Don't Rule Out The Possibility Of A Third Candidate For PM; Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Don't rule out the possibility of a third candidate for PM

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

The probability isn't that high, but the possibility of a third candidate for the premiership after the July 3 election can't be totally ruled out.

Pheu Thai is poised to beat the Democrats. That's almost a foregone conclusion. The margin of victory will decide whether the next prime minister is a woman or a man.

The difference between the number of seats won by the two major parties will also decide whether a third person can steal the show from Yingluck Shinawatra or Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The number of combined seats that the third, fourth and fifth parties can garner will also determine the shape of the new coalition government and the person who will lead the line-up.

If Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai, Banharn Silpa-archa's Chart Thai Pattana and Suwat Liptapanlop's Pattana Pheu Pandin manage to win over 100 seats in the 500-member House, the political landscape could assume a dramatic change from the prevailing predicated line-up.

Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party has publicly rejected Newin's party in any future coalition. That means Bhum Jai Thai will be stuck with the Democrats in any fight to form the next government.

Newin's bargaining power will depend largely on whether he can win the 60-70 seats that he claims he can muster. Most polls so far have suggested that he would count himself lucky to be able to retain 40 seats. The recent assassination of one of his main canvassers in the heart of Bangkok - a prelude to intensified campaign-related violence - could have a significant negative impact on his party's chances.

Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai are engaged in hand-to-hand combat in several northeastern constituencies. If Newin cannot manage to win at least 50 seats, his earlier braggadocio that "Neither Pheu Thai nor the Democrats can form the next government without us" would sound hollow indeed.

Banharn's Chart Thai Pattana may be fourth in the expected ranking in terms of seats won. But it stands a better chance of being drawn into the next coalition, regardless of who wins the most seats. The veteran politician has been humble about his party's prospects in the election. "If we can retain the 30 seats we have, I would consider our target met," he said.

But Banharn isn't just another "party owner". He is not only shrewd but is also manipulative. There is no doubt that he has only one aim in mind: it doesn't matter who heads the next government; Chat Thai Pattana will have to be part of the new line-up. Political ideology and alliance pacts be damned.

And if there were to be a third candidate for the premiership should deadlock ensue following the election, this party could stake a claim to that position in Major General Sanan Kachornprasart, the party's senior adviser, who has played the "reconciliation" card all along.

But hasn't Banharn signed a pact of allegiance with Newin to be bound together in another political move after the election? Of course, that's public knowledge. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Banharn won't find a timely excuse to wriggle out of the gentlemen's agreement which, after all, was never meant to be a serious bond in the first place.

Suwat's party may not win enough seats to enable him to bargain for a large piece of the pie. But he certainly is no less dextrous than Banharn in striking political deals, especially if a political deadlock should materialise, for one reason or another.

The Democrats' chances of winning a simple majority (over 250 seats) are almost certainly out of reach. Unless the Democrats can work out a quick and pre-emptive deal with Newin and Banharn to hammer out a coalition with more than 270 seats, the party's political future is in serious doubt.

And even if that unlikely alliance could be cobbled together, the man to head the Democrat-led coalition may not be Abhisit, who is seen to have worn out his own charisma and effectiveness. The name of the Democrat Party's chief adviser Chuan Leekpai as an alternative has again been raised as a more "acceptable" choice if that scenario should come to pass.

On the other side of the political landscape, if the campaign led by Kaewsan Atipobhi to level perjury charges against Yingluck in Thaksin's assets case picks up momentum, Thaksin may find it more politically feasible to pick a second or third choice to head a Pheu Thai-led government.

But if the election returns don't turn out the way he wants, Thaksin, facing a victory that may be far short of a "landslide" win, may decide to make virtue out of necessity by handing over the premiership to the leader of one of the third parties in the name of "national reconciliation".

After all, if the proposed "amnesty" was to be popularly acceptable, the head of the government that initiates such a move can't be someone so closely linked to Thaksin. In that situation, Yingluck may be "too close" to Thaksin for comfort.

But then, these are merely "possible but not so probable" predictions in case the most likely scenario - a Yingluck-Abhisit fight to head the new government - somehow falls through. With a huge "undecided" vote (30 per cent to 40 per cent of those surveyed by several polls) two weeks from election day, nothing can be ruled out.

-- The Nation 2011-06-23

[whybother]

Surely, with a lot of people voting for Pheu Thai because of their fresh faced, no political baggage, business experienced, female PM candidate , they wouldn't go back on their voters wishes and not put Yingluck in as PM???

That would be like them saying that even though so many people voted for them because they planned to give Thaksin amnesty, that they will decide to shelve that policy too.