Post-Election Scenario Has Investors Wary:

[Lite Beer]

OPINION: WATCHDOG

Post-election scenario has investors wary

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

A chaotic outcome is expected as a result of tomorrow's general election in which about 35 million Thais are expected to cast their votes.

The voter turnout is likely to be no less than the 74 per cent recorded in the last poll nearly four years ago.

According to Kasikornbank's research, investors should prepare for the worst outcome because political conflicts are unlikely to fade away regardless of which major party wins this election. A new round of political rallies will happen as soon as the conflict resumes. At this stage there are at least three sensitive issues facing the country.

First, there will be a heated debate whether the new Parliament should grant amnesty to 111 and 105 former party executives currently banned from directly engaging in political activities. Fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra is among these former politicians, and he has also been sentenced to a two-year jail-term for abuse of power. Pro-amnesty groups have suggested that such a move would represent a settlement of previous political conflicts. On the other hand, there will likely be fierce opposition from other groups to such a move, especially with regard to Thaksin's criminal cases. According to the research, it is possible there will be street protests against this plan if it is presented to the new Parliament.

Second, it is speculated that there could be extra-constitutional measures taken against the election outcome. Unless a single party wins more than 251 seats in the 500-member House, there could be military and judicial intervention. In addition, mass demonstrations will challenge any extra-constitutional move.

Third, the Thai-Cambodian conflict could also lead to mass demonstrations as the next government will have to make a crucial decision on the Preah Vihear Temple issue after Thailand expressed its intention to withdraw from the World Heritage Convention (WHC). An official withdrawal process will take about 12 months. There has already been heated debate on the pros and cons of WHC withdrawal after the caretaker Abhisit government expressed its support for the move.

The move followed Cambodia's push for endorsement of its management plan for the 4.9 square-kilometre area surrounding the Hindu temple on the border. It is claimed that endorsement of this Cambodian plan would compromise Thailand's sovereignty over its territory. In other words, this will be yet another hot potato for the next government, as it will have to decide whether it is going to resume negotiations or leave the conflict completely unresolved.

According to Kasikornbank, the Thai economy has become more resilient to political conflicts since the 2006 coup. The volatility of the stock index and baht are often great during periods before and after political events such as elections and demonstrations, but price fluctuations appear to return to their average trend shortly afterwards. Foreign capital flows, in the meantime, are expected to return when the new government is formed.

However, there have been some longer-lasting economic consequences. For example, foreign investors have lowered their investment weight in Thailand for fear of political turmoil that could interrupt business. Given smaller inflows of direct investment, investors are likely to import fewer capital goods. Declining imports due to declining investment have fuelled a larger current account surplus. The unfavourable effect of declining FDI and local investment has resulted in a reduction of technological transfers.

In the end, this will erode the country's international competitiveness in manufacturing and other sectors, according to the research.

-- The Nation 2011-07-02

[robertson468]

Not to mention the damage done to the Tourist Trade. Baton down the hatches folks, there are troubled waters ahead!

[Misterwhisper]

I could sum up this whole article in one short sentence: Whatever the outcome of the election, we will be screwed.

[OzMick]

" Unless a single party wins more than 251 seats in the 500-member House, there could be military and judicial intervention. In addition, mass demonstrations will challenge any extra-constitutional move."

What a convoluted piece of idiocy! firstly, there may well be judicial intervention whether or not any part gains an absolute majority. Secondly, judicial intervention is NOT extra-constitutional, but ensuring the election laws are followed.

Given that k.Thaksin has hardly tried to hide the fact that he is heavily involved with PTP's campaign despite a 5 year ban, and the level of vote-buying being carried out, judicial intervention is more than likely.

Mass demonstration has already been threatened if any court decision goes against PTP, because k Thaksin's propagandists have been preaching for years that this is undemocratic. It is a pity that so many uneducated thais believe this, and unbelievable that so many supposedly educated TV posters do so as well.

[animatic]

And well might they worry,

there are so many ways for this to go very, very badly.

[geriatrickid]

Foreign investment was down by approx. 30% last year and that was in large part due to world economic conditions. The driving force in SE Asia will be China. As it slowly pulls back from the economic basket case that the USA is turning into it will need to park its investments somewhere. One of those places will be SE Asia. Yes, some of the western investors will be scared off. They will be replaced by Indians and Chinese who are not concerned with such things as employment equity,environmental standards. or laws forbidding bribery and kickbacks. As long as they Chinese and Indians have the cash, they will be welcome to do whatever they want. Myanmar's problems didn't stop the Indian and Chinese investments did they? Western companies that have invested in plant and equipment cannot just up and leave. They will remain.

The scaling back of foreign investment has been in the cards for some of the countries for quite some time. Ever since the quake and tsunami in Japan, Japanese foreign investment activity has been in question since the Japanese government and private sector will not have the funds. The USA is cash strapped and won't be able to support US companies, nor will many EU countries be capable of subsidizing the development projects that purchased EU manufactured goods. Thailand's population is plateauing and that means the consumer demand for many of the manufactured goods will plateau as well. If the population isn't there, there is no point in building a consumer goods factory .

The issue isn't political stability as much as it is energy supply and water resources. Thailand has to solve its energy supply issue, otherwise all the political tranquility and happy smiling workers won't matter. The country needs energy to fuel those manufacturing facilities and at the present time doesn't have the capability to sustain over the long term large scale manufacturing investments. As fuel prices soar, the cost of transporting the manufactured goods from the asian factories will increase too. It is one of the reasons why there has been a slight change in the North American market away from Asian imports. Toss in the strengthening of Asian currencies against the $US and Euro and it's another strike against exports. Thailand is a food exporter and is dependent upon water resources. As the Chinese dam rivers and disrupt water sheds it will be felt in Thailand. When the crop yields fall, that's the time to panic.

[rubl]

I could sum up this whole article in one short sentence: Whatever the outcome of the election, we will be screwed.

There is a distinct possibility that the outcome of the elections will not be close to the peace, harmony and tranquility we are envisioning as such; or in other words 'we'll be screwed"

[hellodolly]

I could sum up this whole article in one short sentence: Whatever the outcome of the election, we will be screwed.

There is a distinct possibility that the outcome of the elections will not be close to the peace, harmony and tranquility we are envisioning as such; or in other words 'we'll be screwed"

Being a ex pat myself I fail to see where we as ex pats will be screwed.

I believe that there will be a period of disharmony but in the long run Thailand will right its self and move forward.

There is a good chance that it will be given a opportunity to see that it needs some one as PM who is allowed in the country. A lot of wild idiotic promises made and as they fail to appear Thai's will start to see where they have been had.

Can hardly wait to see all the credit cards handed out like candy to people who don't qualify for them in a sane world.

On the other hand It will not change if the same government wins. There opposition will continue to try and stop them from improving Thailand.

It is a sad day when a major party has no interest in the country.

[jombom]

If we take some time out to do the maths, 35 million people are expected to cast their votes. So, 50% is 17.5 million people, and enough for a majority.

Now, the word from the countryside is that 300 baht per vote is the going rate. That's approx 10 USD.

Ergo, the clear implication is, that power can be purchased for 175 million USD.

Moving along swiftly, a certain person, recently residing in Montenegro and Dubai, is reported to be out of pocket to the tune of 45 Billion baht, or 1500 million USD, to keep the maths simple and easy to understand.

That could be called a risk/reward ratio or something like that. --- either 1/6 or 6 to 1.

What I would like to know, is how can Farangs buy a ''part of the action''

[EnhancePlus]

If we take some time out to do the maths, 35 million people are expected to cast their votes. So, 50% is 17.5 million people, and enough for a majority.

Now, the word from the countryside is that 300 baht per vote is the going rate. That's approx 10 USD.

Ergo, the clear implication is, that power can be purchased for 175 million USD.

Moving along swiftly, a certain person, recently residing in Montenegro and Dubai, is reported to be out of pocket to the tune of 45 Billion baht, or 1500 million USD, to keep the maths simple and easy to understand.

That could be called a risk/reward ratio or something like that. --- either 1/6 or 6 to 1.

What I would like to know, is how can Farangs buy a ''part of the action''

Invest in Thaksin corporations

[el jefe]

If we take some time out to do the maths, 35 million people are expected to cast their votes. So, 50% is 17.5 million people, and enough for a majority.

Now, the word from the countryside is that 300 baht per vote is the going rate. That's approx 10 USD.

Ergo, the clear implication is, that power can be purchased for 175 million USD.

Moving along swiftly, a certain person, recently residing in Montenegro and Dubai, is reported to be out of pocket to the tune of 45 Billion baht, or 1500 million USD, to keep the maths simple and easy to understand.

That could be called a risk/reward ratio or something like that. --- either 1/6 or 6 to 1.

What I would like to know, is how can Farangs buy a ''part of the action''

i think you need to take a little more time to do the math.

how does 175/1500 = 1/6 or 6 to 1??

[jombom]

If we take some time out to do the maths, 35 million people are expected to cast their votes. So, 50% is 17.5 million people, and enough for a majority.

Now, the word from the countryside is that 300 baht per vote is the going rate. That's approx 10 USD.

Ergo, the clear implication is, that power can be purchased for 175 million USD.

Moving along swiftly, a certain person, recently residing in Montenegro and Dubai, is reported to be out of pocket to the tune of 45 Billion baht, or 1500 million USD, to keep the maths simple and easy to understand.

That could be called a risk/reward ratio or something like that. --- either 1/6 or 6 to 1.

What I would like to know, is how can Farangs buy a ''part of the action''

i think you need to take a little more time to do the math.

how does 175/1500 = 1/6 or 6 to 1??

You are correct , of course. I had made an arbitrary adjustment for the expense of making the project a reality. Money is the oil in the machine concept. Even 2 to 1 would do me nicely -- we don't want to be greedy, do we??

[phupaman]

If we take some time out to do the maths, 35 million people are expected to cast their votes. So, 50% is 17.5 million people, and enough for a majority.

Now, the word from the countryside is that 300 baht per vote is the going rate. That's approx 10 USD.

Ergo, the clear implication is, that power can be purchased for 175 million USD.

Moving along swiftly, a certain person, recently residing in Montenegro and Dubai, is reported to be out of pocket to the tune of 45 Billion baht, or 1500 million USD, to keep the maths simple and easy to understand.

That could be called a risk/reward ratio or something like that. --- either 1/6 or 6 to 1.

What I would like to know, is how can Farangs buy a ''part of the action''

i think you need to take a little more time to do the math.

how does 175/1500 = 1/6 or 6 to 1??

You are correct , of course. I had made an arbitrary adjustment for the expense of making the project a reality. Money is the oil in the machine concept. Even 2 to 1 would do me nicely -- we don't want to be greedy, do we??

[phupaman]

Hi All.

Going off topic a little bit ,can any of the members who follow the politics more than I do post a list of PT promises to the electorate, I will make a start if you can add to the list ,,,,,please do.

Laptop Computer,for every student,

300 baht per day minimum wage,

Credit Card for all Farmers.

20,oooBaht per tonne for rice

I am sure there is a lot more but I cannot remember, Please add to the list as i would like to see just how many PT promises come true.

[kmj]

Hi All.

Going off topic a little bit ,can any of the members who follow the politics more than I do post a list of PT promises to the electorate, I will make a start if you can add to the list ,,,,,please do.

Laptop Computer,for every student,

300 baht per day minimum wage,

Credit Card for all Farmers.

20,oooBaht per tonne for rice

I am sure there is a lot more but I cannot remember, Please add to the list as i would like to see just how many PT promises come true.

YAWN... really this is the best way you can railroad this thread...if you want a list go start your own thread.

Edited July 4, 2011 by kmj

[whybother]

YAWN... really this is the best way you can railroad this thread...if you want a list go start your own thread.

Actually, it's not railroading the thread. It's exactly what the thread is about.

Investors are interested in the costs or benefits of election promises, and also the effects on the country if certain promises are implemented.

[whybother]

Hi All.

Going off topic a little bit ,can any of the members who follow the politics more than I do post a list of PT promises to the electorate, I will make a start if you can add to the list ,,,,,please do.

Laptop Computer,for every student,

300 baht per day minimum wage,

Credit Card for all Farmers.

20,oooBaht per tonne for rice

I am sure there is a lot more but I cannot remember, Please add to the list as i would like to see just how many PT promises come true.

Actually, it's only a tablet computer and it's only for every grade 1 student.

300 baht per day minimum wage.

15,000 baht per month minimum for graduates.

Credit cards for farmers AND taxi drivers.

20,000 baht per tonne of rice (the Cambodians will love that, because they can smuggle rice in and sell it for more than twice the price as they get for it in Cambodia.)

High speed trains around the country.

10 commuter lines in Bangkok.

There was talk of an reclaimed island in the gulf somewhere.

And Amnesty for corrupt politicians (although apparently that's not a priority.)

[Who, me ?]

Hi All.

Going off topic a little bit ,can any of the members who follow the politics more than I do post a list of PT promises to the electorate, I will make a start if you can add to the list ,,,,,please do.

Laptop Computer,for every student,

300 baht per day minimum wage,

Credit Card for all Farmers.

20,oooBaht per tonne for rice

I am sure there is a lot more but I cannot remember, Please add to the list as i would like to see just how many PT promises come true.

Actually, it's only a tablet computer and it's only for every grade 1 student.

300 baht per day minimum wage.

15,000 baht per month minimum for graduates.

Credit cards for farmers AND taxi drivers.

20,000 baht per tonne of rice (the Cambodians will love that, because they can smuggle rice in and sell it for more than twice the price as they get for it in Cambodia.)

High speed trains around the country.

10 commuter lines in Bangkok.

There was talk of an reclaimed island in the gulf somewhere.

And Amnesty for corrupt politicians (although apparently that's not a priority.)

1,000 Baht cash handout for elderly....

Good thing imo, but how will it work?

[whybother]

Actually, it's only a tablet computer and it's only for every grade 1 student.

300 baht per day minimum wage.

15,000 baht per month minimum for graduates.

Credit cards for farmers AND taxi drivers.

20,000 baht per tonne of rice (the Cambodians will love that, because they can smuggle rice in and sell it for more than twice the price as they get for it in Cambodia.)

High speed trains around the country.

10 commuter lines in Bangkok.

There was talk of an reclaimed island in the gulf somewhere.

And Amnesty for corrupt politicians (although apparently that's not a priority.)

1,000 Baht cash handout for elderly....

Good thing imo, but how will it work?

Is it a once off handout or an ongoing "pension"?

[RPCVguy]

Foreign investment was down by approx. 30% last year and that was in large part due to world economic conditions. The driving force in SE Asia will be China. As it slowly pulls back from the economic basket case that the USA is turning into it will need to park its investments somewhere. One of those places will be SE Asia. Yes, some of the western investors will be scared off. They will be replaced by Indians and Chinese who are not concerned with such things as employment equity,environmental standards. or laws forbidding bribery and kickbacks. As long as they Chinese and Indians have the cash, they will be welcome to do whatever they want. Myanmar's problems didn't stop the Indian and Chinese investments did they? Western companies that have invested in plant and equipment cannot just up and leave. They will remain.

The scaling back of foreign investment has been in the cards for some of the countries for quite some time. Ever since the quake and tsunami in Japan, Japanese foreign investment activity has been in question since the Japanese government and private sector will not have the funds. The USA is cash strapped and won't be able to support US companies, nor will many EU countries be capable of subsidizing the development projects that purchased EU manufactured goods. Thailand's population is plateauing and that means the consumer demand for many of the manufactured goods will plateau as well. If the population isn't there, there is no point in building a consumer goods factory .

The issue isn't political stability as much as it is energy supply and water resources. Thailand has to solve its energy supply issue, otherwise all the political tranquility and happy smiling workers won't matter. The country needs energy to fuel those manufacturing facilities and at the present time doesn't have the capability to sustain over the long term large scale manufacturing investments. As fuel prices soar, the cost of transporting the manufactured goods from the asian factories will increase too. It is one of the reasons why there has been a slight change in the North American market away from Asian imports. Toss in the strengthening of Asian currencies against the $US and Euro and it's another strike against exports. Thailand is a food exporter and is dependent upon water resources. As the Chinese dam rivers and disrupt water sheds it will be felt in Thailand. When the crop yields fall, that's the time to panic.

Solid analysis of the investment issues. Thanks

On the initial article I already see news reports calling for EC investigations on vote buying... and want to ask:

Considering the size of the margins in the north and north-east regions, who would stand to gain in buying votes for PT?

... and I've heard of people being paid as well to vote blue - all rumors of many levels of separation.

To this election addict of the west, the answer is likely a game of muddying issues so as to have insurance...

Though the majority of clean votes cast aside will generate more resentment if that is what unfolds.

Is the letter of the law in written to assure that change can always be voided?

I for one would like to see peace restored. yet I suspect that the economic issues of energy, water and food will be tough for whomever is allowed to govern.

If so, the election after that will have the opportunity for opposition candidates to argue for policies they'd recommend instead. Such vacillations are what happen when democracies are allowed to have elections matter.

[kmj]

YAWN... really this is the best way you can railroad this thread...if you want a list go start your own thread.

Actually, it's not railroading the thread. It's exactly what the thread is about.

Investors are interested in the costs or benefits of election promises, and also the effects on the country if certain promises are implemented.

and there's me reading the article as "At this stage there are at least three sensitive issues facing the country."