Dora weakening off Mexico's Baja California, expected to dissipate soon

Dora weakening off Mexico's Baja California, expected to dissipate soon

2011-07-24 13:07:04 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Dora weakened further on Saturday and is expected to dissipate soon as it moves along the coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, forecasters said.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since June 16 when it emerged as a low pressure system off the coast of Costa Rica. It developed into a tropical storm last Monday, a hurricane on Tuesday, and then rapidly strengthened into a category four storm.

As of 8 p.m. PDT on Saturday (0300 GMT Sunday), the center of Dora was located about 225 miles (360 kilometers) west of Cabo San Lucas, a city at the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. It is moving towards the northwest at a speed of about 12 miles (19 kilometers) per hour.

With maximum sustained winds near 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour on late Saturday, Dora is now a tropical storm after weakening quickly since Thursday afternoon when it was nearly a category five hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity.

"The [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)] aircraft investigating Dora this evening found peak flight-level winds of 53 knots (60 miles / 98 kilometers) after the previous advisory was released, but nothing at the surface any higher than previously observed," said NHC Branch Chief James Franklin. "Since that time, the deep convection has diminished and the low-level circulation has become partly exposed."

"Based on the organization trends since the time of the aircraft mission, the advisory intensity is lowered to 40 knots (46 miles / 74 kilometers)," Franklin added. "With the cyclone over 23 degrees Celsius (73 degrees Fahrenheit) and heading for even colder water, a continued spin down is forecast."

Franklin said Dora is expected to stay far enough from land while it continues to weaken and eventually dissipate, although some models show a possible turn toward the coast in the next few days. "But even if that should happen there will be very little left of Dora but some low-level moisture," Franklin said.

Dora is the fourth named storm and was the second major hurricane of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season following Hurricane Calvin which formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico earlier this month. As both Dora and Calvin stayed far away from land, none of them caused damage or casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.

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