition-parties will not start questioning Yingluck's lack of political experience ? Surely it is an obvious point-of-attack for them ?

[samurai]

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

I don't understand why you appear to believe ("will not happen") the opposition-parties will not start questioning Yingluck's lack of political experience ? Surely it is an obvious point-of-attack for them ?

Because Abhisit is the polite and nice guy. During the the pre-election champaign time nothing like that will coming.

Once she is PM everyone will be happy and friendly and give her her first 100 days. And of course the new opposition will not be like the old opposition, but indulgent, constructive, helpful and supportive.

What you think? That they act like little pesky sore losers?

[Ricardo]

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

I don't understand why you appear to believe ("will not happen") the opposition-parties will not start questioning Yingluck's lack of political experience ? Surely it is an obvious point-of-attack for them ?

Because Abhisit is the polite and nice guy. During the the pre-election champaign time nothing like that will coming.

Once she is PM everyone will be happy and friendly and give her her first 100 days. And of course the new opposition will not be like the old opposition, but indulgent, constructive, helpful and supportive.

What you think? That they act like little pesky sore losers?

I agree that Abhisit is nice & polite. Wish there were more new-generation politicians like him. And hope that there eventually will be.

But this is Thai politics, and there are a lot of old dinosaurs in the game, are they all as polite as the current PM, I doubt it ?

And surely we're discussing pre-election hustings, not what might possibly happen, after 3rd July ?

[samurai]

What could the opposition do? Start picking holes in her inexperience?

Will not happen. All Abhisit can do is to show his face around, just like Yingluck.

But she will get the fence sitter.

I don't understand why you appear to believe ("will not happen") the opposition-parties will not start questioning Yingluck's lack of political experience ? Surely it is an obvious point-of-attack for them ?

Because Abhisit is the polite and nice guy. During the the pre-election champaign time nothing like that will coming.

Once she is PM everyone will be happy and friendly and give her her first 100 days. And of course the new opposition will not be like the old opposition, but indulgent, constructive, helpful and supportive.

What you think? That they act like little pesky sore losers?

I agree that Abhisit is nice & polite. Wish there were more new-generation politicians like him. And hope that there eventually will be.

But this is Thai politics, and there are a lot of old dinosaurs in the game, are they all as polite as the current PM, I doubt it ?

And surely we're discussing pre-election hustings, not what might possibly happen, after 3rd July ?

I thought that too, that it is about the pre-election time.

But after I send my reply to virtualtraveller I noticed that he spoke of "the opposition" and me too. He spoke also of Prime Minister Yingluck. And you describes the others as the the opposition-parties.

It is like we would have a running parliament already.

So I am unsure about what time we are talking here.

And beside competition in local constituencies, on party list level the other smaller parties might have not big interests to picking holes into someone who might be the future coalition partner.

[rubl]

Because Abhisit is the polite and nice guy. During the the pre-election champaign time nothing like that will coming.

Once she is PM everyone will be happy and friendly and give her her first 100 days. And of course the new opposition will not be like the old opposition, but indulgent, constructive, helpful and supportive.

What you think? That they act like little pesky sore losers?

I agree that Abhisit is nice & polite. Wish there were more new-generation politicians like him. And hope that there eventually will be.

But this is Thai politics, and there are a lot of old dinosaurs in the game, are they all as polite as the current PM, I doubt it ?

And surely we're discussing pre-election hustings, not what might possibly happen, after 3rd July ?

I thought that too, that it is about the pre-election time.

But after I send my reply to virtualtraveller I noticed that he spoke of "the opposition" and me too. He spoke also of Prime Minister Yingluck. And you describes the others as the the opposition-parties.

It is like we would have a running parliament already.

So I am unsure about what time we are talking here.

And beside competition in local constituencies, on party list level the other smaller parties might have not big interests to picking holes into someone who might be the future coalition partner.

Virtualtraveller wrote

"If the opposition can successfully point out that Prime Minister Yingluck is going to be fraught with problems and very detrimental to the country the moment she starts pushing through an amnesty bill, those who think before they vote might realise."

that clearly suggests issues recognized before voting. Read it again

[CHANGOVER]

Fresh face or not, well-liked or not, potential first female PM or not, breaking out in tears or not, she is a Shinawatra. Don't get fooled by your own sentiments and affections towards her pretty face. She WILL answer to her big brother. HE will pull all strings. There is no escape for her from the all-powerful ties of a Thai-Chinese family and the dominant figure within it. My opinion anyway. Honestly, I find the current euphoria about her rather unsettling, if not worrisome.

I agree so let's hope they keep the SHINAWATRA's out of the trough. Sing up!

Edited May 24, 2011 by CHANGOVER

[Ricardo]

I don't understand why you appear to believe ("will not happen") the opposition-parties will not start questioning Yingluck's lack of political experience ? Surely it is an obvious point-of-attack for them ?

Because Abhisit is the polite and nice guy. During the the pre-election champaign time nothing like that will coming.

Once she is PM everyone will be happy and friendly and give her her first 100 days. And of course the new opposition will not be like the old opposition, but indulgent, constructive, helpful and supportive.

What you think? That they act like little pesky sore losers?

I agree that Abhisit is nice & polite. Wish there were more new-generation politicians like him. And hope that there eventually will be.

But this is Thai politics, and there are a lot of old dinosaurs in the game, are they all as polite as the current PM, I doubt it ?

And surely we're discussing pre-election hustings, not what might possibly happen, after 3rd July ?

I thought that too, that it is about the pre-election time.

But after I send my reply to virtualtraveller I noticed that he spoke of "the opposition" and me too. He spoke also of Prime Minister Yingluck. And you describes the others as the the opposition-parties.

It is like we would have a running parliament already.

So I am unsure about what time we are talking here.

And beside competition in local constituencies, on party list level the other smaller parties might have not big interests to picking holes into someone who might be the future coalition partner.

Yes of course, until the election, all the parties are opposing each other, including the two big ones, Pheu Thai & the Democrats.

So I couldn't see why they would refrain from trying to expose Yingluck's relative-inexperience, as a potential PM, until after the election. There must be many very-experienced politicians, including some disappointed contenders-for-the leadership within her own party, who would be happy to see her under-pressure.

Even PM-Abhisit, polite and nice though he may be, must surely be expected to try to demonstrate her inexperience to the voters, which is perhaps why he wanted to debate with her on TV, in however gentlemanly a fashion ? Sensible of her to avoid it !

As to whether minor parties would have any scruples, about highlighting her weaknesses, well I have my doubts. The coalition-negotiations which usually follow an election can see the most amazing flip-flops in position, as with the aftermath of the December-2007 election, when parties who had promised pre-election to refuse to ally with PPP, nevertheless were afterwards persuaded to do so by former-PM Samak.

[jdinasia]

Only 10 days left until party affiliations are set in stone ----- will we see any more PTP defections?

[drdoom6996]

Fresh face or not, well-liked or not, potential first female PM or not, breaking out in tears or not, she is a Shinawatra. Don't get fooled by your own sentiments and affections towards her pretty face. She WILL answer to her big brother. HE will pull all strings. There is no escape for her from the all-powerful ties of a Thai-Chinese family and the dominant figure within it. My opinion anyway. Honestly, I find the current euphoria about her rather unsettling, if not worrisome.

I second that!

[bartender100]

Fresh face or not, well-liked or not, potential first female PM or not, breaking out in tears or not, she is a Shinawatra. Don't get fooled by your own sentiments and affections towards her pretty face. She WILL answer to her big brother. HE will pull all strings. There is no escape for her from the all-powerful ties of a Thai-Chinese family and the dominant figure within it. My opinion anyway. Honestly, I find the current euphoria about her rather unsettling, if not worrisome.

I second that!

Unfortunately all the Thai's are talking about her, its something not seen before in Thai politics, she represents a real change in the view of Thai's I have spoken to, she will win by a landslide mile.

Then the fun will begin

[sbk]

off topic bickering deleted, trollish baiting deleted.

I really have no idea what is wrong with you people that you cannot carry on a civil debate about the topic at hand without resorting to this kind of behavior but I would suggest to all of you that you slow it down or you will find your accounts suspended until AFTER the elections.

[samurai]

Unfortunately all the Thai's are talking about her, its something not seen before in Thai politics, she represents a real change in the view of Thai's I have spoken to, she will win by a landslide mile.

Then the fun will begin

I got a similar impression.