Signs Look Good For Yingluck

[pedro01]

It will be an interesting weekend.

I wonder if the "PT Will Win" message in the polls and the press will make their voters a little more complacent and make the opposition voters a little more eager to get out there and vote.

[chuang]

PTP is sure to win the coming election with Yingluck as the PM..whether they are allowed to govern is another thing..

In amazing Thailand, those who got elected are not allow to govern, whereas those who are not elected are allow to govern..

[kitiya1980]

How about Chuvit everyone? i find him very interesting haha always make me laugh

[fritter1970]

I am a fortune teller.

Yingluck wins election.

Yingluck takes power.

Army loses face as everyone knows they hate Thaksin.

Army boots out Yingluck.

Army installs "interim" government.

*By the way, I only charge 500 Baht per minute for my fortune telling services. Feel free to contact me if you need to know anything about the future.

[hyperdimension]

Propaganda has come from both sides, and if all Thai voters were educated enough to see through it, i doubt the people spending all the time and effort in circulating the propaganda, would be wasting their time.

Thaksin has been using quite a team of lobbyists to create and spread propaganda in order to try to achieve his own goals. Can we expect the expendable pawns to understand what's really going on?

Barbour Griffith & Rogers Lobbying Report (2011-01-20)

Provide strategic counsel on U.S. government policy and assist with advancing the individual's desire to promote democracy in Southeast Asia.

Amsterdam & Peroff LLP Lobbying Report (2010-10-20)

Counsel and guidance with respect to Mr. Thaksin's interests in Washington, DC and abroad

Kobre & Kim LLP Lobbying Report (2010-07-19)

Baker Botts L.L.P. Lobbying Report (2007-08-14)

Develop and implement a strategic approach to the various international legal and political issues that confront Dr. Thaksin due to the coup of September 19. The firm will monitor the evolution of US polices towards the interim government in Thailand or the Administration's position regarding attempts by Dr. Thaksin's return to Thailand and may subsequently undertake contacts as necessary to ensure that such policies remain consistent with those currently in place.

Daniel J. Edelman (2007-01-25)

Source: Corporate-funded "People's" Movement

Edited June 30, 2011 by hyperdimension

[noahvail]

Excellent, hyperdiminesion. Thank you for posting those.

[rixalex]

PTP is sure to win the coming election with Yingluck as the PM..whether they are allowed to govern is another thing..

In amazing Thailand, those who got elected are not allow to govern, whereas those who are not elected are allow to govern..

Amazing Thailand? Not really.

Thailand is not unique in it being possible for those elected to not be allowed to govern. America for example has the right to impeach.

Just because a person or a party is elected, doesn't mean there should be no mechanism to get them out before their term has ended, in the event that they break the law.

[RogueExpat]

PTP is sure to win the coming election with Yingluck as the PM..whether they are allowed to govern is another thing..

In amazing Thailand, those who got elected are not allow to govern, whereas those who are not elected are allow to govern..

Amazing Thailand? Not really.

Thailand is not unique in it being possible for those elected to not be allowed to govern. America for example has the right to impeach.

Just because a person or a party is elected, doesn't mean there should be no mechanism to get them out before their term has ended, in the event that they break the law.

And this is the principal reason Thaksin got the boot last time round when he had an absolute majority in parliament. He was attempting to remove all the mechanisms that deal with corrupt Prime Ministers who break, bend, change the law to their own ends.

[hellodolly]

PTP is sure to win the coming election with Yingluck as the PM..whether they are allowed to govern is another thing..

In amazing Thailand, those who got elected are not allow to govern, whereas those who are not elected are allow to govern..

Amazing Thailand? Not really.

Thailand is not unique in it being possible for those elected to not be allowed to govern. America for example has the right to impeach.

Just because a person or a party is elected, doesn't mean there should be no mechanism to get them out before their term has ended, in the event that they break the law.

Also Bush did not get the majority of the votes Al Gore did but the country is not set up as a democracy and so Bush was allowed to be President. Basically he was elected by the supreme court. Remember he was the President who tried to bring democracy to the world and when Hammas was elected he refused to recognize them.

To get back to the OP yes it does look good for Thaksin and not so good for Thailand.

Has he come out yet and said if he is not elected he will do every thing in his power to work with the government and make things better for Thailand. I think not he still has his hired assassins and a lot of out of work red shirts to carry out his wishes for him.

[themockrat]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

A senile 61 year old Thai would do a better job at running the country than a 46 year old Brit, don't you think?

[whybother]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

A senile 61 year old Thai would do a better job at running the country than a 46 year old Brit, don't you think?

I think the 46 yo Brit that you're referring to has done quite well running the country, especially considering the set backs he's had to deal with - getting over the problems caused by the yellow shirt protests, and then dealing with the red shirt protests of 2009 AND 2010, and all during the global financial crisis.

Rather different to someone who rode on the coattails of a global economic boom, and was still unable to make any long term improvements ... except for his own bank balance, of course.

Edited June 30, 2011 by whybother

[rogercw]

Assuming the PTP win as the polls show, either a plurality or an outright majority, it will be either the forth or fifth election in a row that Thaksin has won. It seems obvious that, right or wrong, he has more support than any other Thai politician. The large majority of Thai Visa members seem to oppose him but it is not our country and the Thais do not care too much about the opinion of the foreigners amoungst them.

If the PTP wins and the military or the courts once again overturn the election the probablity of massive discontent in the country will increase. We may end up spending our declining years in interesting times.

[lungmi]

PT will likely win and form the next government. Nobody will try and interfere with that if that is how the numbers work out. Of course, if PT doesn't get the numbers then they'll have to sit in opposition, but if you believe the polls, and there is no reason not to, they'll get just enough to form a coalition with a couple of small parties and leave the Democrats and BJT out in the cold. It won't be a large margin, but probably enough.

Where the PT will run into trouble is if they try and push their amnesty idea and return Thaksin. In that case, Yingluck will be retiring well before her 4 years are up. If the reds can behave themselves, act like mature adults, and not try and pardon the fugitive, then they have a legitimate chance of staying in power. But if show contempt for Thailand by trying to pardon the demagogue, they will find themselves tossed out by any means necessary.

There are limits to what you can do in a democracy, even with a majority consensus. Pardoning despots is not one of those things. If they stay away from that, they'll be fine. I don't believe the PT is any more corrupt than what the Democrats will be if they have to hold a coalition with the BJT. From that perspective, one isn't worse than another.

But Thaksin? He will not be allowed to return no matter what the PT thinks. They don't have that much power.

I have good friends from heart in my area. They vote PTP but no Thaksin, no Red Shirts. Thaksin cannot come back they told me, the Courts wait, some gunmen too.

They have informations (brother in law has a burned shop in Bangkok) about what happened and happens. They know that my family is "Dem", the local candidate to be PM is my friend. They accept and me, I accept them. This is the way for democracy.

Not give up, Thailand is not bad as many posters want to see Thailand.

[JemJem]

With the implementation of populist policies, the Thai economy is bound to suffer in a few years' time under a Yingluck (Thaksin)-led government. Also, there will be mass protests and possibly nasty incidents if amnesty for Thaksin is sought (which is highly likely to happen soon under a PTP-led government)and given. There will also be the possibility of a military coup.

What the Shinawatras care first of all is adding wealth to their empire.

Over to you, Yingluck (Thaksin) supporters.

Jem

[whybother]

Assuming the PTP win as the polls show, either a plurality or an outright majority, it will be either the forth or fifth election in a row that Thaksin has won. It seems obvious that, right or wrong, he has more support than any other Thai politician. The large majority of Thai Visa members seem to oppose him but it is not our country and the Thais do not care too much about the opinion of the foreigners amoungst them.

If the PTP wins and the military or the courts once again overturn the election the probablity of massive discontent in the country will increase. We may end up spending our declining years in interesting times.

TRT didn't win in 2001. They formed government with a coalition.

TRT won in 2005 after buying in smaller parties into TRT.

TRT won the 2006 election, but because there were a number of electorates that didn't elect a candidate, he couldn't form government.

The coup occurred while waiting for a new election (passed the prescribed waiting time). No election was overturned.

PPP didn't win the 2007. They formed government with a coalition.

The courts banned the PPP executive. By-elections were held to replace banned MPs. No election was overturned.

The PTP (being most of the unbanned ex-PPP MPs) could not hold their coalition together. No election was overturned.

The Democrats formed a coalition government.

What is likely to happen with this election is that PTP will win the most seats, but not a majority, so either they will form government with a coalition, or the Democrats will form government with a coalition. No overturning of the election by the courts or the military.

[lungmi]

I am a fortune teller.

Yingluck wins election.

Yingluck takes power.

Army loses face as everyone knows they hate Thaksin.

Army boots out Yingluck.

Army installs "interim" government.

*By the way, I only charge 500 Baht per minute for my fortune telling services. Feel free to contact me if you need to know anything about the future.

Check your future teller. If he can predict the month and the year he will pass away, you have a good one and you can believe him.

[Buchholz]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

A senile 61 year old Thai would do a better job at running the country than a 46 year old Brit, don't you think?

The 61 year-old is a Montenegrin, Nicaraguan, and Ugandan mix.

,

[cdnvic]

Post containing copyrighted image removed.

[Buchholz]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

A senile 61 year old Thai would do a better job at running the country than a 46 year old Brit, don't you think?

I think the 46 yo Brit that you're referring to has done quite well running the country, especially considering the set backs he's had to deal with - getting over the problems caused by the yellow shirt protests, and then dealing with the red shirt protests of 2009 AND 2010, and all during the global financial crisis.

Rather different to someone who rode on the coattails of a global economic boom, and was still unable to make any long term improvements ... except for his own bank balance, of course.

That bank balance grew to un-equaled levels.

.

[rixalex]

If the PTP wins and the military or the courts once again overturn the election the probablity of massive discontent in the country will increase.

Hopefully the PTP won't once again give the courts reason.

Edited to add: of course whybother is quite correct when he says the courts didn't overturn the election. More accurate to say that the decision of the courts did have a knock on effect on the shape of parliament. Don't blame the courts for that though. Unless of course you think that the courts should take into account public reaction to their decisions, as they did in Thaksin's asset concealment case.

Edited June 30, 2011 by rixalex

[Buchholz]

More Yingluck-isms....

While campaigning with her family in Min Buri District of Bangkok, Pheu Thai Party's prime ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra denied a secret meeting between a party member and the defense minister.

Yingluck Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai Party's Number One party-list MP candidate, accompanied by her family, has traveled to Min Buri District of Bangkok to help Wicharn Meechai-anant, a Pheu Thai candidate, campaign for the upcoming poll.

Yingluck denied a news report that Wattana Muangsuk, who is a Pheu Thai Party senior member has secretly met with Defense Minister general Prawit Wongsuwan in Brunai on behalf of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1045398

Selling their pawns down the river... so the Boss can return.

.

Edited June 30, 2011 by Scott
Fair use policy

[wolfmanjack]

says something about the Thai Electorate(if the opinion polls are correct) when a potential PM can go around with a pretty smile, not discuss her economic policies and gain support, makes me think Western Politicians are not so bad, they would never get away with it

She's been discussing her economic policies constantly. Less how she's going to pay for them though. Should Geriatrickid turn out to be right, and these programs can't be paid for, then it's surely the best thing Thaksin-haters can hope for - a PT government that fails in a big way, either by failing to deliver what they promised, or by bankrupting the country in the process of delivering them. It would certainly ruin Thaksin's reputation as a competent manager and economic guru. But people said TRT couldn't pay for their programs, yet the country ran budget surpluses for a couple of years and by the time the coup deposed Thaksin, the debt to GDP had declined from the 58% at the start of his first term, to 41%. Let's see.

TRT didn't pay for the 30 baht health care.

[themockrat]

"Unlike his sister, Thaksin can remember all the candidates' names.

That's a good sign, as most other reports about Thaksin clearly indicate that he is in fact a senile old man.

A senile 61 year old Thai would do a better job at running the country than a 46 year old Brit, don't you think?

I think the 46 yo Brit that you're referring to has done quite well running the country (...)

He's done an amazing job, of course. He has:

- Got Thailand out of the evil UNESCO

- Pushed Thailand to the brink of a war with Cambodia

- Still not found out who killed over 90 Thais last year.

- Wasted millions of Baht in a useless egg-by-weight scheme and...

- Tried to force poor vendors to buy expensive machines to make use of it

- Increased internet and news censorship

- Still hasn't convicted the yellow shirt leaders.

- Arrested red shirt leaders on terrorism charges but then let them all out on the streets again.

- Failed to solve the crisis in the South as he promised.

- Been accused by Amnesty International of torture (suffocation, electric shocks, forced nudity).

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone. In April 2011, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand warned that Abhisit's policies might cause public debt to surge past the legal debt ceiling of no more than 50% of GDP.

So, please ...can we have the senile 61 year old back now?

[Buchholz]

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone.

So, please ...can we have

a link to your uncorroborated assertion?

[themockrat]

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone.

So, please ...can we have

a link to your uncorroborated assertion?

MCOT News: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9681

[whybother]

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone.

So, please ...can we have

a link to your uncorroborated assertion?

MCOT News: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9681

Did you just pick out a random article on public debt? The article you quoted was from 2009, and has nothing about the "previous 26 PMs" or (funnily enough) data from 2011.

[noahvail]

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone.

So, please ...can we have

a link to your uncorroborated assertion?

MCOT News: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9681

You must have posted that link in error, since it's from April, 2009 "Business News : Last Update : 18:17:40 27 April 2009 (GMT+7:00)"

And it said that in one month (January-February) debt increased by 87 billion baht. But long-term debt was over 3 trillion baht - which we can attribute to prior PMs borrowings.

[themockrat]

On top of that, he's broken the record for "borrowing money". All previous 26 Thai PMs had a combined borrowing of 870 billion Baht. Abhisit alone, between 2009 to early 2011, has borrowed 1.49 TRILLION Baht alone.

So, please ...can we have

a link to your uncorroborated assertion?

MCOT News: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=9681

You must have posted that link in error, since it's from April, 2009 "Business News : Last Update : 18:17:40 27 April 2009 (GMT+7:00)"

And it said that in one month (January-February) debt increased by 87 billion baht. But long-term debt was over 3 trillion baht - which we can attribute to prior PMs borrowings.

Sorry, you're right. Wrong copy & paste. My bad.

The correct article can't be posted unfortunately, because it's in the newspaper that can't be mentioned or linked to here. Do a search on Google and you'll find it. Sorry for the inconvenience but blame it on the forum censorship here.

Edited June 30, 2011 by themockrat

[metisdead]

Sorry, you're right. Wrong copy & paste. My bad.

The correct article can't be posted unfortunately, because it's in the newspaper that can't be mentioned or linked to here. Do a search on Google and you'll find it. Sorry for the inconvenience but blame it on the forum censorship here.

As to why quoting or linking to Bangkok Post is not allowed; Thai Visa is bound by the law and unfortunately the Bangkok Post does not allow linking or quoting to their articles.

[whybother]

Sorry, you're right. Wrong copy & paste. My bad.

The correct article can't be posted unfortunately, because it's in the newspaper that can't be mentioned or linked to here. Do a search on Google and you'll find it. Sorry for the inconvenience but blame it on the forum censorship here.

You just didn't want to admit that you got the info straight out of wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia....Government_debt)

Abhisit borrowed heavily to finance his various populist policies and stimulus packages. The government borrowed a record-breaking 1.49 trillion baht from 2009 to early 2011, compared to the previous 26 Prime Ministers who had combined borrowings of only 870 billion baht. Thailand's national debt at the end of February 2011 was 3.59 trillion baht, or 40% of GDP.^[68]

The reference [68] links to the article you quoted ... but has no reference to figures, as has been pointed out.

edit: further searching finds that the actual statement was made by Mingkwan during the recent censure debate. (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/03/16/business/PM-Abhisit-blasted-for-massive-borrowing-soaring-p-30150997.html)

"Abhisit alone borrowed Bt1.49 trillion, compared with the past 26 prime ministers who had combined borrowings of only Bt870 billion," said Mingkwan, who is leading the opposition in grilling the government in the censure debate.

...

Abhisit countered that his government took office in 2008 amid a global financial crisis and faced many difficulties, so borrowing money was unavoidable. He pointed out that Thailand achieved a fast economic recovery, while several countries faced public-debt crises.Abhisit also pointed to the public-debt-to-GDP ratio in September 2006 when Thaksin Shinawatra was last prime minister.

While Thaksin was in office the ratio stood at 42.75 per cent, while in January this year public debts were down to 41.94 per cent of gross domestic product. The figures are not very different, Abhisit said. He said that last year the government earned the highest-ever export income and the largest-ever number of tourists visited the country.

Edited June 30, 2011 by whybother