Forecasters monitor weather systems in the Caribbean, East Pacific Ocean for developments

[News_Editor]

Forecasters monitor weather systems in the Caribbean, East Pacific Ocean for developments

2011-06-06 05:16:21 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Forecasters are monitoring two separate weather systems in the East Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea for possible developments that could make both of them tropical depressions.

As of Sunday afternoon, a low pressure area is located about 725 kilometers (450 miles) south of Acapulco, a major sea port on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance increased on Sunday.

"Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two," said NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake. "There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it drifts to the northwest."

Unofficial weather models show the system will likely become a tropical depression by Monday afternoon, and could soon after strengthen into a tropical storm. Some unofficial weather models also show the system could strengthen into a hurricane days later, although this remains subject to change.

If the disturbance in the East Pacific does develop into a tropical storm, forecasters will name it Adrian. It would make it the first named storm of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season, which officially began on May 15.

Meanwhile, forecasters are also monitoring a broad low pressure system in the Caribbean Sea, located about 241 kilometers (150 miles) southwest of Jamaica. This system, however, has less chances of developing into a tropical depression.

"Some gradual development of this large disturbance is possible over the next couple of days as winds in the middle levels of the atmosphere briefly become somewhat favorable," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart. "There is a medium chance, 40 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours."

Stewart said an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area on Monday afternoon if conditions remain favorable for development. "Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause flash floods and mud slides over portions of Haiti and Jamaica as the system moves slowly toward the northwest or north over the next few days," he said.

If the system does develop into a named storm, forecasters would name it Arlene. It would make it the first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1st.

In March, an extremely rare subtropical cyclone formed in the South Atlantic near southeastern Brazil. Arani, as it was called, briefly made landfall in Brazil but caused no casualties.

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