Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico, heads for Texas

[News_Editor]

Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico, heads for Texas

2011-07-28 16:39:10 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Don formed over the southern Gulf of Mexico on late Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said, prompting tropical storm watches for large parts of the Texas coastline.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since July 21 when it emerged as a tropical wave about 750 miles (1200 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands, producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. It slowly became better organized over the past week.

As of 4 a.m. CDT (0900 GMT) on Thursday, the center of Don was located about 590 miles (945 kilometers) east-southeast of Brownsville, a city in Cameron County, Texas. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed near 10 miles (17 kilometers) per hour.

"An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical wave over the Southern Gulf of Mexico found a closed surface circulation with a central pressure of 1001 MB," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven on Wednesday. "Based on this, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Don."

On Thursday morning, Don's maximum sustained winds were near 40 miles (65 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts. "The intensity forecast is tricky. While the large-scale environment does not appear to have much shear, the low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned initially," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown, explaining much strengthening is unlikely. But "another factor to consider is that the size of Don makes it susceptible to rapid changes in strength, both up and down, that are nearly impossible to forecast."

Forecasts show that Don is likely to make landfall in Texas on early Saturday morning, prompting a tropical storm watch from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to west of San Luis Pass. It could also affect some parts of the Mexican provinces of Coahuila, Nuevo Leonm and Tamaulipas.

"The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 knots," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila. "The ridge over the southern United States controlling the current motion of Don is expected to persist or even build westward a little. Therefore, no significant change in the steering pattern is expected, and Don should continue to move on the same general west-northwest or northwest track toward the Texas coast."

Don is the fourth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Cindy which formed in the open central Atlantic earlier this month. The storm stayed far away from land, therefore causing no damage or casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 12 to 18 named storms, with six to ten becoming hurricanes and three to six expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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