Violence Feared After Key Thai Elections

[webfact]

Violence feared after key Thai elections

by Didier Lauras

BANGKOK, June 28, 2011 (AFP) - The divisions that plague Thai society will deepen further after Sunday's election unless arch-enemies within the political realm agree to respect the verdict of the polls, analysts say.

Ahead of the July 3 vote which is crucial to the future of the Southeast Asian nation, few observers expect the winner will be able to quietly take power for a four-year term and face opposition merely from within parliament.

The election is largely a battle between the establishment-backed, ruling Democrats led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, and the opposition Puea Thai, spearheaded from exile by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Five years on from a military coup that deposed Thaksin and triggered years of bloody political crisis, the billionaire remains a figure who crystallises debate in Thailand, where he is still both widely adored and hated.

Two major political movements have formed around his personality: the anti-Thaksin, royalist "Yellow Shirts" tacitly backed by the nation's elites, and the largely working-class and rural "Red Shirts" who are his loyalists.

The years since Thaksin's expulsion from power have been marked by mass street rallies by both movements.

Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead.

Many observers fear a resurgence of street demonstrations over the coming months.

"This election will lead to more violence and unrest because no matter who forms the next government, be it the Puea Thai or be it the Democrats, there will be protesters in the streets opposing these parties," said Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Chiang Mai city.

"That means that neither party can really claim legitimacy, a mandate from the entire Thai people."

Another factor is the country's long tradition of electoral irregularities. Only one international monitoring group, and no foreign governments, will send observers to polling stations.

Aswin Kongsiri, a Thai businessman on the board of several companies and the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said it was very important that the elections were seen to be "as fair as possible".

"If one side believes it is unfair, because of the intervention of the military, because of the buying of voters, because of stuffing of the ballots, -- all of that can happen -- that could cause the losing side to take to the streets."

Thailand's army is frequently cited by analysts in possible worst case scenarios that could engulf the nation: their intervention to overthrow Thaksin in 2006 was just the latest of 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932.

Thaksin's youngest sister Yingluck, a 44-year-old political novice and businesswoman, is the opposition's candidate for premier.

Smiling and photogenic, she has quickly gathered momentum and taken the lead over Abhisit in the polls, including even in the capital -- the establishment's heartland.

She is expected to clinch a minority win which would give her the chance to try to form a coalition government.

But the question remains whether Thailand's elite would accept the return of Thaksin's allies to power. His party has raised the possibility of a general amnesty for politicians, which would pave the way for his homecoming.

From his base in Dubai, the former telecoms tycoon has repeatedly expressed his keenness to attend his daughter's wedding in Thailand in December -- a prospect that horrifies the elites.

"It's time to get rid of the poison of Thaksin," Abhisit told a campaign rally recently, pointedly held at the main site of last year's rival Red Shirt demonstration.

If voters did not support the ruling party, "in the future Thai people will be held hostage by people who love violence," Abhisit added, marking an aggressive turn in the campaign with a willingness to demonise the opposition.

Among the scenarios that could prevent Thaksin's allies from taking power would be a court decision that disqualified them from ruling. The Democrats could also put pressure on minority parties to refuse to work with Yingluck.

A third politician from a minority group, not subservient to either of the two major parties, could also exploit the divisions to manoeuvre himself into the key post.

But beyond the partisan negotiations, the crucial player is the rich and powerful army.

"We must accept political reality," said Pichai Chuensuksawadi, editor in chief of the Bangkok Post daily.

"The military through the decade, in various degrees, has played a political role despite public declarations", he said.

For the country to move forward, if the Puea Thai wins on Sunday, "an understanding needs to be reached with the military".

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-06-28

[letitbe]

stating obvious is it not. If Taksin wins their will be war. If taksin looses their will be war and it will get a lot worse before it gets better. Until Taksin is taken out one way or another or his party abandon him then he will never give up and will continue to cause chaos

[cfsprinkler]

Will Bangkok be a safe city to visit during the first week of July? I might need to change my travel plans if not.

[Bkkorupcountry]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

[wolfmanjack]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

Thai tourism is suffering because of the exchange rate, the financial crisis and the high cost of oil (ie jet fuel). The prospect of protests after the election may also affect the summer tourist season.

[virtualtraveller]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

[Bkkorupcountry]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

Thai tourism is suffering because of the exchange rate, the financial crisis and the high cost of oil (ie jet fuel). The prospect of protests after the election may also affect the summer tourist season.

If you say so.

[Bkkorupcountry]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

Yes. PT could forward a proposal to have Thaksin under house arrest for x number of years, not able to leave the country and no (outright) interference in politics. No TV or newspaper interviews, no public speeches or broadcasts etc. He can continue to pull the strings behind the scene as this is inevitable anyway.

[Jingthing]

Thaksin doesn't impress me as someone you can actually have GOOD FAITH negotiations with. Sorry about that, but isn't that obviously true based on his past words and actions?

I do feel he is a tragic figure and totally linked to the probably grim near term future of Thailand. I feel this is going to end badly somehow probably for both Thaksin AND Thailand, that Black Songkran and Bangkok Burning were precursors of something even more tragic.

Edited June 28, 2011 by Jingthing

[MegaRanter]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

The seizure of 49 billion baht seems to be a fair punishment to me.

Edited June 28, 2011 by MegaRanter

[Jingthing]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

The seizure of 49 billion baht seems to be a fair punishment to me.

You know he wants to grab that back, surely, yes?

[Buchholz]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

Yes. PT could forward a proposal to have Thaksin under house arrest for x number of years, not able to leave the country and no (outright) interference in politics. No TV or newspaper interviews, no public speeches or broadcasts etc. He can continue to pull the strings behind the scene as this is inevitable anyway.

Thaksin just 2 days ago in the Al-Jazeera interview refused to admit to any guilt whatsoever. He refuses any and all punishment. He will never concede to house arrest or any limitations to his involvement in politics.

.

[Buchholz]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

The seizure of 49 billion baht seems to be a fair punishment to me.

Perhaps if it had actually been his, it might be a start.

The seizure of his stolen money was simply to return what rightfully belonged to the country.

.

[MengWan]

"a military coup that deposed Thaksin and triggered years of bloody political crisis"

In fact, the political crisis started during the mandate of Thaksin ...

It started because of the multiple abuses which marked his government !

(so, the coup did NOT trigger the events, it was just an episode of them)

And I can recall having predicted "some trouble coming" when I was surprised to see in the avenues of Hat Yai portraits of Thaksin of a bigger size than those of HM ... (sometimes in 2003)

[Jingthing]

So the dread of division only seems to be DEEPENING. Is a civil war inevitable? Thai politics lately has been like earthquakes, the tension builds, it releases in violence, then repeat. Yet, Thailand has someone managed to avoid the BIG ONE. While Bangkok on fire was pretty big, it was clearly not the final release needed to really start things over.

[livinthailandos]

Regardless of who wins or loses nothing changes. Increased violence is highly likely. Just wonder what level of degree of violence we will see. Last year violence included:

Set buildings on fire

Setting bombs

assassination

Stealing weapons from military

Using a Rpg to fire at oil tank

etc

who knows about this time. All of know if things get worse than last year and we see violence spread to all provinces of thailand i'm not staying around just to get killed. I just hope for the best non violent outcome but preparing just incase.

[Jingthing]

Looking at Thai history, the silent majority of apolitical people may get to the point (again) where they are begging for another coup.

[MILT]

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

Shame on this poser who doesn't know what they are talking about. In fact visitors numbers are steady and climbing for a little while longer. Its the mass rioting and violence that will affect the tourism sector. Which sadly is going to happen in just a matter of days. One thing for sure even in the USA where protesting is more less a citizen's right if the people of america behaved like Taskins red's and Pad (to be fair) one, the police would shut it down and Thaskin would be in the gray bar hotel for inciting violence.

[Jingthing]

Its very silly indeed to equate the airport shutdown with weeks of live gunfire, bombs, and FIRE in Bangkok, led by the THAKSIN reds.

[jdinasia]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

Thai tourism is suffering because of the exchange rate, the financial crisis and the high cost of oil (ie jet fuel). The prospect of protests after the election may also affect the summer tourist season.

If you say so.

While there are errors in the article (regarding total number of coups/attempted coups etc) The article did not make the error that bkkorupcountry has made regarding tourism. Overall numbers are up. There is a shift in where people are traveling from. Political stuff has had little to do with the changes and finances has had more to do with the changes.

[MILT]

If an understanding can be reached whereby, the military and protestors will give Peua Thai the chance to govern, provided they don't overstep their mark or bring Thaksin back, I'm sure we can navigate our way out of this crisis. They are welcome to work within the framework of the law to explore avenues for his rehabilitation (they should not imagine that he will be able to get off scott free), but anything manipulate should expect a protest.

Thaksin might necessary take revenge (except against Newin perhaps) but rather use it from a position of strength to strike a deal with the military. He's never going to go away, and unfortunately he has the masses behind him, so ultimately a deal needs to be struck, but this isn't the final round, they will throw the law book at him and probably be able to legitimately pull it off (after PT isn't a proper political party), so that will be their negotiating position. If Thaksin can find it in himself to admit some guilt and take some punishment we can finally move towards reconciliation.

The seizure of 49 billion baht seems to be a fair punishment to me.

Perhaps if it had actually been his, it might be a start.

The seizure of his stolen money was simply to return what rightfully belonged to the country.

.

That's is absolutely correct. it was never his money. Nor was the north and north east his people. Thaskin brought this on himself and why because when you have billions the ole' saying goes "He who has the most toys wins" attitude.

Edited June 28, 2011 by MILT

[OzMick]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

My sister and her friend were stranded in BKK by the airport closure. Though initially stressed, they have both been back twice, independently, and both brought others with them. The only problem they expressed before coming back was re the red-shirts, overcome when they changed their plans and flew in via Phuket.

IMHO the news, shown around the world,that people were being murdered on the streets over a period of months was much more damaging than a brief airport closure. Most people that I have spoken too outside Thailand were amazed at the restraint and tolerance shown before the inevitable crackdown.

[jdinasia]

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

Shame on this poser who doesn't know what they are talking about. In fact visitors numbers are steady and climbing for a little while longer. Its the mass rioting and violence that will affect the tourism sector. Which sadly is going to happen in just a matter of days. One thing for sure even in the USA where protesting is more less a citizen's right if the people of america behaved like Taskins red's and Pad (to be fair) one, the police would shut it down and Thaskin would be in the gray bar hotel for inciting violence.

I would agree that massive political violence and arson will keep Westerners away more than anything other than economical reasons.

[sotsira]

Its very silly indeed to equate the airport shutdown with weeks of live gunfire, bombs, and FIRE in Bangkok, led by the THAKSIN reds.

Yes but which one cost the country the most $$$$?

[eezergood]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

Thai tourism is suffering because of the exchange rate, the financial crisis and the high cost of oil (ie jet fuel). The prospect of protests after the election may also affect the summer tourist season.

If you say so.

While there are errors in the article (regarding total number of coups/attempted coups etc) The article did not make the error that bkkorupcountry has made regarding tourism. Overall numbers are up. There is a shift in where people are traveling from. Political stuff has had little to do with the changes and finances has had more to do with the changes.

Overall numbers are up? Perhaps the 'islands', but certainly not in BKK or Patts!

[ginjag]

Quote: "Last year the Reds brought Bangkok to a standstill with a two month-long demonstration that drew an estimated 100,000 people at its peak, and ended in an army crackdown that left more than 90 people dead."

Shame that the reporter did not mention how the PAD brought THE COUNTRY to a standstill with it's occupation of the airport. Thailand tourism is still suffering today due to this.

I didn't realise that the "Yellow Shirts" have overtaken the Democrats even.... tsk tsk.

Estimated ###### 100,000 ??? who. local people = reds= army ?? tourists. Did you mention demonstration==shouldn't have been honest and said OCCUPATION ..had it been a demo and not a seizure of Bkk armed demo's are not the thing-looting burning also are not demo's--- This had more to do with the tourism than the airport closure. That was opened again and Asian numbers of tourists have vastly increased.

I also do NOT condone the action of Pad with the airport disruption BUT no one was killed and nothing was burnt to the ground and guns and weapons were not the force.

[jdinasia]

Overall numbers are up? Perhaps the 'islands', but certainly not in BKK or Patts!

Yes, overall numbers are up. I am not sure that your assumption regarding where is correct. As to Sotsira's post ---- I think the political violence of the reds cost the country the most both in the short-term and in the longer term. It certainly cost the most in terms of damage. The image of Thailand got dinged by both but days and days of reporting about violence in the capitol certainly hurt worse than passengers stranded for about a week. Other countries have had similar results from airport strikes etc.

The SET has taken a beating lately due to the fear of more political violence that would probably account for more loss than the rally at the airport did, all on its own.

[eezergood]

Overall numbers are up? Perhaps the 'islands', but certainly not in BKK or Patts!

Yes, overall numbers are up. I am not sure that your assumption regarding where is correct. As to Sotsira's post ---- I think the political violence of the reds cost the country the most both in the short-term and in the longer term. It certainly cost the most in terms of damage. The image of Thailand got dinged by both but days and days of reporting about violence in the capitol certainly hurt worse than passengers stranded for about a week. Other countries have had similar results from airport strikes etc.

The SET has taken a beating lately due to the fear of more political violence that would probably account for more loss than the rally at the airport did, all on its own.

Not to provoke an argument but where did you get your data from, regarding the numbers of toursits? I work in hotels and my partner in tourism and we both have 'felt' a distinct drop in business. Perhaps this is our geographical location or out respective demongraphics????

[whybother]

Its very silly indeed to equate the airport shutdown with weeks of live gunfire, bombs, and FIRE in Bangkok, led by the THAKSIN reds.

Yes but which one cost the country the most $$?

Are there any statistics on the cost of the 2009 and 2010 red shirt protests? If so, please point me to them. Until then, who knows.

[jdinasia]

Overall numbers are up? Perhaps the 'islands', but certainly not in BKK or Patts!

Yes, overall numbers are up. I am not sure that your assumption regarding where is correct. As to Sotsira's post ---- I think the political violence of the reds cost the country the most both in the short-term and in the longer term. It certainly cost the most in terms of damage. The image of Thailand got dinged by both but days and days of reporting about violence in the capitol certainly hurt worse than passengers stranded for about a week. Other countries have had similar results from airport strikes etc.

The SET has taken a beating lately due to the fear of more political violence that would probably account for more loss than the rally at the airport did, all on its own.

Not to provoke an argument but where did you get your data from, regarding the numbers of toursits? I work in hotels and my partner in tourism and we both have 'felt' a distinct drop in business. Perhaps this is our geographical location or out respective demongraphics????

Government numbers ....

I would assume demographics more than location. Increases in asian tourists, Russians etc ... if your target is Europeans and Yanks etc then it would likely be felt more. Out of curiosity when did you feel this drop as I know businessmen in Pattaya that have said they haven't had a "high season" per se since 2005. I know others that are doing quite well.