Election Outlook In The Deep South

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Election outlook in the deep South

By Don Pathan

The Nation

While the support base for the Democrats in the deep South has always been Thai Buddhists and ethnic Chinese residents of municipal areas, ethnic Malay Muslim politicians, many of whom are veterans, continue to reinvent and realign themselves.

An equilibrium has yet to be found, especially after the 2004 Tak Bai massacre that marked the end of the Wadah faction, a political clique that was once considered a force to be reckoned with. Today, Wadah has split and its members have divided themselves between the Matubhum Party of former coup plotter Sonthi Boonyaratglin and the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, headed by fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister Yingluck.

Local officials monitoring political developments think about five of the 11 seats in the deep South will go to the Democrats and the remaining six will be split between Pheu Thai, Matubhum and Chart Thai Pattana. Here is a breakdown:

YALA

Certain that his support from the Thai Buddhist and Chinese community is sealed, the Democrat Party's Prasert Pongsuwannasiri has been using the Malay language to appeal to Muslim voters in Yala's Constituency 1. His competitor, Pheu Thai's Earfan Sulong, on the other hand, has been playing Thai luk thung (country music).

Prasert is a veteran and is expected to win by a big margin.

Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, de-facto leader of the local Pheu Thai faction, will send Earfan to certain defeat because he can't risk seeing his blood relative, Sukarno Matha, humiliated by a Prasert victory, said a local official. Besides, it was Prasert who helped Wan Noor enter politics, hence his decision to spare the Democrat from a stronger candidate.

Sukarno will instead go to Yala Constituency 2 in Raman district, where he will face off with Abdulkarim Dengrakina. Both are former MPs and veteran politicians who are expected to pull out whatever cards they have to ensure victory. A third candidate deserving an honourable mention is the Mathubhum Party's Mahamah-ameen Munah, former president of Yala's provincial council.

Pheu Thai's Burahanudin Useng will face off with veteran Narong Duding in Constituency 3, a hotbed of insurgency. Both are veterans with strong support bases. Narong is tight with the Chinese and Thai-Buddhist community in Betong and up to the Bannang Sata district, but Burahanudin has the backing of local religious leaders, who can strongly influence local Malay Muslim voters. He will have to keep a close watch on Matubhum's Abdul-hafiz Hileh, who will draw from the same support base. The end result could very well be Naron coming out in front.

PATTANI

Pattani Constituency 1 will see Pheu Thai's Adilan Alee-ishoh, a well-known human rights lawyer, going up against Anwar Saleh of the Democrat Party. Local politician and former reporter Muhammed Pares Lohasan is making his debut in national politics under the banner of the Chart Thai Pattana Party. The party is banking on Pares' well-mannered personality and access to local residents, but this might not be enough to woo sufficient votes for a victory. Local officials are banking on Anwar's claims that the Democrat support base in the municipality area is as strong as ever. However, no one is overlooking Arun Benchalak of Bhum Jai Thai, a widely known and well-connected individual with a great deal of experience in local politics.

Observers in the deep South think Pattani's Constituency 2 will definitely go to Isma-ae Benibrahim of the Democrat Party. Isma-ae is the son the late Amin Tohmeena, the older brother of Den Tohmeena, a founding member of the now-defunct Wadah faction. Isma-ae's support base is made up of both Muslims and Buddhists, as well as Islamic religious leaders.

Constituency 3 will see Bhum Jai Thai's Nimukta Waba face off against Matubhum's Anumat Susaroh. Nimukta is a manager at a local private Islamic school and is hoping that fellow educators will support him. But Anumat is strong at the grassroots level, with village headmen as his support base.

In Constituency 4, Bhum Jai Thai's Sumut Benchalak is expected to come out ahead, with second place likely to be a close race between Matubhum's Muk Sulaiman and the Democrat Party's Sata Awae-keuchi.

NARATHIWAT

Narathiwat Constituency 1 will see Matubhum's Paisan Toyib, manager of a local private Islamic school, make a strong showing. But local officials in the region said the Democrats' Hasem Kujinaming, who enjoys support from Pattani municipality and Tak Bai residents, should not be ruled out.

Constituency 2 could see Matubhum's Somrot Walong ousting other strong contenders such as the Democrats' Surachet Wae-asae who, like other Democrat members, enjoys strong support from Thai Buddhists and ethnic Chinese. The race in this constituency is expected to be tight.

Constituency 3 is extremely restive, but veteran politician Najmudin Umar of Matubhum is expected to come out ahead, while Chart Thai Pattana's Ni-aris Jetapiwat should take second.

-- The Nation 2011-06-29

Constituency 4 will likely be won by Chart Thai Pattana's Watchara Yawor-hasan, a veteran politician with extensive reach. But don't count out the Democrats' Che-aming Toetayong, director of local football club Narathiwat United.

[OzMick]

"............... Pheu Thai, headed by fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister Yingluck."

the last 15 letters appear to be superfluous and deceptive of the true situation