Reverse Gear On Amnesty: It's Just A Strategic Retreat; Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Reverse gear on amnesty: It's just a strategic retreat

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

It can best be described as Pheu Thai back-pedalling, a clear sign of a "strategic retreat" - to fight one political battle at a time.

In politics, timing is everything. First things first. The immediate goal is to win, and win big in this Sunday's election. And anything related to an amnesty plan will have to be shelved for the moment.

Thaksin Shinawatra may have made it public on several occasions that he intends to come home in November this year, suggesting that he is confident he won't have to face his two-year jail term if his party heads the next government with his sister Yingluck as prime minister. But the proposed amnesty could boomerang and may dent the margin of victory for the party.

Pheu Thai therefore beat a big retreat with a statement last week making it clear for the first time that the party won't pursue amnesty for its de facto leader.

The move came the day after Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva launched a verbal offensive at Ratchaprasong Intersection on June 23, aimed at Pheu Thai's most vulnerable point - the general belief that its primary goals in winning this election are to absolve the former premier of guilt, to abolish the court verdict and find ways to return to him the Bt46 billion in assets seized by court order.

If Pheu Thai were to win a landslide victory so that it could assume almost absolute power, the controversial amnesty issue would have to be put aside, at least for the time being.

But didn't some of the party's leaders - and even Thaksin himself -suggest that a blanket amnesty would be on the way? Blanket amnesty is one thing; a move that could be seen to benefit only Thaksin is another.

In fact, Pheu Thai's nominal head, Yongyudh Vichaidit, was compelled to declare during a six-party debate that the party's executive committee "had never resolved to pursue an amnesty bill, and any remark on this issue by any party member is merely a personal view".

He must have been referring to, among others, repeated comments by Chalerm Yoobamrung, another senior party executive, who made it his personal mission to trumpet the "Thaksin shall return" call as the top priority in Pheu Thai's campaign. But he has been conspicuously absent from the party's public line-up since Yingluck was named leader for the election campaign.

But what did Thaksin mean when he told several foreign reporters that he planned to return to Bangkok later this year - to join the celebration for His Majesty's 84th birthday and to attend his daughter's wedding in December?

Yingluck, trying to deflect the negative impact of that statement, explained that her elder brother had merely "expressed his personal wishes as a father who obviously would very much like to be with his daughter on such an important day".

Downplaying the amnesty-for-Thaksin issue is also crucial for any Pheu Thai manipulation in inviting smaller parties to join a coalition. Having rejected Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai Party from any possible future association, Pheu Thai's leadership may have to make sure that Banharn's Chat Thai Pattana will find it politically unacceptable to join any other future coalition.

In fact, some Pheu Thai insiders will tell you off the record that they would like to see Thaksin remain in exile rather than come back here, since without the "big boss" directing the party's operations at home, they could still hold some real bargaining power. Of course, publicly they will invariably argue for "fairness" and "justice" for the former premier.

Pheu Thai's strategists want to fight one battle at a time. First, win a landslide victory. Then, form a government in which the party has an absolute say. Amnesty could come "when the political atmosphere is right".

"We are not in a hurry to get Thaksin back now," one senior Pheu Thai adviser told a reporter.

On the very same day, Chalerm Yoobamrung declared: "The draft bill to offer Thaksin amnesty to bring him home has been drawn up. If Pheu Thai forms the next government, it will be immediately presented to the House for approval."

But the official tone on the issue is: the less it is discussed publicly, the better the chances of winning the election. And if you win big, who can stop you from doing what you promised not to do?

Does Thaksin approve of that long-drawn-out strategy? In principle, he knows that's the only option. But one never can fully understand his mood and psyche. He is an impatient man. Making haste slowly has never been his forte.

-- The Nation 2011-06-30

[OzMick]

"And if you win big, who can stop you from doing what you promised not to do?"

We all know who, but can PTP claim a mandate for something they swore not to do?

[RogueExpat]

"And if you win big, who can stop you from doing what you promised not to do?"

We all know who, but can PTP claim a mandate for something they swore not to do?

Of course thay can.

"We didn't say it like that, we said it like this, however, because you are now confused, lets forget about what we said, and now we'll approach it like this."

[Latindancer]

The same sort of thing was no problem for John Howard in Australia. After a lot of debate, he finally said that if he was elected, there would never, EVER be a GST introduced. This was his exact catchcry. "Never, EVER"..........

Then after his election as Prime Minister, he went ahead and introduced it. People then re-elected him twice more.

Edited June 30, 2011 by Latindancer

[hammered]

If you go round the villages the people that are voting for PTP are doing so because they want Thaksin back. They even want him back as PM. Of course the PTP can do it if they want, but as that will lead to massive unrest that their own business backers (or the business backers of their enemies) wont enjoy it is more likely they will do a deal, but from a position of strength having come out top in an election

[Steely Dan]

I suspect we all know what the cause of the next coup is going to be and sadly if I'm right I suspect the amount of anger in the Country wont allow a civilian government to be reinstated for a long while. Worrying times ahead.

[Thai at Heart]

Coups a coming

[letitbe]

I suspect we all know what the cause of the next coup is going to be and sadly if I'm right I suspect the amount of anger in the Country wont allow a civilian government to be reinstated for a long while. Worrying times ahead.

lesser of 2 evils in my opinion. I hope it happens if it has to. Im more worried about Taksin in this country than army deciding who can govern and less worried about it becoming a Burma.

[whybother]

The same sort of thing was no problem for John Howard in Australia. After a lot of debate, he finally said that if he was elected, there would never, EVER be a GST introduced. This was his exact catchcry. "Never, EVER"..........

Then after his election as Prime Minister, he went ahead and introduced it. People then re-elected him twice more.

OT .. but a slight clarification. John Howard said "Never" before the 1996 election, but then proposed it during campaigning for the 1998 election.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goods_and_Services_Tax_(Australia)#1990s)

[whybother]

Unless PTP get a simple majority, they won't have a "mandate" to bring Thaksin back.

But that won't stop them trying, even if they say that that's not what they're going to do.

[lungmi]

If you go round the villages the people that are voting for PTP are doing so because they want Thaksin back. They even want him back as PM. Of course the PTP can do it if they want, but as that will lead to massive unrest that their own business backers (or the business backers of their enemies) wont enjoy it is more likely they will do a deal, but from a position of strength having come out top in an election

Serious International Press no more speaks about a fight between "poor against rich " but as a fight between "new rich and old rich". It confirms your post.

[Steely Dan]

I suspect we all know what the cause of the next coup is going to be and sadly if I'm right I suspect the amount of anger in the Country wont allow a civilian government to be reinstated for a long while. Worrying times ahead.

lesser of 2 evils in my opinion. I hope it happens if it has to. Im more worried about Taksin in this country than army deciding who can govern and less worried about it becoming a Burma.

Thaksin would in my oppinion start a purge and score settling/power consolidating would lead to loads of internal strife. Whilst I don't want Thaksin back I do suspect that in the current world geopolitical climate Thailand could not afford another coup or the reprocussions from external sanctions may be even worse than having Thaksin back. An unhappy set menu of choices ahead, I'll grant you that.

[DP25]

If you go round the villages the people that are voting for PTP are doing so because they want Thaksin back. They even want him back as PM. Of course the PTP can do it if they want, but as that will lead to massive unrest that their own business backers (or the business backers of their enemies) wont enjoy it is more likely they will do a deal, but from a position of strength having come out top in an election

Serious International Press no more speaks about a fight between "poor against rich " but as a fight between "new rich and old rich". It confirms your post.

Pretty much all international press portrays this conflict as poor vs rich from what I've seen. Thaksin's international lobbyists have been very successful.

[OzMick]

Unless PTP get a simple majority, they won't have a "mandate" to bring Thaksin back.

But that won't stop them trying, even if they say that that's not what they're going to do.

Even with a large majority, how will they have a mandate to do what they have expressly said is NOT policy? Claim everybody knew we were lying?

[MaiChai]

I suspect we all know what the cause of the next coup is going to be and sadly if I'm right I suspect the amount of anger in the Country wont allow a civilian government to be reinstated for a long while. Worrying times ahead.

lesser of 2 evils in my opinion. I hope it happens if it has to. Im more worried about Taksin in this country than army deciding who can govern and less worried about it becoming a Burma.

Thaksin would in my oppinion start a purge and score settling/power consolidating would lead to loads of internal strife. Whilst I don't want Thaksin back I do suspect that in the current world geopolitical climate Thailand could not afford another coup or the reprocussions from external sanctions may be even worse than having Thaksin back. An unhappy set menu of choices ahead, I'll grant you that.

I would say the poor and uneducated have been manipulated. The Western press assumes in a democracy the population have a basic enough level of education to form an opinion on who to vote for. This simply isn't the case here. Peoples hearts are souls are bought with money and blatant lies and propaganda. Most uneducated people here will follow someone else's advice on who to vote for; they cannot make the decision themselves.

[lungmi]

If you go round the villages the people that are voting for PTP are doing so because they want Thaksin back. They even want him back as PM. Of course the PTP can do it if they want, but as that will lead to massive unrest that their own business backers (or the business backers of their enemies) wont enjoy it is more likely they will do a deal, but from a position of strength having come out top in an election

Serious International Press no more speaks about a fight between "poor against rich " but as a fight between "new rich and old rich". It confirms your post.

Pretty much all international press portrays this conflict as poor vs rich from what I've seen. Thaksin's international lobbyists have been very successful.

"Le Monde" and "Le Monde Diplomatique" and some others are "serious" International Press. "Asia Times" has interesting comments, "Al Jazeera online" too.

[Buchholz]

It can best be described as Pheu Thai back-pedalling

Something that TRT/PPP/PTT have been doing for years.

Pheu Thai back-pedals all the time with just who their Party Leader is and who was going to become their # 1 Party-list candidate for PM.

They should have a big *U-turn* sign for their Party logo on the ballots. Then everyone could easily identify the Party.

.

[henryalleman]

Anyone who know how the system works upcountry knows that it is the Phue ban (chief villager) who decide how the villagers must vote.

last weeken I even witnessed when the Phue Ban of some village near Rayong distributed a letter to explaine the villagers how en who to vote.

This is one of the reasons that Mr. T handed over the 1 milion baht per village in the hand's of the Pue Ban who could decide how to spend it.

And thats why this same people will do everything to get him back, they hoping for more of the same.

In short this election is about Mr. T and his future en nothing else. And hes dreaming because he will not allowed to come back. Even the Phue Thai win with a landslide as long they don't have 51% of the parlementary seats they will not be able to form a government.

Does anybody think that Banhaan(Mr. ATM), Newin or Purachai to name only a few will go in a coalition with Phue Thai? They are much to intelligent to do that.

Everybody who knows a lite bit about Thai Politics knows what I mean.

Edited June 30, 2011 by henryalleman

[Siripon]

Reporters asked Yinglak if it was true the present Defence Minister, Mr Prawit, had flown abroad to meet Thaksin.

She said Thaksin had nothing to do with this election!!!!!!!

[animatic]

"Strategic retreat."

Just another scam on the people.

Baldface lies until they win the election.

It's all in the wording