US Nervous Ahead Of Thai Election

[webfact]

US nervous ahead of Thai election

by Shaun Tandon

WASHINGTON, June 30, 2011 (AFP) - The United States is nervously watching Sunday's election in Thailand, with policymakers worried it may set off new instability that diminishes the role of Washington's oldest Asian ally.

President Barack Obama's administration has made Southeast Asia a priority but has focused on building ties with Indonesia and former war foe Vietnam amid concern that Thailand is too absorbed in internal strife.

US officials are hoping Thailand's election will proceed smoothly and pave the way for reconciliation, but some fear for the worst -- particularly as the campaign has been dominated by divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, said in May that the United States wanted "very much to work more closely" with Thailand and that the election period would be "decisive" in setting the course of relations.

The United States has since reached out to both sides to encourage calm, with a US envoy meeting recently with opposition leader Yingluck Shinawatra -- the sister of Thaksin, who was deposed in a 2006 coup and now lives in exile.

But the United States has been careful not to interject itself directly in the election. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government protested last year when Campbell met members of the "Red Shirts" waging major street protests.

Foreign policy has not played a major role in the election. Most observers believe both the opposition, which enjoys support in rural areas, and Abhisit's establishment-backed Democrats want warm ties with the United States.

Thailand is one of Washington's oldest allies, famously offering elephants to President Abraham Lincoln to wage the Civil War. Thaksin closely assisted former US president George W. Bush in his global "war on terrorism."

"Thailand is friendly to the West -- and to pretty much everyone. But since the 2006 coup, Thai-US relations have been stuck in neutral and this has given an opportunity for Indonesia, Vietnam and others to step up to the plate," said Timothy Hamlin, a research analyst at the Stimson Center.

Hamlin said much of Thai diplomacy now consisted of explaining its complex domestic situation to an overseas audience.

"I think the ideal outcome from a foreign policy perspective would be peaceful elections, whichever party is a legitimate victor forms a government, and the foreign ministry can actually go back to normal diplomacy," he said.

But the outcome may not be so smooth -- and it remains to be seen how the United States would react if there were another intervention by the military, which sees itself as the guardian of the revered but ill king.

The United States suspended some $24 million in defense aid to Thailand after the 2006 coup, in line with US law that restricts aid to militaries that topple democratic governments. Washington resumed the assistance in early 2008.

The US response drew mixed views. Some friends of Thailand -- notably Congressman Eni Faleomavaega -- accused Washington of needlessly alienating a trusted ally, while many policymakers saw the aid cutoff as largely symbolic.

Joshua Kurlantzick, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, expected a tougher response if the Thai military attempted a new coup.

"It's just so anachronistic. This is not the Cold War; it's 2011. No middle-income emerging democracy has a coup," he said.

In a circular effect, the rise of other Southeast Asian nations lowered Thailand's strategic importance and made it easier for the United States to criticize developments in Bangkok, according to the analyst.

"Thailand has started to be grouped with states like Vietnam, while in the past it was grouped with fellow democracies in terms of how people are viewing them," he said.

Thailand has been seeking to address foreign concerns, with Abhisit last year deploying Thai forces as UN peacekeepers in Sudan. Thailand also benefits from a broadly positive image among the US public.

But conflict involving Thailand has also remained upfront. Street clashes last year between troops and Red Shirt protesters left 90 people dead, while at least 28 people died this year in border fighting with Cambodia.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-06-30

[JeffreyMcCollum]

Some how I really doubt America is worried or nervouse about the outcome. And really please, the only reason Thailand helps America with anything is because all the aid America gives to Thailand

[californiabeachboy]

I suspect the Americans are more nervous about whether The NFL strike will shorten the football (gridiron) season.

My neighbor, despite my extensive attempts at education, still does not know the difference between Taiwan and Thailand.

[ginjag]

Some how I really doubt America is worried or nervouse about the outcome. And really please, the only reason Thailand helps America with anything is because all the aid America gives to Thailand

The same as all those years ago when the banners used to go up on Beach / centre road Pattaya, saying WELCOME to the USA sixth fleet it wasn't they loved Americans it was then the money is in town.

It was a known fact that phones were used constantly pleading with the north east to send your sons and daughters down. The nervousness felt would also be because of a turn for undemocratic government emerging.

[SIAMBULL]

Some Americans are following the Thai election. Like moi.

The CFR is concerned that if their favorite son's sister is elected PM the military will kick her out like they did big bro.

Thus I'd call the USA gov't red for all the wrong reasons.

Our hopes are on the reds and that Yingluck will not be a total puppet of her big bro but will rise to some leadership just for a place in history. Yes I know a Shinawatra is likely only for Shinawatra but perhaps they can learn from Thaksin's mistakes. Lost a lot of family money acting the fool.

Thaksin home by Xmas if Yingluck carries Bangkok!

Edited June 30, 2011 by craigt3365
Corrected spelling of Thaksin

[Lancelot]

My hunch is that the US State Department is just going throught the motions.

Showing "concern" about the internal affairs of other sovereign nations is also useful to justify increased departmental budgets and importance. If Thailand suddenly became an internationaly respected, open, transparent, fair minded democracy subject to the rule of law and civilian control of the military, lots of nice folks in the massive US Embassy on Wireless road would be unemployed.

Hey, thats a thought

[Junglejumbo]

I think that this is quite a good article. Basically, Thailand has dropped behind and now classed a long with Vietnam and probably Cambodia, the latter which has an ever similar democratic style to Thailand. And if there's another coup it won't be long before Thailand's being compared with Burma. In the past Thailand was always seen as a rung or two above its neighbours which attracted investment and greater economic and infrastructure development. However, that's not the case today. Indonesia and the Philippines have strengthened their democracies despite no monachies and hungry armies. Thailand should especially learn from Indonesia which successfully overcame Suharto's core groups and the army although it took about 10 years to do so.

As for foreign aid, I don't think that the amount the US gives is signficant these days at all. In fact I suspect that the small amount of military aid is only a token gesture as well as permitting Kanchanaburi to be used as a practice ground once each year, and I suspect that this military aid is the only aid given.

[craigt3365]

One post corrected due to incorrect spelling of Thaksin. Please use the proper spelling or a warning will be issued.

[Steely Dan]

I'm not normally quick to listen to consiracy theories, but the CNN coverage of the redshirt riots was so clearly biased that I have to conclude the U.S is clearly batting for that side. The reasons why are not yet clear but I read this statement as a shot across the bows for the Thai army in case they plan to intervene if the election result or subsequent pardons policies are not to their liking.

[Nisa]

The US imported approx. $22 Billion worth of goods from Thailand last year and is on pace this year to export about $15+ Billion in goods to Thailand. The US Government also has more than $20 Billion invested in Thai business' as well as a long standing military partnership with the Thailand and conducts many joint military training programs throughout the year. Thailand is also an important partner to the US in terms of Muslim terrorists as well as considering its location around communist and less friendly US countries.

The US just simply wants to be seen dealing with a "perceived" elected government to prevent criticism from either side or internationally. Nothing will change regardless of what party wins unless the country moves to communism or there are significant civil problems and/or human rights violation .... I even doubt much would change except token sanctions if there was another bloodless coup.

Edited June 30, 2011 by Nisa

[moe666]

Some how I really doubt America is worried or nervouse about the outcome. And really please, the only reason Thailand helps America with anything is because all the aid America gives to Thailand

The same as all those years ago when the banners used to go up on Beach / centre road Pattaya, saying WELCOME to the USA sixth fleet it wasn't they loved Americans it was then the money is in town.

It was a known fact that phones were used constantly pleading with the north east to send your sons and daughters down. The nervousness felt would also be because of a turn for undemocratic government emerging.

You are one fleet off. The 7th fleet operates in the western pacific. The 6th fleet operates in the atlantic and places east of there.

[moe666]

I'm not normally quick to listen to consiracy theories, but the CNN coverage of the redshirt riots was so clearly biased that I have to conclude the U.S is clearly batting for that side. The reasons why are not yet clear but I read this statement as a shot across the bows for the Thai army in case they plan to intervene if the election result or subsequent pardons policies are not to their liking.

heheheeheh good one news to me that CNN makes foreign policy for the US

[rametindallas]

I suspect the Americans are more nervous about whether The NFL strike will shorten the football (gridiron) season.

My neighbor, despite my extensive attempts at education, still does not know the difference between Taiwan and Thailand.

+1

[cdnvic]

I removed a post and a quote of someone mocking loyalty to The King. Both posters have been removed.

[TongueThaied]

"Hamlin said much of Thai diplomacy now consisted of explaining its complex domestic situation to an overseas audience."

What a joke. The domestic political situation is so simple a two-year-old could understand it -- if he or she has the truth. The "complexity" is merely a product of the obfuscation used to hide the simple truth, which I am not at liberty discuss here.