Pheu Thai Still Leading

[webfact]

Pheu ThaI still leading

By The Nation

Opinion polls, which Democrat Party senior officials were reluctant to believe, continue to tip the Pheu Thai Party as the frontrunner in the July 3 election - the latest indicating that Pheu Thai would win about half (51.5 per cent) of the vote for party-list candidates.

The Suan Dusit Poll, released yesterday, showed that a majority of 102,994 people interviewed across the country would vote for Pheu Thai and 34 per cent for the ruling Democrat Party.

The poll was conducted from June 4 until Saturday June 18 in all the 375 constituencies.

It found that only 2.4 per cent of the respondents have yet to decide on which party to vote for, while 1.4 per cent said they would cast a ballot on election day but would vote for nobody.

According to the survey, Pheu Thai would get 64 seats for its party-list while the Democrats would get 43 seats. Bhum Jai Thai is third, but it would get only four seats on the party-list. The election on July 3 will be for 500 seats of the House of Representatives, of which 375 represent constituencies while 125 come from the proportion of votes for the party.

The Suan Dusit Poll did not conduct the survey for constituency candidates.

Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said he did not pay attention to opinion polls and they did not disturb him or his party.

"I will not argue with the polls and people should not pay much attention to them," he said. "Let us see the real result of the election on the day and we will know which poll is more accurate."

Suthep said he was still confident the poll did not reflect the real vote for the Democrats.

Another survey conducted on June 13 by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) with a sampling of 1,247 indicated the same trend as the Suan Dusit poll.

It suggested Pheu Thai would win 30.5 per cent while the Democrats would get 17.4 per cent in the entire country.

Both surveys indicated Pheu Thai had support from many regions, except the South, a traditional Democrat stronghold. Pheu Thai got only some 10 per cent of vote in the South, according to Suan Dusit and NIDA polls.

In Bangkok, where many academics have tipped the urban middle class will support the Democrats, the polls indicated Pheu Thai would get significant support from voters.

-- The Nation 2011-06-20

[canuckamuck]

Has a date been picked for the coup yet?

[geovalin]

Fortunately ALL the media support the Dem's. If not, they'd have only 3.56 % nation wide.

[whybother]

The thing that surprises me about this poll is that a week ago 44% were undecided. If find it hard to believe that 42% made up there minds in a week, and with 2 weeks still to go, only 2% are undecided.

[whybother]

Fortunately ALL the media support the Dem's. If not, they'd have only 3.56 % nation wide.

Yep. All the media support the Dem's. That's why you never see Yingluck in the news.

[animatic]

Even a large poll can be slanted.

If you instruct your pollsters to go to migrant worker shacks,

or rice fields and ask mostly motorcycle taxi drivers, of course you will get one slant on your response.

Methodology is EVERYTHING in making a poll say what you want.

Also we are likely seeing a good percentage of the 'New Candidate Bounce effect considering the time frame.

No one states of PTP numbers are RISING over time, or settling after an early boost.

Statstics, lies and damned lies.

I'll believe the real poll numbers at least have some validity.

[random]

Even a large poll can be slanted.

If you instruct your pollsters to go to migrant worker shacks,

or rice fields and ask mostly motorcycle taxi drivers, of course you will get one slant on your response.

Methodology is EVERYTHING in making a poll say what you want.

Also we are likely seeing a good percentage of the 'New Candidate Bounce effect considering the time frame.

No one states of PTP numbers are RISING over time, or settling after an early boost.

Statstics, lies and damned lies.

I'll believe the real poll numbers at least have some validity.

Well if it is so easy i am sure the dems would have commissioned a poll where they visit the brain dead to garner support and show them ahead in a poll.

Also if you are correct don't you find it a little worrying the the pollsters are making sure PTP are ahead at the polls, it seems only a few posters on here still have blind faith in the dems while everyone else has the sussed for exactly what they are.

My understanding is the polls are based on a range of people and give a true reflection of the feelings of the population, surely if your allegation is true they would have sought out the PTP supporters in the south and polled them only to show them leading down there also, the truth is, and some of you don't like it and will try your nest to belittle it, is that PTP are ahead and will win the next election, the arrogance shown by suthep as to ignore the polls shows his menatlity, either he is clueless or the result of the election has already been arranged, or he knows the army that he stood side by side with during last years slaughter will make sure PTP do not have the power as they will start to ask some tricky question.

[Ricardo]

The thing that surprises me about this poll is that a week ago 44% were undecided. If find it hard to believe that 42% made up there minds in a week, and with 2 weeks still to go, only 2% are undecided.

That struck me too.

Also that PTP get only 70% in the North-East, where they're up against BJT, and have fallen to 60% in the North, where Chiang Mai is supposed to be one of their two heartlands. (This is going by the more-detailed Suan Dusit poll).

The Nisa poll, giving PTP 43% & 37%, seems even further off what one might expect ? Could this be why Ms Yingluck was working hard up there earlier in her campaign, because their vote may be softening, in their core areas ? But these results are after she's done her best.

Lies, dam_n-lies & statistics, perhaps ?

[sbk]

Notification to all political posters:

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TONE IT DOWN NOW

[Ricardo]

Also just spotted that there seems to be something wrong with the DP Overall-result, on the Suan Dusit Poll bar-chart, should surely show 34.05% and not 75.87&, they may have taken the figure for the South in-error.

And that the sample of the Nida poll is only 1,24 which perhaps explains the slightly-odd results ?,

[LuukKoeyKorat]

How many more poll results does Suthep have to see before he admits that something is not going quite right for the Dems?

[anterian]

Whether you are a PT or Dem supporter, one thing is clear, the army attitude and actions (or non actions), are going to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government. If the army plays any active rule this time it will clearly demonstrate to the world that Thailand is not a democracy.

As I see it whatever the army does the Dems seem to be in a lose, lose situation.

[thaiorchidsource]

In Chiang Mai yesterday, I observed that the billboard posters for Yinluck (#1) were placed right on the edge of the roadways, and they were in quite heavy numbers, but few billboard posters for Abhisit (#10) were visable and those that I could find were quite off the road back a distance to be hard to see. My guess is that Abhisit's billboard posters will have much less affect to garner votes than Yingluck's billboard posters in Chiang Mai.

[bubba]

Here are the campaign promises that I have heard so far from Pheu Thai:

- 100 billion baht for villages and communities, debt moratorium, debt restructuring and credit cards for farmers.

- One million tablet PCs for students

- 20,000 baht/ton price subsidy for rice

- minimum wage increase to 300 baht/day

- 1,000 baht cash handout to the elderly

- large extension of mass transit routes with ten new train lines in Bangkok and a 20 baht flat rate fare

- energy credit cards for taxis, commuter vans and motorcycle taxis

- reduce corporate income tax rates from the current 30% down to 20% by 2013

- building a 20,000 rai city from reclaimed land on the Gulf of Thailand

Now all these proposals are certainly attractive for just about any Thai citizen. But the question I have to ask is: from what source will the revenue come from to pay for all this, including making up for the reduced corporate tax rates?

Can anyone point to a reference where Pheu Thai set out regarding how they would fund all these plans and even come close to balancing the budget equation? if the answer is massive sovereign debt, this could become far more dismal than Greece.

[tragickingdom]

The minister of finance is quite outspoken. The polls are a disaster for the Democrat Party, Abhisit says he does not look at polls which claim that half the people are undecided. There are a million ballot papers more than voters. Don't hold your breath that the polls and the will of the people work out to be true.

[avalonmick]

4 July.

It has a nice ironic symmetry to it

Has a date been picked for the coup yet?

[jonnog]

It's not over till the fat lady sings, but it looks more and more like a PTP victory: and that makes a mockery of Abhisit's consistent claim that he and his party had a mandate to govern over the past two years. Abhisit and the Democrat party never had a mandate because they did not win a general election.

And people (like the many yellow-shirted farangs on this forum) who have tried to make out that Abhisit and the Democrats did have a mandate have (nearly) been shown as being so very very wrong. I'm no PTP supporter but that makes me smile because justice looks like it will be done.

[bedouin1990]

I once lived in the American state of Nevada. On the voting ballot there was a place for voting for, "None of the Above." Each time there was an election, in some races, None would get the most ballots. Embarrassed, the professional pols got that changed in a hurry. As Kinky Friedman once said, "You can lead a politician to water, but you can't make him THINK."

So....if Thailand lets folks vote for "nobody," then Godblessum' !

[random]

I could understand the arguments from the dems and the forum dems if these polls were going agaisnt the grain, but they are not, they are more likely to be right than wrong based on the way the elections have gone the past 10 years, PTP are ahead simply because the people want them in power, The belief that the reds actions alst year will cost them votes appears to be wrong, it seems the dems came out of that more badly than PTP, added to the fact that since they were handed power they have basically done nothing with it apart from make promises, make threats, try to shut down any opposition, and bolster the LM laws, the people of Thailand will speak, they want a democracy, not a dictatorship.

[hanuman1]

Whether you are a PT or Dem supporter, one thing is clear, the army attitude and actions (or non actions), are going to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government. If the army plays any active rule this time it will clearly demonstrate to the world that Thailand is not a democracy.

As I see it whatever the army does the Dems seem to be in a lose, lose situation.

I think it's practically inevitable that the army is going to get involved at street level whoever wins, either post election or further down the line if say the PTP win and try to get Thaksin back in.

Fringe elements on the losing side will have the resources to bring arms to the ensuing demonstrations and as long as the police remain ineffectual at controlling crowds the army will always have the excuse to step in.

The issue of police ineptness is going to be central again.

Edited June 20, 2011 by hanuman1

[tlansford]

Notification to all political posters:

Defamatory posts will not be tolerated

Abusive posts will not be tolerated

Inflammatory posts will not be tolerated

This nonsense will cease in these threads. Members will find their posting rights suspended until after if they cannot maintain civility and follow forum rules and this will be done without any prior notification other than the warn. This IS your notification.

TONE IT DOWN NOW

Thank you.

[MILT]

Here are the campaign promises that I have heard so far from Pheu Thai:

- 100 billion baht for villages and communities, debt moratorium, debt restructuring and credit cards for farmers.

- One million tablet PCs for students

- 20,000 baht/ton price subsidy for rice

- minimum wage increase to 300 baht/day

- 1,000 baht cash handout to the elderly

- large extension of mass transit routes with ten new train lines in Bangkok and a 20 baht flat rate fare

- energy credit cards for taxis, commuter vans and motorcycle taxis

- reduce corporate income tax rates from the current 30% down to 20% by 2013

- building a 20,000 rai city from reclaimed land on the Gulf of Thailand

Now all these proposals are certainly attractive for just about any Thai citizen. But the question I have to ask is: from what source will the revenue come from to pay for all this, including making up for the reduced corporate tax rates?

Can anyone point to a reference where Pheu Thai set out regarding how they would fund all these plans and even come close to balancing the budget equation? if the answer is massive sovereign debt, this could become far more dismal than Greece.

It's a good question. How did they leave 169 of their supporters rotting in jail because they had no money to bail themselves out. Garbage collectors, Person's with mental health problems, and the homeless. This is the example of how they are going to pay (or not going to pay) for these band aid promises which will not manifest because the reds know already the money's not there in real terms to be able follow through and that will be their escape goat to wiggle out from this hole they dug themselves. Just wait and see (IF THEY WIN)

[animatic]

Even a large poll can be slanted.

If you instruct your pollsters to go to migrant worker shacks,

or rice fields and ask mostly motorcycle taxi drivers, of course you will get one slant on your response.

Methodology is EVERYTHING in making a poll say what you want.

Also we are likely seeing a good percentage of the 'New Candidate Bounce effect considering the time frame.

No one states of PTP numbers are RISING over time, or settling after an early boost.

Statstics, lies and damned lies.

I'll believe the real poll numbers at least have some validity.

Well if it is so easy i am sure the dems would have commissioned a poll where they visit the brain dead to garner support and show them ahead in a poll.

Also if you are correct don't you find it a little worrying the the pollsters are making sure PTP are ahead at the polls, it seems only a few posters on here still have blind faith in the dems while everyone else has the sussed for exactly what they are.

My understanding is the polls are based on a range of people and give a true reflection of the feelings of the population, surely if your allegation is true they would have sought out the PTP supporters in the south and polled them only to show them leading down there also, the truth is, and some of you don't like it and will try your nest to belittle it, is that PTP are ahead and will win the next election, the arrogance shown by suthep as to ignore the polls shows his menatlity, either he is clueless or the result of the election has already been arranged, or he knows the army that he stood side by side with during last years slaughter will make sure PTP do not have the power as they will start to ask some tricky question.

Polls are commissioned by various parties for various reasons.

If we don't know who commissioned it. If we can not actually SEE a question sheet, and the ordering of questions, and a proper translation of the questions,

and the methodology of where and how to locate people to question,

we can only guess at how a poll it is slanted.

It is well known for over 50 years that one set of people can be subjected to two sets of questions, and come up with diametrically opposing answers, prior top

interpretations. Even exit polls on election days do not always reflect the final votes in the most honest of constituencies.

Edited June 20, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

Here are the campaign promises that I have heard so far from Pheu Thai:

- 100 billion baht for villages and communities, debt moratorium, debt restructuring and credit cards for farmers.

- One million tablet PCs for students

- 20,000 baht/ton price subsidy for rice

- minimum wage increase to 300 baht/day

- 1,000 baht cash handout to the elderly

- large extension of mass transit routes with ten new train lines in Bangkok and a 20 baht flat rate fare

- energy credit cards for taxis, commuter vans and motorcycle taxis

- reduce corporate income tax rates from the current 30% down to 20% by 2013

- building a 20,000 rai city from reclaimed land on the Gulf of Thailand

Now all these proposals are certainly attractive for just about any Thai citizen. But the question I have to ask is: from what source will the revenue come from to pay for all this, including making up for the reduced corporate tax rates?

Can anyone point to a reference where Pheu Thai set out regarding how they would fund all these plans and even come close to balancing the budget equation? if the answer is massive sovereign debt, this could become far more dismal than Greece.

It's a good question. How did they leave 169 of their supporters rotting in jail because they had no money to bail themselves out. Garbage collectors, Person's with mental health problems, and the homeless. This is the example of how they are going to pay (or not going to pay) for these band aid promises which will not manifest because the reds know already the money's not there in real terms to be able follow through and that will be their escape goat to wiggle out from this hole they dug themselves. Just wait and see (IF THEY WIN)

Political capital to accuse the government with is the most plausible answer.

Second would be they are too greedy to pay up when they need the money for the election.

Likely a bit of both, coupled with feudal arrogance.

The poor are tools to use by the liege lords,

and don't really count after they are spent.

Edited June 20, 2011 by animatic

[random]

Even a large poll can be slanted.

If you instruct your pollsters to go to migrant worker shacks,

or rice fields and ask mostly motorcycle taxi drivers, of course you will get one slant on your response.

Methodology is EVERYTHING in making a poll say what you want.

Also we are likely seeing a good percentage of the 'New Candidate Bounce effect considering the time frame.

No one states of PTP numbers are RISING over time, or settling after an early boost.

Statstics, lies and damned lies.

I'll believe the real poll numbers at least have some validity.

Well if it is so easy i am sure the dems would have commissioned a poll where they visit the brain dead to garner support and show them ahead in a poll.

Also if you are correct don't you find it a little worrying the the pollsters are making sure PTP are ahead at the polls, it seems only a few posters on here still have blind faith in the dems while everyone else has the sussed for exactly what they are.

My understanding is the polls are based on a range of people and give a true reflection of the feelings of the population, surely if your allegation is true they would have sought out the PTP supporters in the south and polled them only to show them leading down there also, the truth is, and some of you don't like it and will try your nest to belittle it, is that PTP are ahead and will win the next election, the arrogance shown by suthep as to ignore the polls shows his menatlity, either he is clueless or the result of the election has already been arranged, or he knows the army that he stood side by side with during last years slaughter will make sure PTP do not have the power as they will start to ask some tricky question.

Polls are commissioned by various parties for various reasons.

If we don't know who commissioned it. If we can not actually SEE a question sheet, and the ordering of questions, and a proper translation of the questions,

and the methodology of where and how to locate people to question,

we can only guess at how a poll it is slanted.

It is well known for over 50 years that one set of people can be subjected to two sets of questions, and come up with diametrically opposing answers, prior top

interpretations. Even exit polls on election days do not always reflect the final votes in the most honest of constituencies.

Exactly the point i am making, so if it is so easy to affect the outcome of a poll, why have the dems not done this? i have not seen one poll yet in which they are leading, or have they conducted a poll but the results were too embarrassing for them to release?

Surley just before an election the poll will be to see how people will be voting, so the polls now asking 'who will you vote for' are clearly asking people who they will vote for, of course ina red area you are likely to get a red result, but my point is why are the dems not doing polls in yellow areas to show them ahead? or is it not possible because so many people are agaisnt them?

[animatic]

Notification to all political posters:

Defamatory posts will not be tolerated

Abusive posts will not be tolerated

Inflammatory posts will not be tolerated

This nonsense will cease in these threads. Members will find their posting rights suspended until after if they cannot maintain civility and follow forum rules and this will be done without any prior notification other than the warn. This IS your notification.

TONE IT DOWN NOW

Thank you.

Seconded, dear lady.

[Bruce1]

I see the poll only covered about one-fifth of the total number of constituencies, so how useful is it really?

Edited June 20, 2011 by Bruce1

[anterian]

Whether you are a PT or Dem supporter, one thing is clear, the army attitude and actions (or non actions), are going to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government. If the army plays any active rule this time it will clearly demonstrate to the world that Thailand is not a democracy.

As I see it whatever the army does the Dems seem to be in a lose, lose situation.

I think it's practically inevitable that the army is going to get involved at street level whoever wins, either post election or further down the line if say the PTP win and try to get Thaksin back in.

Fringe elements on the losing side will have the resources to bring arms to the ensuing demonstrations and as long as the police remain ineffectual at controlling crowds the army will always have the excuse to step in.

The issue of police ineptness is going to be central again.

I agree but am not quite sure who the fringe elements would be. The PAD were the activists on the Yellow Dem side, but now have deserted them and want them to fail. Perhaps the army will create a new coloured force. I think as long as PT make no sudden moves towards an amnesty the PAD will stay mute.

[whybother]

I see the poll only covered about one-fifth of the total number of constituencies, so how useful is it really?

The poll was conducted from June 4 until Saturday June 18 in all the 375 constituencies.

[whybother]

I agree but am not quite sure who the fringe elements would be. The PAD were the activists on the Yellow Dem side, but now have deserted them and want them to fail. Perhaps the army will create a new coloured force. I think as long as PT make no sudden moves towards an amnesty the PAD will stay mute.

The yellow shirts will come back in force when PTP start to change laws to whitewash Thaksin's crimes. That's what happened after the 2007 elections. They were quiet for a few months, but when PPP started trying to change laws, the PAD came out to protest. Don't assume that just because no one has been supporting them on the border disputes means that no one will support them against Thaksin.