Six Booby Traps Waiting To Blow A Hole In Yingluck's Government

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME

Six booby traps waiting to blow a hole in Yingluck's government

By Tulsathit Taptim

Every fairy tale has to end with an inauguration ceremony of some kind.

The simple reason why is that all hell usually breaks loose afterwards. To Yingluck Shinawatra, the Election Commission has presented either the final obstacle to what is seen by some as a romantic political journey, or the first real glimpse of what lies beyond the shower of flowers, cheers and adulation from her supporters.

Yesterday's belated endorsement by the EC shattered the slight possibility that the inauguration might collapse and she might be mercifully spared all the menace knocking on the prime ministerial door. Already, her Pheu Thai Party is admitting that a "big mess" awaits Thailand's first female leader, and, for all its tendency to exaggerate, this one is a spot-on assessment. Where Pheu Thai is possibly wrong is the assumption that the looming misery is something exclusively left behind by the Democrats.

Whether Abhisit Vejjajiva's party is to be blamed, or the "big mess" originated from somewhere else, a floodgate of serious problems is set to open sooner rather than later. Dealing with them will not be easy, but first she will have to prioritise them, which is equally difficult.

Here's my little bit to help. It is not a "Dos and Don'ts" list. Some problems will definitely come whether she courts them or not. It's just the way things are after a fairy tale. This severity ranking, which, of course, is subjected to possible changes, is my thought on what Yingluck should be afraid, or very afraid, of:

Wealth declaration. This is by no means a Democrat mess. Yingluck said a lot during Thaksin's assets trial and she could now get entangled in her own words. One may get away with millions of baht, or even tens of millions of baht, that went missing between then and now, but hundreds of millions of baht would be hard to ignore and easy to trace. If she said she owned something back then, she could be asked where that something is now. One mistake and she could be accused of perjury or indicted for filing a false assets report.

Severity rating: 8

The Cabinet landmines. How many red shirts will be ministers? How to choose a new chief of defence that won't send the over-sensitive Thai military ballistic? How can she avoid, or conceal, Thaksin's fingerprints in the Cabinet set-up? Who should be the foreign minister, with so many hot potatoes waiting?

Good news is, a Cabinet can always be formed against all odds. Bad news is, when a government becomes weak immediately, this is when seeds of instability are irretrievably planted.

Severity rating: 7

The amnesty death trap. Yingluck can't get enough warnings over this. Even some of her moderate supporters have begun to agree that any attempt to absolve Thaksin Shinawatra, no matter how well and seemingly fairly it is plotted, will shove the new government to the brink.

In an interview aired by TPBS on Monday night, Thaksin was asked why he couldn't just "do a Nelson Mandela" and get it over with. He reiterated he would never spend a single day in jail for a crime he said he did not commit. The impasse, therefore, remains, but that doesn't mean Yingluck has to bridge it. She will have to resist the strong urge and pressure to absolve him, though.

Severity rating: 9

The impossible promises. So much fuss has been made about the "impracticality" of Pheu Thai's economic and welfare pledges, like Thais have never been lied to. Truth is, "It's all about Thaksin, stupid". As long as Yingluck doesn't touch the amnesty, she can go on breaking her election promises all day and the most she'll lose is her face, not her job.

Severity rating: 3

The black Cambodian comedy. Good news is, the yellow shirts are virtually blaming the outgoing Abhisit government for everything related to our eastern neighbour. Bad news is, the Democrat leader never hugged Hun Sen so passionately and spent quality time with the Phnom Penh head's innermost circle.

More good news is, the Democrat leader never hugged Hun Sen so passionately and spent quality time with the Phnom Penh head's innermost circle. (Yes, you read it right. All I'm saying is "the hug" can either be good for Yingluck, or blow up in her face if things go seriously wrong between the two countries).

Latest signs from the International Court of Justice suggest it is too diplomatic to embarrass either country, and at least a year will pass before the ICJ "clarifies" its 1962 Preah Vihear Temple verdict.

But Veera Somkwamkid and Ratree Pipattanapaiboon remain in Cambodian jail and doubts remain over whether they will accept Thaksin's helping hand.

All in all, there will be occasional excitement, but nothing that smart diplomacy can't handle. As long as the Yingluck government doesn't give Cambodia a lucrative something, like a gas concession, while conceding Thai border "sovereignty", that is.

Severity rating: 6

The Thaksin big bang. This is last but not least. Contacts with the man when Pheu Thai was in opposition were one thing, but flying to see him, having him phone in, or letting him publicly dispense advice to the government from now on could trigger a catastrophe.

Yingluck and many Pheu Thai members will be "state officials" in a few days and Thaksin remains a fugitive convict. Every law requires her to find his whereabouts or seek his arrest, and her opponents will take full advantage of that. They will keep their radar on around the clock, not for whether she will fulfil that obligation, but for whether she or other government officials are keeping in contact with him.

Fair or unfair, this is potentially a nuke that could blow the new government away. All it'll take to detonate is a wayward Cabinet member found in Dubai or Brunei or a loose-tongued justice minister who announces "I talked to him last night."

Severity rating: 10

-- The Nation 2011-07-20

[hellodolly]

Definitely contact and taking advice from Thaksin are a no no.

As long as she was a private citizen that was OK.

She now is the PM of Thailand and it is her duty to if possible capture him and imprison him.

The new thing she must learn is that now Thailand and it's law's are her number one concern not family.

[Who, me ?]

Hellodolly

I really can't wait to see what her position is on this specific point. I am convinced that there will be NO attempt to locate the brother, as they already know where he is.... There will be NO attempt to go after him and to bring him to Thailand, to serve his sentence, as he himself claimed that he did nothing wrong and will not serve any time in jail. And as he is the one who will decide what to do, and tell it through his sister's mouth, we can easily know what it's going to be like..........

[MunterHunter]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

[jonclark]

Hellodolly

I really can't wait to see what her position is on this specific point. I am convinced that there will be NO attempt to locate the brother, as they already know where he is.... There will be NO attempt to go after him and to bring him to Thailand, to serve his sentence, as he himself claimed that he did nothing wrong and will not serve any time in jail. And as he is the one who will decide what to do, and tell it through his sister's mouth, we can easily know what it's going to be like..........

Of course there will be no attempt to contact him directly. The strategy will be to change the constitution, grant an amnesty, and then speak to him. Thats a lot of effort for a single Thai citizen in terms of governmental time, effort and money. I just hope the other 60+million receive similar efforts from the government to alleviate their problems, such a chronic poverty and a protracted war in the south.

Edit: oops sorry my mistake, they (PTP) have already back peddled furiously over the 300 baht wage increase, so that's' the chronic poverty sorted !!

Edited July 20, 2011 by jonclark

[scorecard]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

Agree, given time this will become a huge entanglement and when she tries to go in any direction she'll be tripped up by the paymasters and pts own past actions, and statements.

e.g. Every time she makes statement about upholding the rule of law, equal justice etc etc., she will be bombarded with flack about her own family and more. And when she tries to make the next statement on the same subject she'll just entrap herself even deeper.

[tomahawk]

Even though it would seem to be political suicide for PM to contact Thaksin or take advice from him, this is Thailand and in current situation I do not think anything much would happen to her if she contacts Thaksin openly. The majority voted for her and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand. Democrats would make a big fuss if govt. has involvement with Thaksin, but I believe nothing much will happen to PM if she does this, which personally I believe someday this will happen.

[MunterHunter]

Even though it would seem to be political suicide for PM to contact Thaksin or take advice from him, this is Thailand and in current situation I do not think anything much would happen to her if she contacts Thaksin openly. The majority voted for her and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand. Democrats would make a big fuss if govt. has involvement with Thaksin, but I believe nothing much will happen to PM if she does this, which personally I believe someday this will happen.

The supreme court may take a different view, they are the second highest authority in the land and have the power to destroy both of them, I'm sure they will be fed plenty of information and have cases raised on a regular basis, sooner or later they will have enough evidence to bring the hammer down on them...

And that's nothing to do with Pro/anti Thaksin, PTP, Democrats, Red or Yellow shirts...

[hyperdimension]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

Edited July 20, 2011 by hyperdimension

[SpoliaOpima]

[KKvampire]

Yingluck Shinawatras duty is to uphold the law and court decisions on Criminals Home or Overseas, FAT CHANCE ,

Severity Rating 0 or 10 , pay your bribe take your choice,

[Samuian]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

Taken!

[changraider]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

Could you let us know where you're getting yr figures from: the official figures are - Pheu Thai won 265 seats out of 500 - a clear majority; I haven't seen any published figures for overall votes, but in most of the provinces the PT vote was overwhelming - 90% plus, whereas in BKK the winning margin was much lower - only a few hundred seats in many constituencies.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

I should imagine that many Thais were also voting on principle gainst a government installed without the will of the people following a military coup.

[looping]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

Taken!

Agree, they live by greed and it will be their undoing. I wait to see how 'suwaii' Yingluck will look after a couple of years in the Thaksin washing machine, and how 'narak' she will be after she's been chewed up and spat out by the system. Just another pawn in the game which Thaksin calls monopoly.

[hammered]

Most Thai people I have listened to since the election, and few of them vote for PTP, are in the immediate future more worried about how the establishment extra-parliamentary players who can pull strings will react and what problems that will cause the country. Im not surprised that so many people are looking at what the EC does or how heavily they have been criticized even by groups normally as on the other side to PTP. There is definitely little support across the spectrum among the public for any meddling in the result that is beyond very clear evidence that all can see.

[RedNIvar]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

I would think that in a political sense, majority would refer to the party that won by virtue of its larger representation and/or electoral strength. Which in both cases here would be PTP.

Summary of the 3 July 2011 House of Representatives of Thailand Thai general election results

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2011

Edited July 20, 2011 by RedNIvar

[lazurus]

Even though it would seem to be political suicide for PM to contact Thaksin or take advice from him, this is Thailand and in current situation I do not think anything much would happen to her if she contacts Thaksin openly. The majority voted for her and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand. Democrats would make a big fuss if govt. has involvement with Thaksin, but I believe nothing much will happen to PM if she does this, which personally I believe someday this will happen.

You don't have to worry about Thaksin giving advice to the new government, he'll be running it. Yingluck won't be able to do anything without his permission, she's only his clone.

[alant]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

one would hope that Thailand could learn from those established democracies who know better and insist that to win you must have a majority

[kumsamut]

she got more votes than the other party period.

[rixalex]

Most Thai people I have listened to since the election, and few of them vote for PTP, are in the immediate future more worried about how the establishment extra-parliamentary players who can pull strings will react and what problems that will cause the country. Im not surprised that so many people are looking at what the EC does or how heavily they have been criticized even by groups normally as on the other side to PTP. There is definitely little support across the spectrum among the public for any meddling in the result that is beyond very clear evidence that all can see.

The view you keep putting forward and you seem to support, seems to me to go a long way beyond a reasonable desire simply that there is no meddling; it seems to extend to: if any law-breaking has occurred on the red/PTP side, it's better if right now we turn a blind eye to it because this side already perceives that it has been hard done by and any decision that goes against them now, with the extra power and weight of the electoral mandate they now possess, will potentially provoke a very ugly reaction.

I understand this view, but i believe it is one born out of fear above all else. It's all about succumbing, about giving in. The last three years of red orchestrated chaos has made people think: yes they may have broken the law, but they have the numbers, better to lie down, shut your eyes and let them get on with it. How sad. That's not respecting democracy, that's giving up believing in the rule of law.

[Cuchulainn]

.....The new thing she must learn is that now Thailand and it's law's are her number one concern not family.

A Shinawatra putting the country before the family? Yes, of course.

LOOK OUT!!!! a pig flying over a blue moon!!

[hyperdimension]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

one would hope that Thailand could learn from those established democracies who know better and insist that to win you must have a majority

There is a difference between having more than 50% of votes and having more than 50% of seats in the House of Representatives. With Pheu Thai it's the latter but not the former.

[letitbe]

Even though it would seem to be political suicide for PM to contact Thaksin or take advice from him, this is Thailand and in current situation I do not think anything much would happen to her if she contacts Thaksin openly. The majority voted for her and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand. Democrats would make a big fuss if govt. has involvement with Thaksin, but I believe nothing much will happen to PM if she does this, which personally I believe someday this will happen.

Taksin will be cleared im 100% sure of it. He will return by year end. Yinglik will not be PM in 1 year or less and only thing debatable is weather they will return the billions he stole from Thailand and which was confiscated. The end result in next 3-10 years will either be a Taksin 1 party state A civil war or a coup. No other result is likely.

[Orac]

The crucial decision for PTP/Yingluck is who gets appointed to the Defence Minister position - if she can get the military on side she will be in much stronger position to deal with any of the other issues she is faced with.

[a99az]

Definitely contact and taking advice from Thaksin are a no no.

As long as she was a private citizen that was OK.

She now is the PM of Thailand and it is her duty to if possible capture him and imprison him.

The new thing she must learn is that now Thailand and it's law's are her number one concern not family.

How it should be, not how it is. We are in real time so .....

[landofthefree]

Definitely contact and taking advice from Thaksin are a no no.

As long as she was a private citizen that was OK.

She now is the PM of Thailand and it is her duty to if possible capture him and imprison him.

The new thing she must learn is that now Thailand and it's law's are her number one concern not family.

Or she could do like the democrats did and rewrite the constitution, let off the criminals that carried out the coup and rewrite the laws to serve their own selfish interests.

[newtronbom]

Yingluck is a very intelligent lady, who I believe has a ton of ability. She does not however, have any political experience at all. We are talking about a very wealthy, very confident and self assured person, who would have made her way in the world without her brother Taksin anyway. I have to wonder, taking all these things into account, just how long she will dance to her brothers tune, or be his "puppet" if that is what she is. Remember. Thai ladies can be quite a force to contend with, especially given this ones wealth and upbringing. How long she will have to prove herself and gain experience is the big question. She obviously has some fools in the party around her - many of the "pre-election promises" could only have been made by fools - but she also has some well experienced capable people with her too. It remains to be seen, just how successful or how capable her party will be. The argument about an "elected official" of the government - her or any other - talking directly to Taksin, thereby breaking the law etc. is a good one. Just how the Thai people, the voters, handle that, will be very interesting indeed! As will the question of whether or not it will bring down this newly elected party. Thai people can be very sabai sabai, mai pen rai on many things, yet react very strongly to others. I don't think it will be too long before we see the results either. Interesting times ahead for sure. I live here, so I sincerely hope this won't damage the country.

[hammered]

Definitely contact and taking advice from Thaksin are a no no.

As long as she was a private citizen that was OK.

She now is the PM of Thailand and it is her duty to if possible capture him and imprison him.

The new thing she must learn is that now Thailand and it's law's are her number one concern not family.

Actually law enforcement is nothing to do with parliament or government. Thats for courts and law enforcement officials. Parliament passes laws for courts to act on, or undoes, replaces or ammends old ones. Yinglucks duty if she becomes head of the executive will be to govern Thailand. It is better if people do their respective jobs.

[mijan24]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

I believe this will be the situation and it was not until post23 someone mentioned a coup (the military) I do not believe they will sit by and let Thaksin to return and take over - how much egg would be on their face??

Lets hope it does not happen and that all goes well for the new PM.

[craigt3365]

In another development, Plodprasop said a group of Pheu Thai MPs will on July 26 attend the birthday party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the planned trip was private without linkage to the party.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/484210-pheu-thai-prodding-ec-to-endorse-red-shirts/