New Polls Show Pheu Thai Leading In Bangkok

[webfact]

SURVEYS

New polls show Pheu Thai leading in capital

By The Nation

In Bangkok, Pheu Thai is still enjoying a comfortable lead over the Democrat Party according to the most recent surveys.

Two opinion polls conducted over the past week showed that voters in the capital favoured Pheu Thai's constituency candidates, as well as its prime-ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra over the Democrats and their PM candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva.

However, almost one-third of the respondents kept their choice to themselves, with 20-26 per cent saying they were undecided and about 7 per cent refusing to reveal whom they support.

A survey conducted by Dhurakij Pundit University, in cooperation with the Nation Group, showed that Pheu Thai was leading in 22 of the city's 33 constituencies, the Democrats have outright support in six, while it is a neck-and-neck competition in the remaining five constituencies. The Democrats are leading with a 5-percentage-point margin in the capital's Constituencies 1, 2, 10, 22, 27 and 32, while the competition is very close in Constituencies 4, 5, 7, 16 and 19.

When asked whom they would vote for as prime minister, 47 per cent of the respondents favoured Yingluck, 39 per cent backed Abhisit, 7 per cent picked Rak Santi Party leader Purachai Piumsomboon and 4 per cent opted for Rak Prathet Thai leader Chuwit Kamolvisit. The remaining 3 per cent wanted other politicians for the post.

The survey also found that 26 per cent of the respondents were undecided, while 6 per cent said they would keep their options open.

A survey conducted by Bangkok University also showed the Pheu Thai Party leading in terms of popularity, party-list candidates as well as the prime ministerial contender.

In this poll, 37.9 per cent of the respondents said they would opt for Pheu Thai candidates, 22.2 per cent Democrat candidates and 1.2 per cent said they would go for politicians under the Rak Santi banner.

However, as many as 22.1 per cent of the respondents said they were still undecided, 7.6 per cent refused to identify their favourite candidate, while slightly more than 5 per cent said they would tick the "no vote" box in their ballot papers.

When asked to name their favourite political party, 38.3 per cent of the respondents chose Pheu Thai, 21.6 per cent the Democrat Party, 3.4 per cent opted for Rak Thailand and 1.6 per cent backed Rak Santi.

The latest poll was conducted between June 16 and 22 on 3,338 eligible voters in all of Bangkok's 50 districts.

This was done through face-to-face interviews, with the respondents being asked to answer questionnaires.

Of the respondents, 47.2 per cent said they preferred Yingluck as the next prime minister because they wanted to see a new face running the country, while 28 per cent said they wanted Abhisit to continue with the job.

Meanwhile, the incumbent prime minister said he did not put much weight on the Bangkok University poll, because none of its surveys ever showed Democrats as winners. Other opinion polls, such as those conducted by Abac and Suan Dusit, showed the margin between the two key parties narrowing, he said.

-- The Nation 2011-06-24

[JurgenG]

the incumbent prime minister said he did not put much weight on the Bangkok University poll, because none of its surveys ever showed Democrats as winners

[\quote]

Did the democrats ever win ?

[SomTumTiger]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

[whybother]

At least the undecided has come down. Now only 26% instead of 30-50% that previous polls showed.

[huanga]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

Agreed! However, my feeling is Democratic+BJT might almost = PTP with maybe Chaipattana as the swing votes.

Thai people, please wake up and vote! "DO THE RIGHT THING"

It's an election to pick which is a lesser evil. But think about who would you rather have to lead this country for the next term. My opinion is to go with someone who has done it for the last two years, maybe not with flying color but still has a passing grade, or someone who has not been a public servant. The only experience was at creating corporate profit??? And not even a company she created (nepotism)?? So pretty much, a completely untested novice in both corporate and country's management!

Consider of the policies of each party and how these policies can first benefit and move the country forward first then yourselves! God bless Thailand.

[Schooner]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

Polls are a statistical sampling of a population and have proven to be very accurate predictors of people's ultimate choice within the poll's margin of error.

I agree that this one is probably flawed because people are afraid to comment for fear of reprisal from their own government. I believe that support is much higher than this poll indicates, but of course the only poll that matters is on voting day.

More information will be coming out before the election that could swing things dramatically. Apparently there is a Routers reporter who has left Bangkok to submit a 50,000 word report on the present situation using recently released wiki leaks information which could blow the whole election wide open.

Abhisit also claims to have information that he will release soon, but I think it's going to be impossible to explain away the bullets recovered from the heads of victims shot in the temple after the reds surrendered. One international source is claiming to have video footage of soldiers shooting into the temple from the elevated train and the International Herald Tribune has interviews with victims who were not even participants in the protests, but who were randomly shot.

I think that the election results won't matter because if the PTP does win the army will just take over again and begin another search for a candidate to appoint.

[guavajuice]

What legacy will a wide margin of victory leave Mr. Abhisit? We can only imagine the flood of evidence that will come out once the Dems have lost their hold on the media, army, truth committees, etc.

[ballpoint]

What legacy will a wide margin of victory leave Mr. Abhisit? We can only imagine the flood of evidence that will come out once the Dems have lost their hold on the media, army, truth committees, etc.

That's because it is purely imaginary evidence. The reds were very careful to dismantle the CCTV cameras that could have helped answer at least some of the questions. What were they hiding?

[webfact]

Korn confident Democrats will sweep all 33 constituency MP seats in BKK /TAN_Network

Suthep is confident Democrats will win 27 out of 33 MP seats up for grabs in BKK /TAN_Network

[Pib]

In my moobaan here in western Bangkok and in a nearby province where most the in-laws live and from listening to the neighbors and in-laws speak, the Pheu Thai Party (#1) seems to be the favorite....seems to match-up with what the polls are generally saying. And the idea of a female PM seems to have real support; maybe it's just the desire to give a different political party and a female PM a stab at running the government/fixing problems in the country. Remember, politicians are like diapers; they need to be changed often. Don't know, but don't discount the polls especially since almost every poll has the Pheu Thai in the lead. But regardless of which party wins the most votes, the winning party getting other parties to join-in to form a coalition government may be a real cirrus show. For Thailand's sake, I sure hope the election goes smoothly without too many follow-on red cards/disqualifications being issued out afterwards.

[bushwacker]

"as well as its prime-ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra over the Democrats and their PM candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva."

What gives here .... Not too long ago Mr. T was quoted as saying that if they will he will not let his sister - Yingluck be the Prime Minister for various reasons and she was only selected by him to be a figure head to lead the election effort. He was quoted as saying that if his party wins then he will pick a more suitable person to be the Prime Minister. Do the Thai people not know this or is it that the reporters do not read their own stories?

:jap:

Edited June 24, 2011 by metisdead
Font normalized, if you wish to emphasize something, use the Insert quotation feature.

[Buchholz]

Thaksin Looms Over Thai Vote as Sister Yingluck’s Lead Unsettles Investors

Left motherless at a young age, Yingluck Shinawatra says her eldest brother became like a parent to her. From college in the U.S., to running Thailand’s biggest mobile phone company and now seeking to become prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra guided her life. Just how much the 61-year-old exiled former leader continues to do so is a growing risk for investors as Yingluck, 43, leads in polls before July 3 elections. Concern a victory would reignite the political conflict that has racked the country and prompt a coup like that which toppled her brother in 2006 has helped drive more than $1 billion in overseas money from Thai stocks since she emerged as a candidate last month.

“He’s the one who took care of me and helped in terms of education and teaching me on the management style,” Yingluck said in a June 8 interview conducted in English at a Bangkok slum, where hundreds of supporters thronged around her. She described Thaksin as her “second father,” while adding that when it comes to leading the country, “I will be myself.”

A veteran corporate executive in the Shinawatra family’s business group, Yingluck’s lack of political experience means Thaksin will likely continue to steer the party from abroad, where he’s lived since fleeing a two-year prison term for abuse of power in a 2008 court ruling, analysts said. “People know very little about her thoughts,” said Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, CEO of Asia Plus Securities Pcl (ASP), Thailand’s third-biggest brokerage. “She reports directly to Thaksin. The slogan the party uses, ‘Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai implements,’ will be exactly the way it is.”

Continues:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/thaksin-looms-in-thai-vote-as-yingluck-lead-unsettles-investors.html

Bloomberg

[jdinasia]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

Polls are a statistical sampling of a population and have proven to be very accurate predictors of people's ultimate choice within the poll's margin of error.

I agree that this one is probably flawed because people are afraid to comment for fear of reprisal from their own government. I believe that support is much higher than this poll indicates, but of course the only poll that matters is on voting day.

More information will be coming out before the election that could swing things dramatically. Apparently there is a Routers reporter who has left Bangkok to submit a 50,000 word report on the present situation using recently released wiki leaks information which could blow the whole election wide open.

Abhisit also claims to have information that he will release soon, but I think it's going to be impossible to explain away the bullets recovered from the heads of victims shot in the temple after the reds surrendered. One international source is claiming to have video footage of soldiers shooting into the temple from the elevated train and the International Herald Tribune has interviews with victims who were not even participants in the protests, but who were randomly shot.

I think that the election results won't matter because if the PTP does win the army will just take over again and begin another search for a candidate to appoint.

You obviously haven't paid attention to polls and their results in Thailand.

[DP25]

Do these face to face polls in Bangkok take in to account that half the people living here do not actually vote here, but instead travel back to their home province where they cast their vote?

[Bakseedaa]

What legacy will a wide margin of victory leave Mr. Abhisit? We can only imagine the flood of evidence that will come out once the Dems have lost their hold on the media, army, truth committees, etc.

You can only imagine, most of us prefer facts and not imaginations..

[ianbaggie]

What legacy will a wide margin of victory leave Mr. Abhisit? We can only imagine the flood of evidence that will come out once the Dems have lost their hold on the media, army, truth committees, etc.

I think all I can say to this poster is - "imagine' is the best way to describe it.

[Schooner]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

Polls are a statistical sampling of a population and have proven to be very accurate predictors of people's ultimate choice within the poll's margin of error.

I agree that this one is probably flawed because people are afraid to comment for fear of reprisal from their own government. I believe that support is much higher than this poll indicates, but of course the only poll that matters is on voting day.

More information will be coming out before the election that could swing things dramatically. Apparently there is a Routers reporter who has left Bangkok to submit a 50,000 word report on the present situation using recently released wiki leaks information which could blow the whole election wide open.

Abhisit also claims to have information that he will release soon, but I think it's going to be impossible to explain away the bullets recovered from the heads of victims shot in the temple after the reds surrendered. One international source is claiming to have video footage of soldiers shooting into the temple from the elevated train and the International Herald Tribune has interviews with victims who were not even participants in the protests, but who were randomly shot.

I think that the election results won't matter because if the PTP does win the army will just take over again and begin another search for a candidate to appoint.

You obviously haven't paid attention to polls and their results in Thailand.

No I haven't, but this is not the only poll taken and the one's I've seen are similar. Are you saying that the PAD is ahead? if not what's your point?

[animatic]

What will be interesting for me is to see how close these polls are to the actual final tally. There seems to be some pretty weak sampling in many of these polls, so I don't know how much credence I give them. I think it's a pretty close race, and I think people are stupid to count out the BJT effect.

Polls are a statistical sampling of a population and have proven to be very accurate predictors of people's ultimate choice within the poll's margin of error.

I agree that this one is probably flawed because people are afraid to comment for fear of reprisal from their own government. I believe that support is much higher than this poll indicates, but of course the only poll that matters is on voting day.

More information will be coming out before the election that could swing things dramatically. Apparently there is a Routers reporter who has left Bangkok to submit a 50,000 word report on the present situation using recently released wiki leaks information which could blow the whole election wide open.

Abhisit also claims to have information that he will release soon, but I think it's going to be impossible to explain away the bullets recovered from the heads of victims shot in the temple after the reds surrendered. One international source is claiming to have video footage of soldiers shooting into the temple from the elevated train and the International Herald Tribune has interviews with victims who were not even participants in the protests, but who were randomly shot.

I think that the election results won't matter because if the PTP does win the army will just take over again and begin another search for a candidate to appoint.

You obviously haven't paid attention to polls and their results in Thailand.

Starting off with a false premice and basing a page on this.

Welcome to TVF.

Polls are a statistical sampling of a population

and have proven to be very accurate predictors of

people's ultimate choice within the poll's margin of error.

That margin of error here is huge by the way.

[whybother]

No I haven't, but this is not the only poll taken and the one's I've seen are similar. Are you saying that the PAD is ahead? if not what's your point?

The PAD are campaigning for a 'No Vote' so I don't think they're ahead.

[JohnAllan]

The problem with pre-election opinion polls - anywhere, but likely in particular in Thailand - is not their unquestionable ability to influence some voters, but the percentage of voters they DO influence. Published results should be banned, until after an election. It would also be interesting to see how the poll resullts then panned out in practice . . .

[lanna2011]

isn't it funny that some posters on here criticise the polls but use them in other threads when it suits? anyway Abhisit is about to pay the price of his handling of the reds problem. But I'd still be surprised if the Dems couldn't cobble together a wobbly government - they should ditch Suthept - that would give them several more percentage points.

[Buchholz]

isn't it funny that some posters on here criticise the polls but use them in other threads when it suits?

Please share your examples of that happening.

.

[anterian]

Not a poll just a personal survey in my village (35 km Northwest of central Bangkok), until 2 weeks ago was roughly 50:50 Dem and PT.

Now it has become 50:50 PT and NO vote. I do not know what has brought about this change particularly as the Dem canvassers have been out in much greater force than PT.

[henryalleman]

The older ones amongst us do remember 1948, were till election night Dewey was expected to win with a landslide,

And who did win the elections Truman.

In my own country about 20 years ago all the polls indicated that the Liberal part would be the big winner of the elections;

But when election day came the were the biggest losers and ended up in the oposition.

Polls are just entertainement that's all.

[lanna2011]

isn't it funny that some posters on here criticise the polls but use them in other threads when it suits?

Please share your examples of that happening.

.

I shall decline to do so but I was recently quoted a poll (completely different subject matter) which was very unscientifically put together (a TV poll) to justify something and now a much more professionally put together poll is hammered - just raise a point it's not that important as 'TVland' is in a Universe of it's own

[moobaan]

At least the undecided has come down. Now only 26% instead of 30-50% that previous polls showed.

Can't see Dems gaining much this time - generally Thais are not happy at the way the coalition was put together and the double faced nature of it all - but no one really knows of course

[Buchholz]

isn't it funny that some posters on here criticise the polls but use them in other threads when it suits?

Please share your examples of that happening.

I shall decline to do so but I was recently quoted a poll (completely different subject matter) which was very unscientifically put together (a TV poll) to justify something and now a much more professionally put together poll is hammered - just raise a point it's not that important as 'TVland' is in a Universe of it's own

Too bad you decide not to justify your comment as it leaves one with the notion that it isn't accurate, but I can respect your choice not to validate it.

.

[rubl]

isn't it funny that some posters on here criticise the polls but use them in other threads when it suits? anyway Abhisit is about to pay the price of his handling of the reds problem. But I'd still be surprised if the Dems couldn't cobble together a wobbly government - they should ditch Suthept - that would give them several more percentage points.

The margin of error in the polls and the large number of undecided make the polls difficult to base other than shaky conclusions. That's probably the reason why a few of the members here have given us their private poll results and insights. I'm tempted to do my own poll here in my neck of the woods, about two blocks from Dusit Zoo

[lungmi]

Not a poll just a personal survey in my village (35 km Northwest of central Bangkok), until 2 weeks ago was roughly 50:50 Dem and PT.

Now it has become 50:50 PT and NO vote. I do not know what has brought about this change particularly as the Dem canvassers have been out in much greater force than PT.

The special forces of reds made her job?l

[jdinasia]

Wow and all this time I thought that Korn went to primary school in Thailand. Graduated with honours from St. John's College at Oxford. Took a job where he worked while in college and was promoted. THEN returned to Thailand to found a company when he was 24, that firm went on to have the top market share in investment banking in just 7 year. That company was later bought out by J.P. MorganChase, where he stayed on as the top guy. After 5 years he left to enter politics. JP Morgan was on top even when he left.

So I would guess he made a success in London, and even a bigger success in Thailand.

I understand the envy that the reds must feel, not having anyone even close to Korn's background and experience, but hey .. they have Yingluck ... who has worked for her brother