Other Factors In Thai Democrats Defeat: Pundits

[webfact]

Other factors in Democrats defeat: pundits

By PRAVIT ROJANAPHRUK

THE NATION

A day after Pheu Thai's strong election victory, academics who have been studying the party's red-shirt supporters say there's more to the victory than the Thaksin Shinawatra factor.

Thammasat political scientist Prajak Kongkirati said a good number of voters who cast ballots for Pheu Thai were not fans of Thaksin or Yingluck. Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy and instability caused by repeated interference by the Army and the so-called powers outside the electoral system.

And business people, Prajak said, felt there was a need for political stability and this could not be achieved if forces outside the democratic system kept interfering. So these concerned people quite likely voted for Pheu Thai on Sunday.

"Even some who liked the Democrat Party felt things couldn't go on like this," he said.

Sirote Klampaiboon, a Mahidol University lecturer in politics and human rights, and a close observer of the red-shirts, said although many were fans of Thaksin, people who voted for Pheu Thai, or the Democrats, were more diverse than most might think. He attributed the Democrats' loss to weaknesses of the party and traditional allies like the yellow-shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who split from the Democrats.

"They failed to create political appeal comparable to Pheu Thai," he said. But he noted that the stability of the Pheu Thai government could not be taken for granted as its opponents were still powerful and definitely a force to be reckoned with.

Self-proclaimed red-shirt political scientist Kengkij Kitirianglarp, from Kasetsart University, told The Nation he wasn't surprised by the Democrats' loss since the party has never won a majority in its long history. But what made things worse for the Democrats was a belief that in the current political and economic crisis, voters felt compelled to make a decisive choice - to support one of the two major parties, as no other parties could offer a coherent policy platform.

Kengkij was concerned that many middle class and well-off people continue to hold on to the "myth" that rural and urban poor voters were dumb and unable to make intelligent electoral choices and the fact this would lead to more social conflict.

He said such thinking may not be accidental but part of a way to justify continued domination by the elite over the rest of the society, especially the working class and rural poor.

"Thailand is not alone. We see examples in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines. In the Philippines, farmers fighting the [communist] revolutionary war were portrayed as alien, threatening and uneducated - as naive people who have been fooled [to fight] and do not have independent consciousness of their own. This myth is intentionally constructed," Kengkij said.

Prajak also sees the gap in understanding between the poor and middle class/elite as serious.

"This is the cause of political instability. It's a long-term issue and a challenge to preservation of the democratic system. The middle class and elites have to change their view. Come election time, every voter makes a rational choice. Although logic applied may differ from that of the middle class or elites, it doesn't mean the poor are stupid or irrational. One of the most problematic groups is academics who say northeasterners and northerners are under the sway of money and patronage. It means they don't understand how the rural areas have changed."

Given the growing clout of the poor rural and urban electorates, who constitute the majority of voters, Sirote is more concerned about whether or not those on both ends of the economic and political divides can tolerate the other without resorting to the use of state power of their respective government to crush the other. He reckoned that both sides should try to recognise that difference is not something alien in a democratic society.

-- The Nation 2011-07-05

[geriatrickid]

Well, I wonder what TVF's resident purveyors of doom & gllom and negativity will say to this? Let's see the reasons they come up with to counter OP. I'm sure someone will throw in something that includes one of the following;

1. The PTP bribed all those wealthy educated voters that picked PTP.

2. Thaksin cast a magical spell over the Democrats causing them to splinter into factions.

3. The Thais that voted PTP are uneducated idiots with dirty fingernails that didn't know better (Can't have a response without someone insulting and ridiculing the Thai people can we?);

4. It was a conspiracy underwritten and orchestrated by international conspirators. i.e. The Bilderberg Group, the "Illuminati", Freemasons, The Pope,etc.

And sooner or later someone will raise Hitler. Can't have a thread without a reference to the der Fuhrer.

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

[LevelHead]

Well, I wonder what TVF's resident purveyors of doom & gllom and negativity will say to this? Let's see the reasons they come up with to counter OP. I'm sure someone will throw in something that includes one of the following;

1. The PTP bribed all those wealthy educated voters that picked PTP.

2. Thaksin cast a magical spell over the Democrats causing them to splinter into factions.

3. The Thais that voted PTP are uneducated idiots with dirty fingernails that didn't know better (Can't have a response without someone insulting and ridiculing the Thai people can we?);

4. It was a conspiracy underwritten and orchestrated by international conspirators. i.e. The Bilderberg Group, the "Illuminati", Freemasons, The Pope,etc.

And sooner or later someone will raise Hitler. Can't have a thread without a reference to the der Fuhrer.

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

The totally not neutral "The Nation" should go the way of the BJT party.

Totally embarrassed and hopefully soon to be dissolved and gone forever.

The Nation, ASTV and all those other Yellow propaganda machines need to be eliminated for the sake of the country.

[noahvail]

Godwin's law in the first post on a thread. I don't think I've seen that on TV before.

[eezergood]

Well, I wonder what TVF's resident purveyors of doom & gllom and negativity will say to this? Let's see the reasons they come up with to counter OP. I'm sure someone will throw in something that includes one of the following;

1. The PTP bribed all those wealthy educated voters that picked PTP.

2. Thaksin cast a magical spell over the Democrats causing them to splinter into factions.

3. The Thais that voted PTP are uneducated idiots with dirty fingernails that didn't know better (Can't have a response without someone insulting and ridiculing the Thai people can we?);

4. It was a conspiracy underwritten and orchestrated by international conspirators. i.e. The Bilderberg Group, the "Illuminati", Freemasons, The Pope,etc.

And sooner or later someone will raise Hitler. Can't have a thread without a reference to the der Fuhrer.

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

I knew it! I bl@@dy knew it! Just Bilderberg are at it again!

or could it be that Yingluck is simply more pleasing, aesthetically and vocally, to the easily placated masees (KUAI) ??

[OzMick]

The OP represents the opinions of one admitted red shirt, and one "close observer." It should be read with this in mind, as with the second.

Edited July 5, 2011 by OzMick

[whybother]

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

Didn't you just say in another thread how biased the Nation was?

[whybother]

Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy

That's a good thing for the Democrats.

PTP are going to struggle with the economy, given their promised wage rises, rising fuel prices, and the general doom and gloom in the global economy.

[cdnvic]

One post was removed because it contained a very serious unsubstantiated allegation. Please post only what you can support. Conspiracy theories will be deleted.

[eezergood]

Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy

That's a good thing for the Democrats.

PTP are going to struggle with the economy, given their promised wage rises, rising fuel prices, and the general doom and gloom in the global economy.

INDEED!!! WHO is going to pay for this??? am sure MR S aint!

[whybother]

The totally not neutral "The Nation" should go the way of the BJT party.

Totally embarrassed and hopefully soon to be dissolved and gone forever.

The Nation, ASTV and all those other Yellow propaganda machines need to be eliminated for the sake of the country.

Yay for Red Democracy.

Eliminate all opposing media.

[kuffki]

the only problem i can see with democrats is their silence and rather an "easy' approach to the elections.

I really am unsure why Democrats did not attack the "useless" and "impossible" policy's proposed by PTP.

For example, their promise of wage rise, but that would also mean price increase

Promise of tax cuts, but where would the supplement income for the government come from?

I feel Democrats should of been more active and loud in promoting its achievements and explaining PTP unrealistic promises.

[eezergood]

the only problem i can see with democrats is their silence and rather an "easy' approach to the elections.

I really am unsure why Democrats did not attack the "useless" and "impossible" policy's proposed by PTP.

For example, their promise of wage rise, but that would also mean price increase

Promise of tax cuts, but where would the supplement income for the government come from?

I feel Democrats should of been more active and loud in promoting its achievements and explaining PTP unrealistic promises.

As a seasoned cynic, perhaps after all the rehtoric spouted that indeed were the intentions? OK you guys want PTP, then here you go..........

[NALAK]

from speaking to many Thais who were going to vote for Thaskin they would have considered the Democrats had Suthep not been pulling the stings. many tv sattare shows had Abhisit Vejjajiva as a puppet with Suthep being the puppet master. he should have got rid of him after he had to resign as representative in his own province. Abhisit was not seen as his own man mearly the deliverer of Sutheps words.

[geriatrickid]

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

Didn't you just say in another thread how biased the Nation was?

Please read closely. I wrote trying to reposition , as in attempting to create the perception, and neutral was in quotation marks, indicating that I was doubtful of that neutrality. Trust that clears up the confusion.

Please carry on.

Edited July 5, 2011 by geriatrickid

[Somrak]

3. The Thais that voted PTP are uneducated idiots

Why not?

[hammered]

Awful campaign. Inability to adjust to modern marketing, soundbiting and PR by a party that is too stuck in the old traditional ways, cant change, doesnt listen to those outside its diaspora and is not popular in two major regions and appears to be run by Bangkok patricians and southern powerbrokers. The Democrat party will remain uncompetetive until it resolves these issues. The natural reaction of any traditional Thai party to Abhisit's resignation will be to invite him back. The big test is do they do that and compound every error or do they start to move on, which will mean breaking the internal power structures

[hyperdimension]

Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy

What are their criticisms of Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy? Why do they think Pheu Thai would do a better job?

I think they simply remember the good old days when Thaksin was leading the country during a world economic boom led by USA. Look at the performance of the S&P 500 (aggregate index of top 500 stocks in USA) from 2003 to 2006:

The financial markets in the USA leads most of the markets in other countries. People around the world felt wealthy, including Thais. Everyone spent well (too much in hindsight, particularly in America), including tourists visiting Thailand. Thais who do not follow world financial markets may have thought that it was Thaksin himself who brought about those euphoric economic times in Thailand, which would be a strong reason to why they want him back.

Now look at the chart above during the time when Abhisit was Prime Minister (2008 to now). You can see that it has been a much rougher ride in the financial markets, with people worldwide losing much of their wealth in the crash that began in late 2007. When people feel less wealthy they travel less and spend less. If you couple this with geopolitical turmoil which affects oil prices (and thus consumer prices), plus internal political turmoil aggravated by Thaksin, UDD and his hired lobbyists like Amsterdam & Peroff (Robert Amsterdam Thailand), Barbour Griffith & Rogers,

Kobre & Kim, Baker Botts, and Daniel J. Edelman, then you can see that it has been much tougher for Abhisit and Korn to steer the Thai ship.

The rise in the markets in USA that you can see from 2009 onwards is widely seen as a "fake" rally that has been fueled by a flood of liquidity (creation or "printing" of new money) from central banks, not by real increased productivity. Real economic conditions are still quite poor in USA and Europe, and that has affected (and is still affecting) the rest of the world, including Thailand; no country is completely immune from the problems of USA and Europe, including even isolated countries like Myanmar who receive aid via NGOs.

Do most average rural Thai folk understand this? It is more likely that they simply blame recent tough times on Abhisit. Pheu Thai / UDD undoubtedly would not want to correct such views and more likely have fostered them for their own benefit.

Edited July 5, 2011 by hyperdimension

[hyperdimension]

Inability to adjust to modern marketing, soundbiting and PR

I think Thaksin and his team of hired lobbyists have been strategically planning and engineering this win for years.

It's a sad fact that the masses are uneducated and ignorant and can therefore be easily manipulated by attractive marketing and PR tailored for them (i.e. propaganda that attacks Abhisit and portrays Thaksin as a hero of democracy, and promises of goodies like tablet PCs). Thaksin and his team have known this and have exploited it with precision.

Promises like improving GDP would go in one ear and out the other of the simple rural folk. Abhisit has overestimated the intellectual capacity of the majority of Thai people.

Edited July 5, 2011 by hyperdimension

[kuffki]

Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy

What are their criticisms of Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy? Why do they think Pheu Thai would do a better job?

I think they simply remember the good old days when Thaksin was leading the country during a world economic boom led by USA. Look at the performance of the S&P 500 (aggregate index of top 500 stocks in USA) from 2003 to 2006:

The financial markets in the USA leads most of the markets in other countries. People around the world felt wealthy, including Thais. Everyone spent well (too much in hindsight, particularly in America), including tourists visiting Thailand. Thais who do not follow world financial markets may have thought that it was Thaksin himself who brought about those euphoric economic times in Thailand, which would be a strong reason to why they want him back.

Now look at the chart above during the time when Abhisit was Prime Minister (2008 to now). You can see that it has been a much rougher ride in the financial markets, with people worldwide losing much of their wealth in the crash that began in late 2007. When people feel less wealthy they travel less and spend less. If you couple this with geopolitical turmoil which affects oil prices (and thus consumer prices), plus internal political turmoil aggravated by Thaksin, UDD and his hired lobbyists like Amsterdam & Peroff (Robert Amsterdam Thailand), Barbour Griffith & Rogers,

Kobre & Kim, Baker Botts, and Daniel J. Edelman, then you can see that it has been much tougher for Abhisit and Korn to steer the Thai ship.

The rise in the markets in USA that you can see from 2009 onwards is widely seen as a "fake" rally that has been fueled by a flood of liquidity (creation or "printing" of new money) from central banks, not by real increased productivity. Real economic conditions are still quite poor in USA and Europe, and that has affected (and is still affecting) the rest of the world, including Thailand; no country is completely immune from the problems of USA and Europe, including even isolated countries like Myanmar who receive aid via NGOs.

Do most average rural Thai folk understand this? It is more likely that they simply blame recent tough times on Abhisit. Pheu Thai / UDD undoubtedly would not want to correct such views and more likely have fostered them for their own benefit.

You nailed it.

Not even average folks do not understand this but the majority do not ,because to understand one need to study little economics and economic cycles.

[Skywalker69]

Many were disappointed by Abhisit Vejjajiva's handling of the economy

That's a good thing for the Democrats.

PTP are going to struggle with the economy, given their promised wage rises, rising fuel prices, and the general doom and gloom in the global economy.

Especially since Khun T prommised that everybody will be rich in 6 months.

[Crushdepth]

Well, I wonder what TVF's resident purveyors of doom & gllom and negativity will say to this? Let's see the reasons they come up with to counter OP. I'm sure someone will throw in something that includes one of the following;

1. The PTP bribed all those wealthy educated voters that picked PTP.

2. Thaksin cast a magical spell over the Democrats causing them to splinter into factions.

3. The Thais that voted PTP are uneducated idiots with dirty fingernails that didn't know better (Can't have a response without someone insulting and ridiculing the Thai people can we?);

4. It was a conspiracy underwritten and orchestrated by international conspirators. i.e. The Bilderberg Group, the "Illuminati", Freemasons, The Pope,etc.

And sooner or later someone will raise Hitler. Can't have a thread without a reference to the der Fuhrer.

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

Do you deny that PTP engaged in rampant vote buying? If you truly believe that, I can conclude you have no Thai friends.

[Skywalker69]

Inability to adjust to modern marketing, soundbiting and PR

I think Thaksin and his team of hired lobbyists have been strategically planning and engineering this win for years.

It's a sad fact that the masses are uneducated and ignorant and can therefore be easily manipulated by attractive marketing and PR tailored for them (i.e. propaganda that attacks Abhisit and portrays Thaksin as a hero of democracy, and promises of goodies like tablet PCs). Thaksin and his team have known this and have exploited it with precision.

Promises like improving GDP would go in one ear and out the other of the simple rural folk. Abhisit has overestimated the intellectual capacity of the majority of Thai people.

If PTP is to fulfil all it´s promisess Thailand will soon end up longside Greece, just wait and see.

[MegaRanter]

The democrats had no direction or destination, just powerful backers.

At least with PT, I know its eithergoing to be better better or crash burn and start afresh. I hate going in circles.

[Jingthing]

Who stopped them from moving forward for Thailand exactly? Seems to me it was mostly the reds who were harassing Abhisit from day one, to the extreme levels of directly threatening his life and throwing blood on his house.

[Bagwan]

The first few paragraphs of the Op seemed to me to be saying that people voted PTP since they were the only party that could keep the Army in check - and their grasping hands out of politics. That is not an argument that I will take onboard.

If my reading is correct than we shall see if the academics have got that right. I'd prefer it if these overeducated boffins limited their activities to matters inside their universities - like the length of students skirts and the tight fitting of their blouses.

[DP25]

A big factor in PTP victory, 6 million fewer people voted. PTP didn't increase the number of people voting for them over the last election, just less people voted so their percent was higher. Vote split was also a huge factor, that mainly benefits PTP. In many of the districts PTP won, the 2nd and 3rd place parties received significantly more votes. If you don't want to vote the Thakin party, it is a guessing game in some places as to which you should be voting for. In places the 2 allied parties even lost to PTP, when they had more voters but were split. You'd think they would have worked that out before hand. A lot of the seats that PTP won are very shaky, even some in the NE.

It's also interesting how utterly dominate regionalism continues to be. Regional differences put the red/blue divide in the US to shame. Democrats literally getting 10 times as many votes as the nearest competitor in some southern districts, and PTP doing the same thing in parts of Isaan. It is clear that rural vs elite is a complete fiction.

[DP25]

Now that the Nation is trying to reposition itself as a "neutral" news organization, it is nice that it is finally cluing in to what was observed months ago and that foreign media was reporting on.

The author of this article has been writing red shirt opinion pieces in The Nation week after week for a long time. And every time one of them is posted, people in this forum as shocked that The Nation would print something like this.