Signs Look Good For Yingluck

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Signs look good for Yingluck

By Piyanart Srivalo

In the final days before the upcoming election, all political parties are working flat-out on their campaigns.

Yingluck Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, has worked hard on her campaign in a bid to win the most seats or even secure a landslide. However, she has had to skip many of her campaign appointments after reportedly complaining of being tired.

But she seems to be determined. If there was an urgent campaign date, she was willing to make it. For example, she changed a visit from Phrae to Nan, which was hit by severe floods. Her trip was regarded as an effort to go one up on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Yingluck enjoys the strong backing of her brother. Fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has set up a 24-hour war room at his home in Dubai. He checks each Pheu Thai candidate's popularity all day, every day.

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names. Yingluck sometimes makes a mistake when introducing candidates. He always calls them and asks them about the situation in their constituencies," a source from Pheu Thai Party said.

The source said the latest poll from Pheu Thai showed they would win 267 seats. The number has reportedly satisfied Thaksin to the point where he has decided not to spend much more money on the campaign.

The Bhum Jai Thai Party of Newin Chidchob hoped to keep and win more seats in Northeastern provinces, its stronghold. It aimed to win around 40 seats. According to its latest poll, it will now win only 30 seats. Bhum Jai Thai has used every tactic to try to beat Pheu Thai.

"It's tough for us in the Northeast contest. Bhum Jai Thai gave it their all. Our boss [Thaksin] thinks differently as he thinks our popularity is on the rise so he doesn't want to spend more," a Pheu Thai MP candidate in the Northeast said.

For the Democrat Party, Abhisit has done things people will only see during an election campaign. He stayed overnight at a temple in the Northeastern province of Yasothon. He turned himself into a "temple child", an assistant to a revered monk, receiving alms early in the morning.

However, the Democrats did not seem to achieve much from one of their last campaign pushes at the Ratchaprasong intersection in Bangkok last week. The "remove Thaksin's venom" campaign worked well with the Democrats' fan club, but not with people planning on voting "No", whom the Democrats had targeted.

What made things worse was Yingluck choosing to stay quiet and not counterattacking the Democrat campaign. Instead, Pheu Thai chose to emphasise its policies.

If the Democrats' last big rally at Royal Plaza on July 1 fails to deliver a knockout punch, it could be difficult for the Democrats to boost their popularity and get more votes.

Although it is almost certain that Pheu Thai will win the election, it's not certain that they will be able to form the government. It all depends on the number of seats the party wins. If the margin between Pheu Thai and the Democrats is big, it should not be a problem.

Yingluck seems to be confident. She told foreign media who interviewed her that she would hold a press conference to say thank you for a Pheu Thai victory on the night of July 3.

-- The Nation 2011-06-30

[eezergood]

Amazing Thailand!

[janverbeem]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

[geriatrickid]

I'm sure TVF's resident PTP and Thaksin haters will soon arrive to offer their nasty views. Fortunately, Alea iacta est the die is cast and soon Thailand will have to confront a stark reality. The people that are supporting PTP comprise a large and important part of the nation. Whether some people want to believe it or not, these people are important and their views must be taken into consideration. Unless the Democrats and their allies have a healthy majority, another Democrat led government will not be seen as legitimate and the troubles will continue.

However, that is not the stark reality. Rather, it is the state of the nation's finances. Lost in the election was the acknowledgement of the toll corruption has taken on the growth of the nation and its financial stability. Whether it is a PTP or Democrat led government, the plague of corruption and bloated spending must be confronted. Not one political leader spoke out decisively on the subject. Not one political leader offered a plan to deal with corruption. One need only look at Greece to understand my point. Greece had played a shell game for years with finance minister after finance minister claiming the nation''s finances were healthy. it wasn't too long ago that the Greek finance minister received accolades just like Thailand's finance minister. Expensive unsustainable programs were promised and undertaken all paid for with borrowed money. Corruption in Greece is as bad as it is in Thailand. Tax evasion in Greece is similar to that in Thailand. I do not believe that the programs promised by PTP and the Democrats can be funded under the current financial structure. Some academics far more aware of the situation than I have spoken out, just as some academics spoke out in Greece. No one wanted to listen in Greece and no one wants to listen in Thailand.

Sooner or later the bubble will burst and it will happen whether it is a PTP or a Democrat led government. If people thought the Redshirt protests were bad, they aint seen nothing.

[princejohnjay]

"For the Democrat Party, Abhisit has done things people will only see during an election campaign. He stayed overnight at a temple in the Northeastern province of Yasothon. He turned himself into a "temple child", an assistant to a revered monk, receiving alms early in the morning".

Crying, begging for votes, attacking your opposition verbally, sleeping in the temple and turning to a temple child...How desperate this dude is to win the election and yet his desperation isn't still working at all...Only in Thailand i have seen different styles of election campaign and posters. Amazing Thailand

[KKvampire]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

Edited June 30, 2011 by KKvampire

[1bbcd5]

Amazing,really good.

[geriatrickid]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

And no one in the Thai media has really questioned the finance minister's budget projections either. He has a pretty smile too.

In the west, the media would closely examine a finance minister's budget papers. Oh wait, they don't have the same provision of documents in Thailand. Oooooooopsie.

[ib1b4]

Yes the Bhum Jai is trying very hard in the northeast they were in our moo barn yesterday handing out 500 baht for the voting rights , so far they have been the only ones so far to hand out money.

[rubl]

Yingluck Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, has worked hard on her campaign in a bid to win the most seats or even secure a landslide. However, she has had to skip many of her campaign appointments after reportedly complaining of being tired.

No comment, just keep smiling

[hellodolly]

What further proof do we need that Thailand needs a different education system one that will teach people how to think. What other country would allow a condemned criminal who takes up citizenship in another country and will not even enter the country to be there PM.

Yes there are countries that would allow convicted criminal's to be there leader but they have to be a citizen and in the country.

Make no mistake about it the people are voting for Thaksin not Yingluck. One would have to be pretty deluded to think other wise. She is tired because she has worked very hard at dodging issues. I have to give her credit She is good at crying and smiling.

[Emptyset]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

She's been discussing her economic policies constantly. Less how she's going to pay for them though. Should Geriatrickid turn out to be right, and these programs can't be paid for, then it's surely the best thing Thaksin-haters can hope for - a PT government that fails in a big way, either by failing to deliver what they promised, or by bankrupting the country in the process of delivering them. It would certainly ruin Thaksin's reputation as a competent manager and economic guru. But people said TRT couldn't pay for their programs, yet the country ran budget surpluses for a couple of years and by the time the coup deposed Thaksin, the debt to GDP had declined from the 58% at the start of his first term, to 41%. Let's see.

[hellodolly]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

And no one in the Thai media has really questioned the finance minister's budget projections either. He has a pretty smile too.

In the west, the media would closely examine a finance minister's budget papers. Oh wait, they don't have the same provision of documents in Thailand. Oooooooopsie.

You ha e been away to long. The west does not examine the finance minister's budget papers. It looks at what it wants to and ignores the rest. And what has the west got to do with it any how. Is this not about Yingluck evading the issue while she tries to pretend she has a good policy. If the Thai media wanted to know about the finance minister's budget papers they would ask him. They are not in the least bit interested. If he was running for PM they would be.

You really appear to be in between a rock and a hard place you don't like Abhist and are afraid to come rite out and support Thaksin.

[otherstuff1957]

Chuwit was on TV last night pointing out that the Thai economy simply can't afford most of the programs that are being proposed by the major parties. Though he did admit that they Democrats are closer to reality than PT or BJT.

[RogueExpat]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

She's been discussing her economic policies constantly. Less how she's going to pay for them though. Should Geriatrickid turn out to be right, and these programs can't be paid for, then it's surely the best thing Thaksin-haters can hope for - a PT government that fails in a big way, either by failing to deliver what they promised, or by bankrupting the country in the process of delivering them. It would certainly ruin Thaksin's reputation as a competent manager and economic guru. But people said TRT couldn't pay for their programs, yet the country ran budget surpluses for a couple of years and by the time the coup deposed Thaksin, the debt to GDP had declined from the 58% at the start of his first term, to 41%. Let's see.

The point has been completely missed. PT does not care if they can implement promised policies. Once they are in office, they will implement whatever they feel like, and the rest will get scrapped with a whole lot of mumbled excuses, such as "the astrologer thinks this [insert whatever stupid, cockbrained vote buying promise here] is a bad idea".

Whatever they do, or don't implement will hardly affect their voter base, and will not ruin Thaksin's reputation amongst his supporters. After all, whatever the little Emperor does is right, even when he is wrong.

I suppose we will all see at the end of the day, if PT can form a government.

[Ricardo]

But people said TRT couldn't pay for their programs, yet the country ran budget surpluses for a couple of years and by the time the coup deposed Thaksin, the debt to GDP had declined from the 58% at the start of his first term, to 41%. Let's see.

Given several years of a booming global-economy, is it all all possible that Thailand's GDP had grown somewhat, in the intervening-period ?

[EnhancePlus]

Soon she'll be skipping all her campaign promises too

[Roadman]

But people said TRT couldn't pay for their programs, yet the country ran budget surpluses for a couple of years and by the time the coup deposed Thaksin, the debt to GDP had declined from the 58% at the start of his first term, to 41%. Let's see.

Given several years of a booming global-economy, is it all all possible that Thailand's GDP had grown somewhat, in the intervening-period ?

Most countries GDP's improved in the solid years that occurred during the Thaksin reign. One for Thailand's GDP's improvement and three for me...

What has slowed Thailand's economy has been the cost of Thaksin's war on Bangkok.

Soon it could be one for Thailand GDP, three for bro Thaksie, and one for me.

[lungmi]

What further proof do we need that Thailand needs a different education system one that will teach people how to think. What other country would allow a condemned criminal who takes up citizenship in another country and will not even enter the country to be there PM.

Yes there are countries that would allow convicted criminal's to be there leader but they have to be a citizen and in the country.

Make no mistake about it the people are voting for Thaksin not Yingluck. One would have to be pretty deluded to think other wise. She is tired because she has worked very hard at dodging issues. I have to give her credit She is good at crying and smiling.

She is the misused younger sister. Nervous breakdown is programmed.

[lungmi]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

And no one in the Thai media has really questioned the finance minister's budget projections either. He has a pretty smile too.

In the west, the media would closely examine a finance minister's budget papers. Oh wait, they don't have the same provision of documents in Thailand. Oooooooopsie.

You ha e been away to long. The west does not examine the finance minister's budget papers. It looks at what it wants to and ignores the rest. And what has the west got to do with it any how. Is this not about Yingluck evading the issue while she tries to pretend she has a good policy. If the Thai media wanted to know about the finance minister's budget papers they would ask him. They are not in the least bit interested. If he was running for PM they would be.

You really appear to be in between a rock and a hard place you don't like Abhist and are afraid to come rite out and support Thaksin.

K. Korn was a proposed candidate for the IMF by Japan and Singapore to represent the interests of developping countries. He declined.

His international reputation is at a high level.

[whybother]

"For the Democrat Party, Abhisit has done things people will only see during an election campaign. He stayed overnight at a temple in the Northeastern province of Yasothon. He turned himself into a "temple child", an assistant to a revered monk, receiving alms early in the morning".

Crying, begging for votes, attacking your opposition verbally, sleeping in the temple and turning to a temple child...How desperate this dude is to win the election and yet his desperation isn't still working at all...Only in Thailand i have seen different styles of election campaign and posters. Amazing Thailand

And I'm sure Yingluck does these sorts of things every weekend.

[moe666]

If PTP win they will be banned due to a banned Thaksin interfering with the election. PTP and red shirts wins set aside O sad to bad

The way it is looking PTP could have won without Thaksin putting his nose into election and they would have been home free but as he cannot keep his trap out of it for five minutes he may have cause PTP win to be set aside

[xminator]

What further proof do we need that Thailand needs a different education system one that will teach people how to think. What other country would allow a condemned criminal who takes up citizenship in another country and will not even enter the country to be there PM.

Don't worry, Thai voters are educated enough to see trough the propaganda ministry. They think for themselves and their vote is also a opinion on the crimes the condemned and convicted criminal where condemned and convicted for. In the end that is democracy. Its the people that elect politicians that make laws that the court is charged with upholding. Not the other way around like so many TVF armchair generals seems to think. The condemned and convicted where not condemned and convicted by the people, only the army that made the rules that the court used to convict the condemned.

I will be pleasantly surprised if PT still have the lead after polls close. I wont be surprised if democrats make a "miracle" landslide out of nowhere. Part of the democratic process is for opposition to accept defeat and try to do better in 4 years. It would be great for Thailand if the next elected government, PT or Democrat, where allowed to sit for 4 years without a court coup or military coup.

[OzMick]

What further proof do we need that Thailand needs a different education system one that will teach people how to think. What other country would allow a condemned criminal who takes up citizenship in another country and will not even enter the country to be there PM.

Don't worry, Thai voters are educated enough to see trough the propaganda ministry. They think for themselves and their vote is also a opinion on the crimes the condemned and convicted criminal where condemned and convicted for. In the end that is democracy. Its the people that elect politicians that make laws that the court is charged with upholding. Not the other way around like so many TVF armchair generals seems to think. The condemned and convicted where not condemned and convicted by the people, only the army that made the rules that the court used to convict the condemned.

I will be pleasantly surprised if PT still have the lead after polls close. I wont be surprised if democrats make a "miracle" landslide out of nowhere. Part of the democratic process is for opposition to accept defeat and try to do better in 4 years. It would be great for Thailand if the next elected government, PT or Democrat, where allowed to sit for 4 years without a court coup or military coup.

"Don't worry, Thai voters are educated enough to see trough............"

I know it was a typo, but it was so dam_n accurate. If you've ever fed pigs you will immediately see the similarity to red shirts offered B20,000/tonne for rice. The fact that it is economically unsound and unviable matters not a whit. Wheeeeee! Thaksin!

[OzMick]

What further proof do we need that Thailand needs a different education system one that will teach people how to think. What other country would allow a condemned criminal who takes up citizenship in another country and will not even enter the country to be there PM.

Don't worry, Thai voters are educated enough to see trough the propaganda ministry. They think for themselves and their vote is also a opinion on the crimes the condemned and convicted criminal where condemned and convicted for. In the end that is democracy. Its the people that elect politicians that make laws that the court is charged with upholding. Not the other way around like so many TVF armchair generals seems to think. The condemned and convicted where not condemned and convicted by the people, only the army that made the rules that the court used to convict the condemned.

I will be pleasantly surprised if PT still have the lead after polls close. I wont be surprised if democrats make a "miracle" landslide out of nowhere. Part of the democratic process is for opposition to accept defeat and try to do better in 4 years. It would be great for Thailand if the next elected government, PT or Democrat, where allowed to sit for 4 years without a court coup or military coup.

AFAIK the laws used to convict Thaksin were in place before the coup, as were those used to dismiss Samak and disband TRT/PPP.

Your other line of thought is seriously flawed as well. If every administration was allowed to change laws and members of the judiciary at will, there would be legal and political chaos. That's why the judiciary is a separate arm of democracy, why supreme court judges are elected for life, and why countries have a constitution.

Or do you think that a popularly elected govt has the right to cancel laws against political corruption, and then back-date them to favour their party leader? If you do, be aware that there is another arm of the democratic system that that may have a different opinion.

[rixalex]

Don't worry, Thai voters are educated enough to see trough the propaganda ministry. They think for themselves and their vote is also a opinion on the crimes the condemned and convicted criminal where condemned and convicted for. In the end that is democracy. Its the people that elect politicians that make laws that the court is charged with upholding. Not the other way around like so many TVF armchair generals seems to think. The condemned and convicted where not condemned and convicted by the people, only the army that made the rules that the court used to convict the condemned.

I will be pleasantly surprised if PT still have the lead after polls close. I wont be surprised if democrats make a "miracle" landslide out of nowhere. Part of the democratic process is for opposition to accept defeat and try to do better in 4 years. It would be great for Thailand if the next elected government, PT or Democrat, where allowed to sit for 4 years without a court coup or military coup.

Propaganda has come from both sides, and if all Thai voters were educated enough to see through it, i doubt the people spending all the time and effort in circulating the propaganda, would be wasting their time.

[gregb]

PT will likely win and form the next government. Nobody will try and interfere with that if that is how the numbers work out. Of course, if PT doesn't get the numbers then they'll have to sit in opposition, but if you believe the polls, and there is no reason not to, they'll get just enough to form a coalition with a couple of small parties and leave the Democrats and BJT out in the cold. It won't be a large margin, but probably enough.

Where the PT will run into trouble is if they try and push their amnesty idea and return Thaksin. In that case, Yingluck will be retiring well before her 4 years are up. If the reds can behave themselves, act like mature adults, and not try and pardon the fugitive, then they have a legitimate chance of staying in power. But if show contempt for Thailand by trying to pardon the demagogue, they will find themselves tossed out by any means necessary.

There are limits to what you can do in a democracy, even with a majority consensus. Pardoning despots is not one of those things. If they stay away from that, they'll be fine. I don't believe the PT is any more corrupt than what the Democrats will be if they have to hold a coalition with the BJT. From that perspective, one isn't worse than another.

But Thaksin? He will not be allowed to return no matter what the PT thinks. They don't have that much power.

[rixalex]

It would be great for Thailand if the next elected government, PT or Democrat, where allowed to sit for 4 years without a court coup or military coup.

You conveniently forgot the most recent undemocratic attempt to unseat a legitimately elected government, and it didn't involve the courts or the military. It might have failed but whether that discourages a repeated attempt, should the outcome go against the favour of a certain group, i wouldn't be so sure.

[MunterHunter]

Lets see how the Reds/PTP (yes, they are one and the same, i don't give i fig if you disagree with me or not) handle the inevitable street riots and protests if they gain power...

Shoe on the other foot... the circle continues... blood on the streets etc etc

One thing is a dead cert (pun intended) - who ever wins this election, Thailand is in for a rough ride... again

[gregb]

Lets see how the Reds/PTP ... handle the inevitable street riots and protests if they gain power...

History MunterHunter. We've already been down this road before.

The protests won't materialize until they try and whitewash Thaksin. Nothing else is polarizing enough to bring people together en masse. (Fiddling with the military is also off limits, but that won't bring out street protests.)

But you are correct. These guys will try it, because they have no sense of responsibility to the country, and they will be shoved out on their asses for it. My guess is the courts will do the shoving in the face of crippling public protests by people in shirts any color but red. However, it could be the military as well. Either way, they won't last long if they don't divorce themselves from the demagogue in exile.

If they are smart and leave the fugitive to sulk overseas (and don't tamper with the military in a big way), they can probably serve out their term. I'll bet cash money though none of those red shirts/PT are that smart. They are going to try to destroy the country. It is in their nature.